Attempted assassination of Donald Trump 13 July 2024

[jackamela]

So it ends up where most safety/security investigations end up: someone skipped something out.

Well, it is increasingly looking like an extraordinary concatenation of a considerable number of people missing out on doing a remarkable number of rather large things.

So 'some people did some things' isn't quite going to cut it in this case.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

You think they decided to take a lunch break ........ during Trump's speech??

If so, it makes the notion that they "did their job" rather a hard one to defend, doesn't it.

Mighty fortuitous for the shooter, in that case... and darned handy that they left the ladder in position.

What are the odds?

Could be the "Team" was made up of individuals that exceeded the weight limit of the roof and they weren't keen on trying to climb it.

Also keep in mind the budget and training for PD's in the US varies wildly from super professional to comically inept.

 

[Haggis]

Now, a team coming down from the roof for lunch/cause it’s very hot? Should have had a positive handoff of the space to someone else- a relief in place. If that’s what happened (or I guess didn’t), someone needs to be fired.

I would say that getting fired is the least of their concerns. That being said a phalanx of lawyers has likely already assembled.

 

[Quirky]

Conspiracies on both sides are quite amusing.
Trump supporters: Law enforcement intentionally left that roof open, current government agencies wanted to kill the ex-president a la JFK for his anti-war stance on Ukraine.
Biden supporters: Trump organized the shooting to gain support to solidify re-election. He will do anything to get back into office including killing and injuring his rally supporters. (these were from street interviews in California).

 

[brihard]

Well, it is increasingly looking like an extraordinary concatenation of a considerable number of people missing out on doing a remarkable number of rather large things.

So 'some people did some things' isn't quite going to cut it in this case.

Not necessarily? From our superficial understanding so far- if USSS expected cops on the roof, that explains everything we see from the counter sniper side.

If, meanwhile, the local/state police had responsibility for that specific building and left that gap uncovered for a period of time ( exigence, complacency, miscommunications, whatever), that’s a single point of critical failure. There’s more coming out now about the subject hanging out in the area and potentially blending in with others, including people who were armed. If he was doing a real time recce, opportunistically watching for a gap to open- it’s conceivable that the whole gong show is that simple, or close to it. None of which excuses anything- but applying Occam’a razor may be useful.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

So it ends up where most safety/security investigations end up: someone skipped something out.

With some many different agencies being involved it might come down to something like this:

" I thought you were looking after it!"

"No, you were supposed to be looking after it!"

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Not necessarily? From our superficial understanding so far- if USSS expected cops on the roof, that explains everything we see from the counter sniper side.

If, meanwhile, the local/state police had responsibility for that specific building and left that gap uncovered for a period of time ( exigence, complacency, miscommunications, whatever), that’s a single point of critical failure. There’s more coming out now about the subject hanging out in the area and potentially blending in with others, including people who were armed. If he was doing a real time recce, opportunistically watching for a gap to open- it’s conceivable that the whole gong show is that simple, or close to it. None of which excuses anything- but applying Occam’a razor may be useful.

Unfortunately, we'll never know if he was a strategist that spent days planning or an opportunist who said, "There’s an opening to exploit." What would he have done if there had been a LEO presence on the roof. We'll be speculating for years to come.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Bit of a loaded question, how do American police compare to Canadian provincial police and the RCMP?

Is there just too many agencies (with different standards) to compare them too?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Bit of a loaded question, how do American police compare to Canadian provincial police and the RCMP?

Is there just too many agencies (with different standards) to compare them too?

Bored, are we?

 

[lenaitch]

Bit of a loaded question, how do American police compare to Canadian provincial police and the RCMP?

Is there just too many agencies (with different standards) to compare them too?

I was going to mention that. We, in Canada, have no concept of the number of private, local, county, state and federal law enforcement agencies there are in the US. Wiki has it around 18K; years ago I was at the Canadian embassy in DC and the RCMP police liaison estimated 20K, so take your pick. He used the example of a drunk staggering down a sidewalk in DC. Depending on where it was, he listed off the potential agences that would be responsible if the drunk passed out and fell to one side.

In our bike trips around the US (mostly mid-west and northeast) we would often chat up local law and maybe swap a shoulder patch or two. The number of one-or-two member town departments, maybe with a part timer was surprising. Ran into one guy in Illinois and he, being the chief, was the only full-time employee and his annual department budget was less that an typical Ontario constable.

 

[Blackadder1916]

That building was supposed to have the local SWAT snipers on it.

In the advance, those sorts of positions are noted and supposed to be occupied. Due to the team limits it was assigned to the locals. There is conflicting information as to if they came down due to the heat, or they took a lunch break - either way the local team left their position and gave the shooter relatively unfettered access to the roof.

But who's the "locals"?

I'm sure that multiple agencies fall into that category. A quick glance at what some of the "locals" had to say about the event that happened in "Butler, PA"

City of Butler PD

ButlerCityPD.org

The Butler City Police Department strives to make the city a safe place to live, work and visit through community safety and crime reduction.

butlercitypd.org

7/13/2024
Greetings,
The event concerning former President Trump did not occur in the City of Butler. It was in a Township surrounding our area. The FBI has assumed the role of the lead federal law enforcement agency in the investigation. The FBI is now issuing all press related material.

Butler County Sheriff

Sheriff | Butler County, PA

The mission of the County Sheriff is to provide the highest level of law enforcement and professional services which is supported by a positive, focused, and forward approach to accomplish these goals for the benefit of the residents and taxpayers of this County.

www.butlercountypa.gov

**No LTC Events in Cranberry until further notice​

Maps show location of Trump, gunman, law enforcement snipers at Pennsylvania rally shooting

The gunman who opened fire Saturday night at Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, was armed with an AR-style rifle, about 400 feet from the stage.

www.cbsnews.com

An armed municipal officer with Butler Township encountered the gunman before the shooting, Butler County Sheriff Michael Sloupe confirmed to CBS News. The officer and others had been previously alerted to a suspicious person and began searching for him right away, Sloupe told CBS Pittsburgh reporter Jen Borrasso.

The officer was hoisted by another officer onto the roof of the building where the shooter was in position. The shooter focused his rifle towards the officer, who let go and fell off the roof. Then the shooter began firing into the crowd, according to Sloupe.

Butler Township Police Department

Police Department - Butler Township

The Butler Township Police Department is managed by Chief John Hays and consists of a lieutenant, four patrol sergeants, two detectives, thirteen full time patrol officers, two part time dog law enforcement officers, and two full time clerical support staff.

butlertwp.org

The Butler Township Police Department is managed by Chief John Hays and consists of a lieutenant, four patrol sergeants, three detectives, twelve full time patrol officers, one part time dog law enforcement officer, and two full time clerical support staff. The police officers are continuously participating in advanced training and the police vehicles contain the latest equipment to aid in law enforcement, such as video recording devices and mobile data terminals. Here at Butler Township Police, we believe that “working with you, we can make a difference!

And according to Wikipedia

On July 13, 2024, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump took place in Butler Township, in the Butler Farm Show Grounds. At the event, Butler Township police primarily did traffic duties. The majority of the venue is in adjacent Connoquenessing Township, and that township uses the Pennsylvania State Police as its local law enforcement. Therefore the state police agency filled several law enforcement duties during the event instead of the Butler Township police.

Attempted assassination of Donald Trump​

The Pennsylvania State Police, which serves as the local law enforcement agency of Connoquenessing Township, provided coverage of a Donald Trump rally held on July 13, 2024 at the Butler Farm Show Grounds; the majority of that venue is located in Connoquenessing Township. The attempted assassination of Donald Trump occurred at that event. Trump was located in the Butler Township side when the attempt occurred.

Connoquenessing Township

Emergency Services – Township of Connoquenessing

Police
Law enforcement in Connoquenessing Township is provided by the Pennsylvania State Police, Troop D, headquartered in neighboring Butler Township.

 

[lenaitch]

That building was supposed to have the local SWAT snipers on it.

In the advance, those sorts of positions are noted and supposed to be occupied. Due to the team limits it was assigned to the locals. There is conflicting information as to if they came down due to the heat, or they took a lunch break - either way the local team left their position and gave the shooter relatively unfettered access to the roof.

Again (to advance my theory based on absolutely nothing), if the USSS was briefed that there was supposed to be a local sniper/observer on that roof, their sniper might have been saying to himself 'where the hell is he - oh good, there he is - oh wait . . . '

Or, like the sniper who was likely told not to engage, were told to come down.

Which, to me sounds vastly more credible than "oh, hum I know we're supposed to protect the most viscerally hated person in the world, but I forgot my sandwich downstairs". Comically absurd.

@Remius perhaps you were right after all.

Anyway here's the montage we were all waiting for, incidentally showing the shooter's presence was known well in advance:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812731727053488418

@KevinB as you said, interagency work: distrust and verify. Whether or not the USSS was officially responsible for that rooftop is irrelevant. The buck stops with them. They chose to trust blindly and close their eyes instead. People died.

Many of us on this forum have done similar work. This shit would not fly for any of us had we been in charge. I must say I grow tired of the excuses regularly made here for systems that get people killed or empty platitudes like "defense has to succeed 100% of the time, offense only 1 time", when the failure came down to such a glaring and catastrophically stupid series of "mistakes".

Blaming comms is juvie type stuff. You're the USSS, you're telling me you haven't had time to develop a functional system in the 61 years between JFK and Trump's assassinations? Because yes, for all intents and purposes, as far as the USSS is concerned, Trump has been assassinated. Saved only by the heavenly voice of Shinzo Abe, or whatever.

Take responsibility, coordinate, and implement redundancies. Put a drone up in the air, for Pete's sake, it's 2024.

No excuses.

The more people and agencies, the more points of potential failure.

Maybe the USSS has wanted all along to have the nation and world-wide staffing to handle this all by themselves, and maybe they have never been given the budget or jurisdictional freedom. Even something as simple as closing a local road for a motorcade would be fraught with federal-state legal issues.

Security is never 100%; it is even less when the principle wants to be public-facing or public engaging, or simply independent. You can image the kittens security has when a public figure decides to do a walkabout. At the aforementioned Toronto G7, the French President decided it was a nice evening and wanted to walk to, if I recall, the Royal Canadian Military Institute on University Ave. It wasn't my detail but I was told there was much scrambling and confusion.

 

[QV]

I was going to mention that. We, in Canada, have no concept of the number of private, local, county, state and federal law enforcement agencies there are in the US. Wiki has it around 18K; years ago I was at the Canadian embassy in DC and the RCMP police liaison estimated 20K, so take your pick. He used the example of a drunk staggering down a sidewalk in DC. Depending on where it was, he listed off the potential agences that would be responsible if the drunk passed out and fell to one side.

In our bike trips around the US (mostly mid-west and northeast) we would often chat up local law and maybe swap a shoulder patch or two. The number of one-or-two member town departments, maybe with a part timer was surprising. Ran into one guy in Illinois and he, being the chief, was the only full-time employee and his annual department budget was less that an typical Ontario constable.

Reminds me of the wild west; sheriffs, Pinkerton Detectives, and deputy marshals etc all roaming around.

 

[brihard]

Bit of a loaded question, how do American police compare to Canadian provincial police and the RCMP?

Is there just too many agencies (with different standards) to compare them too?

No way to meaningfully compare. Cross a given county lines or municipal boundary and the quality and professionalism of the police of jurisdiction can do a full 180. And also a given police service may excel in some things and suck at others.

 

[KevinB]

Well, it is increasingly looking like an extraordinary concatenation of a considerable number of people missing out on doing a remarkable number of rather large things.

So 'some people did some things' isn't quite going to cut it in this case.

Well I’m sure you are basing this on your extensive background in LE, Counter Sniper work and Personal Protection?

 

[Booter]

I’m sure there was a brief where USSS signed off on a plan where the local team provided their concept of ops. They then said “looks good”

The USSS can’t stand next to the team while they do their job- they have to trust that when they are given a plan that it is executed. In this case it wasn’t- it collapsed- and the USSS recovered the op.

There is not a good comparison from Canada and the States in this stuff.

Large city forces in Canada have great teams that area rcmp teams work well with. Large city teams in the US are pros too.

Local level “teams” can be as low as a 40 hour NTOA course, “Basic Swat” you can look the syllabus up online. I did it with one of their instructors ten years ago to look into their curriculum.

There are small teams popping up around Canada in small forces that are also falling into that training trap, 40 hours, a gas course, an old armoured vehicle.

The answer is- there is no answer because the high standard and the low standard are so far apart. And some of those small teams are so busy that they become good by experience. So even that’s not totally a good metric.

It comes down to- is a small place better off having some capability or are they better off knowing they shouldnt be doing something?

That’s a philosophical question for their politicians. Ideally you’d have a national standard but in my experience when you make a national standard your bar comes down to meet something lower- not up.

 

[KevinB]

You think they decided to take a lunch break ........ during Trump's speech??

I wasn’t there, so I’m relying on some that were.

If so, it makes the notion that they "did their job" rather a hard one to defend, doesn't it.

I don’t recall I said that entities outside of the USSS did their job.

Mighty fortuitous for the shooter, in that case... and darned handy that they left the ladder in position.

What are the odds?

I think you really need to step away from the keyboard and get some fresh air.

The shooter took his father’s rifle (was bought 13 years ago) but a value pack of 50rds of 55gr FMJ and went to the venue.
It doesn’t appear that he zeroed the rifle prior.

So I’d suggest that he simply drove around looking for an opening. Either he saw the team come off the roof and noticed it was left open or he stumbled on the open roof by accident.

Suggesting that there was some sort of conspiracy is ludicrous, you could easily find a lot of more qualified shooters to do it from longer range.

All you are doing here is looking like a raving assclown.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Well, it is increasingly looking like an extraordinary concatenation of a considerable number of people missing out on doing a remarkable number of rather large things.

So 'some people did some things' isn't quite going to cut it in this case.

Not necessarily. If a team was assigned to the roof and pre-event briefings let all participants know where people were located, then it was reasonable for everyone to think the roof was covered and to assume anyone on the roof was a member of that team. That knowledge would situate the reaction to every report of "Hey, look at that". It would certainly (I hope) cause hesitation before opening fire. The only lapse would be what amounts to temporary abandonment of a post. And I doubt the standing procedures include "stand down for a break any time you feel like it if you think the situation is secure". "Know the standard, follow the standard, teach the standard, enforce the standard."

 

[Brad Sallows]

Unfortunately, we'll never know if he was a strategist that spent days planning or an opportunist who said, "There’s an opening to exploit." What would he have done if there had been a LEO presence on the roof. We'll be speculating for years to come.

Unless he went to scout-sniper camp while all the other kids were going to band camp or space camp, or went into the army right after graduation and was fast-tracked after boot into a ninja-ranger stream, "opportunistic amateur" is the way to bet.

 

[GR66]

CNN is reporting on some of the know movements of the shooter in the 48-hours before the assassination attempt, but apparently no clear indication of motive yet...or even of his researching bomb making.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/15/us/thomas-crooks-trump-rally-shooting-invs/index.html