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Ukraine - Superthread

The Bread Guy

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Labatt's doing its part ...
labatt_chernigivske.jpg
 

Czech_pivo

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Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack. Yes yes they have the nukes. But an air and ground offensive? I don't see them having much.
The only things that the Lithuanians are not allowing are all products/goods that are on the EU sanctions lists. They are NOT stopping the flow of people or of goods/products not on the sanctions list.
 

Czech_pivo

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Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack. Yes yes they have the nukes. But an air and ground offensive? I don't see them having much.
Also, if you think that Poles are backing the Ukrainians to the hilt, I can assure you that they'd be willing to go even farther for the Lithuanians - remember, they were once called the "Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth'.
 

rmc_wannabe

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Also, if you think that Poles are backing the Ukrainians to the hilt, I can assure you that they'd be willing to go even farther for the Lithuanians - remember, they were once called the "Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth'.
Hell even if the Lithuanians weren't close cousins with the Poles, I'm sure they would be leading the charge if Russia tried to start shit over Królewiec. Even before the Iron Curtain fell, there were calls for it to return to either German or Polish hands. Ever since, its been a massive security risk and thorn in the sides of the Baltic states.
 

MilEME09

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Hell even if the Lithuanians weren't close cousins with the Poles, I'm sure they would be leading the charge if Russia tried to start shit over Królewiec. Even before the Iron Curtain fell, there were calls for it to return to either German or Polish hands. Ever since, its been a massive security risk and thorn in the sides of the Baltic states.
Time for a little green men operation?
 

Humphrey Bogart

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And here we have a good reminder about what the Military Police were really created for: to arrest deserters and shirkers to keep the meat close to the grinder ;)
LOL,

I Knew a guy that served in 2REP of the FFL and he said he was pretty sure the sole purpose of the Police Militaire was to wait at the Corsican Ferry terminal and lay asswhoopings on anyone who chose to attempt to Desert.
 

MilEME09

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LOL,

I Knew a guy that served in 2REP of the FFL and he said he was pretty sure the sole purpose of the Police Militaire was to wait at the Corsican Ferry terminal and lay asswhoopings on anyone who chose to attempt to Desert.
I thought they were officially coffee taste testers for Tim Hortons? I know a now retired MP who bragged he spent 80% of a shift in a tims parking lot
 

Skysix

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Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack. Yes yes they have the nukes. But an air and ground offensive? I don't see them having much.
Hybrid war utilizing the many Russian supporters living in Latvia, the 40% of the money in the banking system that Russia controls, social media (the Russian TV channels have been blocked), Spetznatz operators and cells of Russians sabotaging the economy, infrastructure and terrorising to force a government change.

 
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Skysix

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"Militaries all over the world are closely observing the war in Ukraine, but some have proven prone to hubris — concluding that they have little to learn because they are different. It is tempting for foreign observers to attribute the failures of the Russian military to its lack of professionalism rather than the increased difficulty of waging modern war." (Anit Mukherjee, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.)


Silly question, what lessons are the "Canadian High Command" (military AND political) learning, and how are they going to change our force posture, resourcing and training?
 
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RangerRay

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"Militaries all over the world are closely observing the war in Ukraine, but some have proven prone to hubris — concluding that they have little to learn because they are different. It is tempting for foreign observers to attribute the failures of the Russian military to its lack of professionalism rather than the increased difficulty of waging modern war." (Anit Mukherjee, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.)


Silly question, what lessons are the "Canadian High Command" (military AND political) learning, and how are they going to change our force posture, resourcing and training?
My little pea brain thought there were lessons to be learned from the latest war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I doubt anyone in any of the assorted puzzle palaces in Ottawa were paying attention.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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"Militaries all over the world are closely observing the war in Ukraine, but some have proven prone to hubris — concluding that they have little to learn because they are different. It is tempting for foreign observers to attribute the failures of the Russian military to its lack of professionalism rather than the increased difficulty of waging modern war." (Anit Mukherjee, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.)


Silly question, what lessons are the "Canadian High Command" (military AND political) learning, and how are they going to change our force posture, resourcing and training?
None because we are too bloody arrogant. The CAF is completely unprepared for a conflict of this size and scale.

We would probably suffer a few very bad defeats before we eventually sorted ourselves out.
 

The Bread Guy

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Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack. Yes yes they have the nukes. But an air and ground offensive? I don't see them having much.
That's true only if USSR 2.0's only response option is military. 🍿
 

Humphrey Bogart

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Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack. Yes yes they have the nukes. But an air and ground offensive? I don't see them having much.
Well according to Western Sources, they were supposed to run out of Missiles and Munitions less than a week after the campaign began.

Then their offensive was supposed to culminate two weeks after the shift to the Donbass began (we are on day 100 and what now?)

They are firing an estimated 50,000 shells a day with no signs of running out. They've also conducted 2600+ missile strikes, again no signs they are running out.

I wouldn't count all your eggs before they've hatched. The only real prediction that 100% came true was that they were going to attack, everything else has been pretty off the mark for the most part.

Besides, there are plenty of other levers Russia can pull before this would even go full kinetic.

One thing this will do is potentially cause some civil strife in Kaliningrad. Russia doesn't necessarily need to go after Lithuania either, there are easier targets in NATO/EU that they can poke at and still count it as "a response was sent".
 

KevinB

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Well according to Western Sources, they were supposed to run out of Missiles and Munitions less than a week after the campaign began.

Then their offensive was supposed to culminate two weeks after the shift to the Donbass began (we are on day 100 and what now?)

They are firing an estimated 50,000 shells a day with no signs of running out. They've also conducted 2600+ missile strikes, again no signs they are running out.
Well their missile strikes have lessened and they are using some odd choices for missiles currently — using Air deployed Anti-ship missiles against ground targets is a sign that one may be running out of Air to Ground systems.
I wouldn't count all your eggs before they've hatched. The only real prediction that 100% came true was that they were going to attack, everything else has been pretty off the mark for the most part.

Besides, there are plenty of other levers Russia can pull before this would even go full kinetic.

One thing this will do is potentially cause some civil strife in Kaliningrad. Russia doesn't necessarily need to go after Lithuania either, there are easier targets in NATO/EU that they can poke at and still count it as "a response was sent".
 

Humphrey Bogart

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Well their missile strikes have lessened and they are using some odd choices for missiles currently — using Air deployed Anti-ship missiles against ground targets is a sign that one may be running out of Air to Ground systems.
Maybe/maybe not. I haven't seen much in the way of conclusive evidence of this. They fired another large salvo of Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea just the other day as an example.

It's similar to the "Russia can't replace it's equipment losses" line trotted out by various sources, meanwhile in the real world:


Uganda getting brand new Mi-28s from Russia.

My take is that our assessment of Russia's ability to produce weapons and replenish stockpiles is probably off the mark. The sanctions and pullout of Western Businesses basically allowed Russia to appropriate all Western assets in the Country. We seized their gold/currency reserves so it's only logical they would do the same to us. A lot of the tech we gave them was being produced locally under license.

I could be off the mark as well, but we shall just have to wait and see in a few months.
 

Good2Golf

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My little pea brain thought there were lessons to be learned from the latest war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I doubt anyone in any of the assorted puzzle palaces in Ottawa were paying attention.
RR, you would think, and they actually were paying attention, but not in the way you thought.

The Canadian government got all righteous about how the Azeris were beating up unfairly on the Armenians and restricted Canadian (American subsidiary) technology from being used in the conflict, doubling down in an earlier technology transfer suspension against Bayraktar.


So Bayraktar then transitions to indigenous technology (and some Canadian industry goes out of business…)



Then Russia invades Ukraine and UAF Bayraktar TB2 UAVs (some with legacy CAN tech, some with newer replacement TUR tech) figure prominently in actions countering RUAF incursion, and Canada reverses it’s tech restriction and allows CAN tech to be exported again, and crows about it in political systems adding it to the “We support Ukraine!” mantra.

 

Humphrey Bogart

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RR, you would think, and they actually were paying attention, but not in the way you thought.

The Canadian government got all righteous about how the Azeris were beating up unfairly on the Armenians and restricted Canadian (American subsidiary) technology from being used in the conflict, doubling down in an earlier technology transfer suspension against Bayraktar.


So Bayraktar then transitions to indigenous technology (and some Canadian industry goes out of business…)



Then Russia invades Ukraine and UAF Bayraktar TB2 UAVs (some with legacy CAN tech, some with newer replacement TUR tech) figure prominently in actions countering RUAF incursion, and Canada reverses it’s tech restriction and allows CAN tech to be exported again, and crows about it in political systems adding it to the “We support Ukraine!” mantra.

And this is a great example of why sanctions don't really work the way we think they do. Turkey produces Canadian tech under license, we sanction it and stop it. Turkey reverse engineers it and then says it's slightly different and newer "Turkish" tech.

Russia no longer has McDonalds, but..... it has all the things to make McDonalds:


Same thing with all the Military tech they have acquired. They have all the tooling and many things were produced under license in the Country.
 

Good2Golf

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That said, HB, tech use could have also been a business decision (pricing, performance, etc.) amongst nations (NATO at that), and when that option stopped, because the ‘End Use License Agreement’ became a constesable situation — we should in NO WAY think that Canada is as pure as the driven snow on EULA restrictions, and slam Germany, or France or whomever else in NATO is adding some restrictions to tech transfer into UKR - TUR went internal to its own extant product. There were a lot of huffy Canadians slamming DEU, FRA and others, yet we were doing the same elsewhere and had to actually flip-flop to support UKR. I understand that the TUR business that provided replacement EOIR systems is quite capable of producing solid NATO-grade capability on its own, with no need to copy ITAR-controlled tech. I think Bayraktar was producing capability with the best capability AND financials, which had to change slightly when Canada became affronted with where the tech was going. Interestingly, it seems as though US DoS didn’t have any issue with ITAR-controlled tech being used in AZR/ARM conflict, only Canada did (follow the interest groups in Canada that pushed for the GoC to retain/expand trade restrictions…)

Canada is not the paragon of pure benevolent innocence throughout the world that many Canadians sitting comfortably back in their Lay-Z-Boy watching CBC Newsworld, smuggly thinking how wonderful we are, is.
 
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