CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Kirkhill]

Just 30 seconds ago he’s pushing this 51st state BS. Unreal.

And he has got you thinking about anything but the problem.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Just 30 seconds ago he’s pushing this 51st state BS. Unreal.

I don't see it as actual territorial ambition, moreso an "or else" - "play ball or the result will leave you wishing you were the 51st state"

 

[OldSolduer]

Impulsive moves like this, even before we know what's what, is not conducive to amicable discussion or negotiation.

Impulsive moves are quite often emotional moves - "we'll fucking show him eh troops" rather than "take a deep breath, have a look at this and lets see what the ramifications are"

I really think the Boston Pizza guy is better than O'Leary. Just my opinion.

 

[brihard]

Impulsive moves are quite often emotional moves - "we'll fucking show him eh troops" rather than "take a deep breath, have a look at this and lets see what the ramifications are"

I really think the Boston Pizza guy is better than O'Leary. Just my opinion.

I would be wondering if Ford and the Ontario government have in fact actually yet taken the formal steps to cancel any contract or issued any prohibition on contract bidding or if, like Trump, it’s simply an unequivocal communication that serious consequences will follow if some smartening up doesn’t occur? The public consumption version can be simpler and more direct, with backchannel comms that it’s conditional on what happens WRT tariffs- e.g., tariffs imposed at 10 am will mean a contract cancelled at 10:15.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Those are possible. I could see supply management being on the table. Pretty sure the US already had freedom of movement in northern waters but could be wrong. US banks already have access. Not keen on private banks coming in.

Tried to situate the estimate with things that- while I wouldn't love- would be tolerable and justifiable sacrifices. Added a 6th point after you quoted on non-NA auto tariffs.

Looking at the list- seems like a reasonable price to pay for a return to status quo ish. But we're not returning to status quo-ish, we're going into a new state of being that is more favourable to the US and cedes some major ground in our self-determination, as result of a shakedown. Depending on the ask(s) we might be at an inflection point where appeasement leaves us even more vulnerable in the future- and we now have to decide between the pain (and eventual payoff) of rebuilding an independent economy, or 100% embracing being the junior partner in fortress North America.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Except Carney ain't that guy.

At least, to start, I seriously think Kevin O'Leary might be someone we can use. He knows Trump, has broke bread with him. Understands manufacturing, economics, world markets and the problems on both side of the border. Has bought and sold billion dollar companies and understands what makes them work. He has voiced a preference for a strong, homogeneous economic union with the US.

He certainly has a more intelligent view of things than anyone in the trudeau fold.

Since Mulroney is no longer with us, Kevin might be the only other person available who has some credibility down there in those Republican circles.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Impulsive moves are quite often emotional moves - "we'll fucking show him eh troops" rather than "take a deep breath, have a look at this and lets see what the ramifications are"

I really think the Boston Pizza guy is better than O'Leary. Just my opinion.

Make them a team?

 

[OldSolduer]

I would be wondering if Ford and the Ontario government have in fact actually yet taken the formal steps to cancel any contract or issued any prohibition on contract bidding or if, like Trump, it’s simply an unequivocal communication that serious consequences will follow if some smartening up doesn’t occur? The public consumption version can be simpler and more direct, with backchannel comms that it’s conditional on what happens WRT tariffs- e.g., tariffs imposed at 10 am will mean a contract cancelled at 10:15.

Could be a combination of "we'll fucking show him eh troops?" and "lets see how far this guy will bend - someone find me some COAs please"

The first is for public consumption and the second is far more reasonable.

 

[OldSolduer]

Make them a team?

They were mates on Dragons Den.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

They were mates on Dragons Den.

Yup, and they cut each other's throats to get the deal they want, but have beers when the cameras are off. Being able to bargain hard yet leave the emotion out of it, posturing for tv aside, is a sign of a good businessman.

 

[McG]

Canada to write a cheque and get out of the way for a "joint" base at Nanasivik

Who is asking for this? On toxic spoils of the old mine?

 

[brihard]

Something to remember, as a Trump trots out this that and the other thing in the eleventh hour before tariffs hit:

Legally. Trump’s tariffs are enacted under specific law, and are explicitly tied in his Executive Order directly and only to his claims about the actions of drug trafficking organizations at the border. Absent this declared emergency he does not have legal authority for arbitrarily doing what he did.

His actual executive order establishing the reasons for the tariffs and their extent can be read here: Read the full text of Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on Canada

Any claims or demands he makes outside of the strict scope of the articulated drug trafficking emergency are just him screwing around and abusing this executive power to try to leverage further gain. We know this and none of us are surprised by it, but just to clearly laid it out so we’re all on the same page.

 

[McG]

Let’s just relax the regulations that prevent banks exploiting customers and maybe he won’t Anschluss us.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1886493556971593867

 

[brihard]

Could be a combination of "we'll fucking show him eh troops?" and "lets see how far this guy will bend - someone find me some COAs please"

The first is for public consumption and the second is far more reasonable.

Going after Starlink is a direct shot at applying pressure via Elon Musk. Same as the inclusion of electric vehicles in the first 25% round of tariffs.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Something to remember, as a Trump trots out this that and the other thing in the eleventh hour before tariffs hit:

Legally. Trump’s tariffs are enacted under specific law, and are explicitly tied in his Executive Order directly and only to his claims about the actions of drug trafficking organizations at the border. Absent this declared emergency he does not have legal authority for arbitrarily doing what he did.

His actual executive order establishing the reasons for the tariffs and their extent can be read here: Read the full text of Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on Canada

Any claims or demands he makes outside of the strict scope of the articulated drug trafficking emergency are just him screwing around and abusing this executive power to try to leverage further gain. We know this and none of us are surprised by it, but just to clearly laid it out so we’re all on the same page.

"Alex, I'll take 'What is smoke and mirrors' for 1000$"

 

[QV]

Something to remember, as a Trump trots out this that and the other thing in the eleventh hour before tariffs hit:

Legally. Trump’s tariffs are enacted under specific law, and are explicitly tied in his Executive Order directly and only to his claims about the actions of drug trafficking organizations at the border. Absent this declared emergency he does not have legal authority for arbitrarily doing what he did.

His actual executive order establishing the reasons for the tariffs and their extent can be read here: Read the full text of Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on Canada

Any claims or demands he makes outside of the strict scope of the articulated drug trafficking emergency are just him screwing around and abusing this executive power to try to leverage further gain. We know this and none of us are surprised by it, but just to clearly laid it out so we’re all on the same page.

Trump's rhetoric is laying the ground work for future pain should the issues outlined in the EO are not addressed. The Mexican blink is the example. As is Panama.

 

[The Bread Guy]

3) Having now flexed and gotten us to jump, DJT reveals specific the economic and geopolitical concessions he requires to forgo tariffs.

4) DJT moves the goalposts again outside the scope of the executive order, and keeps playing about.

Let’s just relax the regulations that prevent banks exploiting customers and maybe he won’t Anschluss us.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1886493556971593867

Ouch - this from a (at least what used to be) rabidly anti-Trudeau/Team Red kinda guy. Interesting evolution ...

 

[IKnowNothing]

“I did ask him a couple of questions,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “Canada is very tough. Canada is very, you know, we’re not treated well by Canada. And we have to be treated well.”

This line brought to mind this quote that's been floating around the internet for years
" Sometimes people use “respect” to mean “treating someone like a person” and sometimes they use “respect” to mean “treating someone like an authority”- and sometimes people who are used to being treated like an authority say “if you won’t respect me I won’t respect you” and they mean “if you won’t treat me like an authority I won’t treat you like a person”


The words "well" and "fair" have an entirely different meaning to a man of Trumps ego, privilege, and complete lack of ethics.

4) DJT moves the goalposts again outside the scope of the executive order, and keeps playing about.

Same option, different words.

 

[McG]

Ouch - this from a (at least what used to be) rabidly anti-Trudeau/Team Red kinda guy. Interesting evolution ...

I am sure he still is. You don’t have to like Trudeau to know Anschluss is wrong.

 

[McG]

As the tariffs are obviously a tool on Trump’s annexation ambitions, maybe we should merge the tariffs thread into the annexation thread? U.S. Annexing Canada (split fm Liberal Minority thread)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1886503212657861061