CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia

[YZT580]

I don’t like to draw on events from an over a century ago, in which a nations entire system of government has changed three times, to inform my view on how they’ll operate now. However if the Baltic fleet either leaves or is destroyed it becomes a moot point. And this whole concern that some how Russia will get the drop on us and mass / execute before any NATO counter is mute.

as the saying goes, those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. You could be right but the issue under discussion is identifying potential first moves in a European war. I don't believe that Russia will allow their Baltic fleet to be destroyed in position but will sortie prior to initiating any hostilities and that action should trigger our own fly-over.

 

[markppcli]

as the saying goes, those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. You could be right but the issue under discussion is identifying potential first moves in a European war. I don't believe that Russia will allow their Baltic fleet to be destroyed in position but will sortie prior to initiating any hostilities and that action should trigger our own fly-over.

I agree with the history point but I tend to take that as a lesson about generalisms and the human condition more so than drawing a link between Tsarist Imperial Russia and the Russian Federations naval doctrine.

The Russian Baltic Fleet isn’t some bogey man either, it’s a Destroyer, 2 Frigates, and a handful of corvettes along side their landing ships. Several have been in long term refit since 2019, several are committed to Ukraine, and some have been damaged or destroyed in Ukraine. The most important combat power the Russian Navy provides in the Baltic are their two Mig 27 Squadrons and a Naval Infantry Bde… and how Ukraine has affected those equipment stocks who knows.

That said a sortie would have largely the same effect as them being destroyed in the Baltic Sea, ie NATO gains complete control of the lake.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Low season only.

Invasion by economy class air fare, and the are only allowed to occupy 2 star resorts.

 

[MilEME09]

as the saying goes, those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. You could be right but the issue under discussion is identifying potential first moves in a European war. I don't believe that Russia will allow their Baltic fleet to be destroyed in position but will sortie prior to initiating any hostilities and that action should trigger our own fly-over.

Unless the Baltic fleet starts using nuclear torpedo's at minute 1 of a conflict, they wont last very long, the baltic fleet has also been heavily mixed with the northern fleet for the Mediterranean flotilla to support ops in Syria. The biggest asset Russia has in Kaliningrad is nukes, and their OTHR sites.

 

[FJAG]

I agree with the history point but I tend to take that as a lesson about generalisms and the human condition more so than drawing a link between Tsarist Imperial Russia and the Russian Federations naval doctrine.

The part of history that strikes me with the scenarios that are being discussed here is more like the mobilization cycles of WW1. Essentially once the "mobilize and execute Schlieffen-plan" and "mobilize and execute Le plan XVII" messages were sent out by telegraph, putting the genie back into the bottle became practically impossible.

 

[KevinB]

The part of history that strikes me with the scenarios that are being discussed here is more like the mobilization cycles of WW1. Essentially once the "mobilize and execute Schlieffen-plan" and "mobilize and execute Le plan XVII" messages were sent out by telegraph, putting the genie back into the bottle became practically impossible.

Or in modern terms, when Putin gets an idea in his head...

 

[FJAG]

Reent article/video on artillery in MNB Latvia.

NATO Exercise PALADIN STRIKE in Latvia | Joint Forces News

NATO Allies have been rolling out big guns and practising air defence as part of Exercise PALADIN STRIKE at Ādaži Military Base in Latvia.

www.joint-forces.com

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Canadian soldier dies while off-duty in Latvia

Latvian State Police are investigating the death of Capt. Aaron Wideman, a Canadian soldier in the capital city of Riga.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[markppcli]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1855302622854496364

 

[FJAG]

A video of Ex Resolute Warrior in Latvia with quite a bit of Canadian content.

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

Troops look good!

 

[KevinB]

While not necessarily specific to the CAF...

Latvia selects Ascod infantry fighting vehicle for its land forces

The procurement is expected to cost as much as $265 million, and leaders in Riga are also in the market for new howitzers.

www.defensenews.com

 

[markppcli]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1857484829790711852

 

[MJP]

A video of Ex Resolute Warrior in Latvia with quite a bit of Canadian content.

Nice video. I am eager to hear how well looked the LTVs will be. It was always one of those things that our light Bns were missing was that ability to transit moderate distances in a tactical environment.

In any case it might not feel like it too many folks, but we are slowing building up to have a quite a modern army. The numbers might not be there but the platforms and capabilities coming online are Mike's ahead of what we currently have. There are issues (many) but living what I am seeing

 

[WestIsle]

Nice video. I am eager to hear how well looked the LTVs will be. It was always one of those things that our light Bns were missing was that ability to transit moderate distances in a tactical environment.

In any case it might not feel like it too many folks, but we are slowing building up to have a quite a modern army. The numbers might not be there but the platforms and capabilities coming online are Mike's ahead of what we currently have. There are issues (many) but living what I am seeing

There are the trappings of a modern army in Latvia but the situation for everyone is Canada isn't close. But Latvia is only a collection of various company sized combat elements.

 

[MJP]

There are the trappings of a modern army in Latvia but the situation for everyone is Canada isn't close. But Latvia is only a collection of various company sized combat elements.

There are aspects that is Latvia only right now, but the rest of the CA is modernizing as well domestically. I agree with you in some regards but at the end of the day we are replacing our clapped out stuff for new and shiny. That is a win, regardless how you look at it.

I wish we would dream bigger but a better baseline is better than status quo

 

[WestIsle]

There are aspects that is Latvia only right now, but the rest of the CA is modernizing as well domestically. I agree with you in some regards but at the end of the day we are replacing our clapped out stuff for new and shiny. That is a win, regardless how you look at it.

I wish we would dream bigger but a better baseline is better than status quo

Like how?
HIMARs is only on paper with no funds identified.
No funds for replacing donated guns and replacing the RCA with modern ones including SPH.
No ammo streams identified or invested in to secure replacement ammo.
Only tanks being upgraded are those going to Latvia.
No funds for new/modern rucksack/soldier systems.
CA slowly moving to upgrade light arms to 2010 levels with minimal funds provided.
Light vehicle fleet in garbage can with replacements moved even further to the right.
Some 4+ different fleets of medium logistics vehicles in our future.
I could go on but theres too much to mention and please do not tell me about how there is money in 2030. This was the exact same thing that was said in 2015 when projects cancelled and procurement funds removed only to be returned with interest in 2019....

 

[MJP]

I mean many of the CA's fleets are being refreshed both B and A fleets

We are regaining capabilities in AD, ATGM and CUAS

The CA's long term outlook has many key upgrades funded (recent DLR brf to senior CA folks)

Is it everything? No and I hope for more but am cautiously optimistic and happy to see improvement.

Your points are valid and I echo many of the same ones but short of WWIII breaking out and rapidly advancing the timelines, were are doing okish. I mean the CAF overall is on a decent future state. F35, JSS/ River class, P8s, Husky....

These are all generational things and while slow we are improving.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I mean many of the CA's fleets are being refreshed both B and A fleets

We are regaining capabilities in AD, ATGM and CUAS

The CA's long term outlook has many key upgrades funded (recent DLR brf to senior CA folks)

Is it everything? No and I hope for more but am cautiously optimistic and happy to see improvement.

Your points are valid and I echo many of the same ones but short of WWIII breaking out and rapidly advancing the timelines, were are doing okish. I mean the CAF overall is on a decent future state. F35, JSS/ River class, P8s, Husky....

These are all generational things and while slow we are improving.

Meanwhile, in their heads some think the F-35 acquisition might ...

 

[KevinB]

I mean many of the CA's fleets are being refreshed both B and A fleets

With insufficient numbers

We are regaining capabilities in AD, ATGM and CUAS

With insufficient numbers

The CA's long term outlook has many key upgrades funded (recent DLR brf to senior CA folks)

No holding my breathe as I expect yet again insufficient numbers to tread water will again be the order of the day.

Is it everything? No and I hope for more but am cautiously optimistic and happy to see improvement.

Your points are valid and I echo many of the same ones but short of WWIII breaking out and rapidly advancing the timelines, were are doing okish. I mean the CAF overall is on a decent future state. F35, JSS/ River class, P8s, Husky....

These are all generational things and while slow we are improving.

TBH when I joined the CAF in 1987, it was a lot more advanced and equipped for the time frame than the CAF is currently.