2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[mariomike]

The PM implied a Jewish CPC MP was on the side of Nazis in the HoC...

Maybe, because of that, we will see more Jewish CPC MPs after next election...

Of Canada's current federal Jewish politicians, there are 6 LPC MPs and 2 CPC MPs.

 

[ArmyRick]

Maybe, because of that, we will see more Jewish CPC MPs after next election...

Of Canada's current federal Jewish politicians, there are 6 LPC MPs and 2 CPC MPs.

I seriously think JT miscalculated with that blunder. He seems to want to leave it alone and not bring it up.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Congrats to PP. Now get to work solidifying the platform and prepping for the fight of the century.

This next electoral campaign is gonna be dirty.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Doug Ford is an interesting one; his government did a generally pretty competent job in the pandemic, which required with other provincial and the federal government. He had zero tolerance for the conspiracy nuts, and then did get rid of thing like get rid of the license plate renewal fee (licensing is still required, but you can just set a reminder on the website and it will ping you 3 months out, and takes less than 5 minutes to do it for free).

He then very specifically distanced himself from the CPC.

I think the Ford majority is more indicative of both the fact that ON PC =/= federal CPC, and people are still pissed off at the Wynne Liberals.

Not holding my breath for PP and the 118 other CPC MPs to actually start to do things now though, but guess we'll wait and see. They seem to entrenched is being the oppostion party that will sweep to power at some point than having a functional HoC now though.

 

[OldSolduer]

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Congrats to PP. Now get to work solidifying the platform and prepping for the fight of the century.

This next electoral campaign is gonna be dirty.

I am not sold on him. I am not sold on any of his former rivals either. In a country of almost 40 million we certainly could do better.

There is an old saying "there is room for everyone in the tent". It might be Arabic - I don't know for sure.

He needs to get the tent in order.

 

[Remius]

A couple of thoughts on the upcoming PMFC (Prime Minister Fighting Championships) Defending champion JT vs top challenger PP.
-I think JT will watch the polls and try to exploit any opportunity to call a snap election if PP or ANY of his MPs slip up (if a Tory back bencher gets caught drinking and saying just the slightest dumbest thing for example)

Agreed. I think JT will engineer an election when the time suits him.

-I think JT may try to sweeten the pot with the NDP and the Bloc to have them label PP as "the next Trump"

Yes. It certainly will be ABC this time as well. Part of the scorched earth “nonsense” thing Justin Ling mused about

-In the next election, Singh, Bloc Guy and whoever is in the greens will not run to get as many votes as possible instead they will campaign to take away as many votes as possible from PP

I doubt it. But I see them encourage strategic voting. Bloc will do what’s best for the Bloc and QC. I don’t think they care who is in power. Singh will muse on ABC and might actually consider a merge if the CPC wins a weak minority.

-In an open debate, PP will destroy Trudeau for sure.

Meh. Not so sure. They said that about Harper vs Trudeau. And his performance against Charest wasn’t earth shattering. I’m sure it will be testy but they’ve sparred before so I’m not sure why this is a novel thing. In any federal election debate I see PP getting dog piled on by everyone else.

-JT will try to bring up any link of PP and his tory party to the trucker convoy, anti-vaxxers, "hate" (I bet he will blame the red neck who harassed Freeland on PP) and stopping or against any planned benefits for Canadians.

Yes, see the scorched earth thing vs actually campaigning on governance.

-I also think JT will try to label PP as bending to the corporate elite in Canada

Possibly yes. There may be other low hanging fruit to attack him on though.

-If PP stays on course, stays quick witted with well rehearsed (and researched) answers, he is going to make JT look like a fool

He is anything if not consistant. He is quick witted but can be knocked off his position when confronted. (His flustered response about his real estate business as an example). He needs to avoid weird things like crypto and firing the BOC governor to not look like a fool himself.

-PP should also use every opportunity to ask his difficult questions in Parliament Q & A

Yes. He will be and has been good at that.

Canadians on the other hand can have a good election or piss poor one

Depends on who you cheer for

-Please stop voting for a party because you always have, they are not a sports team

True. Campaigns matter, issues matter. I voted CPC last time. Not sure I will in the next one. We’ll see.

-Each region will probably stick to their guns.

Some will.

-Ontario could be swung either way IMO. Hey Doug Ford got back in with a majority!

He did but he ran on a centrist platform. Not sure PP will do that. If Ford makes unpopular decisions (and he’s started a few)it could favour the LPC.

So lets see what happens.

Lots of time to see that.

 

[Furniture]

Of course and I said as much that it was his opinion.

But it makes sense. PP won’t court then Center and may have found another way to get the CPC into power.

What parts of what he opines on is nonsense to you?

That he won’t pivot? I don’t think he will.

That he isn’t a racist? I don’t think he is either.

That Trudeau will go scorched earth and not actually campaign on governance? I suspect that is where we are heading.

Who is the centre?

I feel I'm pretty centre/centre-right, and I find PP far more appealing than JT. As mentioned earlier, Ford won Ontario as a centre/centre-right politician...

If PP campaigns on affordability, and keeps the SOCONS quiet, he will likely do very well with the non-diehard Liberal and NDP voters. JT got elected a few times on poorly thought through platforms, why can't it work for the CPC?

 

[Remius]

Doug Ford is an interesting one; his government did a generally pretty competent job in the pandemic, which required with other provincial and the federal government. He had zero tolerance for the conspiracy nuts, and then did get rid of thing like get rid of the license plate renewal fee (licensing is still required, but you can just set a reminder on the website and it will ping you 3 months out, and takes less than 5 minutes to do it for free).

He then very specifically distanced himself from the CPC.

I think the Ford majority is more indicative of both the fact that ON PC =/= federal CPC, and people are still pissed off at the Wynne Liberals.

Not holding my breath for PP and the 118 other CPC MPs to actually start to do things now though, but guess we'll wait and see. They seem to entrenched is being the oppostion party that will sweep to power at some point than having a functional HoC now though.

Ford and Tim Houston in NS campaigned the same way. “We are not them”

 

[Brad Sallows]

First thing people ought do is figure out where they actually sit, as opposed to where they think they sit or want to believe they sit. Are you part of the "1%" (probably not) or the "25%"? Then unless you rub shoulders with a lot of people in the next couple of quartiles, you might not have a very good idea of where the centre is. The people with jobs and lives organized around employment and families don't often speak up, let alone protest. Their voices aren't often represented by the chattering mob in the media (part of the "25%"). When they do protest, even if it's an incoherent scream, it's more important to pay attention to them than to fringe activists mad at the world about everything and who live for acting out.

 

[brihard]

I guess it’ll come down to what is he going to do different? How will he overcome the CPC’s conventional over-courting of already secure seats in the Prairies, and attract enough votes in ridings in eastern Canada that can actually deliver a win? Harper mostly swept Ontario and the Atlantic and even much of BC, including many urban ridings. But that was 2011. Can Poilievre do that?

The prairies are safely CPC as long as they run a reasonably conservative platform, and the choice of Poilievre will take much of the modest wind out of the PPC sails and will minimize PPC nipping at them from the right. They need to shift focus from there. I don’t know if the party can.

 

[ArmyRick]

I guess it’ll come down to what is he going to do different? How will he overcome the CPC’s conventional over-courting of already secure seats in the Prairies, and attract enough votes in ridings in eastern Canada that can actually deliver a win? Harper mostly swept Ontario and the Atlantic and even much of BC, including many urban ridings. But that was 2011. Can Poilievre do that?

The prairies are safely CPC as long as they run a reasonably conservative platform, and the choice of Poilievre will take much of the modest wind out of the PPC sails and will minimize PPC nipping at them from the right. They need to shift focus from there. I don’t know if the party can.

If the CPC can get Peter Mackay to get out and help campaign, it might build up strength in the maritimes.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Correct.

Justin Ling had a good analysis of where he thinks PP will go.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568765916065955842

What's the end game here? A Conservative minority is likely a Lib/NDP or Lib/Bloc coalition, or another election in short order when he fails a confidence vote.

 

[Lumber]

What's the end game here? A Conservative minority is likely a Lib/NDP or Lib/Bloc coalition, or another election in short order when he fails a confidence vote.

Can you just imagine the turmoil if the CPC gets the plurality, but the LPC and NDP offer to the GG to form a formal coalition government (their combined numbers totaling a majority in parliament), and the GG accepts? Can you just IMAGINE.

 

[Good2Golf]

Can you just imagine the turmoil if the CPC gets the plurality, but the LPC and NDP offer to the GG to form a formal coalition government (their combined numbers totaling a majority in parliament), and the GG accepts? Can you just IMAGINE.

I think that’s a CONPLAN in the Liberal red book, filed under “Emergencies Act - Round 2”

 

[ModlrMike]

Can you just imagine the turmoil if the CPC gets the plurality, but the LPC and NDP offer to the GG to form a formal coalition government (their combined numbers totaling a majority in parliament), and the GG accepts? Can you just IMAGINE.

They tried this once already and failed. The argument being that the public did not vote for a coalition, as both leaders emphatically stated that was off the table during the election. The 180 afterwards was what the GG (Michelle Jean) supposedly based her decision on. Had folks known that a coalition was an option when the writ was dropped, the outcome might have been different.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

They tried this once already and failed.

How would it fail?

The Liberals get first crack at forming a Government. If they can assemble a coalition, the GG has no choice but to accept it.

 

[Remius]

Given how some people have no concept how our government works I suspect lots of people would rage and write poorly worded manifestos to overthrow the government coalition should one ever be formed. And then plenty of people say that isn’t at all what they meant after the fact.

Or maybe not.

Maybe a minority CPC gvt will be allowed to govern until it does something the opposition won’t stand for and we’ll have another election. Like most times.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Given the amount of whinging in the past by some people on the left when right-wing parties do well, a little more whinging from the right if the LPC form a coalition is tolerable.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Coalitions are pretty common in a lot of Parliaments, and would be a lot more common if we moved away from FPTP to more proportional representation. It's a feature of representative democracy, not a bug.

In theory if a coaltion of independents with completely different views put together a plan and had enough numbers they could form a government, and if you tried to figure out the coalitions in the Knesset you'd realise the parties involved are all over the spectrum, but come together over common interests.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Coalitions are pretty common in a lot of Parliaments, and would be a lot more common if we moved away from FPTP to more proportional representation. It's a feature of representative democracy, not a bug.

In theory if a coaltion of independents with completely different views put together a plan and had enough numbers they could form a government, and if you tried to figure out the coalitions in the Knesset you'd realise the parties involved are all over the spectrum, but come together over common interests.

It also can give disproportionate power to people who shouldn’t have any as they can sometimes become kingmaker.

You wish to form that government? Well my small far right/left party has a couple demands we want in exchange, if not no government…

People think the PPC is extreme, we haven’t even scratched the surface and that is 1000% the result of the FPTP system. We could literally have Nazi parties or Communist parties elected depending on the system and some government at some point may have to deal with them.