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Georgia and the Russian invasions/annexations/Lebensraum (2008 & 2015)

tomahawk6 said:
I thought it was instructive that the Russians made good use of Chechen special forces.
If Ukraine were attacked they would also see Russian troops striking from Belarus. I hate to say it small professional armies just dont cut it when you have to face 100,000 invaders or more. The best defense for Poland,the Ukraine and others is large well equiped and trained ground forces supported by modern air forces and air defenses. You want to let the Russians know that the Russians will pay a heavy price for regime change.

What are the chances that western and Israel special forces or even mercenaries were involved?  There's been Russian media reports of captured western mercenaries but I'm waiting on more sources to report because I can't take any mass media seriously in this day in age. What I can say is it is interesting that there was exercises in Georgia a month before. Perhaps this is the reason why Russia was so quick to respond to the war crimes at the border city. This was practically Russia's 9/11. I for one don't side with them but I don't blame them either. Georgia was stupid to start this mess and they should have known better.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL1556589920080715
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=SimpleSite/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1218446175084


In the worlds of Sgt. Steven Pink from the War Tapes. "...I have lost all faith in the media. A hapless joke I'd rather laugh at than be apart of..."
 
Regardless of who did what, and even if the United States wasn't involved in WW IV, it is highly unlikely that the West would have intervened on behalf of Georgia. The logistical difficulties are too great, the risks too high, and the perceived threat to "national interest" is too small to justify intervention. (Historically, this was the same during the Russian Civil War and when the Great Powers attempting to divvy up the spoils of the Ottoman Empire after the Great War. Even the Romans had difficulties in their day).

We need to look at containment strategies that eliminate Russian strengths; including discovering means to substitute oil and other hydrocarbons from the energy budget. If the United States does succeed in finding means to create a low cost substitute for imported oil (perhaps some sort of biological system using genetically engineered algae or bacteria), then the price of oil will drop like a stone and Russia (and autocratic Middle Eastern regimes) will have their financial arteries cut.

Given the kleptocratic nature of the current Russian government, aggressive international law enforcement against money laundering and shining the spotlight on financial corruption by Gazprom and other state enterprises will dry up a lot of foreign investment, further hobbling the ability of the Russian State to carry out prolonged aggression. (Monies currently lining the ruling elite's pockets is hardly going to be released to invest in productivity or military upgrades).

The last thing that needs to be kept in mind is Russia is undergoing a demographic meltdown. While it is cold comfort for the here and now, Russia's ethnic Russian population will probably be halved in 35 years due to the catastrophic below replacement birthrates. The lack of manpower will finish Russia as a "Great Power"; there will be no one to man the borders and keep the economy running (and of course the critical mass of educated and skilled people to provide leadership and innovation will also be shrinking, probably in greater proportion than the rural population. This is also happening in Europe, Canada and the Democratic "Blue" States). Much of Russia's activities in the "near abroad", the "Stans" and along the Chinese border may reflect the fears of ethnic Russians of being submerged in a sea of peoples of other religions and ethnicity's.

 
The logistics isnt all that difficult if we use Turkey and our bases in that country. If we can get the Turks to be our proxy we might be able to counter the Russians. Offer the Turks increased financial/military assistance in exchange for being pro-active in the region. It is in their best interest after all.
 
tomahawk6 said:
The logistics isnt all that difficult if we use Turkey and our bases in that country. If we can get the Turks to be our proxy we might be able to counter the Russians. Offer the Turks increased financial/military assistance in exchange for being pro-active in the region. It is in their best interest after all.

This may be bit of a sticky wicket, in that NATO, the US and Turkey have different views on the Kurds in Iraq and their activities along that border. 
 
tomahawk6 said:
The logistics isnt all that difficult if we use Turkey and our bases in that country. If we can get the Turks to be our proxy we might be able to counter the Russians. Offer the Turks increased financial/military assistance in exchange for being pro-active in the region. It is in their best interest after all.

Doesn't the US already supply a chunk of Turkey's GDP?  ;D
 
oligarch said:
On another note, Georgian troops firing at refugees: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhFPcNxybIs

There is no proof in that video except for some hearsay.
 
There are plenty of sources that consistently report Russia's escalating the conflict before Georgia made its move. All you provide is a video of a reporter that "saw" a bus with broken glass and some "bullet holes" and an old woman talking out of window saying she heard of the great Georgian atrocities yet she wasn't there and no one appears to have collaborating proof. There is video and photographic evidence of Russia planes bombing civilian targets, do you have any actual video to back up Georgian forces attacking civilians? If not, then your credibility is pretty shot up.
 
meni0n said:
There are plenty of sources that consistently report Russia's escalating the conflict before Georgia made its move. All you provide is a video of a reporter that "saw" a bus with broken glass and some "bullet holes" and an old woman talking out of window saying she heard of the great Georgian atrocities yet she wasn't there and no one appears to have collaborating proof. There is video and photographic evidence of Russia planes bombing civilian targets, do you have any actual video to back up Georgian forces attacking civilians? If not, then your credibility is pretty shot up.

Are you high? Are you trying to tell me that RUSSIA bombed Tshinvali? Did you not see pictures of Tshinvali? Or did the Ossetians bomb themselves?

Please provide these "sources" you speak of and explain to me why they are more credible than what you have provided. Besides, minion, what are you trying to prove?
 
I am proving that Russia is not an innocent peacekeeper that you are trying to portray it to be. I am also proving that you are providing hearsay and fiction as fact and base your arguments on it, yet you can't back it up. If you read any of the reports on CFR.ORG, Jamestown, heck look a page back at the german site that Rock provided. Russia and SO were taking potshots at Georgian troops and police for days before Georgia decided to act. Hmm, let's see, today Russians killed a Dutch journalist and some civilians while bombing Gori. It is very easy to find pictures and video of Gori completely destroyed. I am not going to hotlink graphic images on the site. Show me the great evidence of ethnic cleansing Russia has been so passionate about, they have control of SO right now yet not a single shot of evidence is being presented. How odd is that eh?
 
In a move typical of members of a democratic and free society, I see I am no longer allowed to edit my posts. Oh well. Anyways, I have more gruesome pictures of Tshinivali... you know pictures of Ossetian civilians without heads and arms and limbs but I don't think its nessesary to post them, but it appears I have to.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043639/Pensioners-burned-alive-church-baby-stabbed-death--just-horrific-stories-Georgia.html

Tshinvali:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5kjsMUruPA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT-ffoxOsLA


HERE IS SOME VIDEO OF GEORGIAN FORCES ATTACKING GEORGIAN CITIVILIANS...  see at 0:19 that is the firing of a grad installation, which the Georgians used to shell the cities... aftermath of which bombings attached in the pictures below: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-hkyJLZLJo

Grad is not something you use to make "precise attacks" with, it is something you try to level a city with. Georgians had 40 of them.
 
oligarch, you may want to provide warnings in the future when you post graphic photos.  Not everyone who posts here is a military member, an adult, or really wants to see such photos.  I personally have no real problem with them, but I can't see everyone being willing to look at a picture of a decaying lady.  That can be pretty disturbing stuff to some people.
Maybe just provide links to such photos.

Just me rambling here...
 
Koenigsegg said:
oligarch, you may want to provide warnings in the future when you post graphic photos.  Not everyone who posts here is a military member, an adult, or really wants to see such photos.  I personally have no real problem with them, but I can't see everyone being willing to look at a picture of a decaying lady.  That can be pretty disturbing stuff to some people.
Maybe just provide links to such photos.

Just me rambling here...

My apologies. I tried not posting these images but a certain individual was quite emphatic when asking for proof that innocent civilians were dying. Also, these came directly from my computer so I didn't know how the attachments systems works on here yet. However, I understand the concerns and I will be more descrete in the future.

This is not as graphic but also shows images of civilians who were killed South Ossetia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oh9rrLRX1gM

I think Saakashvili should be tried for war crimes. Would bombing of a civilian area which has a distinct national identity such as South Ossetia be qualified as genocide under internation law?
 
meni0n said:
I am proving that Russia is not an innocent peacekeeper that you are trying to portray it to be. I am also proving that you are providing hearsay and fiction as fact and base your arguments on it, yet you can't back it up. If you read any of the reports on CFR.ORG, Jamestown, heck look a page back at the german site that Rock provided. Russia and SO were taking potshots at Georgian troops and police for days before Georgia decided to act. Hmm, let's see, today Russians killed a Dutch journalist and some civilians while bombing Gori. It is very easy to find pictures and video of Gori completely destroyed. I am not going to hotlink graphic images on the site. Show me the great evidence of ethnic cleansing Russia has been so passionate about, they have control of SO right now yet not a single shot of evidence is being presented. How odd is that eh?

Exactly... I see a body, a few destroyed buildings and property and that's very normal for any conflict. I don't see any proof of this mass-ethnic cleansing that Russia has been throwing in everyones faces and that you have been "insisting" on happening constantly saying that there is this mythical evidence that you have stacked away somewhere that can prove this. I think the Western media would like to "see" this proof, if there was concrete proof you can bet your *** that it would be aired... unlike some other countries that don't even mention anything that could make them look bad, when the evidence "is" there. You haven't shown anything concrete enough to back up any of the big claims Russia has made and has already fed to their citizens as fact.

As for what was just posted when I was writing this, I see only claims by the Russian media and a few guesses as to how certain people died and what happened where. I'm wondering if some of these claims by civilians are just to rally support towards the rebels.
 
TacticalW said:
Exactly... I see a body, a few destroyed buildings and property and that's very normal for any conflict. I don't see any proof of this mass-ethnic cleansing that Russia has been throwing in everyones faces and that you have been "insisting" on happening constantly saying that there is this mythical evidence that you have stacked away somewhere that can prove this. I think the Western media would like to "see" this proof, if there was concrete proof you can bet your *** that it would be aired... unlike some other countries that don't even mention anything that could make them look bad, when the evidence "is" there. You haven't shown anything concrete enough to back up any of the big claims Russia has made and has already fed to their citizens as fact.

As for what was just posted when I was writing this, I see only claims by the Russian media and a few guesses as to how certain people died and what happened where. I'm wondering if some of these claims by civilians are just to rally support towards the rebels.

I see.... so what kind of proof are you looking for? As for it being aired, you really need to take a look at Noam Chomsky's "Manufacturing Consent". Ethnic cleansing occured because ... not pay attention you might miss it again...  GEORGIAN forces BOMBED CIVILIANS OF A PARTICULAR DISTINCT RACE, THAT BEING OSSETIAN. They bombed a city which they knew is populated by Ossetians, resulting in over 1500 deaths, 2000 according to Russian sources (not disputed by the west by the way), and this qualifies as ethnic cleasing. Clear enough?
 
On that note, I'd like to insist that the 8 images I posted is more evident proof of ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia than the proof provided to the OUR public that "Osama did it" or that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
 
Thucydides said:
Regardless of who did what, and even if the United States wasn't involved in WW IV, it is highly unlikely that the West would have intervened on behalf of Georgia. The logistical difficulties are too great, the risks too high, and the perceived threat to "national interest" is too small to justify intervention. (Historically, this was the same during the Russian Civil War and when the Great Powers attempting to divvy up the spoils of the Ottoman Empire after the Great War. Even the Romans had difficulties in their day).
...

Agreed. There are always limits to the interests and capabilities of even the greatest powers.

Thucydides said:
...
We need to look at containment strategies that eliminate Russian strengths; including discovering means to substitute oil and other hydrocarbons from the energy budget. If the United States does succeed in finding means to create a low cost substitute for imported oil (perhaps some sort of biological system using genetically engineered algae or bacteria), then the price of oil will drop like a stone and Russia (and autocratic Middle Eastern regimes) will have their financial arteries cut.

Given the kleptocratic nature of the current Russian government, aggressive international law enforcement against money laundering and shining the spotlight on financial corruption by Gazprom and other state enterprises will dry up a lot of foreign investment, further hobbling the ability of the Russian State to carry out prolonged aggression. (Monies currently lining the ruling elite's pockets is hardly going to be released to invest in productivity or military upgrades).
...

This is part of what I had in mind when I mentioned American pushback.

But, further, and soon: Russia must be expelled from the G8. It never belonged in the first place. It is, as Thucydides says, a kleptocracy rather than a functioning, capitalist economy and Russia has demonstrated that it is completely unworthy of holding a place in the councils of the mighty and responsible. China, and maybe India and Brazil, too, should be invited "in" coincidentally with Russia's expulsion.

Thucydides said:
...
The last thing that needs to be kept in mind is Russia is undergoing a demographic meltdown. While it is cold comfort for the here and now, Russia's ethnic Russian population will probably be halved in 35 years due to the catastrophic below replacement birthrates. The lack of manpower will finish Russia as a "Great Power"; there will be no one to man the borders and keep the economy running (and of course the critical mass of educated and skilled people to provide leadership and innovation will also be shrinking, probably in greater proportion than the rural population. This is also happening in Europe, Canada and the Democratic "Blue" States). Much of Russia's activities in the "near abroad", the "Stans" and along the Chinese border may reflect the fears of ethnic Russians of being submerged in a sea of peoples of other religions and ethnicity's.

I have heard, but I cannot verify that Russians are abandoning (Chinese) border areas in Eastern Siberia. Some (a few? several?) Russian market towns in the border region have been described as largely Chinese: no efective Russian border guards/customs; Chinese money in the shops; even Chinese fire departments providing emergency services. Many Chinese believe that Siberia, the part East of the Yenisey River anyway, is naturally Chinese and will provide much needed resources and some lebensraum, too.

I think China regards any Russian aggression, except, perhaps towards NATO, as a threat to China. This would especially be the case as regards the Stans. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Shanghai Six) allows China to regard Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as being within its sphere of influence.

Regarding demographics: there is an old saying that the candle flares brightest just before it dies; perhaps that's what we're seeing now - the beginning of the end of Russia as a cohesive, thuggish, giant, Eurasian state.
 
Just to be devil's advocate.  I assuming that many folks on this site support the U.S incursion into Afghanistan and Iraq.  How come we are willing to accept that American self-defense extends thousands of miles from it borders, but when Russia intervenes in a neighboring country such as Chechnya or Georgia-this is seen to be thuggish, disproportionate an act of unnecessary hostility? Ironic that the U.S is lambasting Russia's use of strategic bombers in this conflict.  What exactly did they use in Afghanistan and Iraq?  Strategic bombers. 

Georgia is not a democracy, despite the west's attempts to portray it so.  NATO has become so desperate to be relevant that it is seeking the membership of anyone these days (including Georgia)-democratic principles is seemingly no longer a prerequisite.  Mikheil Saakashvili is hardly a reformer and is largely no better than his predecessor Eduard Shevardnadze and is certainly not the moral superior to Putin or Mevedev (all of these men are illiberal, brutal and elected).  If we are willing to tolerate regime change in countries thousands of miles from our borders why can we not accept that Russia is entitled to facilitate regime change as well?  Especially when we consider that  70% of South Ossetian's are Russian passport holders! Russia is being aggressive-the violence of action is now to their advantage.  Why should they not encourage Georgia never ever to mess with South Ossetia or their citizens again?  Frankly, I am getting quite tired of elements or governments causing conflicts and then demanding a ceasefire when it is clear they have bitten more off than they can chew.  This applies to Hezbollah in 2006 and also to Mikheil Saakashvili presently.
 
stegner said:
Just to be devil's advocate.   I assuming that many folks on this site support the U.S incursion into Afghanistan and Iraq.   How come we are willing to accept that American self-defense extends thousands of miles from it borders, but when Russia intervenes in a neighboring country such as Chechnya or Georgia-this is seen to be thuggish, disproportionate an act of unnecessary hostility? Ironic that the U.S is lambasting Russia's use of strategic bombers in this conflict.  What exactly did they use in Afghanistan and Iraq?  Strategic bombers.   

Georgia is not a democracy, despite the west's attempts to portray it so.   NATO has become so desperate to be relevant that it is seeking the membership of anyone these days (including Georgia)-democratic principles is seemingly no longer a prerequisite.  Mikheil Saakashvili is hardly a reformer and is largely no better than his predecessor Eduard Shevardnadze and is certainly not the moral superior to Putin or Mevedev (all of these men are illiberal, brutal and elected).  If we are willing to tolerate regime change in countries thousands of miles from our borders why can we not accept that Russia is entitled to facilitate regime change as well?  Especially when we consider that  70% of South Ossetian's are Russian passport holders! Russia is being aggressive-the violence of action is now to their advantage.  Why should they not encourage Georgia never ever to mess with South Ossetia or their citizens again?   Frankly, I am getting quite tired of elements or governments causing conflicts and then demanding a ceasefire when it is clear they have bitten more off than they can chew.   This applies to Hezbollah in 2006 and also to Mikheil Saakashvili presently.

I agree, very broadly, with you, stegner, on both points:

1. "We" - however narrowly defined, even just "we" here in Milnet.ca, me included - are not, in any way, immune to hypocrisy; and

2. The Russians had some largely free and pretty fair elections and they decided, freely and fairly and for themselves, to elect Stalinist thugs - thugs who promised them that they would "matter" once again.

But: the fact that Georgia is anything but a perfect liberal democracy does not score any points for Russia - it is still a bully and a thug, beating up on its small neighbours because it is terrified of its big ones. Russia is the aggressor. That ought to matter.
 
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