Airforce Rundown

[Underway]

Reading an interesting article in skies magazine about the RCAF in the near future. In the last 18 or so months the Gov't has finalized deals for

1. Fighter jets, 88 F-35's replacing 89 CF-18's
2. Maritime patrol aircraft, (P-8's) 16 P-8's replacing 14 Aurora's (P-3's), creating a weapons roadmap for torpedeos and long range air to surface weapons (LRASM anyone???)
3. Strategic tanker aircraft (C330 Husky), 9 multi role tanker transports, one in white for VIP's replacing 5ish? not sure about Polaris and other numbers for these aircraft
4. uncrewed surviellence aircraft (CQ-9B Guardians), 11 aircraft, new capability, housed in Greenwood and Comox, which makes me think these are going to be more SeaGuardian style than SkyGuardian (the only difference I can find it what they are carrying for paylod
5. implemented cloud based AI C&C capabilities in North Bay and now introducing it out west, new capability to better integrate with NORAD
6. 3x Vigillance (King Air) aircraft for CANSOFCOM were introduced

Add to this some other programs:

1. C130J upgrades
2. AEW&C program which will probably get Wedgetails due to their ~86% comonality with the P-8's (though Bombardier actually has some decent options in this space as well).
3. The introduction of the Kingfisher SAR fixed wing (2025-26,), not something we are going to brag about from what I can tell
4. Comorant Mid Life Upgrade, which basically takes the 13 Commorants and makes them almost new (as well as adding 3 brand new ones)
5. Tactical avaiation program - working very closesly with US Army Future Vertical Lift and NATO's Next Generation Rotorcraft. Some thoughts of note are multiple platforms, mix of crewed and uncrewed systems, long ranges with Arctic in mind

Airforce of all the elements seem to know where they are headed and have a plan to get there that will be implemented in the short term, vs the Army having no idea what to do and the RCN having a decent plan but their timelines are 10-15 years away for most things.

 

[dimsum]

From what I understand, the “SeaGuardian / SkyGuardian” distinction is whether the aircraft is carrying the maritime radar pod, not the aircraft itself. So it’s more for marketing than anything else.

I’m also not as confident that we’ll get Wedgetails (as awesome as that would be) because Bombardier does have an actual performing aircraft in that space. I have no idea about the non-glossy-brochure specs on it and whether it meets our requirements, but it’s not like the CMMA project where I could have drawn a plane on a napkin and have a better submission than Bombardier at the time.

It also helps that for a few of those programs, NORAD being such a priority for both US and Canada helps stifle dissent.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Reading an interesting article in skies magazine about the RCAF in the near future. In the last 18 or so months the Gov't has finalized deals for

1. Fighter jets, 88 F-35's replacing 89 CF-18's
2. Maritime patrol aircraft, (P-8's) 16 P-8's replacing 14 Aurora's (P-3's), creating a weapons roadmap for torpedeos and long range air to surface weapons (LRASM anyone???)
3. Strategic tanker aircraft (C330 Husky), 9 multi role tanker transports, one in white for VIP's replacing 5ish? not sure about Polaris and other numbers for these aircraft
4. uncrewed surviellence aircraft (CQ-9B Guardians), 11 aircraft, new capability, housed in Greenwood and Comox, which makes me think these are going to be more SeaGuardian style than SkyGuardian (the only difference I can find it what they are carrying for paylod
5. implemented cloud based AI C&C capabilities in North Bay and now introducing it out west, new capability to better integrate with NORAD
6. 3x Vigillance (King Air) aircraft for CANSOFCOM were introduced

Add to this some other programs:

1. C130J upgrades
2. AEW&C program which will probably get Wedgetails due to their ~86% comonality with the P-8's (though Bombardier actually has some decent options in this space as well).
3. The introduction of the Kingfisher SAR fixed wing (2025-26,), not something we are going to brag about from what I can tell
4. Comorant Mid Life Upgrade, which basically takes the 13 Commorants and makes them almost new (as well as adding 3 brand new ones)
5. Tactical avaiation program - working very closesly with US Army Future Vertical Lift and NATO's Next Generation Rotorcraft. Some thoughts of note are multiple platforms, mix of crewed and uncrewed systems, long ranges with Arctic in mind

Airforce of all the elements seem to know where they are headed and have a plan to get there that will be implemented in the short term, vs the Army having no idea what to do and the RCN having a decent plan but their timelines are 10-15 years away for most things.

Now, now, now... the Army's criteria are very clear: Fight.... the bus driver's uniform era

 

[DBNSG]

Now, now, now... the Army's criteria are very clear: Fight.... the bus driver's uniform era

View attachment 89613

And just like that we are back to Uniforms and belts and buckles and all that glitters. Careers all round.

 

[FJAG]

Now, now, now... the Army's criteria are very clear: Fight.... the bus driver's uniform era

View attachment 89613

 

[PuckChaser]

Now, now, now... the Army's criteria are very clear: Fight.... the bus driver's uniform era

CA had the focus during Afghanistan, and the current government focus has been big dollar value items to show they care about the CAF. That means RCAF and RCN are getting the majority of the major cap project dollars to fix their rotting out fleets. 2% GDP means all elements need billions to fix the rot. Claiming CA is only focused on uniforms is a trash take suitable for salty corporal on Reddit. Uniforms are important in professions that need to wear them.

 

[Underway]

CA had the focus during Afghanistan, and the current government focus has been big dollar value items to show they care about the CAF. That means RCAF and RCN are getting the majority of the major cap project dollars to fix their rotting out fleets.

RCN and RCAF are getting the attention for two reasons. First South and North East Asia theatres are naval and air theatres. The Arctic threat is largely a naval and air threat (both NORAD or NORAD adjacent).

Also threats to Canada are going to float and fly. Defending Canada is the first mission of the CAF. The Army can't actually defend Canada from anyone (US included). So the focus rightly shifts there. Any land war the CAF is in is a likely a choice. An air or sea war however, that has a much higher chance to be involuntary.

 

[Underway]

From what I understand, the “SeaGuardian / SkyGuardian” distinction is whether the aircraft is carrying the maritime radar pod, not the aircraft itself. So it’s more for marketing than anything else.

I’m also not as confident that we’ll get Wedgetails (as awesome as that would be) because Bombardier does have an actual performing aircraft in that space. I have no idea about the non-glossy-brochure specs on it and whether it meets our requirements, but it’s not like the CMMA project where I could have drawn a plane on a napkin and have a better submission than Bombardier at the time.

It also helps that for a few of those programs, NORAD being such a priority for both US and Canada helps stifle dissent.

Bombardier has two options in that space IIRC.

Canadian Early Airborne Warning - Skies Mag

Skies Magazine to the rescue with a really good (from my plebian perspective) on how the competition may shape up. From where I sit I would prefer the Wedgetail because of the commonality with the P-8's but the Saab Globaleye and the L3 Harris option probably would work.

From what I understand is that the Canadian AEW&C's first job is to immediately to stand in for the eventual new 6 billion NORAD radars in the short term over the northern airspace. That means that numbers of aircraft, radar coverage of those individual aircraft and availability are going to be very important to have something in the air constantly covering as much as possible.

So the aircraft at the end of the day may not matter as much, but the sensor that it carries may matter a lot. And we know the Wedgetail covers a lot of airspace.

(of note this is a good plan, AEW&C does airsearch, Guardians do surface search, P8's do sub, surface and air search).

 

[PuckChaser]

RCN and RCAF are getting the attention for two reasons. First South and North East Asia theatres are naval and air theatres. The Arctic threat is largely a naval and air threat (both NORAD or NORAD adjacent).

Also threats to Canada are going to float and fly. Defending Canada is the first mission of the CAF. The Army can't actually defend Canada from anyone (US included). So the focus rightly shifts there. Any land war the CAF is in is a likely a choice. An air or sea war however, that has a much higher chance to be involuntary.

Let's be honest here, the current count of ships and fighting aircraft aren't going to do much to defend an invasion of Canada either. My point wasn't to penis measure about who is more important, it's that there is a finite number of defense dollars and RCN/RCAF are rightfully getting their share now due to years of poor planning for replacements of major capital assets. $50 BCAD for 12-15 ships is a great PR figure, and to spend that on the CA, we'd have to replace every single vehicle and handheld weapon system we own to get close.

 

[Underway]

Let's be honest here, the current count of ships and fighting aircraft aren't going to do much to defend an invasion of Canada either. My point wasn't to penis measure about who is more important, it's that there is a finite number of defense dollars and RCN/RCAF are rightfully getting their share now due to years of poor planning for replacements of major capital assets. $50 BCAD for 12-15 ships is a great PR figure, and to spend that on the CA, we'd have to replace every single vehicle and handheld weapon system we own to get close.

Defend is more than invasion but point well taken.