Syria Superthread [merged]

[CougarKing]

ISIL/ISIS preparing for incoming US air strikes on Syria:

Reuters

Islamic State goes underground in Syrian stronghold
BY TOM PERRY
BEIRUT Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:01pm EDT

(Reuters) - Islamic State has gone underground in its Syrian stronghold since President Barack Obama authorized U.S. air strikes on the group in Syria, disappearing from the streets, redeploying weapons and fighters, and cutting down its media exposure.

In the city of Raqqa, 450 km (280 miles) northeast of Damascus, residents say Islamic State has been moving equipment every day since Obama signaled on Sept. 11 that air attacks on its forces could be expanded from Iraq to Syria.

Islamic State activists who typically answer questions on the Internet have been off line since then. Its leaders have not given a direct response to Obama: his speech last week was not mentioned in a video released on Saturday showing the beheading of British hostage David Haines by an Islamic State militant.

(...EDITED)

 

[Edward Campbell]

More on self delusion about IS** in this article, by Micah Zenko, the Douglas Dillon Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Mr Zenko's blog on the CFR's website:

http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2014/09/18/why-the-united-states-will-never-defeat-isis/

Why the United States Will Never Defeat ISIS

by Micah Zenko

September 18, 2014

On the eve of the Iraq War in 2003, while commanding the 101st Airborne Division, then-Maj. Gen. David Petraeus repeatedly asked Rick Atkinson the rhetorical question: “Tell me how this ends.” What began as a private joke between a military commander and an embedded journalist has become a warning for the need to define clear objectives and be cognizant of unexpected outcomes before going to war.  Last week, President Barack Obama attempted to provide clear strategic guidance for the U.S.-led war against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS or ISIL), declaring: “Our objective is clear: We will degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL.”

I published a column in Foreign Policy today that highlights two troubling elements about Obama’s declared end state.

First, other Obama administration officials have offered their own end states that confuse or contradict what the president stated just eight days ago. White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough stated on Sunday: “Success looks like an ISIL that no longer threatens our friends in the region, no longer threatens the United States. An ISIL that can’t accumulate followers, or threaten Muslims in Syria, Iran, Iraq, or otherwise.” Yesterday, Secretary of State John Kerry declared before the the Senate Foreign Relations Committee something else: “The military action ends when we have ended the capacity of ISIL to engage in broad-based terrorist activity that threatens the state of Iraq, threatens the United States, threatens the region. That’s our goal.” Today, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel told the House Armed Services Committee that “success” included “stability in the Middle East.”

Second, the United States—and any combination of partners or allies—will never “destroy” ISIS. The evidence supporting this assertion is simple: Both Presidents George W. Bush and Obama declared that the Taliban and al-Qaeda and its affiliates would be “defeated” and “destroyed.” Meanwhile, the size and lethality of these groups has increased almost everywhere that they exist. The reason that presidents make such absolutist and totally unachievable pronouncements says more about American political culture than providing realist military campaign objectives. As I wrote in my column, a courageous president would tell the American people the truth, which is:

“The United States will attempt to diminish the threat that [ISIL] poses to U.S. personnel in the region to the greatest extent possible based upon the political will and resources that the United States and countries in the region are willing to commit.”

That is a strategy of mitigating ISIS’ threats and containing its influence within Iraq and the surrounding region. Yet, while mitigation and containment will drive the U.S. counterterrorism strategy regarding ISIS as a reality, the Obama administration (and Congress and the media) will pretend that the strategic end state is to defeat and destroy them. So when you hear the White House promise to destroy ISIS, don’t believe them, but consider why it is politically mandatory that they make such an outrageous and impossible claim.

Just so we are all on the same page: we are kidding ourselves. But we do plan to contain IS**.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Obama/the USA/the US led West (which includes Israel, in my opinion) doesn't have any allies in the Gulf. Jordan is an ally in the Middle East ... and that's about it; the rest range from disinterested freeloaders to real enemies. Anyone who thinks that any Arab/Persian or West Asian state is a friend is delusional.

And KAL, in The Economist, gets it:

Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21618906-kals-cartoon

 

[CougarKing]

And the rain of Tomahawks and other precision-guided munitions begins...

US begins airstrikes over Syria

The United States launched its first wave of bombing attacks over Syria early Tuesday against an expected 20 to 25 Islamic State targets, U.S. officials said.

The operation, expected to last several hours, involved planes launched from U.S.destroyers in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Planes from five Arab countries also participated in the strikes.

The first explosions from Tomahawk missiles were heard in northern Syria. Targets were expected to include command and control centers, training camps and weapons depots.

President Obama on Sept. 10 authorized U.S. airstrikes inside Syria as part of a broad campaign to root out the Islamic State militant group also known as ISIS and ISIL.

In a nod to his plans to go into Syria, Obama said then, “I have made it clear that we will hunt down terrorists who threaten our country, wherever they are. That means I will not hesitate to take action against ISIL in Syria, as well as Iraq.”

Until now, U.S. airstrikes have been limited to specific missions in northern Iraq.

Fox News

 

[McG]

So, when do the armies of the five Arab nations engage?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29321136

 

[tomahawk6]

I am very disappointed in Turkey.This is going on along their border and they wont lift a finger against ISIS.Makes you wonder what their agenda is ?

 

[Edward Campbell]

I am very disappointed in Turkey.This is going on along their border and they wont lift a finger against ISIS.Makes you wonder what their agenda is ?

Until very recently it appeared to me that Turkey was aiming itself to 'join' Europe, but two things happened:

    1. In the middle of the last decade some European countries (most notably Cyprus, for obvious reasons, and France) began to throw up obstacles to EU membership and, I think
        that Turks saw the stalling as racism; and

    2. In 2003 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became prime minister of Turkey, and, in 2014 he became president. My sense is that then Prime Minister Erdoğan wanted to bring Turkey into the EU
        but he also wants to make Turkey a regional and Muslim power.

I believe that the two aims are in conflict; I think that both Europe and the Arabs know that one cannot be, simultaneously, an EU member and a Muslim/Middle Eastern leader. My guess is that President Erdoğan wants to try but, ultimately, knows that he has a better chance of displacing Egypt as the leader in the Middle East than of leading Turkey into Europe.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I think turkey would not refuse EU membership, but it's purely at this point a "nice to have". The focus changed to be a Regional power and go to country, hence the dropping of Israel as a quiet ally and buttering up to the other countries, all with little success. For Turkey the only success has been on the Kurdish front with much better relations reducing tensions on much of that front. I suspect Turkey suffers from to many hidden agenda's and competing power groups within.

 

[CougarKing]

Another terrorist offshoot of Al-Qaeda, called Khorasan, was also reportedly targeted in the strikes:

CNN

U.S. hits Khorasan Group in Syria, which was thought to be plotting against U.S.

(CNN) -- Among the targets of U.S. strikes across Syria early Tuesday was a collection of buildings to the west of Aleppo, some distance from ISIS strongholds.

While the United States worked with Arab partners to attack ISIS targets, the U.S. military alone took aim at the Khorasan Group, an organization formed by senior al Qaeda members based in Pakistan who traveled to Syria, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen has reported.

"Khorasan" is an ancient term for an Islamic empire.

The sites the United States struck overnight included "training camps, an explosives and munitions production facility, a communication building and command and control facilities," the military said in a statement.

Strikes target ISIS safe havens in Syria Official: Americans back from Syria Syrians cross into Turkey to flee ISIS

The group was actively plotting against a U.S. homeland target and Western targets, a senior U.S. official told CNN on Tuesday. The United States hoped to surprise the group by mixing strikes against it with strikes against ISIS targets.


(...EDITED)

 

[CougarKing]

more about the F-22's combat debut in Syria:

Defense News

Analysis: Long Road for F-22's First Combat Mission
Sep. 23, 2014 - 11:35AM  |  By AARON MEHTA

WASHINGTON — The F-22 Raptor has flown its first combat operation, a major milestone for the small air dominance fleet.

An Air Force official confirmed that the Raptor was used over Syria Monday during nighttime operations against the Islamic State (IS) and other militant groups as part of a joint force of US and Arabian Gulf region allies.

“A mix of US aircraft and aircraft from within the US Central Command area of operations conducted the strikes,” the Air Force official said in a statement. “We will not specify the exact numbers of US aircraft or the specific munitions they employed. However, the US aircraft participating in the operation included remotely piloted aircraft, F-15E, F-16, F/A-18 and F-22 fighters and B-1 bombers.

(...EDITED)

 

[tomahawk6]

Several airstike videos from last night.They were neatly togther at Jawa so it saved me time from compiling them from other sources.Enjoy  :camo:

http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/218855.php

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140923/NEWS04/309230056/Analysis-Syria-airstrikes-introduce-F-22-s-firepower-world

 

[cupper]

The Turks may be trying to walk a fine line on this one. Publicly presenting a face of neutrality or a non-commital stance. But behind the scenes, not for public consumption they may be providing more assistance. Just a thought.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Can you imagine an RCAF officer making this statement?

"We’re at that point that we need to be thinking about replacement for capabilities we have today, because 15-20 years from now the F-22 will be 30 years old,” Col. Tom Coglitore, air superiority core function team chief at Air Combat Command, told Defense News."

In a few years the basic F18/CF 18 design will be 50 years old. And there is no replacement in sight. 

 

[CougarKing]

Advances by ISIS forces in Syria continue despite a 2nd round of US-led air strikes:

Reuters

Islamic State advances on Kurdish town in Syria after U.S.-led air strikes
Reuters

By Jonny Hogg and Tom Perry | Reuters – 5 hours ago

MURSITPINAR Turkey/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Islamic State has reinforced fighters who are battling Kurdish forces for control of a Syrian town at the border with Turkey, a redeployment triggered by U.S.-led air strikes on the group elsewhere, a Kurdish military official said.

Ocalan Iso, deputy leader of the Kurdish forces defending the town of Kobani at the Turkish border, said more Islamic State fighters and tanks had arrived since the U.S.-led coalition began air strikes on the group on Tuesday.

"The number of their fighters has increased, the number of their tanks has increased since the bombardment of Raqqa," Iso told Reuters by telephone. He repeated calls for the U.S.-led coalition to expand its air strikes to Islamic State positions near Kobani, which is also known as Ayn al-Arab.

(...EDITED)

 

[CougarKing]

I am very disappointed in Turkey.This is going on along their border and they wont lift a finger against ISIS.Makes you wonder what their agenda is ?

And speaking of Turkey, despite a lack of participation in the air campaign, they may actually be sending boots on the ground in Syria and Iraq...

Turkish upgraded M48s and M60s vs ISIS-captured Abrams, anyone?

Defense News

Turkey To Broaden Possible Army Operations Against Militants in Iraq, Syria
Sep. 24, 2014 - 11:09AM  |  By BURAK EGE BEKDIL  |

ANKARA — As it faces increasing security threats from Islamic extremists in its south and southeast, the Turkish government has said it will expand parliamentary authorizations allowing the Army to conduct cross-border operations into neighboring Iraq and Syria.

“The threats and risks posed from Iraq and Syria have changed. Therefore the content of the existing [parliamentary] motions that will be renewed in October will have to be modified,” Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told a press conference Tuesday.

The Turkish parliament will debate the motions on Oct. 2, a day after the beginning of the legislative year.

Parliament currently has approved two motions authorizing Army operations: one is against the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party based in northern Iraq, and the other is against a potential Syrian offensive toward Turkey.

(...EDITED)

Turkey has called on the US to produce a comprehensive strategy that would also help topple the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[George Wallace]

Turkish upgraded M48s and M60s vs ISIS-captured Abrams, anyone?

Not a problem if ISIS have no ideas how to man and gun an Abrams.

 

[cupper]

Not a problem if ISIS have no ideas how to man and gun an Abrams.

In Syria?

 

[CougarKing]

In Syria?

You are aware that ISIS controls large swathes of both Iraq and Syria, and thus can move both men and equipment across where the Iraqi-Syria border used to be?

Btw, ISIS/ISIL reportedly has (or had) a large number of captured Abrams tanks from routed Iraqi Army armoured units. Perhaps any Abrams that survived coalition strikes in Iraq in the previous weeks might have been moved to Syria just before the air campaign was expanded to there?

Wall Street Journal

Today, we estimate that ISIS has less than a total of 30 working M1 Abrams tanks and howitzers that are either self-propelled or towed behind trucks (based on our knowledge of how the Iraqi army is equipped and what divisions were in the north). These are the weapons that gave the Islamic State the advantage over the Peshmerga in recent firefights. Yet ISIS does not have the highly trained maintenance crews that are necessary to keep these weapons in good working order. The same problem exists for its armored Humvees and Mine Resistant Ambush Protected personnel carriers. Without maintenance, these captured U.S. vehicles and weapons will break down.

(...END EXCERPT)

 

[cupper]

You are aware that ISIS controls large swathes of both Iraq and Syria, and thus can move both men and equipment across where the Iraqi-Syria border used to be?

Btw, ISIS/ISIL reportedly has (or had) a large number of captured Abrams tanks from routed Iraqi Army armoured units. Perhaps any Abrams that survived coalition strikes in Iraq in the previous weeks might have been moved to Syria just before the air campaign was expanded to there?

Wall Street Journal

I knew that they picked up huge amounts of equipment when the Iraqi Army turned tail. My surprise or skepticism is more a question of how would they be able to manage moving them undetected from Iraq to Syria. Not saying it isn't unlikely, but you would have to figure that the US would be keeping an eye on where each one was in case they did have a need to take them out at some point.

 

[George Wallace]

30 working M1 Abrams tanks and howitzers

Possessing this equipment and knowing how to operate it effectively are two different things.  Then comes the questions of having qualified 'Maintainers - mechanics, FCS technicians, wpns technicians, etc to keep them in operating condition as well as ammunition to fire.