• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran

The Bread Guy

Army.ca Relic
Staff member
Directing Staff
Subscriber
Donor
Reaction score
70
Points
780
Helpful ....
More and more reports from people with access to the crash site that the wreckage has been bulldozed into a pile, making a truly forensic investigation next to impossible. #PS752
 

Retired AF Guy

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
22
Points
430
Just listened to CBC Radio (1300 hrs) and according to them the Pentagon is saying the Iranians are responsible and that satellites detected two missiles being launched. CBC also said that the Canadian government has been provided with the intelligence.

More here

Note that launching two missiles per target is in line with Russian doctrine and I imagine that's what the Iranians are also following.
 

Retired AF Guy

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
22
Points
430
Trudeau to address reports Iranian missile likely brought down Ukrainian flight, killing 63 Canadians at 1400 Eastern Time.
 

The Bread Guy

Army.ca Relic
Staff member
Directing Staff
Subscriber
Donor
Reaction score
70
Points
780
Retired AF Guy said:
Trudeau to address reports Iranian missile likely brought down Ukrainian flight, killing 63 Canadians at 1400 Eastern Time.
And if you want to watch online ...
https://www.cpac.ca/en/direct/cpac2/384109/pm-trudeau-provides-update-on-iran-plane-crash/
 

Good2Golf

Army.ca Legend
Staff member
Directing Staff
Subscriber
Mentor
Reaction score
710
Points
1,040
gryphonv said:
The connection I haven't seen made yet, but wasn't Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 shot down by a very similar system that is being suggested shot down the UKR plane?

No, 9M37/38M1 ‘Buk’.  9N314M Warhead.

Regards
G2G
 

The Bread Guy

Army.ca Relic
Staff member
Directing Staff
Subscriber
Donor
Reaction score
70
Points
780
gryphonv said:
... The two incidents seem way too similar for me though.
Especially the multiple narrative tracks developing simultaneously.
 

Navy_Pete

Army.ca Veteran
Subscriber
Reaction score
286
Points
910
milnews.ca said:
Normally, Defence Blog is reasonably good, but I notice the first Tweet referenced is no longer online (although if you follow the thread, you find a Twitter account linked to an official UKR military news portal asking where the now-missing photo came from).

This guy (latest attached) I know works hard to verify stuff, and even though more such photos seem to be cropping up, they're cropped to tightly to geo-locate, so it's still fuzzy for the moment.

Another guy who's reasonably solid shows more about the plane trying to turn back before hitting the ground (second attachment), possibly adding to the "hit by a missile" theory.

Kind of an aside, but if the seeker head is intact, do the explosives go outward  in a circle behind it?  Always kind of assumed the tip actually had the explosives and blew out in a cone, but I guess when it's going that fast if the charge blows out perpendicular to the missile it will still form a cone shaped cloud of shrapnel to ruin any plane's day.
 

The Bread Guy

Army.ca Relic
Staff member
Directing Staff
Subscriber
Donor
Reaction score
70
Points
780
So far, PMJT sticking on message:  need credible, complete, in-depth investigation, and those discussions are ongoing.  No, we won't tell you more details about the int we have.  No, I'm not going to talk about potential consequences if a probe shows the plane was shot down.  We continue to talk with IRN about getting more access and being involved in the probe.

New tidbit:  Canada's been talking to the Netherlands about their experience in investigating the MH17 shoot-down in Ukraine.

FWIW, IRN media say Canadians have been invited to join the probe ...
Canadian and Swedish authorities have been invited to cooperate in the investigation into Wednesday's crash, the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization said in a statement.

The first joint meeting between Iranian and Ukrainian experts, sent to Tehran to investigate the incident, has already taken place, according to the organization ...
What the bit in yellow means, exactly, isn't clear.  PMJT doesn't say in his statement so far that we've received any such invite.
 

gryphonv

Full Member
Reaction score
4
Points
230
I am far from a fan of Trudeau, but I feel he is handling this as good as anyone should expect.

Some of the questions posed to him are moronic and definitely didn't pass any sort of QC checks, about 90% of them anyone with half a brain would know he couldn't answer.

And most of them seem only to trap him in an awkard response.

I got so angry with the guy who asked if Trump shared some of the blame, how about concentrate on the fact we have 63 Canadians dead and many families/friends suffering right now.

Blame can come after, the grieving should be now.
 

SeaKingTacco

Army.ca Fixture
Donor
Reaction score
733
Points
910
gryphonv said:
I am far from a fan of Trudeau, but I feel he is handling this as good as anyone should expect.

Some of the questions posed to him are moronic and definitely didn't pass any sort of QC checks, about 90% of them anyone with half a brain would know he couldn't answer.

And most of them seem only to trap him in an awkard response.

I got so angry with the guy who asked if Trump shared some of the blame, how about concentrate on the fact we have 63 Canadians dead and many families/friends suffering right now.

Blame can come after, the grieving should be now.

Every sovereign nation is entirely, 100%, responsible for the conduct of their own Armed Forces.

You don't get to blame misplaced rounds on the other guy in the fight. If your ordnance goes astray- own it.
 

gryphonv

Full Member
Reaction score
4
Points
230
SeaKingTacco said:
You don't get to blame misplaced rounds on the other guy in the fight. If your ordnance goes astray- own it.

That works in an open society where the news will probably leak sooner than later. Doesn't work so well in a dictator state that want's to maintain the image of being infallible. Works even less when that nation is already suffering with uprisings at home.
 

gryphonv

Full Member
Reaction score
4
Points
230
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Video Shows Ukrainian Plane Being Hit Over Iran
 

SeaKingTacco

Army.ca Fixture
Donor
Reaction score
733
Points
910
gryphonv said:
That works in an open society where the news will probably leak sooner than later. Doesn't work so well in a dictator state that want's to maintain the image of being infallible. Works even less when that nation is already suffering with uprisings at home.

This is exactly my point. During the news conference, much of the media was attempting to get the PM to blame the Americans. This smacks of an all too Canadian tendancy to define ourselves by anti-Americanism and moral relativism.

What ever you think of Trump personally, this event should leave no Canadian under the misapprehension that the US and Iran are moral equivalents. They are not. And now more that 60 of our citizens are dead, as a result of Iranian actions.

Do I "think" that the Iranian regime did this purposefully? I would say no. But what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.
 

Cloud Cover

Army.ca Veteran
Subscriber
Reaction score
27
Points
430
gryphonv said:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Video Shows Ukrainian Plane Being Hit Over Iran

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215352457972404226?s=20
 

gryphonv

Full Member
Reaction score
4
Points
230
SeaKingTacco said:
Do I "think" that the Iranian regime did this purposefully? I would say no. But what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.

I hope for the sake of all nations involved, Iran included, that this wasn't intentional.

One thing that makes me wonder though, is why the Iranians didn't close their air space and stopped allowing civilian flights to operate, when they were obviously in a defensive posture.
 

The Bread Guy

Army.ca Relic
Staff member
Directing Staff
Subscriber
Donor
Reaction score
70
Points
780
SeaKingTacco said:
... During the news conference, much of the media was attempting to get the PM to blame the Americans ...
When I watched, I heard one question to that effect, although I was called away a couple of times - how many other questions were there about #POTUS45?  And agreed -- dumb and short-sighted.
SeaKingTacco said:
... what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.
:nod:

The various takes from the news conference ...
 

gryphonv

Full Member
Reaction score
4
Points
230
milnews.ca said:
When I watched, I heard one question to that effect, although I was called away a couple of times - how many other questions were there about #POTUS45?  And agreed -- dumb and short-sighted. :nod:

Maybe I over blown it by saying 'Many' I seem to recall only the one now, and it irked me so I was seeing red after that, overall I was disappointed by the questions thrown at the PM, it was like they were having a contest in seeing how many ways they could ask the same question phrased differently, or they were truly unprepared and didn't have back up questions.

Over all I think the PM did a great job handling it. Keeping a cool head, no mater how many times he had to repeat the same answer over and over.
 

FJAG

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
641
Points
940
SeaKingTacco said:
Every sovereign nation is entirely, 100%, responsible for the conduct of their own Armed Forces.

You don't get to blame misplaced rounds on the other guy in the fight. If your ordnance goes astray- own it.

I listen to that as well and like others here, while not a fan of JT, I think he handled himself well in light of some of the moronic questions.

I'm quite encouraged by the fact that the evidence was from multiple sources, including our own. The CBC question (actually someone else asked it earlier too) about how much blame is on the US/Trump shows how little knowledge these people have about the military in general and air defence weapon control systems in particular. You might as well ask what blame the three hundred Spartans at Thermopylae had in causing some local Persian AD site commander to pull the trigger on an airliner. I don't often give Trump any slack, but (unless someone can prove that there were some US stealth aircraft around the airport spoofing the radars) I think the answer is the US bears no blame at all.

:cheers:
 

tomahawk6

Army.ca Legend
Reaction score
59
Points
530
The Iranians have the black boxes but they wont release them because it might show the aircraft was hit by a missile.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-downed-ukrainian-jetliner-us-canadian-officials-say/ar-BBYLJo2?ocid=spartanntp
 
Top