CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia

[KevinB]

The podcast is a good snapshot of what the Canadian Army is focusing on for Latvia. Overall I think it’s an okay plan, not great but maybe the best we can do given current constraints.

I am uneasy though because overall I think the Canadian Army is going to become or continue to be very myopic out to the mid 2300's. I think we will see three largely separate armies emerge similar to the Afghanistan era. We will have a fairly well equipped and modern army in Latvia, a second force in the Canadian based regular army with the largely documented deficiencies in equipment and finally our current reserve army with minimal to no additional changes to equipment or structures.

It will work for the single mission in the immediate term but it won’t fix any of our actual systemic underlying weaknesses.

FIFY...

 

[Kirkhill]

Ca November 3 2020

555 LAV 6s, exclusive of the LAV 6 LRSS

58% Serviceable

322 LAVs roadworthy.

Major Rock describes an army that was having trouble meeting training requirements with that fleet and was asking that the war stocks be released to the units to permit effective training.

How much would the situation be impacted by removing another 60 or 70 roadworthy units and sending them to a warehouse in Latvia?
Assuming that those vehicles were used for training in the same manner as the existing fleet and absorbed wear and tear at the same rate (42% VOR) would that mean that we would actually have to send 100 LAVs over?










PS - Unit cost of LAV 6 about 2-4 MCAD
Unit cost of a MRZR about 20-40 KCAD
About a 100:1 exchange rate.

 

[suffolkowner]

Minister Blair announces measures to strengthen Canada’s military presence in Latvia - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, accompanied by General Wayne Eyre, Chief of the Defence Staff, are visiting Latvia – home to Canada’s largest foreign military deployment

www.canada.ca

• Canada has finalized the procurement of Portable Anti-Armour Missile Systems for our forces in Latvia, including missiles, simulators, and associated supports. These modern anti-tank weapons will better equip our soldiers to confront threats from our adversaries’ main battle tanks, thus strengthening NATO’s deterrence posture. These weapons are being procured on an urgent basis after having been designated an Urgent Operational Requirement. Canada has awarded the Portable Anti "X" Missile (PAXM) on behalf of the Department of National Defence to Rafael Advanced Defense Systems for $32.2M USD. The first of these systems is expected to arrive by mid-2024.

 

[KevinB]

Poor choice of missile - but when you wait for a shooting war, what do you expect.

 

[WestIsle]

Poor choice of missile - but when you wait for a shooting war, what do you expect.

It is on the cheaper side

 

[OldSolduer]

Poor choice of missile - but when you wait for a shooting war, what do you expect.

LIKE CANADA ALWAYS HAS!

 

[ueo]

The Canadian light battalion will be a surge (flyover), providing another battalion to the soon to be established MN eFP Brigade. The Bde HQ will be Canadian-led but not exclusively Canadian. The surged MN Bde will have the eFP BG, the (surge) light battalion and the Danish battalion.

The existing eFP BG is adding a Canadian tank squadron. That eFP BG (which is mech) has a Canadian BG HQ, a Canadian LAV Coy, a Canadian Admin (CSS) Coy and a composite/multinational Combat Support Coy in addition to all the sub-units provided by other troop contributing nations. Then there is all the other Canadian CS and CSS going into the Bde-level units.

So there are LAVs and TAPVs everywhere - not sure what your question was?

Not really sure the bods for ba surge uniy really exist.

 

[MilEME09]

Poor choice of missile - but when you wait for a shooting war, what do you expect.

in what way is it a poor choice? the Spike LR2 has more range compared to the Javalin, the CLU is 2kg lighter, 30% greater penetration vs previous models. Whats not to like?

 

[dapaterson]

in what way is it a poor choice? the Spike LR2 has more range compared to the Javalin, the CLU is 2kg lighter, 30% greater penetration vs previous models. Whats not to like?

I have not seen technical data on trials, but I generally take manufacturer's specifications with a grain or two of salt. For example, greater accuracy, greater resistance to spoofing and decoys... does Spike prevail in those ways - ways which, arguably, are more important than range or lab penetration distances.

 

[KevinB]

in what way is it a poor choice? the Spike LR2 has more range compared to the Javalin, the CLU is 2kg lighter, 30% greater penetration vs previous models. Whats not to like?

The fact that Javelin has a 950% Pkill over Spike could be an issue...
But I mean only if you actually want to hit and kill enemy tanks

 

[MilEME09]

The fact that Javelin has a 950% Pkill over Spike could be an issue...
But I mean only if you actually want to hit and kill enemy tanks

So your gripe is its not as combat proven as Javelin? Most of NATO has adopted the Spike, so kinda seems like a no brainer

 

[Fabius]

Somewhat semantic but we are procuring Spike from Rafael not Eurospike. There are some differences mostly on the manufacturing component side I believe. All the European NATO countries are using Eurospike.

I’m just surprised it didn’t get awarded to the Army’s preferred option of the Akeron.

Ironically I think the delivery timeline on Javalin was close although a bit longer by months if we had just signed an FMS sole source deal as soon as this UOR became a thing.

 

[markppcli]

Somewhat semantic but we are procuring Spike from Rafael not Eurospike. There are some differences mostly on the manufacturing component side I believe. All the European NATO countries are using Eurospike.

I’m just surprised it didn’t get awarded to the Army’s preferred option of the Akeron.

Ironically I think the delivery timeline on Javalin was close although a bit longer by months if we had just signed an FMS sole source deal as soon as this UOR became a thing.

Was the MMP preferred ? We weren’t a bit shy about buying a French missile again?

I like Spike myself, the fact that it can target after launch, almost in a loitering capacity, is very cool. What we need next is vehicle mounts and, frankly, the PYs in units to man them.

 

[Fabius]

From what I saw in some of the documents I think I would say personnel within the Army preferred the French system. I say that based on some of the items stated that while factual true were disingenuous. Items such as Javelin being experimental ( technically true since they wanted the seeker head under development) or Spike not being used by any NATO partner ( technically true since we have to procure the Rafael Spike not the EuroSpike Spike).

 

[markppcli]

From what I saw in some of the documents I think I would say personnel within the Army preferred the French system. I say that based on some of the items stated that while factual true were disingenuous. Items such as Javelin being experimental ( technically true since they wanted the seeker head under development) or Spike not being used by any NATO partner ( technically true since we have to procure the Rafael Spike not the EuroSpike Spike).

Interesting, I imagine that it came down to what production line we could get on.

 

[Furniture]

Was the MMP preferred ? We weren’t a bit shy about buying a French missile again?

I like Spike myself, the fact that it can target after launch, almost in a loitering capacity, is very cool. What we need next is vehicle mounts and, frankly, the PYs in units to man them.

I'm not an expert by any means, but if it's available and cheap enough for us to buy enough systems, I'd take it over the nothing we currently have.

 

[markppcli]

I'm not an expert by any means, but if it's available and cheap enough for us to buy enough systems, I'd take it over the nothing we currently have.

I completely agree. Perfect is the enemy of good enough and all that.

 

[KevinB]

So your gripe is it’s not as combat proven as Javelin? Most of NATO has adopted the Spike, so kinda seems like a no brainer

I’ll be blunt and flat out say Spike sucks. It’s hit ratios are abysmal compared to a lot of other systems.


A lot of what is advertised as being a capability isn’t really feasible, and the probability of kill is significantly lower (by orders of magnitude than Javelin).

Most of NATO can’t fight its way out of a wet paper bag, and has some seriously flawed combat development.

 

[Rifleman62]

.......the PYs in units to man them.

Only enough PY's for the units in Latvia.

Canada has finalized the procurement of Portable Anti-Armour Missile Systems for our forces in Latvia, including missiles, simulators, and associated supports.

Minister Blair announces measures to strengthen Canada’s military presence in Latvia - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, accompanied by General Wayne Eyre, Chief of the Defence Staff, are visiting Latvia – home to Canada’s largest foreign military deployment

www.canada.ca

Canada will deploy four Griffon helicopters to the eFP Battle Group and periodically deploy Chinooks as well, starting fall 2025. This is the first time that Canada has persistently deployed tactical aviation capabilities to Europe since operations in Bosnia and Kosovo in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Griffon is tactical aviation or Liaison aviation?

 

[YZT580]

Only enough PY's for the units in Latvia.

Minister Blair announces measures to strengthen Canada’s military presence in Latvia - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, accompanied by General Wayne Eyre, Chief of the Defence Staff, are visiting Latvia – home to Canada’s largest foreign military deployment

www.canada.ca

Griffon is tactical aviation or Liaison aviation?

If I recall they were sent to Mali as escorts for the CH47's so that would make them tactical I guess.