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2009 "CF to MB Flooding" Watch

daftandbarmy said:
I hope that they treat OCdts better now than when I was in training. If so, they will give you sandbags to stop leaks, and not plug you into the gaps head first  ;D

Nah..... head first works best, sandbags are the backup

;D
 
We'll, you're the engineer, you should know best. I must say I am pretty proud of my dike building skills though. I managed to follow the directions on the Handout I was given by some emergency measures guy on how to build one.
 
If the reserves get involved, be a great test of the call out system along with supporting emergency response within the domestic need for the dnd.

Engineers could provide alot of support, although logistically a nightmare!
 
A bit more of the latest, from CBC.ca...
Premier Gary Doer is confident the critical flood situation in Fargo, N.D., won't be repeated in Manitoba when the crest of the Red River crosses the international border.

The real issue isn't managing the water, but managing the ice floes that are preventing the opening of the Winnipeg floodway gates, said Doer, who spoke with the media near the banks of the floodway on Friday, joined by Treasury Board President Vic Toews, Manitoba's senior cabinet minister in Ottawa.

"Bottom line is, we can handle the water in most cases. It's the issue of what does the ice do to the water," he said. "That's our challenge and keeps us on our toes." ....

....and the Canadian Press
Officials say record-high flood waters from the swollen Red River in North Dakota don't mean Manitobans downstream need to panic or expect the same.

Emergency workers in Fargo, N.D., evacuated neighbourhoods and fought to keep dikes from buckling as flood waters rose past a 112-year record Friday. That water is headed toward the border and is expected to reach Manitoba in the next few weeks.

But the province's senior flood forecaster, Alf Warkentin, said the crest will get smaller as it heads north toward Lake Winnipeg. The chances of a flood like the one in 1997 that swamped large swaths of southern Manitoba have diminished to "well below" 10 per cent, he said.

"They can have a big flood in Fargo but that doesn't necessarily mean that we have a big flood here," he said. "We will have a pretty big flood here but we're not talking about record levels like they are in Fargo."....
 
This, from the Winnipeg Free Press via Canada.com
As flood-threatened communities north of Winnipeg face an "almost unprecedented" series of critical flood risks — ice jams, snowfalls, and a huge volume of water heading toward them from the U.S. — the Canadian military is prepared to act.

The defence department has put the military "on standby, ready to provide resources, if need be," Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan told journalists Thursday.

"At this point, obviously, the problems have not become so severe that it requires a major operation, but we're watching it very closely," Van Loan said.


But people bracing for the floodwaters were accusing the federal government Thursday of sitting on its hands while an emergency looms.

More "proactive" flood prevention is needed, said Mayor Steve Strang of St. Clements, 45 kilometres northeast of St. Andrews, where at least 10 homes have been flooded and another 40 are at risk....
 
Flood protection for Winnipeg:

Assiniboine watershed;
-All tributaries flowing north from the US side to the Assiniboine river are expected to have major flooding. The Souris and Pembina rivers being the 2 major ones. Fortunately there are few towns in the bottom of those valleys and most homes and farms are expected to be OK.
-the Shellmouth dam created Lake of the prairies on the MB SK border acts as a reservoir to contain/control flood waters from the Assiniboine basin in SK. It was drawn down in February in anticipation of this springs floods.
-the Portage diversion dam holds back flood water and diverts it north into Lake Manitoba (any of you who've been to Southport likely are familiar with it)
-Due to the Shellmouth dam and the Portage diversion flooding on the Assiniboine east of Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg is virtually non-existant.

Red River watershed;
-Most of the flood water comes from the south, N & S Dakota and Minnesota. The Red River valley is much narrower in the U.S. and concentrates the water within that valley.
-Once it crosses the Canadian Border the Valley spreads out to over a hundred miles wide with a large flat plain as the valley floor. All the flood water can spread out. Once it reaches Manitoba it takes lots of water to raise the levels. Imagine how much water is needed to raise the level by a foot over 20 miles as opposed to the 5 miles in the US (just an example, the distances will vary).
-Instead of building levees and trying to contain the river within its banks Manitoba builds ring dikes around towns and property and lets the river run over the flood plain.
-the floodway operates by raising submerged gates across the Red river in St Norbert and diverting the water into a large channel around Winnipeg.
-North of Selkirk to the mouth of lake Winnipeg the Red experiences ice jams on a fairly regular basis but this year the jam occurred at Lockport about 6 to 7 miles south of Selkirk. The Red is still ice covered from the North end of Winnipeg all the way south to the border. So there's lots of potential there for more ice jams!

This year the weather has been wacky to say the least with a thaw and rain storm a few weeks ago, which prompted the early thaw and flood in the US, and then a cold snap and 3 days of snow last week. The big question now is what will happen if the flood crest arrives north of the border and we experience a big thaw at the same time.
As a side note the gates on the diversion structure can't be raised while there's still ice flowing as the floodway and the bridges crossing it are not built to deal with large ice flows and would likely jam the channel. Now that would be the definition of F$*(^!!
 
EMO announced today that they are not expecting Manitoba to hit 1997 levels after all.....don't know what that is based on, but them and Environment Canada are supposed to be the experts....
 
Well, I don't know - I looked up some info on the 1997 flood, and this is really early for break-up, and we did have that big storm the other day. They've already had flooding between Winnipeg and Selkirk, and they're still sandbagging up there. There are houses built on the flood plain in spots, and some are filled with water already.

The ice jam hasn't happened at Selkirk, yet, and that was the worst in 1997. Hopefully the experts are right, and the dams are high enough. I lived in Selkirk in 1997 and it was awful! Several friends were evacuated, and the 2 seniors condo's had water right up to the top of their underground parking. Its a case of hope for the best and prepare for the worst, I guess.
 
Information was distributed to members of our unit last night. We've been following the same sort of "stand-by" knowledge while LFCA determines how many people from the region are able to help should we need it.  Class B's are up first, followed by any Class A's who are not sole supporters.

Has anyone else been contacted about this possibility yet?
 
The military is engaging in contingency planning, identifying what resources it has available if called.  That does not mean anything is imminenet; it means that the military is taking prudent precautions to be ready if something is needed.
 
... Until the province picks up the proverbial phone and asks for support from the military, nothing will happen.

The minute the phone call is made, expenses incurred by the military in support of the province will be on the Province's nickle.
 
From CanWest/Canada.com:  "Flood fears forced another Manitoba community to declare a state of emergency Tuesday, as the provincial government confirmed Canada's military is already is on the ground, eyeballing the flood situation in the unlikely event they're called in to help .... Don Brennan, acting executive director of Manitoba's Emergency Measures Organization, said liaison officers with the military are being appraised of the flood situation, in case soldiers are ordered deployed to help with building dikes and emergency transportation.  "They're just being proactive," Brennan said...."
 
the provincial government confirmed Canada's military is already is on the ground, eyeballing the flood situation in the unlikely event they're called in to help .... Don Brennan, acting executive director of Manitoba's Emergency Measures Organization, said liaison officers with the military are being appraised of the flood situation, in case soldiers are ordered deployed to help with building dikes and emergency transportation.  "They're just being proactive," Brennan said...."

The J9 cell at work. 
The provincial government has NOT asked for help.
The military is looking, it is planning, it is sending out liaison officers.
To date, no military personnel will be seen working on the dikes & levies
 
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