A Deeply Fractured US

[Fishbone Jones]

His usual source of funds has other commitments right now.

And that would be what?

 

[Remius]

His worth is inclusive of all assets. He has property and investments. You just can't liquidate everything to satisfy a witch hunt by spiteful democrats.

If so, then why would he have declared he had 400million in cash at a deposition last year?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If so, then why would he have declared he had 400million in cash at a deposition last year?

There could be all kinds of reasons. That was then, this is now. Even at 400 mill, it's not enough to cover the ridiculous bond imposed by a mentally challenged bench.

 

[Navy_Pete]

There could be all kinds of reasons. That was then, this is now. Even at 400 mill, it's not enough to cover the ridiculous bond imposed by a mentally challenged bench.

All kinds of personal problems I guess.

Weirdly none of the underwriters would take a property stake against the bond from someone who was convicted in court of massively over inflating property values when it benefited him and want cash backing. Maybe he should have kept paying his lawyers so he wasn't stuck with the Lionel Hutz level practitioners.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

All kinds of personal problems I guess.

Weirdly none of the underwriters would take a property stake against the bond from someone who was convicted in court of massively over inflating property values when it benefited him and want cash backing. Maybe he should have kept paying his lawyers so he wasn't stuck with the Lionel Hutz level practitioners.

Underwriters don't take property as collateral, they only take cash or stocks and will only cover a 100 million bond.

Overinflating?

The driveway at Mar-a-Lago is with $18 million whereas the crank judge said the whole place was only worth that. He's a lousy judge and an even worse real estate appraiser. He was convicted of fraud. Even though nobody was damaged and everyone made money. Two things required for a proper conviction of fraud. Someone needs to be damaged and money or value taken from them. The real fraud here is perpetrated by the New York Justice system.

 

[Remius]

There could be all kinds of reasons. That was then, this is now. Even at 400 mill, it's not enough to cover the ridiculous bond imposed by a mentally challenged bench.

What about a few weeks ago when he said he wasn’t worried about the amount?

Seems like smoke and mirrors. I think he genuinely thought he would get through this with more delay tactics but it looks like he’s up a creek of excrement without a paddle.

The one positive for him is if the courts take his property then his supporters will support him even more.

 

[KevinB]

Underwriters don't take property as collateral, they only take cash or stocks and will only cover a 100 million bond.

Overinflating?

The driveway at Mar-a-Lago is with $18 million whereas the crank judge said the whole place was only worth that. He's a lousy judge and an even worse real estate appraiser. He was convicted of fraud. Even though nobody was damaged and everyone made money. Two things required for a proper conviction of fraud. Someone needs to be damaged and money or value taken from them. The real fraud here is perpetrated by the New York Justice system.

You get the Judge wasn’t the one doing the valuations right?

He got caught - period.

It would be the same thing if anyone kept under reporting your income or properties to the government for years.

Death and Taxes…

 

[QV]

All kinds of personal problems I guess.

Weirdly none of the underwriters would take a property stake against the bond from someone who was convicted in court of massively over inflating property values when it benefited him and want cash backing. Maybe he should have kept paying his lawyers so he wasn't stuck with the Lionel Hutz level practitioners.

This post demonstrates the author and likely the lay person knows very little about real estate and developer investment.

Enough property and investment experts have already chimed in on Trumps side on this. Even banks testified in his favour.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

What about a few weeks ago when he said he wasn’t worried about the amount?

Seems like smoke and mirrors. I think he genuinely thought he would get through this with more delay tactics but it looks like he’s up a creek of excrement without a paddle.

The one positive for him is if the courts take his property then his supporters will support him even more.

He still has til the 31st.

 

[KevinB]

This post demonstrates the author and likely the lay person knows very little about real estate and developer investment.

Enough property and investment experts have already chimed in on Trumps side on this. Even banks testified in his favour.

There were a lot of different opinions in that. Trump had experts and the Government had experts.
Somewhere in the middle of all of this the truth lies.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Underwriters don't take property as collateral, they only take cash or stocks and will only cover a 100 million bond.

Overinflating?

The driveway at Mar-a-Lago is with $18 million whereas the crank judge said the whole place was only worth that. He's a lousy judge and an even worse real estate appraiser. He was convicted of fraud. Even though nobody was damaged and everyone made money. Two things required for a proper conviction of fraud. Someone needs to be damaged and money or value taken from them. The real fraud here is perpetrated by the New York Justice system.

New York law basically allows them (the courts) to do what was done. What Trump was penalized for is common practice, if people in the business aren't spinning tales. Whether the signal it sends was wise is the political and economic side of the question - all that businesses have is the reassurance of the governor that some intangible amount of being a bad person, measured by people in politics, decides which way the scale might tip. (Less charitably, it can be interpreted as a suggestion that the laws were deployed this way with only one target in mind.) New York is like most major cities facing a slump in commercial real estate values. This will tip things a little more negative.

 

[Brad Sallows]

You get the Judge wasn’t the one doing the valuations right?

He got caught - period.

It would be the same thing if anyone kept under reporting your income or properties to the government for years.

Death and Taxes…

Nothing really to do with under-reporting to government. All about over-reporting valuations to financers.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Nothing really to do with under-reporting to government. All about over-reporting valuations to financers.

If you or I did that when going for a bank loan, they would pass it on to the police to prosecute you for fraud. If you under reported the value of your assets to the CRA, they would eat your soul and leave you broken.

A bunch of experts testified to both sides about whether or not it's common practice or fraud, so expect it's probably somewhere in the middle, but his behaviour and general disrespect of the court throughout didn't really help. If you get sent to the principle's office and continue to act like a complete arse, you should expect to be in the FAFO realm.

I think a lot of the Mar-a-lago valuations can be lower because he never actually paid the small contractors for the work and sued them instead like a rich bully. He owed something like $70M to 250ish contractors for the Taj Mahal which ruined a lot of them. He routinely gets sued for non-payment of contracting work by small firms, things like overtime for employees with thousands of small claims that he beats into submission with lawyers or just ignores until they go bankrupt.

How this guy framed himself as a man of the people I will never know; he is only a billionaire because he inherited it all, failed spectacularly at things he tried to do for himself, and regularly stiffs blue collar workers (while probably spending more on lawyers not to pay them, until he doesn't pay his lawyers as well).

This is all well documented public record stuff that goes back to the 80s, so this guy has been a snake oil sales man since I was a toddler. This case is really just him getting caught for the lies he routinely peddles.

 

[kkwd]

Trump has not been convicted of a single thing. Yes, he has civil judgements against him. I wonder why he wasn't criminally charged if his conduct was so egregious and was such an affront to good order.

AG James had remarks after the judgement and said of Trump:

“Claiming you have money that you do not have does not amount to the art of the deal. It’s the art of the steal,”

What did Trump steal? Nobody has claimed any losses, not even the government.
AP Article Link

 

[kkwd]

Here is a comprehensive list of law suits Trump has been involved in over the past 30 years, a count of some 4095. They include him as plaintiff and some as defendant. Many of the suits are over casinos, the vast majority suing gamblers not paying debts. There were 208 contract dispute suits where I suppose he "stiffed" contractors. Seems it was 146 to 62 in favour of the defendant.
Law Suit Link

 

[Brad Sallows]

If you or I did that when going for a bank loan, they would pass it on to the police to prosecute you for fraud. If you under reported the value of your assets to the CRA, they would eat your soul and leave you broken.

"Going for a bank loan" is the context. And - again - people in the business claim it's common, in that jurisdiction. Conceptually, it's like the work estimates game where the lower level pads its estimate by 20% and the upper level, knowing this, truncates by 20%. All sorts of observers have commented that in the US - which is, reminder, where this happened - it's highly unusual to have a law under which fraud can be tried without a victim.

A bunch of experts testified to both sides about whether or not it's common practice or fraud, so expect it's probably somewhere in the middle, but his behaviour and general disrespect of the court throughout didn't really help. If you get sent to the principle's office and continue to act like a complete arse, you should expect to be in the FAFO realm.

Whatever the "bunch of experts" on the "other side" testified to, the actual financial institutions involved didn't complain about the practice.

This is all well documented public record stuff that goes back to the 80s, so this guy has been a snake oil sales man since I was a toddler. This case is really just him getting caught for the lies he routinely peddles.

All true. Also true that it's (another) case in which he is being pursued for something that authorities have not really pursued anyone for before, and probably won't again. They can do this once, to Trump, and people might believe no-one else is going to have to worry. They do it again, and all doubt is removed and they've cooked themselves.

 

[mariomike]

In today's news,

CBS

Comments on Jewish Democratic voters.

Trump's comments on Jews who vote for Democrats draw outrage

Donald Trump said Jews who vote for Democrats "hate Israel" and "their religion," igniting a firestorm of criticism from the White House and Jewish leaders.

www.cbsnews.com

The vast majority of Jewish Americans identify as Democrats, but Trump has often accused them of disloyalty, perpetuating what critics say is an antisemitic trope.

The Pew Research Center reported in 2021 that Jews are "among the most consistently liberal and Democratic groups in the U.S.," with 7 in 10 Jewish adults identifying with or leaning toward the Democratic Party. In 2020, it found that nearly three-quarters of American Jews disapproved of Trump's performance as president, with just 27% rating him positively.​

​

U.S. Presidential Elections: Jewish Voting Record​

% of Jewish vote:

2016

Trump 24%

Clinton 71%

2020

Trump 30%

Biden 68%

American Jews tend to favor Democratic candidates, with 71% of Jewish voters choosing Democratic candidates on average and 26% choosing Republicans since 1968.

Jewish Voting Record in U.S. Presidential Elections

Encyclopedia of Jewish and Israeli history, politics and culture, with biographies, statistics, articles and documents on topics from anti-Semitism to Zionism.

www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org

 

[Brad Sallows]

In today's news,

CBS

Comments on Jewish Democratic voters.

He's unlikely to infuriate very many who were never going to vote for him in the first place. The rest are going to remember that he's the president who actually relocated the US embassy, unlike his predecessors who promised to do so, and never did.

Reports like this may be soothing balm to Democrats and other supporters, but they'd be smarter to focus on the part of the US political realignment which is the voters moving away from them.

 

[mariomike]

The rest are going to remember that he's the president who actually relocated the US embassy, unlike his predecessors who promised to do so, and never did.

Right.

American Jewish Congress Survey of American Jewish Opinion 2017​

​

Regarding a possible move of the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which of the following courses of action do you most support?​

Move the Embassy to Jerusalem immediately 16% Move the Embassy to Jerusalem at a later date in conjunction with progress in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks 36% Not move the embassy 44% Not sure 4%

AJC Survey of American Jewish Opinion 2017

AJC’s 2017 Survey of American Jewish Opinion, conducted by the research company SSRS, is based on telephone interviews carried out August 10-28 with a national sample of 1,000 Jews over age 18. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.71%.

www.ajc.org

 

[Brad Sallows]

Right.

You do understand that "the rest" is the minority who aren't well over to the political left in America?

Trump also only appeals to a minority of blacks, but what's important is that the minority is larger than it used to be and that blacks are a large enough share of the US population to really matter. Arithmetically, the shift is enough to deliver an election. (There are other population shifts going on, too, so one shift alone is not politically decisive.) Trophy-posting absolute polling snapshots doesn't reveal much.