- Reaction score
- 5,545
- Points
- 1,260
E.R. Campbell said:...
Dion must go – but it’s not obvious that either Ignatieff or Rae have broad enough support in the Liberal Party to be the ‘leader’ who can unite the party and beat Harper in, say, 2010 or, maybe, even 2011. The Trudeau/Turner and Chrétien/Martin ‘wars’ still rage – and an Ignatieff vs. Rae, right vs. left warmay beis the last thing the Liberals need. Several morning radio news reports suggested that John Manley might want to jump in, for a few years, to oversee the restoration of Liberal fortunes.
Caveat lector: I know John Manley; I like and respect him, too.
I think he could reunite the Liberals and aim them towards a more traditional liberal and Liberal space in the political spectrum. But: he’s old; not as old as either Ignatieff (born in 1947) or Rae (1948) but older than Harper (1959) or Jim Prentice (1956) in an era that positively worships youth. Bigger BUT: he might just be another St Laurent: someone Canadians actually ‘like’ (they ‘liked’ Mike Pearson and Jean Chrétien, too) but, generally, Canadian PMs (Diefenbaker, Trudeau, Mulroney and Harper) are not much liked, even when some Canadian adore them. St Laurent parlayed ‘like’ and good, solid administration into several years of Liberal power just when Canadians were truly sick and tired of the Liberals under Mackenzie King.
Now, there will be a faction in the Liberal Party of Canada that will want a new, English leader, who can serve for about five years, hopefully (for Liberals) winning a minority government in 2010/11 so that, in 2013/14 Justin Trudeau (born 1971) can perform well as a minister and then take over (from an ‘old’ leader) as leader/’saviour’. It’s more hope and dream than real ambition – for now. Ignatieff or Rae are the best choices for the Trudeaumaniacs.
But there are other contenders: Martha Hall Findlay (born 1959, same year as Harper), a ‘right’ wing Liberal, and Gerard Kennedy (born 1960), a ‘loony leftie,’ for example who would perpetuate the Trudeau/Turner and Chrétien/Martin wars for another generation and frustrate the ambitions of the Trudeaumaniacs. ...
According to his morning’s papers pretty much everyone, maybe even including
But Lawrence Martin offers a broader look at all the leaders (not including Ms. May who is not, really, a Canadian political leader) in this article reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081015.wcomartin16/BNStory/politics/home
The forecast: Dion out by year's end, Harper before the next vote
LAWRENCE MARTIN
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
October 16, 2008 at 12:00 AM EDT
This was the election that shouldn't have been held, that attracted a dismal turnout, that didn't change anything – but could well change everything.
Stéphane Dion will be out as Liberal leader by year's end. Stephen Harper is likely to follow him before the next election. Jack Layton, despite having the best showing of any leader in Tuesday's vote, could well depart next year. And so could Gilles Duceppe.
The Liberals will move back to the political centre. The Tories will face some internal bitterness for having gone down on bended knee to woo Quebec and getting nothing in return for their fawning efforts. The Greens will sink more than swim because they are a single-issue party whose single issue has been overrun by apprehended economic perdition.
Mr. Harper will face no internal challenge for his leadership. Any time you increase your seat total by as much as he did, you have a respectable result. His challenge was to be seen knocking on the majority door and, by scoring more than 140 seats, he did just that.
But, by next year, the Liberals will have a new leader who will be much more popular than Mr. Dion. There is likely to be a deepening, American-induced recession. Circumstances for the Prime Minister will be twice as tough as they were in this campaign. Stephen Harper will take the hint, behold declining poll numbers, realize the Big Win isn't there, and step out gracefully – as a great builder of the party and as a winner. He won't make the mistake that so many do, hanging on for glory's last shot and falling in the process.
On Tuesday, despite all the factors working in his favour, he increased his party's popular vote by only 1 percentage point. He was running behind his party in popularity by the end of the campaign. He has had three election attempts. His best hope would have been for Mr. Dion to stay on, but he took away that possibility by inflicting so much damage on the Liberal captain. Now he is likely to face either Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff, both of whom have more personal appeal and who are just as strong intellectually. There will be other challengers for the Liberal crown, but the Rae and Iggy machines are in place from the last race.
The tenacious Mr. Dion will be determined to stay on, but the party won't allow it. The Liberals simply cannot afford half a year of leadership wrangling before a review vote and then another half a year of it before a leadership convention.
Jack Layton's NDP increased its seat total by 20 per cent. But because he raised such high expectations with his talk of running for prime minister, the accomplishment will be less appreciated. Having taken three runs, he could very well, like Mr. Harper, decide to go out on a positive note.
When the House of Commons returns, it will be a smooth ride for the PM. Mr. Harper had a minority last time and ran the place like he had a landslide. It will be the same, perhaps even easier, for him now. Canadians won't want another election, having just had four in eight years.
The difficulty for Mr. Harper will be in coming up with a new Quebec strategy. Having done all that catering to the province – nation status and all – how much more can he be expected to do? Yes, he dropped the ball on a couple of Quebec files, but those mistakes hardly merited the inflammatory francophone reaction. The election result raises the question whether any non-Quebecker can win a large number of seats in that province.
If there's any consolation for the Liberals, the election brought more star power to the party. Justin Trudeau, Marc Garneau and Gerard Kennedy will add to an already formidable front bench.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, were unable to attract new star candidates. One-man governments tend not to do that. In his victory address, Mr. Harper spoke of a need for less partisanship. It was a welcome thought. But odds are, we won't see much change in his leadership style.
His divide-and-conquer strategy hasn't been a total success but enough to tide him over until the combination of hard times and a hard opponent convince him it's time to pass the blowtorch.
I think Martin might be on the right track.
In my opinion Harper is unlikely to be able to win a majority unless, miraculously, this government last for four years, and, during that time, the economy rebounds to something better than late spring 2008 levels (when the TSX was at an all time high). He might decide, over the next year or so that it is better to step aside and allow another, more charismatic (or at least less disliked) Conservative to lead the party to another term in office – Jim Prentice comes to mind as one likely leader, but it isn’t just the Conservatives who have, as Martin says, a “formidable front bench” – if one could use only the Conservative MPs from BC and Alberta one could build a very good cabinet.
Also, I think Martin is right about Layton. His challenge was to duplicate Ed Broadbent’s seat count (in a smaller parliament) and vote share: he failed. But he did better, twice, than Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough could manage so he can leave on a “high note” and make room for e.g. Judy Wasylycia-Leis (who I think is the ‘best’ NDP MP), Joe Comartin or Tom Mulcair.