Author Topic: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)  (Read 59463 times)

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Offline OceanBonfire

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Online Weinie

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1226 on: March 26, 2020, 20:03:12 »
Likin it :nod: Not the quote above. gas prices
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 20:07:13 by Weinie »
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1227 on: March 26, 2020, 20:04:36 »
Just paid 59.9. This is wild.
Likin it :nod:
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1228 on: March 26, 2020, 20:12:24 »
Just paid 59.9. This is wild.
Especially if you define "wild" as normal, legitimate, rational, market reality, non-gouging, non-partisan-agenda driven.
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Offline dapaterson

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1229 on: March 26, 2020, 20:22:24 »
Of course, with Alberta oil spot price at $6.50 a barrel, the Canadian economy is in trouble...
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Offline Brihard

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1230 on: March 26, 2020, 20:29:00 »
Of course, with Alberta oil spot price at $6.50 a barrel, the Canadian economy is in trouble...

Yup. We're all in a world of hurt long term.
Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1231 on: March 26, 2020, 20:32:05 »
Of course, with Alberta oil spot price at $6.50 a barrel, the Canadian economy is in trouble...
Or maybe we need to look at pipelines and other initiatives, in the current context, as not viable, or develop made in Canada solutions that exclude anybody else.
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Offline dapaterson

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1232 on: March 26, 2020, 20:33:09 »
Or maybe we need to look at pipelines and other initiatives, in the current context, as not viable, or develop made in Canada solutions that exclude anybody else,

Hmm... a Prime Minister named Trudeau bringing in a National Energy Policy...
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1233 on: March 26, 2020, 20:49:11 »
Of course, with Alberta oil spot price at $6.50 a barrel, the Canadian economy is in trouble...

What, all of a sudden oil matters? Harsh lesson about to be learned.
Apparently, a "USUAL SUSPECT"

“In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility; but when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger; stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood, disguise fair nature with hard-favor'd rage.”

 Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1234 on: March 26, 2020, 22:58:13 »
Of course, with Alberta oil spot price at $6.50 a barrel, the Canadian economy is in trouble...

And Alberta is in even more trouble:

Alberta's economic decline will be the 'most severe' the province has ever seen: RBC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/rbc-alberta-economic-forecast-severe-decline-1.5511032
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Offline CBH99

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1235 on: March 27, 2020, 01:03:53 »
Of course, with Alberta oil spot price at $6.50 a barrel, the Canadian economy is in trouble...


Like I've said before - and I'm not critical of Trudeau personally for this, as I'd be critical of any politician so incapable of accomplishing what other countries would consider a windfall to be jumped on.


-  Failure to start building a pipeline out west, despite various communities & First Nations supporting it

-  Failure to approve the Teck project, which was world class.  Approved by over 14 local indigenous communities, and would have created more than 7000 jobs

-  Failure to approve/start the LGN line through Ontario & Quebec, again would have created thousands of jobs


These 3 oil & gas projects alone - not to mention several others that aren't as worthy of media attention - would have created THOUSANDS upon THOUSANDS of jobs.  And he literally pissed the opportunities away.  And that's just in the oil & gas sector...think about all the other projects in forestry, mining, and agriculture that could have/would have been in place by now if he took something called "initiative" and "got things done in a timely manner."


I realize this is a COVID thread.  And I realize I should post this in the political part of this thread, and will for future posts.  But as it pertains to the quoted post -- our economy COULD have been in a more robust & more diverse position to withstand this COVID threat, had we set ourselves up with a bit of a buffer, which we had ample time and opportunity to do.    :2c:
 
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1236 on: March 27, 2020, 01:54:11 »
Of course, the crazy people are busy too….

FBI agents kill man allegedly plotting bomb attack on hospital amid coronavirus pandemic

FBI says Timothy Wilson, 36, had planned for several months to carry out a bombing and decided to target a Kansas City-area hospital

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/26/hospital-bomb-attack-man-killed-fbi-agents-missouri
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Offline OceanBonfire

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1237 on: March 27, 2020, 10:12:02 »
Of course, the crazy people are busy too%u2026.

FBI agents kill man allegedly plotting bomb attack on hospital amid coronavirus pandemic

FBI says Timothy Wilson, 36, had planned for several months to carry out a bombing and decided to target a Kansas City-area hospital

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/26/hospital-bomb-attack-man-killed-fbi-agents-missouri

I posted about that yesterday.

Also:

Quote
Extremists are using the coronavirus to radicalize and spread conspiracies online

According to a report released by the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness, "Supporters of domestic and international extremist groups have encouraged followers to conduct attacks during the COVID-19 pandemic to incite panic, target minorities and immigrants, and celebrate the deaths of their enemies."

"Extremists never miss an opportunity to leverage a crisis to amplify their agendas," Segal said. "Whether it's blaming Asians or Jews or others %u2026 that's just part of their fundamental ideology, is to blame others for world problems."

As the New Jersey report noted, it fits a familiar pattern: "In order to remain relevant, extremists routinely manipulate crises to validate their ideologies and incite potential attackers."

Segal says the goal of extremist groups is to feed off of the fear, anxiety and uncertainty that people are experiencing due to the crisis.

"People in desperate times embrace all sorts of ideas maybe they normally wouldn't in order to make themselves feel better," he said. "And that's what extremists are providing: somebody to blame."


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-extremists-conspiracies-covid-19/
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 10:15:59 by OceanBonfire »
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1238 on: March 27, 2020, 10:18:55 »
Coronavirus Is Widening the Corporate Digital Divide

As workplaces mandate that employees work from home, universities shift fully to online teaching, restaurants transition to online ordering and delivery, and automakers shut down their plants, we’re seeing the most rapid organizational transformation in the history of the modern firm.

Yes, companies have dealt with financial crises like the 2008 Great Recession or the dot-com bust of the early 2000s. And many have endured wars and terrorist attacks, election surprises, and previous health crises. But never before have established and evolved economies faced this kind of shock. And nothing quite compares to the physical-digital divide Covid-19 is revealing and how it affects the nature of work.

The stakes for digital transformation have increased dramatically. Now, digitizing the operating architecture of the firm is not simply a recipe for higher performance, but much more fundamental for worker employment and public health. This is creating a new digital divide that will deepen fractures in our society. The firms that cannot change overnight will be left way behind, exposing their employees to increasing risk of financial and physical distress. This divide is not only across firms, but is also driving fissures within firms. At Amazon, arguably one of the most successful digital firms in the world, warehouse workers are starting to protest.

The divide is sure to spread. While easily virtualized businesses like education and software continue to operate, closures and layoffs are mounting in others. On March 26 the U.S. Labor Department reported that 3.3 Million Americans had filed initial unemployment claims during the week, the highest such number in history. At a fragile moment like this, we must acknowledge that the economy cannot be run by digital firms alone. The COVID-19 crisis is giving us a terrifying, up-close view of how the digital divide will continue to play out. Can business and government work together to save us from that future?

https://hbr.org/2020/03/coronavirus-is-widening-the-corporate-digital-divide?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_campaign=dailyalert_activesubs&utm_content=signinnudge&referral=00563&deliveryName=DM74159
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Offline OceanBonfire

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1239 on: March 27, 2020, 10:33:36 »
Quote
Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis

The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, according to the analysis.

The duration of the virus means there may be a need for social distancing measures for longer than initially expected, although the country may eventually be able relax restrictions if it can more effectively test and quarantine the sick, Murray said.

The virus is spreading more slowly in California, which could mean that peak cases there will come later in April and social distancing measures will need to be extended in the state for longer, Murray said.

Louisiana and Georgia are predicted to see high rates of contagion and could see a particularly high burden on their local healthcare systems, he added.

The analysis assumes close adherence to infection prevention measures imposed by federal, state and local governments.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-forecast/coronavirus-could-kill-81000-in-u-s-subside-in-june-washington-university-analysis-idUSKBN21E00Z
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Offline Infanteer

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1240 on: March 27, 2020, 10:52:40 »
I can see the logic (as callous as it may be) behind Quirky's argument, and there is a certain utilitarian essence to it.  If we applied only that rubric (deaths) then maybe just isolating the elderly and vulnerable while letting everybody carry on as per normal to let this thing run its course as a seasonal flu does is the way to go.

However, I think this line of thinking, where we focus only on fatalities, misses the point, which is that this can still be a serious disease even if it doesn't kill you. From what I understand, while some otherwise healthy working age folks catch COVID-19 and are largely asymptomatic or spend a few days in bed, others suffer some harsh complications that requires hospitalization.  I did a quick google and found some CDC numbers:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm#T1_down

Even though the cohort of those aged 20-65 (we'll call this the "working cohort") suffers a low fatality rate, they still compose over 50% of the hospitalization/ICU admissions for severe cases, and that (if I'm reading the data correctly) this cohort still sees 25% of severe cases among all those who catch it.

I suspect this percentage is probably a bit inflated due to an uncertain denominator (ie: numbers of people who catch COVID-19 but aren't tested and counted), but even if you account for that, this virus still seems serious enough to result in complications resulting in hospitalization for 15-25% of the working cohort.  If this rips through Canada, that's about 3 to 5 million people in the working cohort that may require hospitalization.

Which brings us back around to the "national isolation period" we are seeing now.  While it may be hard on the economy, how much harder would hundreds of thousands of working cohort Canadians requiring hospitalization at any one time.  Using the r0 for COVID-19, 1 person will spread this to 406 people over 30 days if we carry on as per normal.  If we cut our activities down by half, that goes to 1 person spreading this to 15 people over the same period of time.  In military terms, we are preventing the working cohort (and all Canadians in fact) from becoming a Mass Casualty event on our national health care system.  The short term economic pain is probably worth the long term gain of not having a broken health care system and the risk of breakdown of law and order and social cohesion that comes with a "swamping" effect.

Some more editorials on this discussion.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/william-watson-herd-mentality-versus-herd-immunity-and-the-coronavirus?video_autoplay=true

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/matt-gurney-why-the-covid-19-herd-immunity-theory-is-dangerously-flawed?video_autoplay=true
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Offline dapaterson

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1241 on: March 27, 2020, 11:51:41 »
https://twitter.com/janycemcgregor/status/1243560777698758658

Poloz [Governor of the Bank of Canada] this morning likely had the quote of the day (week? month? year?) on this:
"No one ever accuses firemen of using too much water."
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Offline mariomike

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1242 on: March 27, 2020, 12:03:35 »
Quote
...The best advice from a health perspective is to get outside to get fresh air if you are not ill,” she said.

If you are sick, or have been in close proximity to someone who is, stay inside, she said. But everyone else can and should go for a walk as long as they maintain a two-metre distance from anyone they aren’t already living with...
https://www.reddeeradvocate.com/news/health-minister-encourages-kindness-fresh-air-to-manage-covid-19-stress/

I’m fortunate to be able to get out at varying times almost every day. There’s a large, popular area nearby for hiking, low level rock/boulder-climbing, a very open park area with picnic tables, and long paved paths for walking/jogging.

Rennie Park is a short walk from home. It's 24 acres, so keeping a two-metre distance is easy.

Our area is extremely hilly in nature with ravines, and a lot of steep hillsides.

Grenadier Pond, Catfish Pond and the Humber River all are at or near the level of Lake Ontario. Our neighbourhood is about 30 to 40 feet higher in elevation.

So, walking down to the lake is pretty easy, compared to the walk back home.  :)

I've been tidying up the backyard, and look forward to when the swimming pools re-open.



Offline Chris Pook

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1243 on: March 27, 2020, 12:03:56 »
Some more editorials on this discussion.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/william-watson-herd-mentality-versus-herd-immunity-and-the-coronavirus?video_autoplay=true

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/matt-gurney-why-the-covid-19-herd-immunity-theory-is-dangerously-flawed?video_autoplay=true

Indeed. 

Quote
Government ministers are unsure what to think. They agreed that the Prime Minister should follow expert advice, but what if experts disagree? There might be doubt about the deadliness of Covid, but there’s no doubt about the damage inflicted on the economy by the lockdown: the surging unemployment, the children denied their education, the apprenticeships abandoned, the businesses going bust. It might all be worth it. But how will we know?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/26/coronavirus-terrifying-killer-manageable-risk-still-dont-know/

Applies to Epidemiologists, Nutritionists, Climate Scientists, Environmentalists, Doctors and Lawyers.

Experts disagree.

Hard to make decisions based purely on science.

A pair of dice and a quarter should always be kept handy.






« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 12:08:27 by Chris Pook »
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1244 on: March 27, 2020, 12:22:48 »
On the economic front, with thoughts of How Big Is A Trillion, Really?, foremost

A look at the M2 money supply in the US over the last 3 decades or so.  The US is contemplating adding another 2200 Billion (2.2 Trillion) to the pot.  In 2008 they added 1000 Billion (or 1 Trillion).

See if you can find the inflection in the curve



Or on this one which looks at the Global Money supply.

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Offline CanadianTire

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1245 on: March 27, 2020, 12:23:32 »
My town has four gas stations on the same street; you can go from the first one to the last one in about two minutes.

The first one is closed for renos.
Yesterday, #2 was at 100.9, #3 (my normal one) at 98.9 and #4 at 100.9
This morning... #2 was 99.9, #3 and #4 were both at 105.9.
Everything has gone crazy. My town used to be more expensive than Richmond or Vancouver. But now we're often cheaper than Richmond and on par with Vancouver.
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1246 on: March 27, 2020, 13:04:59 »
Quote
Two thirds of coronavirus victims may have died this year anyway, government adviser says


Professor Neil Ferguson said experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less


(Edit - This is down from an upper estimate of 500,000 a month or so ago - based on information and circumstances at that time - Iteration 1)



By
Sarah Knapton,
 SCIENCE EDITOR
25 March 2020 • 4:13pm

Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.

But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.

Appearing via videolink, and drinking from a Keep Calm and Carry On mug, Prof Ferguson said: “We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in the epidemic, in that, by the end of the year what proportion of people who died from covid would have died?

“It might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or have underlying conditions so these are considerations.

“Fatalities are probably unlikely to exceed 20,000 with social distancing strategies but it could be substantially lower than that and that’s where real time analysis will be needed.”


Prof Ferguson, who sits on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said that the decision to lockdown Britain had been taken because the NHS simply could not have coped with the surge in demand, which would have had a huge knock-on effect for other health services, potentially having unintended consequences.

(Edit - please note the past tense)

He said that he expected the virus to peak within 2.5 to three weeks before tailing off and said that the warmer weather could also see transmision dip by up to 20 per cent.

The government’s strategy is to keep people apart to flatten the peak so that the health service can cope with the cases until a vaccine or anti-viral is ready, which is unlikely before the end of the year.

Prof Ferguson said that the new social distancing measures announced by Boris Johnson earlier in the week meant the NHS would now be able to handle the incoming cases of coronavirus.

“The strategy being done now in some areas ICUs will get close to capacity but it won’t be reached at a national level,” he said.

“We are reasonably confident that at a national level we will be within capacity.”


The government has faced widespread criticism for failing to test people in the community and trace the people they have come into contact with, unlike other countries such as South Korea, which managed to contain the virus far more quickly.

But Prof Ferguson said they were unable to adopt a similar strategy because Public Health England (PHE) had informed the Sage committee in January that there was not the capacity to test that number of people.

Instead, the current strategy aim is to suppress transmission indefinitely until other counter-measures are put in place, including a vaccine.

Prof Ferguson said it was clear that widespread testing was needed to help move the country from suppression measures and lockdown into something the country can manage longer-term.

He suggested that local areas may face lockdown if they have especially high rates of infection.

"There will be some resurgence of transmission but the hope is that by employing more focused policies to suppress those local outbreaks, we can maintain infection levels at low levels in the country as a whole indefinitely,” he said.

"It remains to be seen how we achieve this and how practical it proves to be. The long-term exit from this is clearly the hopes around a vaccine.”

However Sage was criticised for its slow response by the Editor of the medical journal the Lancet, who said experts had failed to appreciate just how serious the situation was in China by January, and the risk to Britain.

Richard Horton, said the group did not seem to have read important modelling papers that Chinese scientists had produced early in the epidemic.

There was a mismatch between the urgent warning that was coming from the frontline in China and the pedestrian evaluation of what the likely severity of the outbreak would be,” he told MPs.

“That suggests to me that we didn’t understand fully what was taking place. I think the perspective was largely on the UK but I haven’t seen an outreach to the scientists in China,

“China has top scientists who are doing cutting edge work and have responded in the most unbelievably rapid way so if I had been chair of sage I would have wanted to go to those scientists on the frontline to find out what is coming for us in the UK.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/?fbclid=IwAR0YWDayGwyTHNwHiE3F-9-LX-bDdjQG46SMj5pWF2UKdp0OBGEnJ7XPcQg

This all suggests, that as we advance in circles, getting past the shock of the first iteration with its Class 1 estimate, we have already made significant progress on the second iteration which will allow for a considerably tightened estimate by sometime around Easter (April 13 or so).  We can then expect the politicians to adjust while the scientists work on the third iteration.... also known as the first OODA loop in a stable system.

The social distancing has been, and is necessary, to make the OODA loop longer, to lengthen the Observation phase.  But it is not a solution for the virus itself.    That is likely to be a long time coming.  So the question really is:  How bad is this thing and can we learn to live with it in the same way we live with miriads of other viruses?

I think the answer will become clearer to the professionals within the next month or so.
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"If change isn’t allowed to be a process, it becomes an event." - Penny Mordaunt 10/10/2019

Online MarkOttawa

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1247 on: March 27, 2020, 15:42:21 »
Start of a post (note also refs to CAF intelligence):

Quote
“No, COVID-19 is not an ‘intelligence failure’”

That’s the title of this piece by Phil Gurski (tweets here), formerly an intelligence analyst at CSE and then at CSIS:

Quote
Intelligence agencies propose: governments dispose...
https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/03/27/no-covid-19-is-not-an-intelligence-failure/

Mark
Ottawa
Ça explique, mais ça n'excuse pas.

Offline Colin P

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1248 on: March 27, 2020, 15:45:02 »
https://twitter.com/janycemcgregor/status/1243560777698758658

Poloz [Governor of the Bank of Canada] this morning likely had the quote of the day (week? month? year?) on this:
"No one ever accuses firemen of using too much water."

Clearly they never fought a fire on a boat/ship

Offline Brihard

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1249 on: March 27, 2020, 15:53:14 »
https://twitter.com/janycemcgregor/status/1243560777698758658

Poloz [Governor of the Bank of Canada] this morning likely had the quote of the day (week? month? year?) on this:
"No one ever accuses firemen of using too much water."

Clearly he's never talked to a cop who had to work the subsequent crime scene.
Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.