Author Topic: Canada-USA trade war.  (Read 23884 times)

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Offline Thucydides

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #300 on: August 09, 2018, 12:38:05 »
Mexico and the United States seem to be closing in on a deal. If Canada continues to sit on the sidelines, then the negotiating position might be reduced to agreeing or disagreeing with a done deal.

https://www.recorder.ca/news/world/mexico-and-u-s-appear-close-to-deal-on-key-auto-content-rules-as-canada-remains-on-nafta-sidelines/wcm/86e7ec96-4023-4f6e-8651-aee562212534

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Mexico and U.S. appear close to deal on key auto content rules, as Canada remains on NAFTA sidelines
The two countries were to meet again on Thursday, again without Canada, while Canadian officials met in Ottawa Wednesday to plot out their strategy
Tom Blackwell
Published on: August 8, 2018 | Last Updated: August 9, 2018 12:19 PM EDT

With Canada remaining on the NAFTA sidelines for a third straight week, the U.S. and Mexico met for more trade talks Wednesday, and appeared close to a deal on the key issue of where car parts come from and how much the workers who make them are paid.

They are expected to turn next to a potentially thornier issue, U.S. demands for a sunset clause in NAFTA requiring it to be re-approved every five years.

Canada, Mexico and even some Republican members of Congress are strongly opposed, saying an automatic, five-year reset on the deal would spawn uncertainty and deter potential investment.

But details of what is happening behind closed doors came largely from second-hand accounts of the talks Thursday. As the Mexican delegation left the offices of the U.S. Trade Representative, virtually next door to the White House, they were uncharacteristically closed-mouth about the start of two days of talks.

The parties had been working through outstanding items, Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said.

Could they reach a deal on automobile rules of origin by the end of the week? he was asked.

“Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” Guajardo said, using a stock phrase meaning the updated NAFTA has to be approved as a package, not not in pieces.

Jesus Seade, the trade negotiator representing Mexico’s new president elect, stayed quiet as the delegation strode away, reporters trailing behind.

It is unclear why they refused to talk about the nearly two-hour meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, though sources say the low-profile Lighthizer has been irritated in the past by impromptu press conferences held by his counterparts after such sessions.

The two countries were to meet again on Thursday, again without Canada, while Canadian officials met in Ottawa Wednesday to plot out their strategy for when they are invited back to the table. That could happen as early as next week.

Two American sources who have received briefings on the talks — but are not authorized to talk about what they know on the record — confirmed Thursday there seems to be progress on key American demands about what goes into cars that enter the U.S. duty free under NAFTA.

Those requests by the U.S. are meant to counter the administration’s view that too much of what’s made under NAFTA is out-sourced to low-wage destinations, robbing Americans of good jobs.

Mexico seems to have tentatively agreed to the U.S. demands that 75 per cent of auto content be made in North America, and that 40-45 per cent, depending on the type of vehicle, be made by workers earning at least $16 an hour, said one source.

Some of the discussion now is on determining the tariff that would be applied to products — mostly made by European car manufacturers — that don’t meet those thresholds, said the person.

But there is a big caveat to that agreement, the source said. In exchange, Mexico wants the U.S. to at least water down its demand for a sunset clause, as well as take off the table both its proposal to scrap state-to-state dispute resolution, and to impose tariffs on some Mexican produce.

And none of it means anything in terms of a new NAFTA agreement unless the northern partner signs on as well, says another source familiar with the auto-related negotiations.

“Clearly, the Canadians need to be heard from tout suite, though I do not expect them to balk at this proposal,” said the person. “They should like this … (But) if they don’t agree to the full final deal, these auto (rules of origin) would be for naught — the premise is North American content and Canada would be left out.”

Canadian officials have suggested there is nothing unusual about the long stretch of bilateral negotiations excluding them, and are happy the other two countries have made progress.

But Lighthizer told U.S. senators recently that he hoped to strike a deal with Mexico soon, then use that as leverage to win “compromises” from Canada that have not been forthcoming to date.

Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Xylric

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #301 on: August 09, 2018, 14:37:38 »
Speaking on the dairy issue, I care less about the supply dynamics and more about the quality standards - the US uses an entirely different set of rules than we do, and the last time I was in the US, I got sick from milk which by their standards was perfectly safe to drink.

Online tomahawk6

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #302 on: August 09, 2018, 15:47:04 »
I don't drink milk after its buy date but I have had food poisoning from my local Chinese restraint and once from McDonalds when they were selling pulled pork.

Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #303 on: August 09, 2018, 15:54:27 »
Speaking on the dairy issue, I care less about the supply dynamics and more about the quality standards - the US uses an entirely different set of rules than we do, and the last time I was in the US, I got sick from milk which by their standards was perfectly safe to drink.

Xylric: Sorry for your experience but I think that there may be something else going on there other than different standards.    I think I am reasonably safe in saying that US and Canadian standards are broadly the same - despite different state and provincial interpretations.  Most jurisdictions have ties to the original standards promulgated in Oregon and all use the same time-temperature relations for pasteurization (161 F for 16 secs) with higher temperatures and shorter times for Extended Shelf Life and UHT milks.  I could be wrong but I have been working with food and dairy plants on both sides of the line for about 40 years.  Generally speaking there are some niggling differences between the US and Canada on standards, just enough to make life difficult, but nothing that I would classify as remotely being a health risk.  And I have fed my family on both sides of the border as well - just as I have in Europe.  In none of those places did I feel the need to eat anything other than what the locals eat. 

But there again I am not into specialized diets.

The equipment and equipment standards are virtually the same around the world. 

Again, I'm sorry for your experience - but I would suggest the risk is the same within and between provinces as it is within and between states and countries.
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Offline Xylric

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #304 on: August 09, 2018, 15:56:47 »
Well, it *was* part of a batch that was recalled, I later found out - after returning to Canada. Thankfully no lasting impact on my health.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 16:00:01 by Xylric »

Offline recceguy

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #305 on: August 11, 2018, 13:07:00 »
A quick search of the FDA Recall/ Withdrawl site shows far and away, the biggest problem with recalls is in the adulterated milk products. Almond milk, soy milk, chocolate milk, etc. Regular pasteurized milk, not so much. Probably comparable to Canada's.
Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #306 on: August 11, 2018, 13:31:13 »
Well, it *was* part of a batch that was recalled, I later found out - after returning to Canada. Thankfully no lasting impact on my health.

Glad to hear that.
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #307 on: August 12, 2018, 13:22:26 »
I hate to say "I told you so", but the predictions upthread about Mexico or any coalition of nations opposing the United States or coming on side for Canada have proven to be false. The Saudi Arabia fiasco is another, parallel example of how Canada is not "back", but simply irrelevant. The long term effect will not be good for Canada.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4382233/donald-trump-trade-deal-canada-mexico/

Quote
Donald Trump: ‘Canada must wait’ on trade deal, but Mexican one is coming nicely
Jessica Vomiero By Jessica Vomiero
National Online Journalist    Global News

Canada would have to wait on a trade deal due to “tariffs and trade barriers” but the U.S. is making progress with Mexico, President Donald Trump tweeted Friday night.

“Deal with Mexico is coming along nicely. Autoworkers and farmers must be taken care of or there will be no deal. New President of Mexico has been an absolute gentleman,” read the tweet.

Deal with Mexico is coming along nicely. Autoworkers and farmers must be taken care of or there will be no deal. New President of Mexico has been an absolute gentleman. Canada must wait. Their Tariffs and Trade Barriers are far too high. Will tax cars if we can’t make a deal!


— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 10, 2018
Trump appeared to be referring to efforts to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada in his tweet from his golf club in Bedminster, N.J.

He added that any deal with Mexico must take care of American autoworkers and farmers, but he praised the new Mexican president, calling him “an absolute gentleman.”

“Canada must wait. Their Tariffs and Trade Barriers are far too high. Will tax cars if we can’t make a deal!” the president continued, likely referencing the trade spat between Canada and the U.S. that resulted in new tariffs being placed on American imports to the Great White North in July.

Trump went on to warn that he would tax Canadian auto exports if Washington and Ottawa could not arrive at a deal.

READ MORE: Canadian exports hit record high in June but U.S. tariffs on metals slashed steel, aluminum shipments

The Trump administration angered the Canadian government after its decision to place tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel exports earlier this year, despite protests from both within the GOP and among Democrats.

In response, Canadian officials announced “dollar for dollar” retaliatory tariffs, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called them at the time, to the tune of over C$16 billion in U.S. imports.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline recceguy

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #308 on: August 12, 2018, 13:59:02 »
 :Tin-Foil-Hat: Anyone think that maybe, given Trudeau's globalist agenda, he and Butts are ruining Canada on purpose? :Tin-Foil-Hat:
Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #309 on: August 12, 2018, 15:31:13 »
No.
+600
"Overall it appears that much of the apparent complexity of modern war stems in practice from the self-imposed complexity of modern HQs" LCol J.P. Storr

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #310 on: August 12, 2018, 16:40:48 »
:Tin-Foil-Hat: Anyone think that maybe, given Trudeau's globalist agenda, he and Butts are ruining Canada on purpose? :Tin-Foil-Hat:

I think the real issue is the bubble surrounding the Laurentian Elites has not been sufficiently breached by the events of the outside world yet. While people scurrying around in various cubical farms in Ottawa may sincerely believe GBA+ is the lens through which the world needs to be engaged, they are totally unprepared to face resurgent nationalism from America, poo-poo the idea of a Brexit, haven't the slightest clue why the AfD, Movimento 5 Stelle or Viktor Orban are being elected/rising in the polls in Europe. Their total lack of urgency in dealing with the collapse of NAFTA, or even not holding special sessions in Parliament to rapidly implement CETA/TPP or look for alternatives to NAFTA, and they way they were blind sided by Saudi Arabia certainly doesn't speak to their readiness to govern either.

No, the major effort of the Liberals has always been to massage their image and find ways to appeal to various "tribes" of Canadian voters in an effort to remain electable and capable of supplying pork to their crony's and rent seekers.

In 2019 they will run against President Trump and likely win based on appeals to Canada's inherent Anti-Americanism, and we will be reaping the negative consequences likely out to 2028.
+300
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline recceguy

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #311 on: August 12, 2018, 19:59:48 »
No.

Speaking for everyone? Or just yourself.
Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #312 on: August 12, 2018, 21:13:16 »
Lol.  Why would you assume I spoke for anyone else?
"Overall it appears that much of the apparent complexity of modern war stems in practice from the self-imposed complexity of modern HQs" LCol J.P. Storr

Offline recceguy

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #313 on: August 13, 2018, 00:20:48 »
Lol.  Why would you assume I spoke for anyone else?
Yeah, about 20 min later, I looked again and it didn't make sense. I was going to pull it down and went full on senior. Phone rang, I had a guy wanting to clean ducts I don't have.  While I'm trying to get rid of this guy when I see my postal guy walking down my steps, I  go check my box. Open my door there's a notice saying he tried to deliver, with a time, 20 min later. Caught the prick and got my package. Fell asleep reading the instruction book and when I got back, you'd already responded. Me culpa. You can clean it if you want. :salute:
Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #314 on: August 13, 2018, 14:24:32 »
More detail on how America and Mexico are doing an end run around Canada:

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/08/10/nafta-update-president-trump-notes-progress-with-mexico-on-bilateral-trade-preparing-different-bilat-terms-for-canada/

Quote
NAFTA Update: President Trump Notes Progress With Mexico on Bilateral Trade – Preparing Different BiLat Terms For Canada…
Posted on August 10, 2018   by sundance    
 
Canada is FUBAR. No-one quite knows how FUBAR Canada is, because no-one has  followed the brilliant Wolverine crew closely enough to spot the strategy.

At the strategic direction of President Trump; and it is a really brilliant workaround strategy; the U.S. and Mexican teams are approaching the current NAFTA negotiations from a position of bilateral trade.   Trade watchers, Wall Street experts, financial pundits and the entire media apparatus are missing what Team USA are doing right in front of their faces…. they’ve obviously never followed or studied Trump’s out of the box problem solving when it comes to complex deals.

I won’t rehash the NAFTA flaws; familiar CTH readers know them well.  However, the bottom line is NAFTA is NOT, repeat N.O.T being renegotiated. I was going to remain silent, but I think it’s safe, Lighthizer is close enough to a deal to explain what’s happening.

The problems with NAFTA are systemic; and there is too much political and multinational lobbyist conniving/scheming; and too many political interests are connected to the current NAFTA.  Everyone thinks Trump is renegotiating NAFTA; that’s just what Team Wolverine want everyone to think… that allows the team maneuvering space.

After the end of Round #6 (January 2018), it was obvious to POTUS Trump a NAFTA renegotiated deal was impossible.  In March, 2018, Team Trump stealthily began moving in a different direction.  In June,2018, Canada accidentally made the admission there were no ongoing talks between the U.S. and Canada.  The reasoning is simple.

Without drawing any attention to the shift, Trump put NAFTA in the corner and began an entirely new bilateral trade discussion with Mexico. [Forgetaboudit… just leave NAFTA over there; but let people think what we are doing is NAFTA]

Instead of following customary sequential steps: (1) waiting for endless NAFTA negotiations that can never be resolved; (2) and then announcing NAFTA withdrawal; (3) and then dealing with the political and financial backlash; (4) and then beginning bilateral trade discussions, etc. etc.  Team Trump brilliantly and quietly strategized an end-around.

Team U.S.A. reversed the sequencing (but didn’t announce it).
1.Negotiate the Mexico bilateral.
2.Announce the Mexican bilateral agreement.
3.Offer Canada a bilateral (slightly different terms).
4.Announce the Canadian bilateral agreement.
5.Dissolve NAFTA.

Instead of beginning new trade deals with NAFTA being ended, they end the new trade deals with NAFTA being ended.

Ergo, no political backlash and no political influence. By the time anyone realizes NAFTA is dead – it’s moot.  No formal exit strategy is needed because new deals are already on the books.

See the play?

Everyone thinks NAFTA is being renegotiated, it isn’t.

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that the United States and Mexico were making progress on a trade deal, and warned Canada he would tax their auto exports if an agreement cannot be reached with Ottawa.

“Deal with Mexico is coming along nicely. Autoworkers and farmers must be taken care of or there will be no deal. New President of Mexico has been an absolute gentleman,” Trump said on Twitter.

“Canada must wait. Their Tariffs and Trade Barriers are far too high. Will tax cars if we can’t make a deal!” he said. (read more)
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #315 on: August 13, 2018, 19:57:20 »
More self inflicted pain on the Canadian economy. At this rate, a turnaround in 2028 is starting to look optimistic.....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-backtracks-on-a-carbon-tax-1534110070

Quote
Canada Backtracks on a Carbon Tax
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals try to stop a stampede of capital out of the country.
By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
Aug. 12, 2018 5:41 p.m. ET
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government announced last month it will reduce a carbon tax on industry that is set to go into effect next year. The reason for the backtrack has to do with climate change, but not the kind associated with global warming.

Mr. Trudeau is reacting to shifting political winds stirred by Canada’s investment climate, which has turned stone cold. He faces an election in October 2019, and Liberals will have trouble winning unless investors warm to Canada as a destination for capital again. The question is whether the scaling back of the carbon tax is too little, too late.

The initial carbon-tax proposal, which takes effect next year, promised to levy companies on 30% of their emissions at 10 Canadian dollars (US$7.66) a metric ton, rising to C$50 a metric ton in 2022. The revision now sets the taxable emissions at 20%. The Journal’s Paul Vieira reported from Ottawa on Aug. 1 that “government officials are prepared to tinker further with the carbon-pricing regime should domestic industrial sectors bring evidence demonstrating ‘[heightened] competitiveness risks’ due to developments in the global marketplace.”

Canada’s ability to attract capital suffered a setback when oil prices fell hard in 2015. Under Mr. Trudeau, who took office in November of that year, it hasn’t caught up. In an April 13 blog post, Jason Clemens and Niels Veldhuis of the Vancouver-based Fraser Institute noted that Canadian foreign direct investment amounted to C$31.5 billion in 2017, down 56% from C$71.5 billion in 2013. The authors added: “Since peaking in the fourth quarter of 2014, total business investment adjusted for inflation—excluding residential housing—is down almost 17.0 percent. Private-sector investment in factories and other structures is down 23.3 percent. And investment in intellectual property is down 13.3 percent.”

The causes of this capital strike seem to be taxes and regulation, as more than one business leader has noted. Suncor Energy CEO Steve Williams said in February that his company is “having to look at Canada quite hard. The cumulative impact of regulation and higher taxation than other jurisdictions is making Canada a more difficult jurisdiction to allocate capital in.”

For prospective investors, the business climate in Canada is naturally compared with that of the U.S. Recent U.S. tax cuts, including accelerated depreciation, and President Trump’s deregulation push, are increasing the pressure on Canada to step up. In an April interview with the Canadian Press, Royal Bank of Canada president and CEO Dave McKay described the competitiveness problem behind what he called “significant” capital flight and called on the government to address it. “If we don’t keep the capital here, we can’t keep the people here—and these changes are important to bring human capital and financial capital together in one place,” he said.

The new carbon tax is only one of the green policies hurting Canada’s competitiveness. Ontario has long been the nation’s manufacturing hub. But in 2005 the province began phasing out the use of coal for electricity generation, and in 2009 it passed the Green Energy Act, designed to force industry and consumers into renewable energy. The net effect has been skyrocketing electricity prices in the province and declining manufacturing output.


A May 8 paper by Fraser analysts Elmira Aliakbari and Ashley Stedman titled “The Cost of Pipeline Constraints in Canada” blames “environmental and regulatory impediments as well as political opposition” for delays in the expansion of the nation’s pipeline infrastructure. This has depressed prices for Canadian heavy crude, creating a drag on growth, the authors show. Energy company Kinder Morgan recently sold its assets in the Trans Mountain pipeline to the Canadian government because of continuing opposition to its completion by British Columbia and others.

Elsewhere in Canada there has been aggressive pushback against the federal carbon tax. Ontario, under new political management since June, and Saskatchewan have gone to court to challenge the federal government’s authority to impose the tax. Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Manitoba have their own proposals to price carbon and are all on record against a federal take.

In Alberta, where the economy depends heavily on pumping oil, the United Conservative Party’s Jason Kenney is the favorite to win next year’s election for provincial premier. He has promised to oppose the Trudeau tax. He says he will keep a provincial carbon tax but limit it to “major emitters.”

Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna said last week that the Trudeau government wants “to have the most energy efficient, smart industries here that create good jobs, at the same time do what we need to do to tackle emissions.” But Liberals may soon find out that as one of the world’s foremost energy producers, Canada can’t have it both ways.

Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Good2Golf

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #316 on: August 14, 2018, 14:15:34 »
More detail on how America and Mexico are doing an end run around Canada:

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/08/10/nafta-update-president-trump-notes-progress-with-mexico-on-bilateral-trade-preparing-different-bilat-terms-for-canada/

This analysis of "Team Wolverine" plans, fails on points 3 and 4, as there already exists a bilateral free-trade agreement that reverts effectiveness upon dissolution of NAFTA:

Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (eff. Oct 4, 1987, superseded by NAFTA Jan 1, 1989).

I'll wait just a wee bit longer before I hop on the "Yup, Canada is totally screwed over by the US and Mexico" bandwagon.

:pop:

Regards
G2G


Offline recceguy

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Re: Canada-USA trade war.
« Reply #317 on: August 14, 2018, 20:25:28 »


I'll wait just a wee bit longer before I hop on the "Yup, Canada is totally screwed over by the US and Mexico" bandwagon.

:pop:

Regards
G2G

And right now, it's our own fault. If this goes south, Trudeau gets to carry that basket all by himself.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 20:28:38 by recceguy »
Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.