CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Remius]

So…Ford is about to appear on CNN about responding to Trump tariffs etc.

 

[Quirky]

Hope you keep saying that if/when prices rise, people get laid off, the economy slowing down & a drop in the Canadian dollar if/when 25% across-the-board tariffs hit - or will all that be Trudeau's fault?

Incompetent leadership and policies which Canadians kept supporting. Hope the legalized pot was worth it.

 

[The Bread Guy]

A little bit on the "how" ....

How Trump could declare a national emergency to hit Canada with 25 per cent tariffs

WASHINGTON - United States president-elect Donald Trump may declare a national emergency in order to turn his threat to slap Canada with 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs into a reality.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

And if you're interested in the specific tool being eyed ....

International Emergency Economic Powers Act - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

... as well as a bit more detailed take on Presidential powers on trade attached.

 

[Brad Sallows]

CATO on presidential tariff powers, last October.

 

[dimsum]

A little bit on the "how" ....

How Trump could declare a national emergency to hit Canada with 25 per cent tariffs

WASHINGTON - United States president-elect Donald Trump may declare a national emergency in order to turn his threat to slap Canada with 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs into a reality.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

And if you're interested in the specific tool being eyed ....

International Emergency Economic Powers Act - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

... as well as a bit more detailed take on Presidential powers on trade attached.

Not sure how a trade deficit with Canada counts as “an unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States” as per the definition of the IEEPA, but here we are.

 

[The Bread Guy]

To the extent unity of policy is desirable, it's unity between the federal government and provinces, not unity between the parties sitting in the House - particularly if one of them has a majority.

In our federal system, unity across provinces is key, especially with stuff where both feds & provinces have a finger in the pie, but in another era, consensus was a good thing to get even in majority government situations.

Then again, lookit the veterans package we got when a minority government stick handled unanimous approval, so it ain't always a perfect way to go either, admittedly

I just overheard something on someone's TV that sounded like Jagmeet Singh calling for measures to make the US feel pain.

That sounds like this.

Canada must ‘shut off’ critical minerals to U.S. to counter Trump: Singh - National | Globalnews.ca

'Donald Trump is not rational. You can't discuss a plan over a meal with him,' NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said while calling on Canada to stop critical mineral exports to the U.S.

globalnews.ca

Singh calls for party leaders to stop Trump’s tax with retaliation

TORONTO—NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is calling on Canada's party leaders to withhold targeted critical minerals that America needs in addition to implementing retaliatory tariffs if American President Donald Trump moves ahead with his punishing 25 per cent tax on all Canadian goods.

www.ndp.ca

That idea is somewhere between foolishly counterproductive and dangerously stupid. Tariffs will cause enough pain to US consumers, and they can only blame their own government.

And you think POTUS47 isn't going to blame price hikes, job losses and other bad stuff on Canada and Mexico not doing what they've been told to do? You have more faith in the guy being forthright and completely honest about this than I do.

Canada should continue selling Americans whatever they want to buy, and let them deal with the hardship of their self-imposed economic damage.

Selling them whatever they want to buy, by itself, may not work given the point re: who's POTUS47 going to blame for the impact.

We should focus on mitigation under our entire control which would be economically advantageous regardless of what the US does.

1000% - and I'm not hearing details from either Team Blue or Team Red about this, outside of both sides saying some sort of help of some kind will be needed to deal with the impacts.

 

[Brad Sallows]

And you think POTUS47 isn't going to blame price hikes, job losses and other bad stuff on Canada and Mexico not doing what they've been told to do? You have more faith in the guy being forthright and completely honest about this than I do.

He can try. He won't (shouldn't) have the backing of Democrats, NeverTrumpers, and conservatives who are economically literate.

Selling them whatever they want to buy, by itself, may not work given the point re: who's POTUS47 going to blame for the impact.

Whatever we do doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than the alternatives. I suppose we're a little bit f*cked if Trump persists in blaming Canada; I suppose we're a lot f*cked if we add to the damage. I prefer "little bit". I don't care about "what if Trump...". There are concrete things we can do to improve domestic trade flows and reduce the dead hands of governments in Canada. There isn't really any time to waste waiting for leadership selections and elections - start immediately. The federal government may be pinned in place because the fortunes of the LPC always surpass those of the country regardless of the crisis, but the provinces are not similarly encumbered.

1000% - and I'm not hearing details from either Team Blue or Team Red about this, outside of both sides saying some sort of help of some kind will be needed to deal with the impacts.

Classic Canadian solution - subsidize chosen beneficiaries, rather than clear out barriers to opportunities that people can take up for themselves. Both the LPC and CPC have people who know what could be done to goose productive output in Canada; they just have to grow a spine and cast out their own malingering and ideologically blinkered sub-factions. If they can't do it, it's another piece of evidence against the mythical existence of "good people in government" ever being more than bench-warmers.

 

[suffolkowner]

im sure there will be some targeted tariffs applied just like the last time. At 25% WCS becomes the most expensive oil in the world. I hope we just have to buy some HIMARS.

 

[KevinB]

I think we (and I include myself) are being a bit naive. Border, defence etc are just the excuse he wants to be able to declare a national emergency to enact those tariffs. There is likely way more to this. The fact is that we could be at 5% defence spending and build a wall on our border. Those tariffs are coming and they are for a reason.

You are an easy target - the solution just maybe is not be such a punching bag.

 

[Haggis]

1000% - and I'm not hearing details from either Team Blue or Team Red about this, outside of both sides saying some sort of help of some kind will be needed to deal with the impacts.

If you think we have a crushing deficit now, just wait until the next government has to roll out CERB 2025/26 to deal with the economic impact of these tariffs. Because it worked so well the last time.

 

[Kirkhill]

1000% - and I'm not hearing details from either Team Blue or Team Red about this, outside of both sides saying some sort of help of some kind will be needed to deal with the impacts.

I think we might get some Team Blue clues from these:

Poilievre Calls For Expansion Of Canadian Energy Infrastructure To Be Free Of U.S. Tariffs On Energy

Canadian energy — including building LNG plants, pipelines, refineries, upgraders and other infrastructure — was front and centre on Thursday as Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre held his first press conference since the resignation of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau earlier in...

www.dobenergy.com

Canada is ‘selling oil and gas at a massive price discount,’ Poilievre says | Watch News Videos Online

Watch Canada is ‘selling oil and gas at a massive price discount,’ Poilievre says Video Online, on GlobalNews.ca

globalnews.ca

‘Great Deal’: Trudeau’s Conservative Rival Makes Energy Pitch to Trump

Since winning the US election, Donald Trump has taunted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau by calling him governor of a 51st US state, threatened 25% tariffs, and vented that the US is getting ripped off by its northern neighbor because of a trade deficit.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Pierre Poilievre will push LNG, SMRs and continued oil production

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre took some time to speak about energy during his keynote speech to the Conservative national policy convention in Quebec City on Sept. 8.In those comments, he spoke about natural liquefaction extensively, as well as small modular reactors, hydroelectricity...

pipelineonline.ca

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-europe-lng-exports-poilievre-1.6770852

My take is that he wants to unlock the resources and get them to tide water to sell to the international market, keeping in mind that we already have one really good customer.

 

[dimsum]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878816522325696642

another failed mission to the orange man

Did I call it or did I call it?

It wasn’t a negotiation tactic - he was going to do it all along.

 

[KevinB]

Did I call it or did I call it?

It wasn’t a negotiation tactic - he was going to do it all along.

It is a negotiation tactic. Canada’s issue is solely that doesn’t understand what is being discussed at the adult table.

No shit they are coming, that is part of Trumpian negotiating. They are a death sentence to both parties, we are just so much larger that the poison kills you before us.

So Canada can course correct, or crumble.

 

[dimsum]

It is a negotiation tactic. Canada’s issue is solely that doesn’t understand what is being discussed at the adult table.

No shit they are coming, that is part of Trumpian negotiating. They are a death sentence to both parties, we are just so much larger that the poison kills you before us.

So Canada can course correct, or crumble.

Part of me really wants to say “F it” and let both crumble. Throw some nukes in for kicks.

But apparently I’m not supposed to say that in public.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Did I call it or did I call it?

It wasn’t a negotiation tactic - he was going to do it all along.

She did what any good Premier should do, she represented her people and their economic interests.

I don't fault her, she represents a province that actually has something to offer and wants the best for her people.

Maybe if we had national leader stirring us through this in a team Canada effort I could link with your position, but our governments selfish and self destructive ways have put us here. So good on Danielle Smith for representing her people and their situation.

 

[Remius]

She did what any good Premier should do, she represented her people and their economic interests.

Right and it got her nothing. When others go it’s to bend the knee, when she goes it’s all about representing…

I don't fault her, she represents a province that actually has something to offer and wants the best for her people.

The problem is throwing wrenches by handicapping the whole team.

Maybe if we had national leader stirring us through this in a team Canada effort I could link with your position, but our governments selfish and self destructive ways have put us here.

I don’t think it matters who is in charge. Trump is going to Trump. Again, he’s playing a bigger game. I mentioned it above. It has nothing to do with our border or our NATO spending (those are just the excuses he’s using).

So good on Danielle Smith for representing her people and their situation.

Looks like all it did is weaken our and her position.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Right and it got her nothing. When others go it’s to bend the knee, when she goes it’s all about representing…

Neither you or I know what came out of that.

The problem is throwing wrenches by handicapping the whole team.

The same team the takes AB wealth and then throws wrenches into their plans ?

I don’t think it matters who is in charge. Trump is going to Trump. Again, he’s playing a bigger game. I mentioned it above. It has nothing to do with our border or our NATO spending (those are just the excuses he’s using).

I guess we will have to wait and see.

Looks like all it did is weaken our and her position.

I don't think you or I know what it did. Who knows.

 

[Remius]

Neither you or I know what came out of that.

That wasn’t what I was saying. I point to the hypocrisy of one side going “bad” other side going “good”

The same team the takes AB wealth and then throws wrenches into their plans ?

This is Canada. Some people here have forgotten they are part of that.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

We will. The 20th is around the corner. I will be more than happy to be proven wrong. But again. Panama, Greenland and Canada. Three important parts of his plan. Those are the end game. Not our border and not our defence spending.

I don't think you or I know what it did. Who knows.

She telegraphed to Trump that if Canada tries to use energy (specifically oil) as a counter she’ll cause trouble here. Exactly what he wants. It was very publicly stated.

 

[suffolkowner]

Neither you or I know what came out of that.



The same team the takes AB wealth and then throws wrenches into their plans ?



I guess we will have to wait and see.



I don't think you or I know what it did. Who knows.

well we have her word and his

 

[Halifax Tar]

That wasn’t what I was saying. I point to the hypocrisy of one side going “bad” other side going “good”

Angle of view, eh ?

This is Canada. Some people here have forgotten they are part of that.

I would argue this is forgotten Canadians now standing up with a voice.

We will. The 20th is around the corner. I will be more than happy to be proven wrong. But again. Panama, Greenland and Canada. Three important parts of his plan. Those are the end game. Not our border and not our defence spending.

She telegraphed to Trump that if Canada tries to use energy (specifically oil) as a counter she’ll cause trouble here. Exactly what he wants. It was very publicly stated.

And if she does, I can't blame her.