The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[Edward Campbell]

The Liberal platform is here

On defence it says:

--------------------
6. Defence

Canada’s ongoing commitment to the military mission in Afghanistan has depleted our ability to deploy the Canadian Forces elsewhere in the world. When combined with the commitments that will be necessary in order to provide the needed security requirements when Canada welcomes the world to the Vancouver Winter Olympics in 2010, we are severely limited in our ability to offer assistance to other international efforts as they arise. By putting a firm end date on the military deployment in Kandahar, we will regain flexibility with respect to our military to respond to emergency situations both domestically and internationally.

A Liberal government will remain committed to the money allocated in the fiscal framework to the Canadian Forces (CF) over the coming four years – much of which was originally committed in the Liberal Budget of 2005. But the job of supporting Canada’s armed forces doesn’t end when our troops return home. Military life, overseas deployments, and dangerous missions take a heavy toll. Our soldiers need adequate support services when they return from overseas or leave the service. A Liberal government will support the current members of the CF and our veterans by establishing a dedicated $60-million fund to help them cope with post-traumatic stress disorder and other ailments. As previously mentioned, a Liberal government will also establish a health ombudsman both within the CF and within Veterans Affairs Canada.

The federal government must also ensure that our forces get the most value for money on military contracts. We will abandon the sole-sourcing approach to defence contracts taken by the Conservatives, ensuring that Canadian industry can compete for contracts while guaranteeing the best equipment at the best price. We will also finally act on the purchase of much needed replacements for the fixed-wing search-and-rescue (SAR) planes to replace the current ageing fleet. The previous Liberal government set aside money to make this purchase in 2005 but the Conservatives have failed to act. These SAR planes are needed both for the safety of Canadians but also to promote our sovereignty in Canada’s North. That is why we will ensure that some of the new fleet of SAR planes are based in the North.


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That's it; that's the whole thing. Pretty thin gruel, I think – they’re offering another ombudsman, some SAR aircraft and $60 Million to help members with PTSD “and other ailments.”

 

[GAP]

Another decade of darkness.....

 

[Edward Campbell]

Another decade of darkness.....

... if Canadians are dumb enough to put the Liberal's back in power.

 

[GAP]

... if Canadians are dumb enough to put the Liberal's back in power.

This time around I doubt the Liberals will get back in, but somebody in the Conservative Party had better be keeping clippings from the promises/not promises being touted.....rather than reinvent themselves, it might be prudent to point out what their plans were in 2008...

ps: that should have put paid to little to no support from the CF for Dion and company....

 

[Greymatters]

Providing better post-secondary options may be one worthwhile tact - encouraging people into skilled trades, for example.  But I'd also argue with direct governmental investment in education.  Better to provide post-graduation tax relief to students, and charge whatever the freight will bear at the front end.

A good point I would agree with.  There is an ever-increasing gap between the academic arena and the trades/unions that is only just being dealt with over the past couple of years, but has yet to be improved to the point where it can solve itself without government assistance. 

 

[Greymatters]

Canada’s ongoing commitment to the military mission in Afghanistan has depleted our ability to deploy the Canadian Forces elsewhere in the world. 

So, instead of one large inadequately supported mission, they would propose several smaller inadequately supported missions?  In other words, back to the pre-2005 status quo?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If the government is going to encourage people into the skilled trades and help finance it, on whatever level, many will feel (moreso than now) that, it will also be the government's responsibility to ensure that those occupations are viable, available to those graduates, and for the long term.

 

[Redeye]

When I was going to high school there was almost a stigma against trades - everyone was thrust toward university whether it was where they wanted to be or not - and now the country is full of university degree holders who can't really do anything or get gainful employment.  My wife graduated two years ago and has yet to find employment in the field she wants to get into and is learning quickly (and the hard way) that she probably should have gone to college instead.

Meanwhile there's massive shortages of tradespeople.

As for the customs union concept - in general terms I think that's a fantastic idea - and that's a lot of what was on the agenda at the SPP conference that the loony left were getting all up in arms about - even if there's not such a union - standardization agreements on labelling of products, safety standards, etc will go a long way to help trade and benefit everyone.  Labour mobility at least in limited terms is also important - but it exists already under NAFTA - skilled workers in a variety of fields can move across borders with relative ease.

A good point I would agree with.  There is an ever-increasing gap between the academic arena and the trades/unions that is only just being dealt with over the past couple of years, but has yet to be improved to the point where it can solve itself without government assistance. 

 

[The Bread Guy]

- In a word:  Italian.

By that yardstick, then I still consider myself productive (without thinking other western and eastern European immigrants were any less "productive")  ;D

When I was going to high school there was almost a stigma against trades - everyone was thrust toward university whether it was where they wanted to be or not - and now the country is full of university degree holders who can't really do anything or get gainful employment.  My wife graduated two years ago and has yet to find employment in the field she wants to get into and is learning quickly (and the hard way) that she probably should have gone to college instead.  Meanwhile there's massive shortages of tradespeople.

Based on my personal experience, some of this can be linked to previous-wave immigrants thinking, "my daughter/son will not be a success if s/he has to work with their hands like I do", thus crowding the more academic end of post-secondary and leaving us with the current shortage of trades? 

Does this become another indicator to assess ROI on next-wave immigrants, then?

Hmmm...

 

[Edward Campbell]

By that yardstick, then I still consider myself productive (without thinking other western and eastern European immigrants were any less "productive")  ;D

Based on my personal experience, some of this can be linked to previous-wave immigrants thinking, "my daughter/son will not be a success if s/he has to work with their hands like I do", thus crowding the more academic end of post-secondary and leaving us with the current shortage of trades? 

Does this become another indicator to assess ROI on next-wave immigrants, then?

Hmmm...

That attitude "success = not working with hands" is not confined to immigrants; it is common in some 'old countries,' too.

But I can tell you about one family of my acquaintance: Grandpa came here about 60 years ago, an educated man but he took whatever jobs - often two at a time - he could find; son (born here) went to medical school, as did one sister - the other is a lawyer; son's first son shows neither interest in nor much aptitude for higher education but Dr. X will not be unhappy if son masters a skilled trade and is both happy and financially successful. But grandpa is horrified and, in their culture, grandpa/elders must be satisfied. Grandpa may be mollified by, or may choose not to really notice the fact that grandson is going to a community college taking a mechanical/tool and die making programme.

Tool and die makers are earning $75,000+/year (i.e. top end sergeant to bottom end MWO pay scales) upon getting a licence. They can earn salaries equivalent to CWO or Maj after a very few years - fewer than it takes to make CWO. Many skilled and experienced tradesmen take home about the same salaries as many doctors - GPs in group practices, not specialists - for far fewer hours worked and with far smaller student loans.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Tool and die makers are earning $75,000+/year (i.e. top end sergeant to bottom end MWO pay scales) upon getting a licence. They can earn salaries equivalent to CWO or Maj after a very few years - fewer than it takes to make CWO. Many skilled and experienced tradesmen take home about the same salaries as many doctors - GPs in group practices, not specialists - for far fewer hours worked and with far smaller student loans.

Edward,

From experience and being very close to the heartbeat of the metal cutting trades, what you say is a very broad generalization and more the exception instead of the norm. The metal cutting trades are more oft than not feast or famine. Many will aslo have substantial collateral (that $75,000 you talk about) tied up in personal tools to make themselves viable in the workplace. The apprenticeship programs are no walk in the park either, on top of their 3-4 years full time schooling, and then constant upgrading courses. Many that are making that MWO's pay are earning it the same way, as floor leader or shop foreman, with 'essentially' the same duties as that MWO.

 

[Edward Campbell]

More polls:

--------------------
Ekos says:

TORY LEAD IS “GELLING”… BUT PLENTY TO PLAY FOR AMONG OTHER PARTIES

... the Tories, have the most committed following. That means they are less likely to “bleed” to the other parties.

As our analysis showed last week, up to this point, the Conservatives have been the single largest beneficiary of Canadians straying from the Liberal fold since the last election. They were picking up about half the Liberal strays, while the other half has been divided among the other parties.

However, if the Liberals slip any further, that could change. Only about a fifth of the remaining Liberal supporters list the Conservatives as the second choice. Most of the rest go to the NDP or the Greens.

So, solid as the Tories’ support now is, it may be tougher for them to grow than it is for the other parties.

As for the Liberals, they will find it hard to wrest votes from the Tories, who are, as mentioned above, quite committed, with less than a fifth holding the Liberals as their second choice. The Liberals might find more fertile ground to their left, where they are the second-choice for many current New Democrats and Greens. Their best hope remains becoming the most viable champion of the “anyone-but-Conservative” (ABC, as Danny Williams calls it) vote, which was important to the party in both the 2004 and 2006 elections.

The NDP, meanwhile, still have potential themselves to become that ABC champion since they are the second choice for many Liberal and Green supporters. However, they probably need to close or eliminate the gap with the Liberals before they can benefit from this kind of tactical vote.

The Greens now have two tasks. They may have some potential to continue growing, as they have done since the campaign began. But more important may be their ability to consolidate the support they already have. Thirty per cent of Green voters say they are likely or somewhat likely to change their preference before voting day – the highest of any party. And although the Greens are now neck and neck with the Conservatives for the lead among voters 25 and under, this is a notoriously hard group to turn out on election day.


NATIONAL FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BQ: 8% (NC from 19 Sep 08)
Cons: 37% (+1 “ “)
Greens: 12% (-1 “ “)
Libs: 24% (-1 “ “)
NDP: 19% (+1 “ “)

--------------------
Harris-Decima says:

Conservative Lead is 15

BQ: 7% (-1 from 19 Sep 08)
Cons: 38% (NC “ “)
Greens: 12% (NC “ “)
Libs: 23% (-2 “ “)
NDP: 17% (+2 “ “)

In Ontario, the Conservatives lead narrowed slightly. They stand at 38%, followed by the
Liberals at 32%, the NDP 16%, and the Greens 11%.

In Quebec, the BQ has slid to 30%, the Conservatives follow with 24%, the NDP at 16%, the
Liberals with 19%, and the Greens at 11%. This is the highest level of support measured for
the Greens in Quebec since the writ was dropped; their low point was 5%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have 34%, followed by the Liberals with 28%, the
NDP 26% and the Green Party with 10%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 36%, followed by the NDP with 30%, the
Greens at 20% and the Liberals at 13%.

--------------------
Nanos says:

Tories lead Liberals by 5 points, NDP up

BQ: 7% (NC from 19 Sep 08)
Cons:  35% (-4 “ “)
Greens: 6% (-1 “ “)
Libs: 30% (+2 “ “)
NDP: 22% (+4 “ “)

--------------------

Ekos and Harris-Decima are pretty close; Nanos (which was deadly accurate back in 2006 when it was SES) is rather different. Nanos sees a sharp Conservative drop and an even sharper NDP rise. Is that the effect of l’affaire Ritz? If so, how long will it last?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Thanks for some real world clarity, recceguy. I was repeating what the father told me - and I suspect he got his information from the community college recruiting bumph, becaise I cannot imagine that he knows anything more about the metal cutting trades than I.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I was surfing the channels and Mike Duffy’s talking heads are saying that the NDP are, as we reach the middle of the campaign (week 3 of 5), shifting their attack towards the Liberals.

They are, finally, reminding Canadians that Jack Layton and the NDP were the (effective) Opposition in parliament because Celine Stéphane Dion and the Liberals chickened out on (according to Mike Duffy) 43 confidence votes over the past couple of years. 43! Is that right?

Layton must have some poll numbers that tell him, either:

1. He can shake loose some Liberal votes and gain a few seats at their expense – but enough to make him Leader of the Opposition? Hmmmm; or

2. He must fight, now, to prevent strategic voting which, in past elections, has seen votes and seats go from the NDP to the Liberals.

 

[a_majoor]

The National Post has a flash of clarity:

http://russ-campbell.blogspot.com/2008/09/strong-language-from-national-post.html
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/09/22/national-post-editorial-board-message-to-campaign-leaders-grow-up.aspx

Strong language from National Post's Editorial Board to all politicians: Grow up

The National Post Editorial Board has this message to campaign leaders—"Grow up."

The Post advises:

  "This election should be about substantive issues of concern to voters -- the economy, health care, the environment, Afghanistan, taxes, crime, land claims -- not pooping puffins, thoughtless wisecracks about tainted cold cuts, drinking natives, driving while stoned, "stupid" Canadians, or (most ridiculously) why Prime Minister Stephen Harper is like Hitler. Unfortunately, many politicians (with the media's encouragement, sad to say) would prefer talking about the latter than the former."

I wish I'd said that. Their article ends with this admonishment from the Post:

    "It is still not too late to make this election mean something, to elevate the discourse from Keystone cops to key issues. But it is going to take a commitment by all the parties to stop dwelling on each others' slip-ups and start focusing on substance."

Couldn't have said it better myself. On the other hand, the MSM is not blameless in this regard. I see these episodes of mock outrage and mud-slinging repeated over and over throughout the news media, including the National Post. How often, for example, has CBC and CTV led off their newscasts with the latest outcry about some imagined, though obviously unintended, slight?

The MSM just can't leave these things alone, so they spread and spread until they overshadow serious debate.

Go here for the full story.

 

[Redeye]

That seems like a logical reasoning - I went to school with a lot of Portuguese and Italian kids in particular who were told that rather clearly by their parents when they didn't do well at school.

That said, a lot of them were able to go on to pursue trades and have done well at them.  University doesn't seem to really be a determinant of success.

By that yardstick, then I still consider myself productive (without thinking other western and eastern European immigrants were any less "productive")  ;D

Based on my personal experience, some of this can be linked to previous-wave immigrants thinking, "my daughter/son will not be a success if s/he has to work with their hands like I do", thus crowding the more academic end of post-secondary and leaving us with the current shortage of trades? 

Does this become another indicator to assess ROI on next-wave immigrants, then?

Hmmm...

 

[dapaterson]

Jack Layton is probably also hoping to ride on the Tory coat-tails.  With the Tory ads focusing on denigrating Dion's leadership ability, the NDP is trying to attract voters who agree with that message but whose loyalties lie to the left and can't stomach a Harper vote.

If the NDP can make a solid go of this it could spell significant trouble for the Liberals.  The Tory manoeuvrings to establish themselves as the centrist option has left the Liberals crowded to the left with the NDP; if the NDP can define themselves as the only viable opposition on the left the Liberals may well find themselves in Campbell Tory territory... without a Jean Charest to rebuild the party.

 

[RangerRay]

From <a href="http://stevejanke.com/archives/273961.php">Steve Janke</a>

Liberal Platform Meeting Call: Childcare low priority, gut the military, silence on the Green Shift

If you're interested, I have here an MP3 of the conference call held today by the Liberal Party with MPs and community activists to discuss today's launch of the Liberal Party platform.

There are several interesting points.  Going back to standard Liberal-style practise, the military is going to be bled dry.  Childcare spaces will be made if the Liberals find money after paying for everything else.  And the Green Shift?  Not mentioned during the main presentation.

Some interesting stuff here...

 

[Edward Campbell]

Celine Stéphane Dion still has trouble connecting with voters. Here, in an article reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, Jane Taber says, “the more voters get to know the Liberal Leader, the less they like him.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080922.welectionpoll23/BNStory/Front

Voters not warming to Dion: poll

JANE TABER

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
September 22, 2008 at 8:38 PM EDT

Stéphane Dion is not catching on among Canadians, as the more voters get to know the Liberal Leader, the less they like him, according to a new poll.

“To know him, for most Canadians, is not to like him better,” said the Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo, pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV.

But that is not the case in Quebec for New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton, whose personal popularity is increasing. Meanwhile, Quebeckers are becoming less impressed with Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, though Quebec is a province Mr. Harper needs to win on Oct. 14 to form a majority government.

The poll of the 45 ridings that had the tightest races in 2006 and subsequent by-elections in the battleground regions of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia was released Monday. It was conducted last week.


As well, voters were asked whether they were excited about voting for their local candidates of choice, a question that U.S. pollsters often ask.

The poll found that Green Party, NDP and Bloc Québécois supporters in the 45 ridings were the most excited: 30 per cent, 21 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. Less excited were the more mainstream Conservative and Liberal voters, with 13 and 8 per cent respectively.

As far as impressions in those ridings of the leaders, the poll found 61 per cent of B.C. voters had an unfavourable impression of Mr. Dion, a figure that changed to 69 per cent for Ontarians and 65 per cent in Quebec.

Compare that with NDP Leader Mr. Layton's situation: 42 per cent of Ontario voters have an unfavourable impression of him, as do 37 per cent in B.C. and 28 per cent in Quebec. Seventy-two per cent of Quebeckers have a favourable impression of him, compared with 44 per cent for Mr. Harper, 35 per cent for Mr. Dion and 55 per cent for Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe.

“He's carrying that party in Quebec,” Mr. Donolo said of Mr. Layton.

However, the NDP vote is not efficient: It is too broadly spread to translate into seats, according to the poll.

But Mr. Donolo said Mr. Layton's popularity in Quebec is creating a bit of a “Ralph Nader” effect:

“[Mr. Harper] is hoping to make big breakthroughs in Quebec. He still is a position to do that, but not because of any kind of power he is bringing. …

“To me, that would underline some of the tentativeness of the level of breakthrough right now and the fact that it is mostly being facilitated by the strengths, ironically, of the NDP.”

Mr. Harper's unfavourable impression rating in Quebec dropped to 56 per cent from 42 per cent in an earlier survey. In Ontario, 40 per cent of voters had an unfavourable impression; 44 per cent feel the same way in B.C.

Mr. Duceppe is not that popular among voters in the Quebec ridings either, as 30 per cent have a very unfavourable impression of him.

The poll tells another story for Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, especially in B.C., where she has an unfavourable rating of 34 per cent compared with 43 per cent in the earlier poll.

As for how voters in the battleground ridings would cast their votes if the federal election were held today, 39 per cent of B.C. voters would vote for the Tories, compared with 28 per cent for the Liberals, 22 per cent for the NDP and 11 per cent for the Greens.

In Ontario, 40 per cent of respondents said they would support the Tories, compared with 28 per cent for the Liberals, 20 per cent for the NDP and 12 per cent for the Greens. In Quebec, the Bloc led with 32-per-cent support. The Tories were second with 26 per cent compared with 21 per cent for the Liberals, 15 per cent for the NDP and 7 per cent for the Greens.

Of the 45 ridings, 20 are in Ontario, 15 in Quebec and 10 in B.C.

It appears that Stephen Harper is suffering from the gaffes of the first two weeks. Voters like Layton and May; that’s not surprising – they can promise “good” and “green” and “golden” without anyone, themselves included, ever believing, for even a few seconds, that either will ever lead.

Harper, in my view, needs to make himself reassuring – because I doubt Canadians are ever going to like him very much. Given that we are only a couple of days away from the mid-point of the campaign I’m guessing that Dion, himself, can do nothing to turn things about – he must pray that Harper screws everything up, massively.

The Strategic Counsel’s national numbers are very consistent with others: 39% > 28% > 22% > 11%.

The Tories are, nationally, tantilizingly close to majority territory (generally thought to require 41 or 42% in the polls). I think Harper’s hope for a majority rests on the NDP and Greens doing better and better – mostly at the expense of the Liberals - thus creating tight three or four way races from which several Conservatives can emerge as winners in unexpected ridings.

OK, all you Conservative supporters, let’s hear for Taliban Jack and Lizzie the Loony. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is a column by Margaret Wente that reinforces the media’s apparently general ‘buy in’ to Harper’s Dion is NOT a Leader campaign:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080922.wcowent23/BNStory/politics/home

Any weaker and Mr. Dion would need a transfusion

MARGARET WENTE

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
September 22, 2008 at 9:58 PM EDT

How unpopular is Stéphane Dion?

He's so unpopular that in a recent poll asking Canadians who they think would make the strongest leader, he got 9 per cent - barely beating out Elizabeth May.

The more people see of Mr. Dion, the more they want to vote for someone else. Since the campaign started, his negatives have soared. Mr. Dion is now disliked far more than Stephen Harper, who has morphed into the nation's tough-but-fair dad.

“Poor Stéphane,” says a nice little old lady I know, a lifetime Liberal. “He's hopeless, but what can you do?” She's not sure she has the heart to vote.

At the start of this campaign, Mr. Dion decided to forget about his team and go head-to-head with Harper. To hell with the Liberal brand! The Dion product was so good that it would sell itself. “I love to be the underdog,” he said. “I love to be underestimated.”

As it turns out, that would be hard. Some long-time political reporters say he is the weakest national leader they've ever seen. “Kim Campbell was a dilettante, but at least she was smart and charismatic,” says Craig Oliver, chief political correspondent for CTV. Many Liberal campaign events are drawing only 35 or 50 people. If Mr. Dion were any weaker, he'd need a blood transfusion.

The media have played up various “gaffes” by the Conservatives - tasteless jokes, pooping puffins and the like. To pump up the drama, they need to create the illusion of a horse race. But what we have here is a train wreck. It's the wreck of the Liberal Party as we know it.

“He is totally unprepared for the job of national leader of the Liberal Party,” says one veteran observer. He talks like a professor, sometimes unintelligibly. He has no sense of audience. He knows nothing about putting a campaign together, and he doesn't like to take advice. Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, his two chief lieutenants, complain that he has never made an effort to make friends with them. “Nobody I know has any real relationship with the guy,” says the observer.

This week, all that was supposed to change. “You are going to be seeing Stéphane Dion unplugged,” promised a Liberal shill. From now on, a new, improved leader would play down the Green Shift, which has proved about as palatable to the voters as boiled spinach. As Wall Street blows up and economic growth grinds to a halt, the environment has dropped off the radar of the electorate. But yesterday, when Mr. Dion unveiled his platform, the boiled spinach was still front and centre on the plate. And so was he. Still plugged. On CTV, he talked about contingency reserves and the need to decrease our greenhouse gases. “We need to discover the agriculture of proximity,” he said.

Could it get worse? Yes. Liberals are dreading next week's English-language debate, when Jack Layton and Elizabeth May are likely to remind us how bad on his feet he really is. He may well deliver a knockout blow - to himself. Mr. Dion does better in French, but it doesn't matter because the Liberal Party in Quebec has collapsed.

Mr. Dion, of course, can't be blamed for destroying the Liberal brand. It has pretty much disintegrated already. The decline of the Bloc Québécois and the fragmentation of the left are also not his fault. Mr. Harper's sober, steady and focused performance is not his fault. The ideological exhaustion of the party is not his fault. Maybe he's just the guy who happens to be driving the big red bus when it finally runs out of gas.

Inside the party, the talk is of salvaging what they can and finding a new driver. But who? Mr. Rae and Mr. Ignatieff still cordially despise each other. Some people mention Brian Tobin, and some mention Dalton McGuinty. It's so bad that some people are actually fantasizing about Justin Trudeau.

“Don't worry. Harper probably won't last longer than eight more years,” I tell my Liberal friends. But they are not consoled.

I watched parts of Dion’s circuit of the TV networks to ‘sell’ the Liberal platform; I, of course – being a highly partisan Tory, was prepared to be under-whelmed by the content but I never got that far. Dion stinks on TV; I could not bring myself to think about his words because his style (appearance and delivery) was dismaying. Wente is right – Liberals must be dreading the debates.

If he Liberals want to avoid an electoral  meltdown, I think, they must drop the gloves and go really, really negative on Harper, bring out the “team” to replace Dion on the nation’s TV screens, and promise, PROMISE, PROMISE! And to hell with fiscal responsibility.