Here comes trouble

[54/102 CEF]

Check out the failed states index from Foreign Affairs Magazine - especially the map

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3420

All should at least skim it.

There`s trouble I tell you - trouble in River City!

 

[foerestedwarrior]

Interesting....

Especially this.

 

[Kirkhill]

And in the middle of that big red area that is the size of Canada, we find Darfur. Not many good basing options in neighbouring states.

 

[GAP]

Think of it as job security

 

[Wookilar]

And what, I count ....12 of the "TOP 20" that we've already been to or still are at. Some of the names have changed recently, so it's getting hard to tell.

 

[joaquim]

In my mind, the most worrisome is Pakistan, because it is the only nuclear state. This study says it is getting worse, not better.

Trouble indeed.

Joaquim, a concerned civilian

 

[GAP]

Wasn't there a W5 documentary on nuclear weapons and the guy who developed them for Pakistan on TV recently? The point I am trying to make is at the time they were successful, the weapon was labeled as "Islamic Bomb".

Couple that little scenario with the accusations of Pakistan funding and supporting the Taliban has chilling potential.

 

[garb811]

...and with North Korea at #14 probably being very close to being a nuclear power or already there, depending on who you believe, and throwing Russia in at #43...

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

Huh.  We got totally snubbed.  Didn't even make the top 60.  :crybaby:

 

[foerestedwarrior]

Huh.  We got totally snubbed.  Didn't even make the top 60.   :crybaby:

even worse....china made it in at 57 :crybaby: :crybaby: ;D

 

[GAP]

There's still hope!!!

We have Atomic Energy of Canada and Chalk River....a couple of years ago they irradiated some golf balls to see if they flew farther.

See there...now we not only have nuclear devices, but a delivery system !! ;D

 

[foerestedwarrior]

There's still hope!!!

We have Atomic Energy of Canada and Chalk River....a couple of years ago they irradiated some golf balls to see if they flew farther.

See there...now we not only have nuclear devices, but a delivery system !! ;D

LOL, so now we will sign out a 9 iron and a box of balls to go to war with....sweet!!!! but do we have to wear the silly pants?

 

[rz350]

That list doesnt seem right. I dont think China and Russia have a place on failed states index. Maybe they are not free democracys. But they are both regional powers that are hardly in contast chaos with a weak goverment.

 

[54/102 CEF]

That list doesnt seem right. I dont think China and Russia have a place on failed states index. Maybe they are not free democracys. But they are both regional powers that are hardly in contast chaos with a weak goverment.

Russia has declining population, poor healthcare, not open to immigration, quirky authoritarian rule, among other things, they have big challenges but a reformed banking and transportation sector. All is not lost for Russia - but they have lots of work to do.

Now here's a quiz!

Where should the Army go for deployments next?

Pick a place that`s sunny and has lots of flies - then get a TAN number

Hint - check the low income group of countries - these are the trouble spots for now into the future

http://www.unctad.org/Templates/WebFlyer.asp?intItemID=2169&lang=1

The stuff I am reading for my course says conflict declines when they go above $3000 per capita GDP US$

 

[GAP]

but do we have to wear the silly pants?

Yep...some has to look silly!!! ;D

 

[a_majoor]

That list doesnt seem right. I dont think China and Russia have a place on failed states index. Maybe they are not free democracys. But they are both regional powers that are hardly in contast chaos with a weak goverment.

Russia is sliding into chaos for many of the reasons cited above, and China is a brittle authoratarian state overlaid on an unstable population base. Their demographics are skewed for decades to come with the one child per family law, and there is a huge disparity between the "rich" southern China (which has coastal cities that allow access to the world market) and the more rural northern China, which is extremely poor.

We can also add potential unrest in Western China with its large and mostly unassimilated Islamic population, which is more related to the peoples of Central Asia than to the Han Chinese. (We should also not forget conquered peoples like the Tibetans and China's view of democratic Tiawan as a dangerous competitor for legitimacy).

Now lets throw a growing dependency on overseas resources like Iranian and Sudanese oil into the mix, and severe environmental stress caused by poorly planned and executed policies on resource management, agriculture, pollution etc. (say thanks to Karl Marx and central planning, or read Friedrich Hayek to find out why this goes wrong....always).

I suspect the report is taking into account various stresses that the Chinese Communist party is ill equipped to handle, and the consequences of an imposion are not pretty.

 

[Daidalous]

Anyone notice the trend, that most of these states are ex-colonies of former imperial powers. (France, England, German, USA etc)

 

[54/102 CEF]

Russia is sliding into chaos for many of the reasons cited above, and China is a brittle authoratarian state overlaid on an unstable population base. Their demographics are skewed for decades to come with the one child per family law, and there is a huge disparity between the "rich" southern China (which has coastal cities that allow access to the world market) and the more rural northern China, which is extremely poor.

........

I suspect the report is taking into account various stresses that the Chinese Communist party is ill equipped to handle, and the consequences of an imposion are not pretty.

More China stuff

They need oil and cars. Their population is in decline due to the 1 baby per family program. In 20 years they`ll have a huge retirement problem.

They basically can`t afford a war http://www.worldthreats.com/Asia/Chinese_model.htm

More stuff you don`t see in North American media here http://www.worldthreats.com/

An article on China by a guy who the CDS thinks is cool http://www.keepmedia.com/pubs/Esquire/2005/11/01/1037812?refId=19

Check the "Walking Points" link at bottom left or article above - some amazing figures ref SOF FORCES

More from the CDS`s bud http://thomaspmbarnett.com/articles/index.htm

 

[Kirkhill]

Anyone notice the trend, that most of these states are ex-colonies of former imperial powers. (France, England, German, USA etc)

Useful observation Daidalous.  The territory occupied by these states was unstable in the past and a source of scourges like the Barbary pirates that raided Northern Europe, Britain included, to take slaves.  In other parts of the world the local tribes were interrupting sea-lanes and caravan trails - just as they still are in Southern Iraq.  Arguably the desire to bring order to a chaotic environment so as to make trade profitable was the real reason for the establishment of colonial jurisdictions which ultimately became separate states.

The imperial project failed as much due to hasty departures as due the imposition of borders in the first place.  Prior to the imperials there was no central authority with a firm grip on the territory.

By the way, it was a British Empire, not an English Empire.  ;D

Cheers.

 

[paracowboy]

The territory occupied by these states was unstable in the past and a source of scourges like the Barbary pirates that raided Northern Europe, Britain included, to take slaves.  In other parts of the world the local tribes were interrupting sea-lanes and caravan trails - just as they still are in Southern Iraq.   

nonsense! The entier world, aside from those parts unfortunately inhabited by Europeans -oddly, Europe being one of them - were all utopias of peace and prosperity, with noble savages living as one with Nature and each other. It was only when the Evil Fat White Guys (TM) began to conquer and enslave in their inherent greed and lust for destruction, that the Serpent was released into the Garden.

Don't you know nuthin'?