Author Topic: US Presidential Election 2020  (Read 69616 times)

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Online Colin P

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #725 on: October 13, 2020, 12:46:03 »
California Republican officials have erected their own unofficial and unauthorized ballot drop boxes, trying to confuse some people to drop their ballots there instead of the ones from the state election officials:

From the links:

Barajas said doing so was legal under Democratic-supported state laws allowing third-party individuals to collect and deliver ballots for other voters with their consent - a process Republicans have disparaged as “ballot harvesting.”

“Democrats are now upset because organizations, individuals and groups are offering an opportunity for their friends, family and patrons to drop off their ballot with someone they know and trust,” Barajas said in a statement. “California Republicans would be happy to do away with ballot harvesting.”

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #726 on: October 13, 2020, 13:16:54 »
From the links:

Barajas said doing so was legal under Democratic-supported state laws allowing third-party individuals to collect and deliver ballots for other voters with their consent - a process Republicans have disparaged as “ballot harvesting.”

“Democrats are now upset because organizations, individuals and groups are offering an opportunity for their friends, family and patrons to drop off their ballot with someone they know and trust,” Barajas said in a statement. “California Republicans would be happy to do away with ballot harvesting.”


And then the article continues . . .

Padilla and Becerra disputed such arguments as beside the point in their briefing to reporters.

While California voters are permitted to designate someone else to physically submit a ballot on their behalf, a memorandum to county election officials from Padilla’s office cited the state election code defining a lawful drop box as “a secure receptacle established by a county or city and county elections official.”

The memo also says state regulations include extensive requirements for the design and security of the containers, which must be clearly marked as “Official Ballot Drop Box.”


During the previous mid-term election, the Democratic "ballot harvesting" consisted of individuals going door to door, meeting with voters and offering to submit their completed mail-in ballot on their behalf.  Thus, it met the then recent changes to California voting regulations.  The current Republican attempt of placing "collection boxes" similar to official ballot boxes does not get individual permission to submit the ballots.  The Republicans could harvest ballots in the same manner as the Dems did in 2018, but they would likely have a much higher "go **** yourself" response rate.
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #727 on: October 13, 2020, 14:11:49 »
From the links:

Barajas said doing so was legal under Democratic-supported state laws allowing third-party individuals to collect and deliver ballots for other voters with their consent - a process Republicans have disparaged as “ballot harvesting.”

“Democrats are now upset because organizations, individuals and groups are offering an opportunity for their friends, family and patrons to drop off their ballot with someone they know and trust,” Barajas said in a statement. “California Republicans would be happy to do away with ballot harvesting.”

... and elsewhere in the same links ...
Quote
In a news release, the California Republican Party said state law does not specifically ban them from collecting ballots in a box. They say the law only prevents tampering or forging ballots and that people collecting the ballots cannot be paid for doing it.

In California, state law says voters who can’t return their ballots themselves can ask anyone else to do it for them. Previously, people who returned a ballot for someone else also had to sign it and list their relationship to the voter. But a separate law passed in 2018 eliminated that requirement.

Orange County Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley said official drop boxes are clearly recognizable and carry official county elections logo. He said it wasn’t clear how many voters had used unofficial boxes but after receiving reports about them, he notified the state and district attorney’s office, which is investigating.

“Unofficial, unauthorized drop boxes are not permitted in the state of California,” said (California Secretary of State Alex Padilla) Padilla, whose office oversees election regulations and enforcement in the state.
I don't know the letter of the law in question, but this'll be interesting to see unfold - maybe even in the courts?

:pop:
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #728 on: October 13, 2020, 14:16:40 »
What's at issue is that individual permission might not actually be needed, regardless what people say was intended.

Section 3011

See (a)(9) through (a)(11), and then (c).  There's no way to enforce permission, authorization, or collection - chain of custody - that would disqualify the vote.  There are also no limits on how many ballots a person may collect and return.  If someone returns a bunch of ballots without the (a)(9) through (a)(11) info, the ballots will not be disqualified, and there is no way of proving how they were collected (which is paramount regardless how the fight over the meaning of s3025 is resolved).

Also in dispute (over interpretation) is that s3025 describes boxes established to return ballots to election officials, and doesn't say anything about boxes as a means of collection by persons who might return subsequently return the collected ballots.  I suppose there might be a statutory point somewhere about unofficial collection boxes, but so far no-one - including the officials who object - seems to have cited it directly, except to object to labeling boxes as "official".
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #729 on: October 16, 2020, 16:38:29 »
Another discussion about polling. One question which should be looked at is how much of this behaviour can be inferred from Canadian polling data?

https://spectator.org/shy-trump-voters-pollsters-and-the-appeal-to-ignorance/

 Shy Trump Voters, Pollsters, and the Appeal to Ignorance
Pundits resort to a hoary logical fallacy to explain away this very real voter bloc.
by David Catron
October 16, 2020, 1:20 AM

Quote
In October 2015 the most venerable name in public opinion polling, Gallup, announced that it would no longer conduct horse-race election surveys or predict the outcomes of presidential contests. Gallup had been the gold standard for such polling since the 1930s, but, after calling the wrong winner in 2012, the organization’s leadership decided that capturing a representative voter sample during the final volatile phase of a national election had become all but impossible. Gallup was thus spared the humiliation endured by many pollsters in 2016. Most of its counterparts, however, remain in denial about the limitations of their obsolete methodology and are consequently producing wildly inaccurate 2020 results.

The most obvious symptom of this intransigence is their refusal to consider the possibility that their models should contain some mechanism to account for the “shy Trump voter.” The latest excuse for failing to do so involves a rhetorical device that uses the defining characteristic of these voters to “prove” they don’t exist. Geoffrey Skelley, for example, writes at FiveThirtyEight that a recent Morning Consult poll “found little sign of shy Trump voters.” He reinforces his point by quoting another report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research that also found no evidence that such voters exist. This is a classic “appeal to ignorance” (i.e., the absence of proof is proof of absence).

Shy Trump voters are, by definition, hidden. Many are people who rarely answer calls or texts from numbers they don’t recognize. These voters are very real but quite invisible to pollsters. Some shy Trump voters are willing to participate in some public opinion surveys, yet remain reluctant to level with pollsters. A recent IBD/TIPP poll found the following: “Overall, 20% of registered voters say they’re uncomfortable revealing their preferred candidate.” This isn’t the only survey to reveal such reticence. A recent Cato Institute poll found that the reluctance of conservatives to share their political views has increased from 70 percent to 77 percent since 2017. CloudResearch asked specifically about shy Trump voters:

    Such concerns were more often than not expressed by Republicans and Independents, and also by those who said they would vote for Donald Trump.… 11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls.… 10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls.… 10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on phone surveys — double the number of Biden supporters.… The results could have implications in terms of the true accuracy of phone polls.

Indeed they could. Are October 2020 polls that purport to show former Vice President Biden ahead of President Trump significantly different than the mid-October 2016 surveys that indicated Hillary Clinton had all but won the election? For the comparable polls, there is little difference. The NBC/WSJ poll, for example, had Clinton up by 11 points on October 10, 2016. The NBC/WSJ poll showed Biden up by 11 points on October 12, 2020. Clinton was up by double digits in five polls between October 9 and October 16 of 2016. Biden has been up by double digits six times during the same seven-day period this year. At about this point in October 2016 Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers began their fatal decline.

and from the comments:

Quote
Ian Chapman Kitty Myers • 9 hours ago

Exactly, In principle a poll is like any other sample of a larger population in statistics. Getting good results using what statisticians call the 'Central Limit Theorem' only applies if the sampling is representative, i.e. every member of the larger population has the same chance of being sampled (no matter how small). If that is not true (and it generally isn't in political polling), then the central limit theorem no longer applies and you are forced to add in weights....which in effect is making assumptions and models of what you are trying to measure. At this point you've left science and entered into the realm of witchcraft.

What's more most people (80-90%) don't answer polls! This is why Gallup stopped doing horserace polls. For a poll to be valid, you have to assume that those that did not respond show the same overall population tendencies as those that did, but again there is no reason to believe this is true. If the "do not respond" rate for Trump supporters is even as little as 5% more than for Biden supporters, then you get a massive skew in the polls.
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Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #730 on: October 16, 2020, 16:49:36 »
I guess one has too look closer at those states where Trump was able to flip the college vote.  In those states the races were within the margin of error.

Are they now?  Probably but some States that Trump led by solid margins last time are in contention now.  You would think that Florida by now would have been a lock.  But it isn’t hence his campaigning there right now which normally he could be somewhere else. 

Also the margins in key demographics like women are widening far more than they were with Clinton.

Other differences are that there are far fewer undecided voters this time, Trump has a record (and this election will be a referendum on that record), Biden is far more liked than Clinton was.

Are there shy Trump supporters?  Sure but judging by the last election it wouldn’t be hard to factor that in.

I’ve mentioned this before.  Look at the betting houses.  They probably have a more accurate prediction on odds. 
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #731 on: October 16, 2020, 17:43:15 »
I guess one has too look closer at those states where Trump was able to flip the college vote.  In those states the races were within the margin of error.

Are they now?  Probably but some States that Trump led by solid margins last time are in contention now.  You would think that Florida by now would have been a lock.  But it isn’t hence his campaigning there right now which normally he could be somewhere else. 

Also the margins in key demographics like women are widening far more than they were with Clinton.

Other differences are that there are far fewer undecided voters this time, Trump has a record (and this election will be a referendum on that record), Biden is far more liked than Clinton was.

Are there shy Trump supporters?  Sure but judging by the last election it wouldn’t be hard to factor that in.

I’ve mentioned this before.  Look at the betting houses.  They probably have a more accurate prediction on odds.

There are also likely shy Trump detractors within the Republican establishment, too. Enough prominent Republicans - people who have been conservative much longer than Trump has claimed ton- who have been open in their despair for what he’s doing to their party and credibility. That signals to me the likelihood that there are plenty of others who will never admit voting anything other than Republican, but who in the privacy of filling out their ballot, May fee a need to defend the GOP’s future by trying to oust Trump. Four years under him have greatly damaged their credibility among the younger demographics. How much would another four years cement that? One term can be written off as a drunken hookup with one hell of a hangover. A second term is a conscious choice, and an endorsement that “this is what our party truly is”. That could be damaging long term. Demographics have a major strategic import in the long term health of a party.
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Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #732 on: October 16, 2020, 18:12:02 »
That’s a good point Brihard.

Senator Bass said as much.  He is worried that Trump and Trump Republicans are going to push the US hard left and the GOP may never recover.
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #733 on: October 16, 2020, 18:15:22 »
Senator Bass said as much.  He is worried that Trump and Trump Republicans are going to push the US hard left and the GOP may never recover.

Who is Senator Bass?

Do you mean Ben Sasse?
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 18:18:18 by mariomike »
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Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #734 on: October 16, 2020, 18:26:54 »
Who is Senator Bass?

Do you mean Ben Sasse?

Yes.  Sorry about that. Ben + Sasse = Bass.  Stupid brain.
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #735 on: October 16, 2020, 18:32:21 »
Ben + Sasse = Bass. 

Sounds like a potential 2024 presidential candidate.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #736 on: October 16, 2020, 20:49:32 »
>I’ve mentioned this before.  Look at the betting houses.  They probably have a more accurate prediction on odds. 

What factors are the bettors assessing?  Polls?  It'd be better to look at measures that are more clearly independent of polls.

A second Trump term won't mean the Republican party has become the Trump party.  It might just mean Republicans and independents dislike what Democrats are offering more than they dislike Trump.
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Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #737 on: October 16, 2020, 21:08:48 »
>I’ve mentioned this before.  Look at the betting houses.  They probably have a more accurate prediction on odds. 

What factors are the bettors assessing?  Polls?  It'd be better to look at measures that are more clearly independent of polls.

A second Trump term won't mean the Republican party has become the Trump party.  It might just mean Republicans and independents dislike what Democrats are offering more than they dislike Trump.

They aren’t always accurate but generally they are considered by some better indicator because they actually do use more than just polls. Things like fundraising and “events”.

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #738 on: October 17, 2020, 10:58:35 »
One term can be written off as a drunken hookup with one hell of a hangover.

I have no doubt he will get his second term.

But, he  may have doubts. Yesterday, at a rally in Georgia, he said he "will leave the country" if he doesn't get re-elected.
https://www.google.com/search?ei=pP6KX9nMMIim_QbUwqjABA&q=trump+georgia+leave+country&oq=trump+georgia+leave+country&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQA1DQrQFY-9QBYO3aAWgBcAB4AIABswGIAboOkgEEMS4xM5gBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXrAAQE&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjZrrig6rvsAhUIU98KHVQhCkgQ4dUDCAw&uact=5#spf=1602944707223

That is understandable, considering,
Quote
The legal reckoning awaiting Donald Trump if he loses the election
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/trump-election-legal-reckoning/index.html

At any rate, I don't believe Trumpism is going anywhere. I can see him continuing to call in to "the shows".

I can't see him relegated to some D-list celebrity purgatory like Sarah Palin.

He may even pull a Grover Cleveland and run again in 2024!  :)

Junior and Eric may, or may not, continue to "trigger the dems" and "own the libs". Although they would no longer be entitled to their Secret Service bodyguards.

But, as I said,

I have no doubt he will get his second term.













 
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #739 on: October 17, 2020, 11:50:38 »
But, he  may have doubts. Yesterday, at a rally in Georgia, he said he "will leave the country" if he doesn't get re-elected.

...maybe, to a country without extradition treaties with the US...   :whistle:

Also, if someone is confident at winning something, they won't publicly say (even in jest) "this is what I'll do if I lose". 

Finally, why is he campaigning in GA anyway?  Trump needs to secure the undecideds (whatever miniscule amount is left undecided) so he should be campaigning in swing or even Blue states.  His base is voting for him anyway, so why bother at this point in the campaign?
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #740 on: October 17, 2020, 11:57:00 »
More on the unreliabilty of polling. Even the Biden campaign is now stating polls are not accurate. Obviously the methodology needs to be changed dramatically if polling is ever going to be a trusted and reliable source of information again:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/10/17/biden-campaign-admits-the-polls-are-off-n2578277

Biden Campaign Manager Confirms What We All Knew About These 2020 Polls
Matt VespaMatt Vespa| @mvespa1|Posted: Oct 17, 2020 3:45 AM

Quote
We’ve been saying it for weeks now. The 2020 polls are trash. Things just don’t make sense. Joe Biden cannot be up by 10 points over Trump and be in a dead heat with him in Miami-Dade County, the most populous Democratic county in the Sunshine State. I’ve seen polls where college-educated voters are oversampled. Democrats are oversampled. And some firms haven’t moved away from registered voter models. Zipcodes where Trump Democrats live are bypassed and suburban GOP voters are targeted more than rural ones for the obvious reason that the former group is hostile to Trump. Also, yes, there is a shy Trump vote this year. It’s projected to be larger, with urban black women likely to fall into this category. Also, not everyone is as forthcoming with these pollsters over the phone. We have data on that too. What about young people? Youth interest in this election has dipped to levels not seen since 2000. We could see one million fewer young people vote in this cycle.

And if Biden is ahead by that much, he could hunker down in his bunker until Election Day. There’s no need for an ad blitz either, but look at where he’s campaigning folks. If you’re up by this much, there’s no need to give a speech in Detroit. Some liberal folks think conservatives are in denial mode. Wrong. Even the Biden camp admitted yesterday that they’re not up by double-digits in the polls (via Fox News):

Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon, in grassroots summit, emphasizes that their polling does NOT show a double-digit lead nationally.

"Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits"

“Those are inflated national public polling numbers” pic.twitter.com/v95za3XRGZ

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) October 16, 2020
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign manager warned against trusting inflated national polling numbers released this week, which showed Biden in a double-digit lead over incumbent candidate President Trump.

"Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits,” Jen O’Malley said Friday, according to a New York Times reporter. “Those are inflated national public polling numbers.”

Polls released this week by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist and NBC News/Wall Street Journal show Biden ahead of Trump in national polls by 11 percent.

Although Real Clear Politics, which compares several polls and combines the average has Biden in a lead ahead of Trump by 8.9 percent in national polls.

Though national polls are less important than key state polls, and Biden will need to secure a number of swing states.

Yeah, things aren’t looking too hot for Biden on the swing state front. Trafalgar, the most accurate battleground state pollster for the 2016 cycle, pretty much says as of now that Trump is headed for re-election. Trump has, among other things, the enthusiasm gap on his side by a huge margin. Since 1988, the candidate who has held that edge has won the election. I think that’s why Biden’s campaign manager admitted this; she’s popping warning flares early.

The take away from all this is polls are pretty much dead as a source of information anymore, but even using "push polls" as a form of disinformation is also no longer effective - everyone pretty much discounts polls anymore. I would suggest the same issues of methodology and unreliability also affect polls in Canada and throughout most of the Western world.

Of course the question of what can be used to replace polls is also fraught with issues. "Big Data" models based on information scraped from the Internet not only suffer "self selection" issues, but also deliberate manipulation, such as we saw when Twitter and Facebook blocked any posting or reposting of the New York Post story of Hunter Biden's emails, and this is far more pernicious since it is much mroe difficult to see the data or the underlying algorithms, not to mention any manual "placing fingers on the scale". Most people also don't realize there is an entire ecosystem of much smaller social media sites like Gab.ai, Ideka or Minds, which also act as conduits of information on smaller scales.

Farther upthread I mentioned an article which suggested a possible outcome based on looking at economic data such as ordering materials, but that requires a large chanin of inferences, and monitoring large numbers of vendors for prolonged periods of time (and of course other factors can come into play - for example candidates from previous elections can simply recycle a lot of materials like campaign signs).

So what is the answer? I really don't know. Some analytical methodology incorporating multiple information sources is obviously going to be needed, but which information sources are suitable and what sorts of weighting each different source should get will need lots of study.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #741 on: October 17, 2020, 15:49:38 »

Finally, why is he campaigning in GA anyway?  Trump needs to secure the undecideds (whatever miniscule amount is left undecided) so he should be campaigning in swing or even Blue states.  His base is voting for him anyway, so why bother at this point in the campaign?

Because strangely, Georgia is now a swing state: some polls have Biden/Trump tied at 47%. Others have the two within 1-2 points of each other. Go figure.
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Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #742 on: October 17, 2020, 16:08:44 »
Because strangely, Georgia is now a swing state: some polls have Biden/Trump tied at 47%. Others have the two within 1-2 points of each other. Go figure.

I think his point is that Trump should not have to be campaigning there at this stage of the election.
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Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #743 on: October 17, 2020, 16:13:44 »
Biden’s team is taking nothing for granted.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-warns-against-complacency-in-memo-donald-trump-can-still-win-this

A good position to take given what happened last time.
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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #744 on: October 17, 2020, 16:15:26 »
Biden’s team is taking nothing for granted.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-warns-against-complacency-in-memo-donald-trump-can-still-win-this

A good position to take given what happened last time.

I see what you did there ;)
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #745 on: October 17, 2020, 16:51:37 »
Because strangely, Georgia is now a swing state: some polls have Biden/Trump tied at 47%. Others have the two within 1-2 points of each other. Go figure.

Huh.  I thought GA was firmly red.  Who knew.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #746 on: October 17, 2020, 17:36:19 »
GA polling +/- was one of the narrowest in the RCP "Battlegrounds", and has moved in Biden's favour in past few days.  If the opinion polls are accurate, it's a fight and not to be ignored.
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Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #747 on: October 17, 2020, 18:06:58 »
GA polling +/- was one of the narrowest in the RCP "Battlegrounds", and has moved in Biden's favour in past few days.  If the opinion polls are accurate, it's a fight and not to be ignored.

And here I thought that polls should be ignored... ;D
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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #748 on: October 18, 2020, 14:13:37 »
Helmet Norpoth is predicting with 91% certainty that Donald Trump will win the Electoral College.  He is a Political Statistician from Stony Brook University.  Considering Stony Brook's prominence in Math and Science, I put more faith in their research than most pundit polls.  He also argues opinion polls don't really matter.  His model has correctly predicted 25 of the past 27 Presidential Elections:

http://primarymodel.com/

Offline Remius

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Re: US Presidential Election 2020
« Reply #749 on: October 18, 2020, 14:29:45 »
Helmet Norpoth is predicting with 91% certainty that Donald Trump will win the Electoral College.  He is a Political Statistician from Stony Brook University.  Considering Stony Brook's prominence in Math and Science, I put more faith in their research than most pundit polls.  He also argues opinion polls don't really matter.  His model has correctly predicted 25 of the past 27 Presidential Elections:

http://primarymodel.com/

Good source and to be honest it shouldn’t shock anyone if he does win the electoral college.  Some state races are just to tight and will probably come down to a county or two.  And as I’ve said I think the polls are tighter than they look.
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