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Azerbaijani and Armenian military Clashes

CougarKing

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The return of conflict to the Caucasus region?

Azerbaijan threatens force over Nagorno-Karabakh

BAKU, Azerbaijan — President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan said Saturday his nation may resort to military force if talks with Armenia on resolving a long-standing territorial dispute produce no result.
Aliyev said he expects to hold talks next week with his Armenian counterpart, Serge Sarkisian, on resolving the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. "If that meeting fails to produce result, our hopes for negotiations will vanish," Aliyev said during a meeting with Azerbaijani refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh.

The mountainous region is an enclave in Azerbaijan that has been under control of Armenian troops and ethnic Armenian forces since a 1994 cease-fire ended six years of war that killed about 30,000 people and displaced 1 million. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute have failed.

Aliyev said Azerbaijan wants a peaceful settlement, but won't wait indefinitely. "We have the right to free our land using military force," he said.

There was no immediate comment from Armenia's government.

Aliyev repeatedly has made similar threats in the past. His latest statement could be aimed at encouraging Azerbaijanis, who are concerned that Turkey's move last month to normalize ties with Armenia could ruin hopes for regaining control over Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey has assured its ally Azerbaijan that it would continue supporting it in the dispute.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkBuA6ptP__2n_hBRmURU736Qj5wD9C4233O0
 
S.M.A. said:
The return of conflict to the Caucasus region?
A few years later, maybe ...
Dozens of people have been killed in clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed Caucasus region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia said 18 ethnic-Armenian soldiers had died in the fighting, among the worst in two decades.

Azerbaijan said it had lost 12 troops and there were unconfirmed reports of civilian deaths on both sides.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been in the hands of ethnic-Armenian separatists since a war that ended in 1994.

Russia, which has sold arms to both sides, called for an immediate ceasefire and for both sides to exercise restraint.

Azerbaijan said its armed forces had come under fire first from large-calibre artillery and grenade-launchers, and that it had taken over two strategic hills and a village.

The Armenian government said Azerbaijan had launched a "massive attack" with tanks, artillery and helicopters.

The Armenian-backed defence ministry in Karabakh said a 12-year-old boy had been killed and two other children injured.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has spoken with his Armenian and Azeri counterparts - Seyran Ohanyan and Zakir Hasanov - by phone, Interfax reported, in an effort to calm the situation ...
375px-Location_Nagorno-Karabakh2.png
More on the latest unpleasantness via Google News here.
 
Colin P said:
This has a Balkan like potential for drawing in other powers.
Pomeranian Grenadiers, prepare to move?  ;D
 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/28/armenia-azerbaijan-clashes-continue-live-news?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

For those not tracking, the heaviest fighting since 1994 has broken out, what seemed to be a small scale clash has escalated into a larger conflict between the two countries, while most are calling for diplomacy, turkey has picked sides and has been reported to be involved militarily.
 
Yes getting nasty, reserve called up, we have friends with relatives on the Azerbaijani side who are worried sick. Some video of AD systems being taken out which is interesting considering the high quality of the video.
 
suggest the Jerusalem post to find out what is what from a 'not in the U.S. perspective. Here is one sample:https://www.jpost.com/international/what-azerbaijan-wants-from-the-conflict-with-armenia-643748
 
YZT580 said:
suggest the Jerusalem post to find out what is what from a 'not in the U.S. perspective. Here is one sample:https://www.jpost.com/international/what-azerbaijan-wants-from-the-conflict-with-armenia-643748

This was interesting:

"Azeri sources say that the army decided to launch a major “counter-offensive” on Sunday along the entire front. This included using tanks, UAVs, artillery and TOS rocket launchers. Azerbaijan is a pioneering army when it comes to using UAVs tactically and strategically. It has used them to suppress enemy anti-aircraft units and videos shown on Turkish TV show numerous strikes on these units. This appears to illustrate that the drones are successful. Reporters earlier this year say Azerbaijan acquired Israel’s SkyStriker drones. According to the Drone Data Book published earlier this year the Azeris also have the Aerostar and Orbiter 3 drone and Harop, Heron TP, Hermes 450 and Hermes 950, all from Israel. It also has the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2."

Good thing the CAF is keeping up with the Central Asian Republics in the 'attack drone' field. Or not :)
 
Very interesting developments here. I believe Iran by proxy is involved on the Azerbaijani side. Do you guys think the US led hegemony will back the Armenians, possibly inflaming already strained tensions in the area?
 
FMoore7 said:
Very interesting developments here. I believe Iran by proxy is involved on the Azerbaijani side. Do you guys think the US led hegemony will back the Armenians, possibly inflaming already strained tensions in the area?

No for Trump.
More likely yes for Biden.
 
Upon further reading, it sounds like Iran exerts no small influence over Armenia as well. Interesting. Some articles I have read indicate Iran could play the 'mediator' role. This could certainly get dicey.
 
FMoore7 said:
Upon further reading, it sounds like Iran exerts no small influence over Armenia as well. Interesting. Some articles I have read indicate Iran could play the 'mediator' role. This could certainly get dicey.

This is a conflict that can spill over easily. Turkey has been against Armenia since the sawn of time pretty much so the fact it has been antagonistic in this situation, emboldening Azerbaijan's choice to escalate the situation. This will get bloodied quickly before any solution is found.
 
Keep in mind that Russia is very pro-Armenian (Orthodox Christian churches and all that) and could well retaliate (and also in Syria) if Turkey's clear support for fellow-Turk Azeris gets too serious--there are reports that Turks are sending significant numbers of Syrian mercenaries to Azebaijan, by air via Iran it seems (apparently US got Georgia to block its air space).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/28/azerbaijan-denies-turkey-sent-it-fighters-from-syria

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/syrian-rebel-fighters-prepare-to-deploy-to-azerbaijan-in-sign-of-turkeys-ambition

And note that besides being on opposite sides on Nagorno-Karabakh and in Syria, in Libya Turkey heavily backs Tripoli gov't and Russia the rebel Haftar--reports of both sides sending their Syrian mercenaries there plus serious equipment.

Mark
Ottawa



 
Canada has appeared to have closer relations with Azerbaijan than with Armenia. There's even a company called AZCAN that is a joint Azerbaijanian-Canadian defence contractor.
 
Legally, international law seems to be on Azerbaijan's side, the UNSC in the 90s passed a resolution calling for Armenia to withdraw, if Armenia really did strike first here then Azerbaijan can simply claim while acting in self defense it will enforce international law to restore it's territorial integrity.
 
https://globalnews.ca/news/7366059/armenias-defense-ministry-warplane-shot-down-turkish-fighter-jet/?utm_medium=Facebook&utm_source=GlobalNews


Armenia is claiming Turkish F-16's engaged and downed a SU-25 today. Turkey denys this, but I would put money on them have actually done it. Major escalation for the region which could signal Ankara is more willing to get involved. I would love to know what is going on regarding Turkish troop movements right now. If brigades start moving to the Armenian border, I would bet you would see turkish troops cross the border within a few weeks.
 
Start of  good background article by Mark Mackinnon (excellent reporter) in Globe and Mail:

Why is the ‘frozen conflict’ between Azerbaijan and Armenia heating up now?
For years, the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been a bone of contention between two bordering countries, but now it risks becoming a new front in a war of influence between Turkey and Russia

For more than a quarter-century, the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been listed as the site of one of the world’s “frozen conflicts,” a place where the warring parties, Armenia and Azerbaijan, have largely stopped fighting – even though the grievances never went away.

The problem with a frozen conflict is that either side can heat it up on a moment’s notice, as happened Sunday when something close to full-scale war erupted again in the South Caucasus region, leaving dozens dead and hundreds injured over the first day and a half of combat. The fighting risks becoming a third front – after Syria and Libya – in a proxy war between Turkey, which supports Azerbaijan, and Russia, which is treaty-bound to defend Armenia [emphasis added--but not I gather Nagorno_Karabakh itself]While the fighting Sunday and Monday was confined to Nagorno-Karabakh itself – which has its own military and is ruled by a local government that claims to be independent (but is effectively an arm of the Armenian state) – there were worries it could turn into a direct conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tensions rose even higher Monday when Armenia accused Turkey of having a “direct presence on the ground” in the form of Turkish military advisers fighting alongside Azerbaijani troops.

On Monday [Sept. 28], Azerbaijani state television showed the country’s troops using heavy artillery to target hills in the distance, while Armenia’s Ministry of Defence posted a video on its Twitter account of what appear to be Azerbaijani tanks being hit by missiles as they attempt to advance. Each side has accused the other of intentionally targeting civilians.

While the fighting Sunday and Monday was confined to Nagorno-Karabakh itself – which has its own military and is ruled by a local government that claims to be independent (but is effectively an arm of the Armenian state) – there were worries it could turn into a direct conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tensions rose even higher Monday when Armenia accused Turkey of having a “direct presence on the ground” in the form of Turkish military advisers fighting alongside Azerbaijani troops.

“We are definitely one step away from large-scale war in the region,” said Olesya Vartanyan, a senior South Caucasus analyst for the International Crisis Group. She said that while flare-ups in the fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh were not uncommon, this round appeared to be of a different magnitude. “We have been seeing pictures, videos, of Azerbaijani heavy weapons – artillery, tanks, helicopters – on all the front line, which is 200 kilometres long. This is definitely not happening because of one small, localized trigger.”

Both sides have accused each other of instigating the latest round of fighting, but it’s Azerbaijan that has an interest in changing the status quo. Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnically Armenian region that was given to Azerbaijan while both countries were part of the Soviet Union, has been under the control of ethnic Armenian separatists since a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994. That agreement ended a three-year war that had killed more than 30,000 people...
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-why-is-the-frozen-conflict-between-azerbaijan-and-armenia-heating-up/

Mark
Ottawa
 
https://in.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-azerbaijan-russia-lavrov/russias-lavrov-says-moscow-willing-to-host-azeri-and-armenian-counterparts-for-talks-idUSKBN26L33G

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN26L10T

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/09/30/armenia-azerbaijan-reject-russia-mediated-talks-as-fighting-rages-over-karabakh-a71599

Both sides have rejected diplomacy to solve the current situation indicating both want a military solution to settle this once and for all. Armenia has also ruled out calling in Russia and the CIS for assistance, I feel this may change if Turkey gets more involved. With Turkey further isolating it self from NATO on it's positions on various issues, one must start to wonder if the alliance really needs to cut Turkey loose before it is too late.
 
An interesting timing coincidence between this conflict and the start of Azerbaijan's energy shipments to Europe:

Energy markets shrug off Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, for now
By JULIAN LEE on 9/28/2020

(Bloomberg) --With weeks to go before Azerbaijan is due to start piping gas to the European Union, a decades-old conflict with its Eurasian neighbor Armenia is flaring up again.

So far, oil and gas markets have yet to be spooked by the conflict -- perhaps because global energy demand was drastically reduced by the Covid-19 pandemic, meaning producers the world over have spare capacity should the worst-case scenario arise -- the bombing of the pipeline and an ensuing environmental disaster. In normal times, a material disruption would likely boost energy prices.

The conflict centers on the Nagorno-Karabakh region claimed by both countries. In theory, it has the potential to disrupt oil and gas flows from Azerbaijan, since export pipelines from the Caspian Sea region’s second-biggest crude producer run within just 10 miles of its border with Armenia.

Azerbaijan exports the vast majority of its crude oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to an export terminal on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Additional volumes are pumped to the Black Sea port of Supsa in Georgia. Natural gas exports flow through the South Caucasus pipeline to Georgia and Turkey, and are due to reach EU markets later this year. All three run in parallel through Azerbaijan.

Most of the oil and gas pumped through the lines is produced by two consortia led by BP Plc, which lift oil from the Azeri, Chirag and Gunashli fields and gas from the Shah Deniz deposit in the Caspian Sea. Small volumes of crude from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on the eastern shore of the Caspian are also pumped through the BTC pipeline. It has a capacity of 1.2 million barrels a day, but carries less than half that in practice. Another 80,000 barrels a day flow to Supsa.

Azerbaijan also pumps gas through an export pipeline that runs alongside its oil conduits. In 2019, the country delivered 9.2 billion cubic meters (325 billion cubic feet) of gas to Turkey through the South Caucasus Pipeline. That line is part of the 4,000 km, U.S.-backed, Southern Gas Corridor, which cost BP and partners around $40 billion to build. Azerbaijan is due to begin gas deliveries to Italy and Greece through the line next month. Those flows could meet abut 3% of the EU’s gas imports, although the bloc has ample sources of alternative supplies.

While the proximity of the pipelines to the border puts them at potential risk, Armenia has not attacked the lines during previous escalations in the conflict between the two countries, which has been simmering for almost 30 years.

Importantly, the coronavirus has led to a surplus of oil and gas production capacity worldwide. Oil demand will be 7.1% lower this quarter than it was a year earlier, according to the International Energy Agency. Nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia responded to that weakness by pumping less crude, but if called for, they could easily bring those barrels back onto the market.

Back in June, the IEA was predicting a 4% drop in gas consumption this year, twice the decline seen during the 2008-09 financial crisis. That only exacerbated a glut that already existed because of excess supply.

Hard to Hit

Buried up to two meters below the ground, the pipelines wouldn’t make easy targets, and Armenia would certainly be blamed for any environmental damage resulting from a breach.

In 2008, Georgia’s National Security Council claimed the BTC line was targeted by Russian missiles, an allegation Russia denied. An earlier attack on the line in Turkey, claimed by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, closed the line for several weeks in the same year.

Azerbaijan has few alternatives to ship its crude, and none for its gas. Some oil could be sent for export via a pipeline to Russia, but that would depend on being able to strike a deal with its northern neighbor, which has traditionally sided with Armenia in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Oil markets, though, don’t seem particularly worried by any potential disruption to exports of Azeri crude, with Brent crude little changed on the day and volumes low. Natural gas futures are similarly becalmed.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/9/28/energy-markets-shrug-off-azerbaijan-armenia-conflict-for-now
 
Johnny Turk should never wonder why they will never be a part of the EU.
 
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