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Senlis Report: Double NATO Troops, Caveat Free, Into PAK

The Bread Guy

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Interesting recommendations from the Senlis Council in their latest report (.pdf):

Recommendations

A new, coherent strategic course for Afghanistan is now urgently needed.  The Senlis Council offers a number of recommendations stemming the slide into chaos, and a summary of these follows:

Recommendation 1:  "NATO Plus":  double ground forces, caveat-free, move into Pakistan  The present number of NATO-ISAF forces deployed in Afghanistan, and the restrictive operational caveats imposed upon them by several European governments, is easing the Taliban's position of dominance in many parts of the country.  Therefore, the force size should be doubled to 80,000 as soon as is logistically possible.  To reach this number, each country contributing to ISAF should make a troop commitment that is proportionate to their overall economic capacity.

For example, the Netherlands are currently contributing 2.3 soldiers per USD Billion GDP, while others are either above or below this troop commitment.  If all NATO member states brought their contribution to at least 2.3 soldiers per USD Billion GDP (or GBP0.5 Billion), the total number of troops would already increase to around 71,000.  The remaining 9,000 troops should come from Muslim countries.

The "NATO Plus" concept should entail:
- The incorporation of Muslim troops;
- An operational doctrine that shifts from a counterterrorism to counterinsurgency (COIN) approach;
- Lifting of national caveats on ISAF troops;
- A move into Pakistan.

The creation of this "NATO Plus" force will send a strong political message to the Afghan people that a caveat-free, pan-cultural, international community force is willing to establish a long-term presence in Afghanistan in support of the Karzai government.

Recommendation 2:  "Combat aid agencies":  aid should match military funding and be delivered by the military

The immediate needs of ordinary Afghans must be met.  It is clear that the present approach is not working.  FOr the AFghan state to stand even a chance of recovering from its present position, it is crucial that well-defined development efforts are a central part of the overall mission, particularly in synchronization with counterinsurgency efforts.  To this end, a "Combat CIDA/DFID" should be established, whereby Canadian and British militaries assist in the delivery of aid to ravaged parts of the south.  The military should also be given control of development agencies' war-zone budgets.  Longer-term development should focus upon the provision of essential services such as schools and hospitals, and core infrastructure including roads and power stations.  Aid and development funding should match military funding.
 
Gee, that philosophy seems familiar for some reason..........hmmmmm....
 
milnewstbay said:
To reach this number, each country contributing to ISAF should make a troop commitment that is proportionate to their overall economic capacity.

What about countries that have troop commitments elsewhere already? How would they figure how many soldiers per GDP would be contributed to Afghanistan? IMHO it doesn't make sense to set a universal standard, seeing as all countries will have different circumstances that would affect how many troops they could deploy.

The combat aid agencies sounds like a good idea if it could somehow work.....

My 0.02.
 
                                      I'm stunned!


My first impression of the Senlis council was not consistant with this!

Something new every day!    ;D
 
FWIW -- I dont believe that the Army should ride shotgun for AID -- it creates a legitmate target of the AID workers -- hence why the US DOS and USAID outsource security.  It creates an armed target but not a legitimate target under the rules of landwarfare.

 
Flip said:
My first impression of the Senlis council was not consistant with this!

Not to worry - they continue to build the case for their "make medicine outta opium from AFG solution" - looky what they published the same day (summary of report here) - interesting to see the malaria medication idea here as well:

"Poppy for Medicine projects: lost-cost, high impact economic development initiatives

Building on the June 2007 release of The Senlis Council’s Poppy for Medicine project model, this Economic Case Study provides detailed information on the economics of producing morphine in small medicine factories in Afghan communities, through Poppy for Medicine projects. Small morphine producing factories, located in Afghan district centres, would be able to inexpensively manufacture morphine for sale at prices significantly below the current retail price for morphine in many countries. With a nominal start-up cost, a small medicine factory would not only provide jobs and secure incomes for hundreds of Afghans; it would trigger economic growth and diversification in the regions within which the Poppy for Medicine projects are located.

Local medicine factories enhance security of Poppy for Medicine projects

An important security feature of the Poppy for Medicine project model is the local transformation of raw poppy materials into morphine medicines immediately after the harvest period. This Case Study is based on a model scenario in which a medicine factory has the capacity to process into morphine three metric tons of raw poppy materials - the quantity that could be produced by ten model Poppy for Medicine project communities, each with twenty small farms of less than 0.4 hectares – within the two month period following the poppy crop harvest.

Diversifying Afghanistan’s economy: extending the Poppy for Medicine project model

Under the Poppy for Medicine project model, the manufacture of morphine medicines will occupy less than a quarter of a factory’s operational time each year, leaving the factories available to add value to other agricultural products cultivated in the region throughout the rest of the year. Initial research suggests that it may be possible to extend the Poppy for Medicine project model to produce other plant-based medicines suited to the Afghan context, such as the malaria medicine Artemisinin.

Local production of affordable malaria medicines

The production of malaria medicines would be particularly suitable in the context of Poppy for Medicine projects, as the crop cycle of artemisia, the plant from which Artemisinin is extracted, is complementary to the poppy crop cycle. In addition, as with morphine, there is an extensive global need for affordable supplies of malaria medicines that Afghan medicine production projects could help to meet."

Still, it's nice to see support for "more boots needed on the ground".

Interesting how much of the MSM is focussing on "Taliban is controlling 1/2 the country" story lines vs. "we need mo' troops" story line - based on a Google News search in English, it looks like 2 or 3 to one .

BTW, the link in the original posting to the report doesn't seem to work - here is an alternative download link for the entire report (111 pg, 3.3MB .pdf).

- edited to add alternative download link for Senlis security report -
 
Flip: Our media, with their spin, have not been reporting properly the martial thrust of what the Senlis Council has been saying:
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2007/05/senlis-council-canada-in-afghanistan.html
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2007/05/afstan-senlis-council-canada-and-media.html
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2007/09/afstan-jaw-jaw.html

Mark
Ottawa
 
Flip said:
                                       I'm stunned!


My first impression of the Senlis council was not consistant with this!
They have been pretty clear for a while now that they are strong supporters of ISAF and strong Western military support.  It is one reason I find it ironic that Senlis seems to be the most often quoted source used by the anti-war movement ... well, misquoted might be the better term as the anti-war crowed never mentions that their favourite authority is supportive of the security effort.
 
milnewstbay :

Not to worry - they continue to build the case for their "make medicine outta opium from AFG solution"

maybe I'm mis reading you but whats the alternative? I don't see a feasible alternative that will make everyone happy

1) you could try to get them to grow something else but from what I understand the soil is not ideal for it, thus limiting their source of income and angering them making them potential recruits for the taliban
2) you could burn their crops of opium, thus removing their source of income and angering them making them potential recruits for the taliban
3) you could buy it from them and then destroy it, which is silly since there is a global shortage of raw material for opiate based medicince which there are several.

from what I understand we want to remove the income selling opium on the black market gives the taliban and remove the opium from the illegal drug market... wouldn't buying it directly from the farmers at a higher rate than the taliban pays, reselling it to the pharmicutical companies achieve both those goals while winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan? I fail to see a negative here.


 
MCG - Thanks, you explained my confusion perfectly. ;D
 
Bruce Monkhouse said:
Gee, that philosophy seems familiar for some reason..........hmmmmm.... 

A complete coincidence of course, all results achieved through independent study and research...
 
c_canuk said:
maybe I'm mis reading you but whats the alternative? I don't see a feasible alternative that will make everyone happy

1) you could try to get them to grow something else but from what I understand the soil is not ideal for it, thus limiting their source of income and angering them making them potential recruits for the taliban
Wrong - a US compnay Chemonix is running alternative crops that have been tailored for the climate and soil.
2) you could burn their crops of opium, thus removing their source of income and angering them making them potential recruits for the taliban
The actual farmer is usually press ganged by warlords and the Taliban to grow...
3) you could buy it from them and then destroy it, which is silly since there is a global shortage of raw material for opiate based medicince which there are several.
How do you buy it?  The Legit market pays WAY less than the illegal market.
from what I understand we want to remove the income selling opium on the black market gives the taliban and remove the opium from the illegal drug market... wouldn't buying it directly from the farmers at a higher rate than the taliban pays, reselling it to the pharmicutical companies achieve both those goals while winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan? I fail to see a negative here.
The farmer himself is not the issue.
The same way the UN has DDR'd people (Demobilize, Disarm, and Reintergrate) only to have them snatched out of schools and forcible taken back into a warlords army.  You have to deal with a multitude of issues in this respcet its not nearly as cut and dried as your or Senlis tends to portray...





 
According to an aid group testifying to Brit MP's last week, there might even be ANOTHER dynamic at play:

"If I grow onions I have to take them to the market and in doing so I may have to go through a of checkpoints. In doing so I will have to pay backsheesh to the ANP, militia or whoever it might be. By the time I get to the market I am uncompetitive at best; at worst I can suffer physical injury. It is far better to grow a crop where the trade comes to you; it arrives at your farm gate and buys from you. They inherit the transaction and transportation costs. If there is a degree of insecurity and you have to leave the house you can take with you a few kilograms of opium; you cannot carry a bag of onions."
 
MCG said:
.... I find it ironic that Senlis seems to be the most often quoted source used by the anti-war movement ... well, misquoted might be the better term as the anti-war crowed never mentions that their favourite authority is supportive of the security effort.

Maybe, "selectively quoting" .....  ;)
 
...and Ruxted weighs in.
http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/68408.0.html
 
Forgive me for asking, but Who Is the Senlis Council?

How many councilors are there? What are their names?  Where does the council meet?  Are transcripts available from the meetings?  Who pays for the coffee and donuts?

and most important of all: 

How did this shadowy organization become the Ultimate Font of Truth on Afghanistan in the eyes of CBC, Tor Star, Globe and Mail, .... ?



 
You'll find a link to them in the Ruxted Article, a link to which Bruce Monkhouse posted in the adjacent post.

The Senlis Council is, indeed, a somewhat shadowy but not silent group. They appear, to me, to have moved away from what I saw as their original intent: legalizing the marijuana trade and into the mainstream of "how to solve Afghanistan".

Although based in Europe many of their leaders are Canadians.

They have an office in Ottawa.
 
DualCore said:
Forgive me for asking, but Who Is the Senlis Council?

How many councilors are there? What are their names?  Where does the council meet?  Are transcripts available from the meetings?  Who pays for the coffee and donuts?

and most important of all: 

How did this shadowy organization become the Ultimate Font of Truth on Afghanistan in the eyes of CBC, Tor Star, Globe and Mail, .... ?

Did you break your "Google fu"?
 
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