The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[Edward Campbell]

More polls, but polls that may be starting to matter:

--------------------

Ekos offers a seat projection:

BQ:        54 (-1 from the 27 Sep 08 projection)
Cons:   152 (+ 4 “)
Greens:   0 (NC “)
Libs:     60 (-6 “)
NDP:     41 (+3 “)
Others:   1 (NC)

A note on our methodology:

This seat projection is based on the results of a recent poll conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Taking our three-day rolling sample (September 30 – October 2) of 3,192 decided voters from across Canada, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.

The latest Ekos daily tracking (of voter preference) is:

BQ: 10% (=1 from the 30 Sep 08 report)
Cons: 36% (+2 “)
Greens: 11% (+1 “)
Libs: 24% (-3 “)
NDP: 19% (NC “)

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Harris-Decima’s latest voter preference data are:

BQ: 9% (NC from the 30 Sep 08 report)
Cons: 35% (-1 “)
Greens: 13% (+2 “)
Libs: 22% (-4 “)
NDP:  20% (+2 “)

--------------------

Nanos says

BQ: 10% (NC from the 30 Sep 08 report)
Cons: 35% (-2 “)
Greens: 9% (=1 “)
Libs: 30% (+4 “)
NDP: 18% (-2 “)

--------------------

I am a little surprised that Nanos found a Liberal surge which was invisible to Ekos and Harris-Decima (in fact both saw statistically significant declines in Liberal support), but different firms poll differently – different questions and different numbers and so on – so variations are quite normal.

What we can do it track trends within each poll.


Edit: to note that this is my 4,444th post! I don't think that makes me a 'beast' or devil' but it does indicate that I spend waaaaaay too much time here!
BZ! to Mike Bobbitt for running a site where we can discuss a wide range of things in a (mostly) friendly and respectful manner.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, is a good news story from Afghanistan:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081004.wafghanvoting1004/BNStory/politics/home

Canadian soldiers turn out en masse at Afghan advance poll

BOB WEBER
The Canadian Press

October 4, 2008 at 3:00 PM EDT

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — As rifle fire echoed from the nearby practice range, soldiers lined up Saturday night at a remote operating base in Afghanistan to cast ballots in advance polling for the Oct. 14 federal election.

Despite being far from home, Canadian soldiers stationed here are taking a keen interest in the federal election. About 75 per cent of those stationed at this forward operating base voted over the course of the last week, some only hours after trading shots with Taliban insurgents.

“It's my choice,” said Bombardier Ian Scott of the 3rd Battalion of the Royal Canadian Regiment.

“I'm a soldier, but I'm also a citizen. I need to have that choice.”

All officers on the base — which can't be named for security reasons — have been nominated as deputy returning officers, said Captain Chris Reeves, who sat behind the desk located at one end of the mess tent. Elections Canada made sure the base was well stocked with ballots as well as directories to help the soldiers find their ridings and list of candidates.

“It's actually a bit of an honour,” he said.

Similar polling stations have been set up at other forward operating bases throughout Afghanistan, as well as the main base at Kandahar Airfield.

All soldiers will have the opportunity to vote, except for those few who were stationed in the field during the entire polling period. Voters simply identify their riding, look up the list of candidates and write down their selection.

The ballots will be sent in to Elections Canada in time to be counted in the election.

Capt. Reeves takes pride in running a proper polling station. Elections Canada stipulates that all parties are allowed to send scrutineers and must be provided with a chair.

“None of the political parties showed up, but if they did, I would have given them a chair,” he smiled.

The presence of the polling station has also served Canada's broader goals in Afghanistan, said Capt. Reeves. Afghans working on the base have shown plenty of curiosity about what's going on.

“One of the reasons we're here is to show Afghans how democracy works,” Capt. Reeves said. “They see what we're doing.”

Afghanistan is set to begin its own voter registration drive for elections scheduled early in the new year.

One night, a couple of American soldiers lined up to vote, thinking it was advance polling for that country's upcoming presidential election.

Most soldiers here are able to keep up with political news from home, said Master Corporal Dave Ritchie.

“They get the TV, they get updates from that,” he said.

“It's pretty much the same election we did two years ago,” he added with a smile.

Many of the soldiers were voting here for the first time, said Capt. Reeves, who said he was impressed with the turnout.

“I really did think we'd just a get a few guys.”

But those who turned up Saturday seemed determined to have their say in the election result.

“It's my duty to vote,” said Master Cpl. Ritchie. “They have to do this (set up a polling station).”

Bombardier Kevin Griffin agreed.

“We have the right to vote. It's one of those things that you have to do.”

One thing surprised me just a bit:

“All soldiers will have the opportunity to vote, except for those few who were stationed in the field during the entire polling period.”

It’s been a long, long time but I seem to recall a general election when I had a fairly small number of people scattered over a very wide area (in a only very modestly dangerous place) but I had to jump through all kinds of hoops to make sure that every single person had an opportunity to vote. I hate to think of how much it must have cost – including a ‘rental’ helicopter – but, somehow, we (one other officer and three or four senior NCOs) managed to meet up with each guy (they were all guys) and offer each his ballot. Maybe the rules were/are different then/now. Maybe I'm misreading the article.

Captain Chris Reeves, seated at left, assists a soldier at a remote forward operating base in Afghanistan cast an advance ballot on Oct. 4 for the Oct. 14 Canadian federal election. (Bob Weber/The Canadian Press)

 

[Kirkhill]

I believe that, outside of Quebec, come the day, that demotivated, divided and underfunded Liberals, whose leader has endorsed the leader of a competing party, the Greens, will not turn out in the same proportion as other parties. This will drive their voter share down and could produce a Turner sized party of 40 or less.  Turner's Party included 17 Quebecers (14 Montrealers) and those seats are no longer safe.

The Dippers will hold their 17 to 20% of national market share that has been traditional and in a divided market could get Jacko up to the levels seen by Ed Broadbent.  Something on the order of 40 seats which would see them in a run with the Liberals. I don't think that strategic voters will drift to the Liberals if they don't see any advantage in that strategy.  If the Liberals can't win even with your vote then you may as well vote your conscience and at least divert your future tax dollars to your preferred party.

The Greens are a bit of a wild card.  Some of them are disaffected Liberal voters, who their leader has let off the hook by endorsing his competition, but some of them are young anarchist types and it remains to be seen if they are voters.  No track record to read there.

That leaves Conservatives, well funded, organized and motivated with a likelihood that they will outperform the polls on election day in popular vote which, in combination with vote splitting in the other camps could result in seat gains outside of Quebec.

What remains to be seen, as ever, is how Quebec votes.  This election Quebecers will be voting with their heads and not their hearts.  They will be voting their advantage - as do many others - and it will be interesting to see how they see their advantage this time.

With the Quebecers every election is like Christmas.  You don't know what you are getting until you open the package.

I think the prospects of a Conservative majority are actually pretty good - depending on what Quebec does.

 

[GAP]

In response to the Quebec vote, journalist Belvonte (?) on Mike Duffy regularily comments on Quebec....he thinks the rural Quebec vote is pretty solid in favor of the CPC

 

[Proud_Newfoundlander]

I believe that, outside of Quebec, come the day, that demotivated, divided and underfunded Liberals, whose leader has endorsed the leader of a competing party, the Greens, will not turn out in the same proportion as other parties. This will drive their voter share down and could produce a Turner sized party of 40 or less.  Turner's Party included 17 Quebecers (14 Montrealers) and those seats are no longer safe.

The Dippers will hold their 17 to 20% of national market share that has been traditional and in a divided market could get Jacko up to the levels seen by Ed Broadbent.  Something on the order of 40 seats which would see them in a run with the Liberals. I don't think that strategic voters will drift to the Liberals if they don't see any advantage in that strategy.  If the Liberals can't win even with your vote then you may as well vote your conscience and at least divert your future tax dollars to your preferred party.

The Greens are a bit of a wild card.  Some of them are disaffected Liberal voters, who their leader has let off the hook by endorsing his competition, but some of them are young anarchist types and it remains to be seen if they are voters.  No track record to read there.

That leaves Conservatives, well funded, organized and motivated with a likelihood that they will outperform the polls on election day in popular vote which, in combination with vote splitting in the other camps could result in seat gains outside of Quebec.

What remains to be seen, as ever, is how Quebec votes.  This election Quebecers will be voting with their heads and not their hearts.   They will be voting their advantage - as do many others - and it will be interesting to see how they see their advantage this time.

With the Quebecers every election is like Christmas.  You don't know what you are getting until you open the package.

I think the prospects of a Conservative majority are actually pretty good - depending on what Quebec does.

I think the tories are going to need to do damage control in Quebec. These arts cuts and proposed prison reforms didnt go over well in Quebec. It isnt hopeless yet, they still have time to repair. The chances of a tory majority are probably around 50/50. They also did well at the beginning by remaing relatively gaffe free and expousing certainty on the economy, which went over well with canadians, now hes in sweater vests and whatnot. I dont like him or his party, but id say go back to whatever he was doing at the beginning of the campaign. Hvae issues with the east, and probably his prairies base soon enough, it really depends on what happens in central canada in the not-so-distant future.

Liberals have enginnered a recipe for disaster and if they had been in an unpopular government before they would be finished. They have more or less put their campaign on a policy most regular canadians wont endorse, and one that is easy for the tories to pick apart, with party dissent, and an unpopular leader. Look at it like this, if you cant see yourself buying steak knifes off dion, do you think youd really buy a tax shift ? It has gone over especially bad with rural people. The party is also coming off as stale, somewhat arrogant, lacking new ideas, and an inability to get them across. The party has tried new ads attacking haroers history witrh the reform party, which seem to have had a bit of an effect, and they may try it further. They also have a very strong party brand. People are also afraid of a tory majority, and will blink and vote liberal.

NDP are doing rather well, but have slipped away from the uniting ed broadbent behaviour and gone to the socialist-urbanite way somewhat. Frankly, i have to say layton hasnt done bad, hes done almost everything right (except for what ive mentioned). i think he should focus his time on faultering liberal/tory/bloc seats.

Green party leader ms.may has come as articulate and knowledgable (on some issues) and did well in the debates. her party vote rate however is flat. This means that if theyre support in a aprticular region is like 12% then thats proably what the riding results will be with them. Thjey arent concentrated enough to win many, if any seats. They have to rely on "star" candidates like nagy, carr, and maybe may, but I wouldnt hold my breath on her winning in central nova. In addition, the party suffers from alientation issues with eatserners, prairies residents, and rural people in general.

 

[Rifleman62]

Socialism Is Never Having To Say You're Responsible

 

[ModlrMike]

Much is being made in the media about the arts cuts and prison reform vis-a-vis Quebec. When I dig deeper, it seems that they are a factor solely in Montreal, and that rural Quebec is not the least bit concerned. Rural Quebec is where the Torries currently have their seats, so it may not make a great deal of difference on the day.

 

[geo]

I expect a Liberal leadership review sometime soon......

 

[Slim]

I expect a Liberal leadership review sometime soon......

...And they might think about a POLICY review along with it.

Times are changing in Canada it seems that the average Canadian has found a voice and won't be hoodwinked by scare tactics and cry that gun control will change the world. the Libs and their policies are (as they currently exist) a thing of the past for the next few years...Or so I hope. :cdnsalute:

Gotta love the Punjabi language an Official language of Canada! I wonder if they're going to Make 'Canadian' an official language of the Punjab?

 

[Hollywog]

Much is being made in the media about the arts cuts and prison reform vis-a-vis Quebec. When I dig deeper, it seems that they are a factor solely in Montreal, and that rural Quebec is not the least bit concerned. Rural Quebec is where the Torries currently have their seats, so it may not make a great deal of difference on the day.

Lets see would you rather have body fluid hurling tax subsidized artists who can't sell anything at a mall or,... more doctors? I think is the fundamental question.

I'd rather more doctors or tanks.  If they produced art Canadians liked they wouldn't need tax dollars People would buy what they are selling. 

Anyone remember paying for dead rabbits to be strung up in Winnipeg?  Do we need to waste tax dollars on that? 

Or to subsidize porn I mean if porn needs a handout well is it porn that is really worthy of tax dollars?  Arg,

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080529/ypf_film_080529/20080529?hub=TopStories&s_name=

 

[Infanteer]

Gotta love the Punjabi language an Official language of Canada! I wonder if they're going to Make 'Canadian' an official language of the Punjab?

English is one of India's official languages.

 

[Slim]

English is one of India's official languages.

You took my point litterally...Not what I was getting at. >

 

[Edward Campbell]

...And they might think about a POLICY review along with it.

Times are changing in Canada it seems that the average Canadian has found a voice and won't be hoodwinked by scare tactics and cry that gun control will change the world. the Libs and their policies are (as they currently exist) a thing of the past for the next few years...Or so I hope. :cdnsalute:

Gotta love the Punjabi language an Official language of Canada! I wonder if they're going to Make 'Canadian' an official language of the Punjab?

The last Great Liberal Policy Review was the Kingston Conference in 1960. There were others, in Halifax in 1985 and in Alymer QC (a suburb of Ottawa) in 1991, but none had the impact of the Kingston Conference which moved the Liberal Party of Canada sharply to the left on social issues.

Nothing in the Halifax or Alymer conferences challenged the orthodoxy of Kingston in 1960. This is, probably, because, starting with the 1933 policy conference, the Liberals only confer when they have just suffered a severe electoral defeat and the aim is to find the part back to power.

I think the Liberals will be smart – they usually are – and, assuming the Conservatives and the NDP both gain at the Liberals’ expense, they will elect a new leader. If they are really smart they will postpone a serious policy conference until sometime after 2012 (assuming a Conservative majority).

If there is another Conservative minority then anew leader and a better packaged message may be all they need. If there is a Conservative majority, however, then the Liberals should want to watch and see how Canadians react to a new political regime – which is something we haven’t really had since 1948. (The Conservative interregna of 1957-63 and 1980-88 were not marked by anything like a radical reform of much of anything. Diefenbaker was sui generis – a prairie populist with some, until we got to know him, massive popular appeal. Brian Mulroney was, de facto a Liberal who ‘took the blue’ for convenience – because the route to the top for an Anglo-Québecer was blocked in the Liberal Party.) When the Liberals can see how Canadians react to a Harper regime, which I suspect will not be Liberal in its outlook, they can then tailor their policies to absorb whatever Canadian like about Harper’s Conservatives’ policies and combine them with an appeal to other, more popular areas.

The Kingston conference was held shortly, but not immediately after the Liberals finished a 20 year stretch in office. They needed renewal – even though Louis St Laurent had broken with many, many of King’s policies, more, perhaps, that the breaks Trudeau made with Pearson's policies or that Mulroney made with Trudeau's – and they took their time (seven years) before they got their new policies on track.

 

[RangerRay]

Anyone else find the NDP's ad rather ironic?

In one line they say something in the order of "Harper giving great gobs of cash to corporations".

Then at the end, Layton says the NDP will do something in the order of "giving incentives to companies to stay in Canada".

Is this not the same thing?  The only thing that I can think would be different would be the NDP would be targeting their "incentives" at heavily unionised, old inefficient industries (auto manufacturing, lumber, etc.) that are threatening to shut down.

Another note on the NDP...

Why they are not hammering the Liberals is beyond me.  People who may be thinking of voting Conservative will not vote NDP at this time.  Layton should be trying to keep his supporters from fleeing to the Liberals.  He can do this by not demonising Harper and the Tories, and by saying why the NDP is a better choice than the Liberals to oppose the Conservatives.  IMHO, Layton's attacks on the Tories will only help the Liberals.

 

[Slim]

Why they are not hammering the Liberals is beyond me. 

No threat from the Libs as they are not ahead probably

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

DND will be callled the Department of Peace

Ms. May, you are one wonderful wack-job...... :rofl:

I guess the interview is from last week but I only saw a few minutes last night and when she said that I thought Peter Mansbridge's head was going to swivel off.

 

[Old Sweat]

According to Newsmet the NDP has unveiled a new ad campaign aimed at the Liberals. (I saw a clip of one of the ads and it certainly goes after Dion, not Harper.) The aim is clearly to paint the Grits as bumbling, indecisive and unable or unwilling to stand up to the Conservatives. Ergo, the real opposition is Jack Layton and his band of caring social warriors. To my mind, the real aim of the ads is to deter wavering voters who are scared of the prospect of a Tory majority from casting strategic ballots, which is an euphenism for voting Liberal. This, of course, might move Layton into Storoway, and will put the Liberals in an even more precarious financial position for the next few years.

 

[Blindspot]

Liberal supporters find car brakes vandalized
Updated: Sun Oct. 05 2008 1:41:53 PM

Article Link

Vandals attacked a midtown Toronto neighbourhood this weekend, cutting off phone and cable lines, spray-painting property and cutting brake lines on a number of vehicles.

Although there were reports the vandalism appeared to be linked to Liberal party supporters, Staff Sgt. Glenn Gray refused to confirm a motive behind the attacks, telling CTV.ca it was too early in the investigation to comment.

However, Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett, who represents the St. Paul's riding where the vandalism occurred, posted a note on her blog condemning the "life-threatening" acts.

"I was sickened to hear today about several acts of vandalism involving cutting the brake lines on the cars of Liberal supporters in my riding," she wrote on Saturday. "This dangerous threat to our democracy must stop."

About 13 homes were hit overnight on Friday. Gray said police did not receive any reports of vandalism Saturday night. All the homes were in an area between Yonge Street and Bayview Avenue, Merton Street and Eglinton Avenue East.

Bennett said all of the homes that were hit had lawn signs showing their support for the candidate. She also said that several cars had the letter "L" scratched on them, and that her campaign's official agent was one of the people who had property vandalized.

"(He) went through a stop sign and nearly hit a bus because he did not know that his brake lines had been cut," she said in the blog.

She called on her supporters to be vigilant and to carry a camera to photograph anyone suspicious in their area. However, she also acknowledged the possible danger of putting a Liberal sign on a front lawn in plain site to vandals.

"We of course understand if supporters choose to take down their signs...But we would very much like to catch the people doing these vile acts," she said. "We cannot give into these people who are putting the lives of engaged citizens at risk."

In a news release published Sunday, she said if the attacks can't be stopped, she would work with her supporters to remove the lawn signs and ask other candidates to do the same.

Bennett said she spent Saturday phoning her supporters to warn them of the attacks.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion also condemned the incident, saying in the news release that "there is no place for these types of dangerous and reckless intimidation tactics in our democracy."

Police will step up their nightly patrol in the area, said authorities.

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Things appear to be getting strange(r) in Toronto. I can only see two logical explanations for these tactics and one implausible. This is a tightly contested race between Liberals and NDP. CPC won't even be a factor. With that said, it is either a) a Liberal hoax, engineered to garner sympathy or b) NDP attacks. For me 'a' is sounding about the most tangible explanation.

 

[GAP]

Conservatives fear N.L. wipeout in federal election
Updated Sun. Oct. 5 2008 10:22 AM ET The Canadian Press
Article Link

ST. JOHN'S, N.L. -- A Conservative radio ad in Newfoundland provides an insight into the party's fear of being shut out from the province after the federal election.

"We're facing big issues this election, but none bigger than whether we're going to take up our role in the next federal government," says Craig Westcott, a Tory candidate in St. John's East.

"Voting ABC will hurt Ottawa, but it will hurt Newfoundland even more. Isolating ourselves from Canada is not an option."

Premier Danny Williams and his so-called Anything But Conservative campaign have gnawed away at the party's foundation in the province. The co-chairman of the Conservative campaign in Newfoundland recently blamed the premier's offensive for the party's struggles in fundraising and recruiting volunteers.

There has been growing debate on radio call-in shows on the impact of a "big goose egg," as Williams has characterized it, if the Conservatives win the Oct. 14 election but the province elects only opposition MPs.

Williams has argued that even with federal government representation, the province has been short-changed, so he is calling on Newfoundlanders to "stand together" and oust the Conservatives.

It is rare for a province not to elect any governing members. In seven federal elections since 1984, only two provinces have done it -- Prince Edward Island in 1988 and 2006, and Nova Scotia in 1997.

Jeff MacLeod, a political studies professor at Mount Saint Vincent University in Halifax, said the lack of government representation in Ottawa can have consequences for a province, such as delays in funding projects.

"It does contribute in general to a sense of political isolation," MacLeod said.

"Dialogue doesn't take place. You can see relationships not working and that can influence the bureaucracy and you can lose out on programs and various initiatives as a result. People are human."

Nova Scotians rejected the Liberals in 1997 because they felt Ottawa had neglected their interests, MacLeod said.

"Nova Scotians were annoyed, and that's putting it mildly," he said, in what could also describe a sentiment widely felt in Newfoundland and Labrador.
More on link

 

[JBG]

Gotta love the Punjabi language an Official language of Canada! I wonder if they're going to Make 'Canadian' an official language of the Punjab?

I wanted to take "Canadian" as my foreign language in college, to get language credit. They couldn't find an instructor.