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2023 UCP Alberta election

At an appropriate transfer level, and properly assuming responsibility for all obligations and liabilities associated with employment income from Alberta since 1965, there will be some impact to Canadians of all political affiliations, but not enough to make it a major electoral issue. Lets say 12% of the population gets 18% of the money. That still leaves 82% of the money for 88% of the population. 6 spread across 12 is a lot. 6 spread across 82 is not near as much. That's before accounting for a certain amount of the 18 being owed to some of the 82.

If Smith convinces Albertan's that they're entitled to 54% of the money, and they go for it- it won't be the LPC and it's supporters "circling the wagons" - it will be working Canadians of all political affiliations across the country telling them to go piss up a rope.

We have already gone from a 0-54% negotiation to a 18 to 54% negotiation.

The saw-off has moved from 27% to 36%. ;)
 
On the other hand, we have a pony.

Except it's not a cute little Shetland that goes round and about at a children's birthday party; it's a pit pony. And the more it's whipped,, the sooner it dies.

All federal governments are crap-shows in some respects with money, especially when the money is essentially at government's discretion to manage. But CPP and QPP are OK. So to the extent experience is a guide, an APP is more likely to be OK than not.

While all governments are "crap-shows" in respect of managing money, most of the time it is simply managing current money - the in and out of day to day collection and payment. They don't often (or try not to make a show of) stick their finger in the "investment" pie, those sums set aside for the future, simply because, with the exception of Alberta (I'm not aware of any other province doing similar) none of the other jurisdictions set aside a portion of their revenue for the benefit of future generations. Or at least makes a show of claiming to set aside for the future. Nor does any other province have its own "bank" the ATB, which was instituted to make credit available to the little guy - another changing feature of government investment involvement. The history of both government financial entities have numerous examples of being used as an easily broken piggy bank or political prop.

I won't dispute that politicians at all levels and from all parties, too often involve themselves in the operational decisions of the financial arms of government, usually for political motives. But Alberta culture is different (okay, at least in my opinion). Some of that is history, "social credit" and a single party (or variations of that theme) governing the province during (with the exception of one brief period) most of its history. Much like the LPC, being the "natural governing party" does inculcate a level of arrogance and a tendency to narrow focus. So, my experience of watching Alberta politics (and I've spent over half my life out here - both in and out of the service) does form an opinion that I wouldn't put it past the current government (and particularly the current premier) of trying to use the funds in an APP to promote their political agenda.
 
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We have already gone from a 0-54% negotiation to a 18 to 54% negotiation.

The saw-off has moved from 27% to 36%. ;)
Actually we moved from a 20-25% Trevor Tombe reasonable offer rangeto a 16-18% based on recent years % of national annual contribution reasonable offer, with that 16-18% expected to cover the applicable benefits non-residents of Alberta who have made contributions through Albertan employment.
 
And for info sake.


When I came across this site (while confirming some facts for my previous post), I initially thought that it was a political party or interest group that was promoting the UCP APP proposal. That is until I saw the small logo at the bottom of the page (always read the fine print) and realized it's an Alberta Government site. So, they have started trying to sell it to the public, using the figures in the report as the main selling points. I won't get in detailed argument about those numbers (I haven't done an "analysis" of the report yet, just a quick skim), other that to consider them ridiculous.

I did look at some of the features of the site, particularly noting the details of public "engagement" and the "independent" panel and made an attempt to "Have [my] say" (green tab, upper right of page). They lost any possibility of gaining any trust on my part right from the start. I'm not naive, and know that polls are usually worded to steer the respondent to the benefit of the poll originator. However, taking my time and wanting to see what the future questions would be, I skipped answering a question on one of the pages and when I went to the next section the questions seemed to be already assuming (based my previous response - which I hadn't done) that I was in favour of an APP and was now only seeking details of how it would work to my benefit.

I stopped right there as I didn't want to submit a response that didn't accurately record my opinion.
 
Because the "Communications Director" of the entity that would take the hit is not going to communicate anything but statements meant to defeat the initiative and preserve that entity. A biased source making biased observations = dismissed.

Besides, "saying it would not be disputed, isn’t complex and does not entail risk" could describe your next motorcycle purchase too.
It’s the entity that is or will be a major stakeholder in any decision that Alberta will take. Again, what was biased about the observations? Are they wrong? If no then they should not be easily dismissed. Is the source biased? Possibly and probably but it’s their actual job to safeguard and make sure the CPP stays as strong as it can be. But nothing they said was wrong.

You specifically quoted the actual part that is actually correct lol and choose to dismiss it.
 
We have already gone from a 0-54% negotiation to a 18 to 54% negotiation.

The saw-off has moved from 27% to 36%. ;)
Don’t think it was ever a 0-54% negotiation.

In fact, it’s not a negotiation yet, but it is a recce salvo by AB. AB dropped the anchor. CA/CPP hasn’t countered the anchor, nor has it outright dismissed it. Some observers have dropped a potential counter to the anchor, perhaps to suggest a ZOPA on the issue here (zone of possible agreement)…not seeing anything at the moment to suggest what the ZOPA is/would be. 27-36% is probably higher than likely, I think it might be a tighter zone in the lower-to-mid 20s%.
 
Don’t think it was ever a 0-54% negotiation.

In fact, it’s not a negotiation yet, but it is a recce salvo by AB. AB dropped the anchor. CA/CPP hasn’t countered the anchor, nor has it outright dismissed it. Some observers have dropped a potential counter to the anchor, perhaps to suggest a ZOPA on the issue here (zone of possible agreement)…not seeing anything at the moment to suggest what the ZOPA is/would be. 27-36% is probably higher than likely, I think it might be a tighter zone in the lower-to-mid 20s%.
I doubt any counter will be made officially until the process to create an APP officially starts. It will definitely be precedent setting.
 
Past experience with Alberta governments in managing investment funds.

Yes, the Alberta economy is healthy, but we are essentially a one trick pony. Government budgeting since oil (with rare, rare exceptions) has always been at the whim of world wide oil prices (and our crude isn't cheap). When times are good, they are "very" good out here. When the price is low, the government blames everybody but themselves for not saving when we had the opportunity. And on those rare occasions when they did put away a few shekels, the first instinct is to invest it in marginal "resource" (read oil and gas) plays.
The above is too true

I remember when Klein was Premier (I think he was still Premier anyway, I'm going a while back on this...) and we had such a huge surplus, the provincial government gave every single Albertan a cheque for a $200 rebate

My sister even got a cheque, and I think she was like...maybe 12yo? I even had a few friends get that $200 rebate twice


(This wasn't something anybody had to apply for. They just came in the mail.)

Fast forward a few years when the price of oil had gone down for a bit, and demand was low for some reason...

And ho-ly hell...I'd just assumed the government had set itself up a little rainy day fund before it sent us those $200 rebates! I was wrong!


____________________


I know this isn't the right thread for this discussion (or maybe it is?) but Canada has a lot of natural resources...

Other provinces could also maybe look at developing some oil & gas industry in their northern areas, and supplement their finances with the money that could generate?

(I'm not suggesting they focus on building up a large oil & gas industry, but I'm also pretty sure dinosaurs didn't just die here in Alberta...,)
 
Bruh...that picture is literally in black & white...
just how long ago was it, that this happened? 😉

Well, Kirk and McCoy had finished nodding at each other about 10 years previous - you might be able to find info about it in things called books. They didn't have have electrons and buttons and such. :D
 
Don’t think it was ever a 0-54% negotiation.

In fact, it’s not a negotiation yet, but it is a recce salvo by AB. AB dropped the anchor. CA/CPP hasn’t countered the anchor, nor has it outright dismissed it. Some observers have dropped a potential counter to the anchor, perhaps to suggest a ZOPA on the issue here (zone of possible agreement)…not seeing anything at the moment to suggest what the ZOPA is/would be. 27-36% is probably higher than likely, I think it might be a tighter zone in the lower-to-mid 20s%.

 
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The above is too true

I remember when Klein was Premier (I think he was still Premier anyway, I'm going a while back on this...) and we had such a huge surplus, the provincial government gave every single Albertan a cheque for a $200 rebate

My sister even got a cheque, and I think she was like...maybe 12yo? I even had a few friends get that $200 rebate twice


(This wasn't something anybody had to apply for. They just came in the mail.)

Fast forward a few years when the price of oil had gone down for a bit, and demand was low for some reason...

And ho-ly hell...I'd just assumed the government had set itself up a little rainy day fund before it sent us those $200 rebates! I was wrong!


____________________


I know this isn't the right thread for this discussion (or maybe it is?) but Canada has a lot of natural resources...

Other provinces could also maybe look at developing some oil & gas industry in their northern areas, and supplement their finances with the money that could generate?

(I'm not suggesting they focus on building up a large oil & gas industry, but I'm also pretty sure dinosaurs didn't just die here in Alberta...,)


For reference - Here be dead dinosaurs (The Western Sedimentary Basin)

1695679132661.png1695679148006.png
 

Danielle Smith’s plan to withdraw from CPP would leave all Canadians – including Albertans – poorer​

Andrew Willis
ANDREW WILLIS
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY

Alberta’s pension plan idea is full of holes​

TREVOR TOMBE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED 9 HOURS AGO

Alberta’s pension proposal is a Brexit-like disaster in the making​

Gary Mason
GARY MASONNATIONAL AFFAIRS COLUMNIST
PUBLISHED 3 HOURS AGO

Cue Outrage.
Cue Scare-mongering.

It feels like the Brexit play book.

If Gary really believes this is a Brexit moment then he might want to take lessons from David Cameron's experience and make sure that Danielle gets a "good-enuff" offer she can sell to her voters.

The EU played hardball and lost.
 
True... but not that long ago we were also at "Smith hasn't been elected yet..."

Things are moving.
True but I suspect a LOT of levers would have to be flicked before we get even close to considering such a breakaway. I’d put my money on the probing recce theory for now.
 
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