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The War in Ukraine

Here is a sick but believable twist on Putin's strategy. So far just under 1.3 million children have been removed from Ukraine and the occupied oblasts and scattered across Russia to reeducation camp/schools. Sone if them are already brainwashed and serving in the Russian army fighting (potentially) family members.

Hence the genocide charges against Putin and whats-her-name. He can afford 500, or 1 million casualties as the Russian population has been increased already by 1.5million. Of which about half are being programmed/incentivised to become breeders of (ideally) 8 kids starting at 19 (admitted by Putin) which will more than makeup for the (so far) 460k men taken off the battlefield in Ukraine.

This gives him/his FSB selected sucessor another whole generation of meat for the next phase of USSR 2.0 in Moldova, the 'Stans and Baltics later this century.
 
Ukraine continues its attacks on Russian occupied Crimea...

defence-blog.com

Ukrainian forces destroy Russian air defense systems in Crimea

On April 17, Ukrainian forces launched a series of missile strikes targeting the Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi, located in the occupied Crimea. The precision strike, believed to have been carried out with US-made ATACMS missiles, inflicted significant damage on Russian air defense...
defence-blog.com defence-blog.com
 
Putin's nuclear bluff and conventional gamble is about to pay off. Western resolve will fail before his men and material do. Muscovy has already declared war on the west explicitly in the media and implicitly by its actions.

Yet the west refuses to recognise it as such and respond as there are no kinetic effectors striking the west. Only long standing and highly effective info/psy/influence ops, spying and some deniable proxy or agent caused sabotage.

Hate to be in this headspace, but looking at the current situation officially and via OSINT not only in Muscovy and Ukraine, but also throughout the west, Ukraine is about to enter the post war insurgency phase unless another nuclear power (effectively only the UK, US or France) physically enters Ukraine as a peacemaking force or Ukrainian ally.

Solely attempting to impose a NATO no fly/no missile/no drone airspace above Ukraine will only work if the enforcers are willing and able to hit targets in Muscovian airspace that demonstrate hostile intent. Which means either a constant CAP with AWACS and tankers or forward basing in Ukraine. And the probable loss of airframes and lives.

Sanctions have and will continue to mostly fail unless aggressively (economic, political and kinetically) enforced. And if they have continue to have obvious carveouts that protect western interests. Only a physically enforced blockade (including by rail from NK and China) of sea and air passage into Muscovy might work.

Physically shipping all the needed missile reloads (and new systems) needed will take too long. As will 1-2 million rounds of artillery. By the time they are employable where needed the zero line will be a long way further into Ukraine, Kharkiv will be levelled and occupied as Mariupol was, and the black sea coast will be either taken or hotly contested with Odessa falling.

There will continue to be a flight of potential fighters, families and possibly some desertions as why lose everything when the west has proven, by their inaction, not to care about Ukraine or Ukrainians. Only hard core patriots will remain as insurgents (and the elderly who either can't or won't leave - often not thinking that the ethnic cleansing strategies employed by Rosgvardia and the army will continue if they are winning).

The US is checkmated by agents of influence/useful idiots and cannot even declare war or authorise any increase in direct kinetic activity in support if Ukraine even if it wanted to (unless in self defense which Putin is smart enough to avoid).

That said, if the northern block (Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia) supported directly by France (the UK can do little conventionally they are as gutted as Canada is) and possibly Holland, Denmark and Norway decide to honor their various bilateral/trilateral security agreements with Ukraine (and ignore NATO/the US as irrelevant within Europe currently) Muscovy will lose and relatively quickly. Finland and Poland alone in a pincer attack on Moscow would radically change the dynamic in Ukraine.

I suppose it is still possible that various NATO countries could release enough of their military to join a Ukrainian Legion as formed and equipped units that the tide could be turned but I see that as even less likely than actual intervention.

I hope to be quickly, dramatically and thoroughly proven wrong. But without US arms even funds from other countries or wealthy supporters/crowdsourcing is too little too late.

Ashamed to be a member of a NATO country.
 
Skysix said:
Putin's nuclear bluff and conventional gamble is about to pay off. Western resolve will fail before his men and material do. Muscovy has already declared war on the west explicitly in the media and implicitly by its actions.

Yet the west refuses to recognise it as such and respond as there are no kinetic effectors striking the west. Only long standing and highly effective info/psy/influence ops, spying and some deniable proxy or agent caused sabotage.

Hate to be in this headspace, but looking at the current situation officially and via OSINT not only in Muscovy and Ukraine, but also throughout the west, Ukraine is about to enter the post war insurgency phase unless another nuclear power (effectively only the UK, US or France) physically enters Ukraine as a peacemaking force or Ukrainian ally.

Solely attempting to impose a NATO no fly/no missile/no drone airspace above Ukraine will only work if the enforcers are willing and able to hit targets in Muscovian airspace that demonstrate hostile intent. Which means either a constant CAP with AWACS and tankers or forward basing in Ukraine. And the probable loss of airframes and lives.

Sanctions have and will continue to mostly fail unless aggressively (economic, political and kinetically) enforced. And if they have continue to have obvious carveouts that protect western interests. Only a physically enforced blockade (including by rail from NK and China) of sea and air passage into Muscovy might work.

Physically shipping all the needed missile reloads (and new systems) needed will take too long. As will 1-2 million rounds of artillery. By the time they are employable where needed the zero line will be a long way further into Ukraine, Kharkiv will be levelled and occupied as Mariupol was, and the black sea coast will be either taken or hotly contested with Odessa falling.

There will continue to be a flight of potential fighters, families and possibly some desertions as why lose everything when the west has proven, by their inaction, not to care about Ukraine or Ukrainians. Only hard core patriots will remain as insurgents (and the elderly who either can't or won't leave - often not thinking that the ethnic cleansing strategies employed by Rosgvardia and the army will continue if they are winning).

The US is checkmated by agents of influence/useful idiots and cannot even declare war or authorise any increase in direct kinetic activity in support if Ukraine even if it wanted to (unless in self defense which Putin is smart enough to avoid).

That said, if the northern block (Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia) supported directly by France (the UK can do little conventionally they are as gutted as Canada is) and possibly Holland, Denmark and Norway decide to honor their various bilateral/trilateral security agreements with Ukraine (and ignore NATO/the US as irrelevant within Europe currently) Muscovy will lose and relatively quickly. Finland and Poland alone in a pincer attack on Moscow would radically change the dynamic in Ukraine.

I suppose it is still possible that various NATO countries could release enough of their military to join a Ukrainian Legion as formed and equipped units that the tide could be turned but I see that as even less likely than actual intervention.

I hope to be quickly, dramatically and thoroughly proven wrong. But without US arms even funds from other countries or wealthy supporters/crowdsourcing is too little too late.

Ashamed to be a member of a NATO country.
Click to expand...

We should have some kind of decision on an aid package, from the US at any rate, by next week. My guess is it will be a positive result for the good guys:



Fresh US aid for Ukraine will be put to a vote separately to the question of new military assistance for Israel, House Speaker Mike Johnson says.

Mr Johnson has stalled a House vote on a $96bn package aimed at helping both US allies, while he faces pressure from fellow members of his Republican Party.

But he said an Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend had increased the urgency to sign off new foreign aid.

Mr Johnson said the separate aid bills could be put to a vote this week.

Ukraine has grown impatient as its ammunition supplies dwindle, with Russia making steady territorial gains after its full-scale invasion entered a third year.

www.bbc.com

House could vote on Ukraine aid this week, Speaker says

Kyiv has grown frustrated with hold-ups to new US support, as Russia makes steady gains in its invasion.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
daftandbarmy said:
We should have some kind of decision on an aid package, from the US at any rate, by next week. My guess is it will be a positive result for the good guys:



Fresh US aid for Ukraine will be put to a vote separately to the question of new military assistance for Israel, House Speaker Mike Johnson says.

Mr Johnson has stalled a House vote on a $96bn package aimed at helping both US allies, while he faces pressure from fellow members of his Republican Party.

But he said an Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend had increased the urgency to sign off new foreign aid.

Mr Johnson said the separate aid bills could be put to a vote this week.

Ukraine has grown impatient as its ammunition supplies dwindle, with Russia making steady territorial gains after its full-scale invasion entered a third year.

www.bbc.com

House could vote on Ukraine aid this week, Speaker says

Kyiv has grown frustrated with hold-ups to new US support, as Russia makes steady gains in its invasion.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
Click to expand...
I am willing to make a bet with you that while the Israel bill passes the Ukraine bill will have an amendment made and be sent back to congress for reapproval. Couple that with frequent "vacations" Moscow Mike keeps calling for, the delay will continue.
 
Skysix said:
I am willing to make a bet with you that while the Israel bill passes the Ukraine bill will have an amendment made and be sent back to congress for reapproval. Couple that with frequent "vacations" Moscow Mike keeps calling for, the delay will continue.
Click to expand...
I don’t think so, there are enough Republicans for Ukraine as well as Democrats to force the issue.
 
KevinB said:
I don’t think so, there are enough Republicans for Ukraine as well as Democrats to force the issue.
Click to expand...
All it takes is enough to propose an amendment and pass it. Granted, if they are really willing to push it through without any amendments it could pass. However even if all the MAGA crowd can do is filibuster it could delay passage until the next then the following 2 week vacation.
 
W. T. Actual F!

Forcing Ukraine to play by its "degrade Russia but not win thanks for the blood" rules was bad enough but to STILL be actively funding Putin's war machine is just obscene.

Essentially DOD is paying to have Muscovy kill Ukrainian civilians!

www.airandspaceforces.com

DOD Still Has No Plan To Stop Using Russian Gas in Europe

A year after Congress' deadline, the Pentagon has not submitted a plan for weaning U.S. military bases in Europe off of Russian energy.
www.airandspaceforces.com www.airandspaceforces.com
 
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