Author Topic: Justin Trudeau’s approval deteriorates, can his rivals make gains? - Dec 18  (Read 1725 times)

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Offline Rifleman62

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http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-dec2018/ (Report at Link)

Winter of Discontent: As Justin Trudeau’s approval deteriorates, can his rivals make gains? - 19 Dec 18
    For the first time since October 2015, someone other than Trudeau is seen as best PM

December 19, 2018 – At the end of what has been a challenging and at times chaotic year across the federal political landscape, Canadian approval of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to decline.

With less than a year before an expected election, the number of people who favour Trudeau has fallen to 35 per cent, down from 46 per cent this time a year ago.

For the first time since October 2015, he is no longer seen as the national party leader who would be the best prime minister. That mantle now narrowly rests with Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) leader Andrew Scheer (33% prefer Scheer; 27% Trudeau), although many say they don’t know just who would be ideal in the top job (26%).

Underlying the downward shift in the PM’s approval is a tumultuous twelve months that saw his government face criticism for its handling of a number of key files, including pipelines, trade negotiations, and irregular border crossings.

More Key Findings:

 - Asked to name the top issue facing the country today, Canadians are most likely to say it is “the deficit/government spending” (28% do, compared to 21% each for the economy, environment/pollution, and health care)

 - Younger Canadians, who were outliers in their majority approval of Trudeau until now, appear to have lost some Liberal love. The Prime Minister’s approval drops to 42 per cent among 18-34-year-olds, from 56 per cent last year at this time

 - NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative leader Andrew Scheer remain a question mark to significant segments of potential voters. But while Singh holds the approval of just one-in-five (21%), Scheer’s approval is tied with Trudeau’s (36%)
 
INDEX (at link):
 
Trudeau approval
What’s driving the decline?
The opposition leaders
Best PM
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Offline PuckChaser

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For historical comparison, Trudeau's numbers are only 3 points higher than Harper's were going into the 2015 election (couldn't find Angus Reid poll, so its from EKOS): https://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/05/the-ekos-poll-harpers-approval-numbers-hitting-near-historical-lows/

There's also an older article from National Post showing the last 4 Prime Ministers at similar points in their time in office: https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/justin-trudeau-is-less-popular-than-stephen-harper-was-at-this-point-in-his-tenure-as-prime-minister

Offline Jarnhamar

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After the Liberals made pot legal I thought great, that's another 4 years in power for them.

Now?  I gotta say I'm really likeing Trudeau's Apple(tm) trade mark approach to customer service.  "Consumers are stupid and we'll tell them what they want".

Loving the polls, keep up the good work Justin.
+300 « Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 20:58:23 by Jarnhamar »
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Offline Haggis

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As I see it, the closer we get to an election, the louder Mad Max will become.  He will end up splitting the right vote which will result in, at a minimum, a Liberal minority government. 
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Offline Remius

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I'm convinced that if Rona Ambrose had been allowed to run for the leadership she would be our next PM. 

But internal rules made the CPC shoot itself in the foot.

The current cast of opponents don't inspire much.   
+360 « Last Edit: December 20, 2018, 11:07:31 by Remius »
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Offline Colin P

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Fully agree, i have to wonder if the NDP has been taken over secretly by Liberals to ensure they are not a threat.

Offline dapaterson

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My firm belief is that in Canada politicians only lose elections; they don't win them.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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My firm belief is that in Canada politicians only lose elections; they don't win them.

May the tallest person win: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/caveman-politics/201210/it-s-weird-candidate-height-matters-in-elections
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Offline Brihard

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As I see it, the closer we get to an election, the louder Mad Max will become.  He will end up splitting the right vote which will result in, at a minimum, a Liberal minority government.

I’m not convinced... he’s struggling make headway, and crazies are flocking to him. He may have an impact on a few seats, but I doubt it will be enough to fundamentally sway the election. I could be wrong.
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Offline Halifax Tar

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I'm convinced that if Rona Ambrose had been allowed to run for the leadership she would be our next PM. 

But internal rules made the CPC shoot itself in the foot.

The current cast of opponents don't inspire much.

Agreed.  Milpoints inbound!
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I’m not convinced... he’s struggling make headway, and crazies are flocking to him. He may have an impact on a few seats, but I doubt it will be enough to fundamentally sway the election. I could be wrong.

I was thinking more of the Liberals using him to drive "big C" conservatives away from Scheer by portraying Scheer as "liberal lite".
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Offline Remius

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Offline Rifleman62

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Stand by, the new Liberal buy votes with taxpayers money is on the horizon for Oct 19:

Liberals looking at national basic income as way to help Canadians cope with job instability

https://globalnews.ca/news/4777313/liberals-national-guaranteed-income/
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Offline Halifax Tar

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Stand by, the new Liberal buy votes with taxpayers money is on the horizon for Oct 19:

Liberals looking at national basic income as way to help Canadians cope with job instability

https://globalnews.ca/news/4777313/liberals-national-guaranteed-income/

We're not running deficits or anything so whats the problem with wildly spending ?
Lead me, follow me or get the hell out of my way

Offline Remius

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Yes they are, but the long term trend is somewhat more revealing. In virtually ever region, the Liberals are on a downwards trajectory, Quebec being a possible exception.
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Offline Fishbone Jones

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As I see it, the closer we get to an election, the louder Mad Max will become.  He will end up splitting the right vote which will result in, at a minimum, a Liberal minority government.
I've been following some other forums about Bernier. He appears to have a small following that doesnt seem to be expanding much. He appears to be having trouble coalescing his.message and platform. People are already returning to the conservatives. Just what I've read.
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I've been following some other forums about Bernier. He appears to have a small following that doesnt seem to be expanding much. He appears to be having trouble coalescing his.message and platform. People are already returning to the conservatives. Just what I've read.

Canada is not a Libertarian country. Bernier will never have more than a small following because most non-political Canadians love our social safety net and public healthcare system. I suspect most of his policies will be a non-starter for mainstream Canada, and the only chance he had of getting more of the free market policies he likes put into practice would have been as a member of a Conservative government cabinet. Instead, he took his toys and went home, and now he'll poll around the levels of the Green Party and be a political sideshow in the Commons whenever a journalist wants to trot out the "fractured Conservative party" meme to sell a few papers.

Offline Larry Strong

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I've been following some other forums about Bernier. He appears to have a small following that doesnt seem to be expanding much. He appears to be having trouble coalescing his.message and platform. People are already returning to the conservatives. Just what I've read.

Yup....this will go far.......

Quote
Bernier's party taps anti-'trans agenda' activist as candidate in Burnaby-South

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peoples-party-canada-bernier-tyler-thompson-1.4970112


Cheers
Larry
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