Author Topic: Is the CPC about to split  (Read 3095 times)

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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2018, 16:55:12 »
Here is another (probably the first), and here are some notes by the author (Jerry Pournelle).  And a critical commentary on both.
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Offline recceguy

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2018, 17:56:24 »
If he splits off and starts a new right wing party, then he hands the next election to Trudeau. Quite the tantrum.

People said the same about Doug Ford. The only poll or opinion that matters is on election day. I'm not ready to call anyone a shoe in until I see what's going on. It's just to early to speculate.
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Offline Brihard

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2018, 20:55:26 »
People said the same about Doug Ford. The only poll or opinion that matters is on election day. I'm not ready to call anyone a shoe in until I see what's going on. It's just to early to speculate.

Ford did not create a new party and thus split the vote; he was succesfully able to market himself to the provincial Conservative party at large, and do while while approaching an election that was already basically theirs to win. Bernier, conversely, is looking to hive off some as yet undetermined portion of the CPC into his own party in the early stages of the run up to a federal election that has considerable potential to be a tight one. If he splits the right vote to any significant degree, Trudeau takes it.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2018, 22:45:45 »
Bernier's good as long as his hairdresser hangs in there...
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Offline whiskey601

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2018, 23:11:39 »
That dude is an ultra marathoner. I wonder if *Just do it* will be his campaign slogan.

Offline ballz

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #30 on: August 23, 2018, 23:52:52 »
It's fun to speculate but I don't think anyone can guess the impact that this will or will not have. We'll need good hindsight goggles to understand all this after the election results are in. I can imagine it going so many ways and have no way to weigh the likelihood of any occurrence.

We don't even know how many candidates Max will be able to run. They acknowledged in the media today that Max's following is a very energized / active following. He may run 338 candidates as his Atlantic campaign manager posted on FB today. If he can do that, he may take a serious dent out the CPC's share of votes, maybe win 10-30 seats or something and take second in a lot of ridings. We would look at that and say "His successful first attempt has split the right and now JT has walked into another majority, but now he has a lot of momentum and the party has a future."

I could also see this being a complete flop. Having him out could help the CPC remain focussed/united. The Liberals remain a crap train until the election. The results come in and the Liberals are reduced to a minority, or even a CPC minority occurs, and Max fails to run a fully or nearly full slate, gets 2% of the popular vote, and is never taken seriously again.

Or a myriad of other things in between. Edit to Add: I should say that I don't think there will be any MPs leaving the CPC to join Bernier until after the next election.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 00:21:19 by ballz »
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Offline recceguy

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #31 on: August 24, 2018, 01:25:37 »
Another perchance/ perhaps. Maybe even if Trudeau slides up the middle, in will likely be a slim majority. Scheer and Bernier form a majority coalition, bring down the grits, take over and work out their differences that way.

There a couple more, but I don't want to derail things too bad.
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Offline ballz

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #32 on: August 24, 2018, 18:24:18 »
Chantal Hebert last night talked about how history repeats itself and stated: "People forget that Preston Manning didn't prevent Brian Mulroney from winning a majority government in 1988." What she was referring to was in 1988 when the Reform Party didn't win a single seat and Mulroney won a majority. In the next election (1993) they had a major breakthrough taking 52 seats and the PCs were decimated. She's a wise analyst and has me questioning my own perspective stated earlier that if Max doesn't have a great showing in 2019 he's finished.

If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.


« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 20:52:24 by ballz »
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #33 on: August 24, 2018, 22:27:45 »
Chantal Hebert last night talked about how history repeats itself and stated: "People forget that Preston Manning didn't prevent Brian Mulroney from winning a majority government in 1988." What she was referring to was in 1988 when the Reform Party didn't win a single seat and Mulroney won a majority. In the next election (1993) they had a major breakthrough taking 52 seats and the PCs were decimated. She's a wise analyst and has me questioning my own perspective stated earlier that if Max doesn't have a great showing in 2019 he's finished.

If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.

Side track... I've seen Chantal in action during conferences etc and I'd vote for her as PM before any of those other ridiculous, mentally deficient show ponies  :nod:
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #34 on: August 25, 2018, 10:10:31 »
If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.
Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.  Why are the Conservatives so insistent on catering to the extremes, essentially trying to out-Baptist the more knuckle-dragging American right.

There simply aren't enough Canadian voters holding views that far out there;  with Bernier splitting the right vote, with both apparently abandoning compromise and the more moderate, they're pretty much guaranteeing centrist voters will either go Liberal or simply throw up their hands and walk away, not voting at all.
Sadly amazed at people cheering on the spread of kakistocracy.   :not-again:

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #35 on: August 25, 2018, 12:21:44 »
This is a good test of Scheer's political mettle.  If he can hold the party together and prevent any significant amount of defections, he may have what it takes to win the next election.  If he can't, he should resign and the party should quickly find a leader who can knit things back together.
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Offline FJAG

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #36 on: August 25, 2018, 13:53:34 »
Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.  Why are the Conservatives so insistent on catering to the extremes, essentially trying to out-Baptist the more knuckle-dragging American right.

There simply aren't enough Canadian voters holding views that far out there;  with Bernier splitting the right vote, with both apparently abandoning compromise and the more moderate, they're pretty much guaranteeing centrist voters will either go Liberal or simply throw up their hands and walk away, not voting at all.

I have the same fears based on what I've heard from the convention.

Approximately 77% of the public want abortion to be legal which IMHO means don't change the laws. Yet the CPC is allowing a motion for debate which would give the party the ability to enact abortion legislation. This is the thin edge of the wedge. Once you have that as a party platform then there will be a death by a thousand cuts as more and more -a la US style- legislative/regulatory restrictions will be brought forward and put into play.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3290006/support-for-abortion-rights-strong-in-canada-but-poll-shows-we-are-middle-of-the-pack-globally/

Scheer , luckily, seems to be steady on this issue and supports the current party position.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-abortion-conservative-convention-halifax-1.4799052

On the other hand the party wouldn't put the issue of supply management on the agenda when the majority of the public is in favor of putting the issue on the table during the NAFTA talks (in fairness a Dairy Industry's commissioned Ipso poll said otherwise)

http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2018/public-ahead-of-politicians-on-dismantling-supply-management/
https://www.farms.com/ag-industry-news/canadians-support-supply-management-771.aspx

It strikes me we have far too many delegates who, while bleating about public-opinions/democracy matter, only advocate on issues which are important to a minority group of one-issue advocates.

Don't abandon ship for a new group. Therein lies the road to constant defeat. Time for centrists to take back the party back from the fringe elements!

 :cheers:
« Last Edit: August 25, 2018, 14:01:34 by FJAG »
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #37 on: August 25, 2018, 19:49:00 »
I don't think as many Canadians are absolutists on the abortion issue either way. Show them a video of a late term abortion and their minds would change quickly. I suspect a sliding scale is what a reasoned debate would end up with. Some fetal rights in the last trimester, with some health caveats to protect mom as well. The hardcore on either side would walk away disappointed. I suspect this would apply to most things. Canadians for the most part wander near the centreline of politics, wandering a bit left and bit right at times. Step to far from that path and your support plummets. 

Offline ballz

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #38 on: August 25, 2018, 21:11:26 »
Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.

No kidding. Things they prioritized and therefore did have time to vote on... abortion, banning/limiting access to pornography, and birthright citizenship (should being born in Canada automatically grant you Canadian citizenship)... the last of which passed and Scheer's own COS has already said it would be a source of attack for opponents...no kidding.
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Offline PuckChaser

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #39 on: August 25, 2018, 21:20:21 »
No kidding. Things they prioritized and therefore did have time to vote on... abortion, banning/limiting access to pornography, and birthright citizenship (should being born in Canada automatically grant you Canadian citizenship)... the last of which passed and Scheer's own COS has already said it would be a source of attack for opponents...no kidding.

What isn't being mentioned is that Scheer is not obligated to use anything in the policy documents as part of his campaign platform. They could have voted to secede Alberta from the rest of Canada and he gets a veto.

Offline FJAG

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #40 on: August 25, 2018, 21:26:06 »
From the general look of things the outcomes were the right ones albeit by a slim majority sometimes. We need to cut down on fringe delegates. I think I'm going to get re-involved in my local riding.

 :cheers:
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Offline whiskey601

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #41 on: August 26, 2018, 11:15:13 »
It was notable to me at least, that the under 30 group seem to overwhelmingly favour ditching supply management, and really were exasperated with abortion, pornography and citizenship efforts.  And, they seem to have a low-neutral taste for Scheer but at the same time are intrigued by Bernier.

Offline ballz

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #42 on: August 26, 2018, 13:26:25 »
I know it's just a poll, but if he's got 13% of the popular vote among decided voters already, he's off to a pretty damn good start...
The write-up also says that another 3% are "likely" to vote for Bernier with 33% answering "would consider"... that's pretty massive for a guy who hasn't even registered a party yet.

https://mailchi.mp/abacusdata/abacus-data-poll-vote-intention-update-508045|

We may have finally reached the 10% tipping point in Canada with a face/leader to rally around.

Also of note... he takes 6% from CPC and 5% Libs/NDP.... so much for "splitting the right" or being an "extremist."
Many persons have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification, but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.
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Offline ModlrMike

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #43 on: August 26, 2018, 13:29:35 »
As long as he clings to dismantling supply management, he'll never be popular in Quebec. His opposition will successfully sell it as an attack on Quebec in general, rather than what it really is - the breaking up of a cartel that adversely affects all Canadians. Combine this with some of his more libertarian positions that will be a tough sell in the west, and he's got quite an uphill battle.
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #44 on: August 26, 2018, 14:04:10 »
I think that one of the lessons that Max has taken on board is that, in contrast to earlier generations, it is easier to influence debate from the outside than the inside.

In the past the key to influence was to get inside the institutions of society, rise to the top and then start using the levers available.

The lessons of Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Brexit and the form of democracy derided as populism are that institutions are susceptible to external pressure in a way that they never were in the past.

Although,

There are no lack of historical examples of external influence

I could suggest the election of Justin Trudeau as an example.  Along with the influence of Preston Manning and Stephen Harper on the debate over balanced books and national debt.  Or TC Douglas on Health Insurance.  Or the universal franchise....

Chartists, Luddites and Levellers.  Covenanters and Huguenots.  Presbyterians, Baptists, Congregationalists and Methodists.  Dissenters and Non-Conformists.

In the past it took longer to organize an external movement.  Even when the printing press and universal literacy spawned the early generation of dissenters.

Now  a budget of a few thousand dollars makes it possible to pressure the institutions from the outside.

Britain is only one of 28 inside the EU.   But it is one of 2 outside the EU.

Max is only one of 97 inside the CPC.  But outside the CPC?

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Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #45 on: August 26, 2018, 14:24:05 »
It is hard to predict how this is going turn out. Max could canabalize the CPC from the inside out and collect disaffected Liberals, especially if JT has another bad few months.

Or he could fizzle. I think it all depends on how hungry for change the electorate is in a year.

Previous examples don't really work anymore, as Chris pointed out.

Offline Remius

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2018, 11:05:34 »
So less than a month and it seems that Mad Max has a name for his party.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bernier-peoples-party-canada-1.4823647

I also find it interesting the amount of money he's raised in such a short period of time...
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Offline Bird_Gunner45

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2018, 13:24:33 »
So less than a month and it seems that Mad Max has a name for his party.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bernier-peoples-party-canada-1.4823647

I also find it interesting the amount of money he's raised in such a short period of time...

Better headline might have read, "poor loser takes ball and goes home".
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