Author Topic: General Election: Oct 21, 2019  (Read 62803 times)

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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2019, 18:34:14 »
It would be interesting to see research on voter susceptibility to different forms of messaging like this.

Now, I'm not saying that memes and other online angstiness has zero impact. I expect it has some. But I'm leery of overselling the impact that echo-chamber clickbait has on the swayable votes.


Brihard, there are studies on that very topic.  This article discusses certain factors that make people believe or not believe memes based on likes and who exactly likes them.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-11-ill-meme.html

But when we live in a world where people believe that all news is fake news because someone they agree with says it umpteen times I doubt that experts who study this stuff will be believed. 
Optio

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2019, 20:07:49 »
Trudeau's performance last night will probably go down in history as his best outing.


Note to Ms May - when you invoke the modern equivalent of Godwin, you lose all credibility.
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Offline mariomike

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2019, 20:46:36 »
Note to Ms May - when you invoke the modern equivalent of Godwin, you lose all credibility.

I don't know what she said, but Mr. Godwin had this to say about Godwin's Law,

Quote
By all means, compare these shitheads to Nazis. Again and again. I'm with you.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170814002835/https://twitter.com/sfmnemonic/status/web/20170814002835/https:/twitter.com/sfmnemonic/status/896884949634232320

Quote
If you're thoughtful about it and show some real awareness of history, go ahead and refer to Hitler when you talk about Trump, or any other politician.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170209163428/https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/12/14/sure-call-trump-a-nazi-just-make-sure-you-know-what-youre-talking-about/?utm_term=.2b78480fe90e

But when we live in a world where people believe that all news is fake news because someone they agree with says it umpteen times I doubt that experts who study this stuff will be believed.

Negative news = fake news?

Perhaps some may find the "How to Spot Fake News" attachment helpful,

















« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 21:28:17 by mariomike »

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2019, 21:42:19 »
>But I'm leery of overselling the impact that echo-chamber clickbait has on the swayable votes.

I doubt the impact is meaningful.  Echo-chamber propaganda rarely escapes the echo chamber, where the audience is already committed.  Given findings that deeply politically engaged people overestimate the engagement of the rest of the population, I suppose the undecided fraction is much more likely to be swayed by whatever makes the first 15 minutes of the evening news or front pages of the major dailies.

"Fake" news from obviously fringe sources is a much lesser problem than "fake" news from mainstream sources, because in the latter case credibility is more readily assumed.
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Offline MilEME09

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2019, 23:16:40 »
Personally this election cycle I am not being drawn by the under whelming performance of any of the major parties. As a result I have been drawn to and likely will vote Veterans Coalition Party come October. For being a new party they have managed candidates in almost every riding. While I doubt they will win a seat, best case they get one, they have a solid platform that could appeal to many voters if they got the message out such as making CPP Tax free, or rebuilding the New veterans Charter.

https://veteranscoalitionpartyofcanada.ca/
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2019, 08:11:37 »
https://veteranscoalitionpartyofcanada.ca/
Hmm, learn something new every day.  I had to Google, since I'd never heard of them;  my riding doesn't have a candidate (of course, so far we have only Libs, Con, and PPC -- no NDP or Greens).

Being so fringe, I suspect any votes would have an effect similar to a spoiled ballot.  :dunno:

Offline MilEME09

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2019, 08:22:20 »
Hmm, learn something new every day.  I had to Google, since I'd never heard of them;  my riding doesn't have a candidate (of course, so far we have only Libs, Con, and PPC -- no NDP or Greens).

Being so fringe, I suspect any votes would have an effect similar to a spoiled ballot.  :dunno:

While I would say true in this case, apparently elections Canada hasn't verified their candidates yet, and they have until Sept30th to file all required documents. While it might be a spoiled ballot, it can eventually translate to seats given an election or two. Enough people vote though and the popular vote shows they the have traction can make the difference later down the road.
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Offline AbdullahD

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2019, 15:49:02 »
Got to love Trudeau

The risk of stealing equity in your home...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-cannabis-loss-1.5282994

Then taxxing your gains up to 5 years instead of just needing to stay in a place for one year...

Justin Trudeau’s secret plan to tax homeowners - Canada's Official Opposition
https://www.conservative.ca/justin-trudeaus-secret-plan-to-tax-homeowners/

I have a few buddies who flip houses and this will wipe them out. How are these not huge deals? Potentially wiping out tens of thousands of dollars from your pocketbook, but no one cares?

Sorry I am pissed, because it directly affects me and my planning for my circumnavigation.

Guess my only realistic voting option is the right.
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Offline CloudCover

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2019, 16:35:04 »
Not a fan of JT but that Conservative ad is misleading, even disinformation. The proposal from the Liberals is for a 1% tax applied to buyers who are both non resident and non Canadian. In particular, it is an attempt to discourage purchasing of real estate in Canada through means of unexplained wealth. Buying a fixer upper, polishing it up, then selling it as a principal residence is not going to trigger that tax. That activity is exactly what we need more of, and not this continuous real estate pornography show of opulent, wasteful homes that are rarely/ barely occupied.
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Offline AbdullahD

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #34 on: September 14, 2019, 18:10:47 »
Not a fan of JT but that Conservative ad is misleading, even disinformation. The proposal from the Liberals is for a 1% tax applied to buyers who are both non resident and non Canadian. In particular, it is an attempt to discourage purchasing of real estate in Canada through means of unexplained wealth. Buying a fixer upper, polishing it up, then selling it as a principal residence is not going to trigger that tax. That activity is exactly what we need more of, and not this continuous real estate pornography show of opulent, wasteful homes that are rarely/ barely occupied.

I will have to go looking for another more legitimate source.. but this one is what I based my thoughts off of.

Maybe I misread or am being misled.

I thought you might be interested in this blog post authored by Garth Turner: The house tax. You can view it at this link: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/09/13/the-house-tax-2/

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #35 on: September 14, 2019, 18:36:34 »
Not a fan of JT but that Conservative ad is misleading, even disinformation. The proposal from the Liberals is for a 1% tax applied to buyers who are both non resident and non Canadian. In particular, it is an attempt to discourage purchasing of real estate in Canada through means of unexplained wealth. Buying a fixer upper, polishing it up, then selling it as a principal residence is not going to trigger that tax. That activity is exactly what we need more of, and not this continuous real estate pornography show of opulent, wasteful homes that are rarely/ barely occupied.

Apparently this is different and is not the 1% annual tax on foreign ownership of houses. This was allegedly proposed by Adam Vaughn and would apply to every homeowner in Canada. I have not seen the Liberals formally announce it, but I could sure see it being snuck into the next omnibus budget bill, if they get re-elected.

Could you imagine the effect it would have on the CAF alone, at posting season in 2020? Who could afford to move and sell a house, taking a captial gains beating every few years?

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #36 on: September 14, 2019, 19:20:11 »
This all seems to be based on the attached document (fragment?) shared via various Conservative sources.  Didn't seem to make it into the platform document (which I know some will say is not worth the paper/electrons it's printed on) - also attached.  Also for the record, I've attached what buddy whose name is on the first document had to say.

All that said ...
... I could sure see it being snuck into the next omnibus budget bill, if they get re-elected ...
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #37 on: September 14, 2019, 19:28:40 »
Apparently this is different and is not the 1% annual tax on foreign ownership of houses. This was allegedly proposed by Adam Vaughn and would apply to every homeowner in Canada. I have not seen the Liberals formally announce it, but I could sure see it being snuck into the next omnibus budget bill, if they get re-elected.

Could you imagine the effect it would have on the CAF alone, at posting season in 2020? Who could afford to move and sell a house, taking a captial gains beating every few years?

It looks like it might be a misrepresentation.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/13/tory-allegation-of-secret-trudeau-tax-plan-a-blatant-misrepresentation-liberal-incumbent-says/

So far I’ve only seen the 1% foreign buyers tax (a good thing as far as I can tell)

And the first time homebuyers shared equity plan.  Depending on where you stand it could be a good thing if you want a house but are ok sharing 10% of the value with the government.
Optio

Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #38 on: September 14, 2019, 19:56:30 »
So the debate does not seem to have negatively impacted the LPC.  I wasn’t sure how it would affect them given their absence.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

I guess we’ll see what next week brings.
Optio

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Offline Thucydides

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2019, 22:41:48 »
Interesting that so far there has been no mention of the PPC. While they don't have much in the way of resources and had limited time to get organized, I found it very interesting to see how quickly they had fielded almost the full 338 slate (even before the Liberals). Even with a virtual media blackout they still seem to be able to draw on a very broad base, and I suspect it may be deeper than some people imagine (Maxime Bernier came to London last week with limited notice and drew a crowd of about 500 supporters).

To me this suggests the PPC may well have a spoiler role in the election as a minimum, drawing a lot more votes than people are expecting. Talking to some PPC supporters, they also believe that there is a large pool of disgruntled and undecided voters out there who have not been on anyone's radar to date. I can certainly believe there are a lot of voters who are disgruntled by what is on offer by the traditional parties. How willing they are to try out the PPC is a different story.

I personally will be very interested to see how well they do.
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Offline Brihard

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2019, 08:40:26 »
I'll be interested to see how they fare too, inasmuch as I'm interested and concerned to see the rise of any populist movement within a democracy. Canada thus far has done reasonably well at resisting the incursion of populism and nationalism into our electoral politics. The PPC have offered themselves up as the pressure release valve for that. It will be interesting to see how many voters take them up on the opportunity.

I'm quite confident (and very hopeful) that they will top out as 'also-rans'. I hope Bernier will not be reelected- it would be a shame to see his tantrum rewarded. Polling data is dubious; that said his riding right now is sitting with a slight CPC edge on Bernier, though it's flipped back and forth within the margin of error. It's a toss up right now. They don't have a snowball's hope in hell of any other seat.

Worst case for Canada as it regards the PPC is they get enough traction that they split enough votes in enough ridings to matters. Pretty much any gain to them will be at CPC expense. Politically and ideologically there's basically nowhere else for them to draw support from; they're trying to shave off the far right of the CPC, and maybe pull in other populists who otherwise wouldn't vote. While the PPC won't take any ridings beyond potentially Beauce, they conceivably could throw enough seats Liberal to give them another majority.

I'm beginning to get concerned. We've all heard at great length about how much the Liberals suck. Got it. Message has sunk in if and where it's going to. It doens't look to be doing the trick though. The friggin' conservatives need to quit dicking around and get out there with some solid 'why you should vote for us'. While 36 days is a long time in an election and a lot can happen, thus far they just haven't really shown up to play- and I'm not talking about the silly theatrics and snarkiness of the televised debates, but actually articulating and pushing real solid positive platform items.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2019, 10:16:35 »
I'm beginning to get concerned. We've all heard at great length about how much the Liberals suck. Got it. Message has sunk in if and where it's going to. It doesn't look to be doing the trick though.

And the polls seem to agree with you.  As of yesterdays's 338Canada projections Team Trudeau is solidly in majority territory.

The friggin' conservatives need to quit dicking around and get out there with some solid 'why you should vote for us'. While 36 days is a long time in an election and a lot can happen, thus far they just haven't really shown up to play- and I'm not talking about the silly theatrics and snarkiness of the televised debates, but actually articulating and pushing real solid positive platform items.

The Conservatives are on the defensive on a number of fronts and the Liberals have seized the initiative from Scheer. It may be too late already.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2019, 13:45:36 by Haggis »
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Offline Jonezy76

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #43 on: September 15, 2019, 10:56:11 »
I'll be interested to see how they fare too, inasmuch as I'm interested and concerned to see the rise of any populist movement within a democracy. Canada thus far has done reasonably well at resisting the incursion of populism and nationalism into our electoral politics. The PPC have offered themselves up as the pressure release valve for that. It will be interesting to see how many voters take them up on the opportunity.

I'm quite confident (and very hopeful) that they will top out as 'also-rans'. I hope Bernier will not be reelected- it would be a shame to see his tantrum rewarded. Polling data is dubious; that said his riding right now is sitting with a slight CPC edge on Bernier, though it's flipped back and forth within the margin of error. It's a toss up right now. They don't have a snowball's hope in hell of any other seat.

Worst case for Canada as it regards the PPC is they get enough traction that they split enough votes in enough ridings to matters. Pretty much any gain to them will be at CPC expense. Politically and ideologically there's basically nowhere else for them to draw support from; they're trying to shave off the far right of the CPC, and maybe pull in other populists who otherwise wouldn't vote. While the PPC won't take any ridings beyond potentially Beauce, they conceivably could throw enough seats Liberal to give them another majority.

I'm beginning to get concerned. We've all heard at great length about how much the Liberals suck. Got it. Message has sunk in if and where it's going to. It doens't look to be doing the trick though. The friggin' conservatives need to quit dicking around and get out there with some solid 'why you should vote for us'. While 36 days is a long time in an election and a lot can happen, thus far they just haven't really shown up to play- and I'm not talking about the silly theatrics and snarkiness of the televised debates, but actually articulating and pushing real solid positive platform items.

I'm also worried that the PPC will bleed off CPC votes. The ONLY chance to unseat Trudeau and the Libs is the Cons.. A vote for Max = a vote for Justin.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #44 on: September 15, 2019, 14:36:17 »
Taken as a whole, the PPC and it's stated principles and aims isn't particularly populist, although that depends extremely heavily on interpretation of "populist", which these days seems to be "anything further right than just right of centre".  The best course of action to stop a stampede of people who might like a populist party (they see something they like elsewhere described as "populist", so they vote for whatever they see in Canada described as "populist") is to stop lazily and incorrectly summing up the PPC as populist.  And the CPC should do to the PPC what the LPC did to the NDP last election - yank the rug CPC-ways and occupy it, firmly.  The PPC positions are mostly conservative / libertarian; that should be easy to do.

LPC supporters have made their rationalizations to pave over the ethical cracks.  Changeable voters not entirely happy with the status quo need an attraction.  The NDP and CPC leaders are weak and ineffectual, so that attraction seems unlikely to be strong enough.

The danger here is not the populists or any other fringe factions, or even the "elites".  The danger is the potential giant "F-U" by one set of Canadians to the rest of Canadians if the LPC is re-elected with a majority in spite of the manifest scandal.  That is the path to populism.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #45 on: September 15, 2019, 15:07:24 »
I was looking at something on Youtube this morning and an interesting and catchy ad came up.  As I hadn't done any searches (recently  :whistle:) dealing with the primary subject matter, my assumption is that the site's logarithm is assuming that my interest is either Canada or politics (or more specifically Canadian politics) since the current PM is featured prominently in the ad.

https://twitter.com/reefertilizer/status/1052711347299840000?lang=en

I wonder if Elections Canada will consider this a political ad and make it subject to the requirements for "issue advertising".  Until I started to actually listen to the lyrics, I thought it was a campaign ad.
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Offline ballz

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #46 on: September 15, 2019, 15:53:43 »
I had high hopes that Bernier would start a legitimate, libertarian political movement that emphasized personal responsibility, smaller federal government, etc. He did have good people behind him, well-connected, and with good political experience which is why they were so successful in getting the ground game established, starting EDAs and getting candidates. However, all those people have since abandoned him since he basically just went off the rails with some pretty stupid dog-whistling and I'm no different than those people. I liked Max when he was genuinely interested in libertarian principles over vote-buying, now it appears he's interested in votes and the only people left to get votes from are the fringes who weren't voting before. I suspect he hasn't taken too many CPC supporters from the CPC who haven't subsequently switched back to CPC.

The old Max could have been a force to reckon with, the current Max reminds me of a poker player that's gone full tilt mode until they're out of chips.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #47 on: September 16, 2019, 07:27:45 »
Aaaaaaaaaand for a slighty different view, here's the World Socialist Web Site's take on it all ...
Quote
... the Tories and the media, led by the Globe and Mail, the traditional voice of the Bay Street financial elite, are cynically and hypocritically seeking to use the SNC-Lavalin affair to shift politics still further right. Particularly sinister is their insistence that the RCMP must be empowered to investigate the SNC-Lavalin affair, and the actions of Trudeau and the Prime Minister’s Office in particular, in the midst of the election campaign. This would effectively give Canada’s national police—a force notorious for its right-wing sympathies and repeated violations of Canadians’ democratic rights—a powerful say in the election’s outcome.

(...)

The Trudeau government is a pro-austerity, pro-war government that must be implacably opposed by the working class. But in doing so, it must lend no support to the reactionary intrigues of the Tories and the Globe. Their attempt to make the RCMP the arbiter of the election’s outcome is part of a breakdown of democratic forms of rule in all the advanced capitalist countries.

(...)

The social democratic NDP as usual trails after the capitalist elite’s traditional parties of government. The NDP has essentially echoed the Conservatives’ talking-points on the SNC-Lavalin affair, while making clear that, in the event of a hung parliament, it will prop up a minority Liberal government.

(...)

The only viable response to the SNC-Lavalin scandal is for the working class to take up the struggle for socialism. The corrupt relations that exist between the political establishment as a whole and Canada’s fabulously wealthy corporate elite can be broken only through the establishment of a workers’ government, committed to placing the banks and basic industry under public ownership and workers’ control, a vast program of public works to meet pressing social needs, such as housing, health care, schools and social services, and a halt to the tens of billions of dollars wasted on preparing Canadian imperialism to fight in a new world war. Above all, working people can only end the domination of big business and the super-rich over political life by taking up the fight to abolish the capitalist profit system that gives rise to it.
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Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #48 on: September 16, 2019, 09:13:32 »
Ah, World Socialists.

You can always count on their brand of crazy to brighten the day....

Offline Fishbone Jones

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #49 on: September 16, 2019, 09:31:23 »
There seems to be a lot of speculation about Commissioner Lucki being married to Morneau's cousin. Has anyone seen anything solid about this?
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