Moreover, if NCO shortages are going to be an issue, roughly how long til the two balance out, and the troops who've come in in the apst few years are in a position to become instructors to help make up the shortfall?
Short answer.....it will take years to bring the forces up.
Now the bigger question that is underlying your post.....will the standards be "watered down" to allow for the influx?
I sure as heellll don't think so.
Standards have been steadily dropping over the past 15 years or so, to the point that persons having "undesirable traits" have gotten in and allowed to flourish.
Everyone knows the ones I'm talking about and every unit has them. They are the ones that are constantly late, never volunteering for tasks, never have their act together on ex or in theater and have to be literally hand held through the simplest of tasks with constant supervision.
These "wasts of rations" have somehow gotten through the system and are now the pointy end's problems....which I'm sure the units love to receive.
We just received a few to my Regiment and most are standard, requiring a bit of tweeking to bring them up to par after spending so much time at either the school or in a PAT platoon.
However we got one that spent a couple of years at the school and failed his driver course a few times and arrived here.....he's being sorted out.
A few of them are cocky with less time in than my shower sandals...and they are going to be sorted out in the next few months prior to us going out on the next Roto.
Had overheard one talking to his troop MCpl the other day....conversation went something like this:
MCpl: How's it going Tpr ________ I just got done teaching your little brother....he's a pretty keen soldier, you got alot to live up to.
Tpr: (cockily) He takes after his older brother. *
MCpl: Oh really? We'll see about that and I'll decide.
Geesh....tried not to rant on this topic. Need more coffee I guess.
Regards
* not standing to attention, no MCpl at the end, chewing gum....need I say more?