The US Presidency 2019

[dimsum]

Go look at that 'tweet' I attached to my earlier post: the people who voted for Trump and will vote for him or his surrogate again, in 2020 and in 2024 and beyond, don't care about the data because it doesn't address their issues, their feelings.

I agree, and it seems ironic that if one was to dive into the cesspool of social media comments, the "right" commonly bash the "left" about only going on feelings, not facts.

 

[Infanteer]

I'm looking forward to my pension soon, and yet I had a visit this week from an old school buddy who works construction out on Vancouver Island, and his concern is IF he will be able to save enough to walk someday.  How can I know what he is feeling every freakin' day?

So, we're talking defined benefits plans and the certainty they bring.  That's a bit different than understanding how the exchange rate will affect the unemployment rate in Canada.

Historical data is a sweet wonderful thing for historians and not very accurate for predicting the future.

Is it?  Care to back that assertion up with anything?

So, are you saying that, based on your historical data, our businesses could take a 27% hit right now?

How is a change in exchange rate = a 27% hit?

What I am saying is that Canada's unemployment rate has been fine in the past when the dollar was on par or worth more than the US dollar.  This was the case in 2007 when the Canadian dollar was on par and the unemployment rate was 6%.  When you dig into the data, you find that this was also the case in 1988, when the unemployment rate was just below 8% and the Canadian dollar was 25 cents up on the US dollar, in 1973 when the unemployment rate was below 6% (like it is now) and the Canadian dollar was worth the same as the US Dollar, or in 1962, when the lowest rate of Canadian unemployment was measured (2.9%) and the Canadian dollar was 6-8 cents more than the U.S. dollar.

All that is to say is that the link between Canadian unemployment rates and USD-CAD exchange rates are not intertwined in some sort of causal relationship.  There is some correlation between what they represent due to the size of the export market the US economy represents for us, but there are a host of other factors as well.  A simple scan of historical data demonstrates this, and I'm willing to bet more money on that than I am on your hunch based on your construction worker buddy's fear of a lack of a pension.

 

[Infanteer]

I don't think the data, however optimistic, matters to the precariat, who, I suspect, are the core of President Trump's supporters.

There is also the fact that the "precariat" aren't focused on the economic questions right now - hot economy or not, they probably grinding out some lower-level job with no benefits anyways.  Immigration and migration, social policy, and race relations seem to be issues that are prevalent in the news cycles and that the Trump administration is using buttress "The Base" against "The Elites" in the swamp.  I suspect the "precariat" sees these as bigger threats to America.  Here is an interesting take on things.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

How is a change in exchange rate = a 27% hit?

Because right now when Hammond Manufacturing makes a transformer to sell in the US they are paying their employee's 74 cents in the currency they are selling into.  Factor in our higher electricity, heating, taxes, and then make that a dollar for a dollar and it's tumbleweeds.....
I can't put up links with the intranet I'm using, but a quick search of "how does a low Canadian dollar effect manufacturing" pretty much confirmed that train of thought from several media outlets.

 

[Infanteer]

Right, but (1) Hammond Manufacturing is not the sole representative of Canada's export economy and (2) while price increase due to currency conversion can reduce the demand for products, it is not the only determinant of demand.  Americans will still by Canadian goods if the cost rises.  How much is another question worth exploring.  But I bet it is not "tumbleweeds" for the Canadian economy.

 

[Edward Campbell]

There is also the fact that the "precariat" aren't focused on the economic questions right now - hot economy or not, they probably grinding out some lower-level job with no benefits anyways.  Immigration and migration, social policy, and race relations seem to be issues that are prevalent in the news cycles and that the Trump administration is using buttress "The Base" against "The Elites" in the swamp.  I suspect the "precariat" sees these as bigger threats to America.  Here is an interesting take on things.

Thanks for that link. It's well worth a read. The key take-away is Professor Stanley's contention that fascists (and, almost certainly Trump supporters, too) think that the corruption that matters is that of "purity" and of "the traditional order." The precariat, which some observers think may account for up to 40% of the non-professional labour force, of the 'working class' and 'lower middle class,' in other words, and the traditional order both got swept aside in the 1990s and 2000s by the latest wave of globalization.

President Trump heard and understood their angst and promised to do something about it; that's why he's POTUS and Hillary Clinton is a historical footnote.

 

[mariomike]

The key take-away is Professor Stanley's contention that fascists (and, almost certainly Trump supporters, too) think that the corruption that matters is that of "purity" and of "the traditional order." The precariat, which some observers think may account for up to 40% of the non-professional labour force, of the 'working class' and 'lower middle class,' in other words, and the traditional order both got swept aside in the 1990s and 2000s by the latest wave of globalization.

In spite of the fact the Republicans have lost the popular vote in every presidential election, except one, since the 1980's, it seems quite possible they will get back in,

QUOTE

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians/others, and "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/demographic-shifts-show-2020-presidential-race-could-be-close-n868146

END QUOTE

 

[FJAG]

Thanks for that link. It's well worth a read. The key take-away is Professor Stanley's contention that fascists (and, almost certainly Trump supporters, too) think that the corruption that matters is that of "purity" and of "the traditional order." The precariat, which some observers think may account for up to 40% of the non-professional labour force, of the 'working class' and 'lower middle class,' in other words, and the traditional order both got swept aside in the 1990s and 2000s by the latest wave of globalization.

President Trump heard and understood their angst and promised to do something about it; that's why he's POTUS and Hillary Clinton is a historical footnote.

But doesn't that fly in the face of Dr Standing's definition of the precariat as set out in his article https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/a-new-class-canada-neglects-the-precariat-at-its-peril/article24944758/ where he defines it to be a new class of:

the growing mass of Canadians who are in precarious work, precarious housing and hold precarious citizenship: the perpetual part-timers, the minimum-wagers, the temporary foreign workers, the grey-market domestics paid in cash, the young Canadians who will never have secure employment, the techno-impoverished whose piecemeal work has no office and no end, the seniors who struggle with dwindling benefits, the indigenous people who are kept outside, the single mothers without support, the cash labourers who have no savings, the generation for whom a pension and a retirement is neither available nor desired.

By my reckoning (and the reading of a few Dickensian novels) this underclass is not new but has been a with us for centuries if not time immemorial.

I take it from the Beinart article that Infanteer cites that the foundation of Trump support comes from are those who are angered by the "corruption in the sense of the usurpation of the traditional order." which in effect is one of a social order based on gender and tradition (i.e. religious) and racial class lines. While there is undoubtedly a partial overlap of the precariat and the Beinart groups, I think it is the Beinart group that fuels the core of Trump's support. The precariat itself strikes me much more as a group that ought to gravitate to socialism.

:subbies:

 

[Edward Campbell]

FJAG: I think you're right about the precariat having been with us almost forever, but I recommend Stephen Harper's new book, 'Right Here, Right Now,' in which he posits that this, recent, eruption of precariat outrage is the result of them being able to identify a source of their problems ... now I think they have acquired the wrong target, but it doesn't matter what I think (or what Stephen Harper thinks, either), they have decided that the liberal world order that has been around for 75ish years is to blame and they have the bit between their teeth.

(Parenthetically, see also Niall Ferguson's thesis that the early 21st century is not like the 1930s or any other modern age ... rather it is like the early Reformation era when the printing press was new; the spread and flow of 'information' is unprecedented; that's why the precariat can identify their villain.)

I also think this generation of the precariat is larger, and, especially, proportionately larger here in North America and in Western Europe, than in the past and that makes a huge difference ... please imagine President Trump saying huge ... yuge or something.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
I take it from the Beinart article that Infanteer cites that the foundation of Trump support comes from are those who are angered by the "corruption in the sense of the usurpation of the traditional order." which in effect is one of a social order based on gender and tradition (i.e. religious) and racial class lines. While there is undoubtedly a partial overlap of the precariat and the Beinart groups, I think it is the Beinart group that fuels the core of Trump's support. The precariat itself strikes me much more as a group that ought to gravitate to socialism.

:subbies:

That's why I recommend the Stephen Harper book: he thinks there is a huge overlap, if they are not one in the same. His prescription is that a principled (classical liberal) conservative party must reach out to the precariat (he doesn't use that term) with new programmes, policies and promises ~ he thinks that the problem is much bigger than just jobs ... it goes to that dignity deficit thing which is about social structures, law and order and jobs. He wants to keep globalization and free trade and so on but he says that we need to fix the precariat concurrently with repairing the damage the Trump Party is doing to the world order.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I find it kind of hilarious how people believe the multi millions of people who voted for Trump are all a bunch of red neck neanderthals. We sit across our border looking down our nose at the POTUS that won, as fair and square as possible.

So much smarter aren't we Canadians. Countless hours spent cursing his very existence, all his failed policies, his tweets his spelling mistakes, his grammar, his actions and mannerisms. So much smarter than the millions of people that voted for him. Nobody says anything about being one of the only Presidents to be keeping all of his election promises.

So smart, as a matter of fact, that it's all about Trump.

Where is all the research and angst for our own situation. Our PM is turning our country inside out, people on the verge of poverty, others already destitute. Jobs disappearing, stagnant economy, trade agreements in shambles. We are in a total chaos as trudeau gives our country away. Where are all those, smarter than any American, Canadians? Lots of time to slam a foreign power and head of state, but none to talk about the ruination of their own country. Perhaps it's that loyalty to trudeau that allows them to throw rocks over the fence with an air of hypocracy that can only be smelled by those not enthralled with him.

Yep, a real smart bunch.

Perhaps they feel if they make Trump the devil incarnate, it'll make trudeau somewhat palatable while their heads are in the sand. Canadians that talk down to Americans are not as smart as they think they are. I'm sure there are plenty amongst those millions of Americans, that are professionals in their fields, that could shred every amateur opinion on this thread.


Trump 2020.

 

[FJAG]

Okay. Hands up everybody who didn't see this coming.

Trump attacks McChrystal after retired general called Trump immoral
By Caroline Kelly

In one of his first tweets of the new year, President Donald Trump attacked retired four-star Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal after he criticized the President on Sunday.

"'General' McChrystal got fired like a dog by Obama," Trump tweeted Tuesday morning. "Last assignment a total bust. Known for big, dumb mouth. Hillary lover!"

Trump was retweeting a post from Fox News' Laura Ingraham sharing a story headlined "Media Didn't Like McChrystal Until He Started Bashing Trump."

The commander in chief's name-calling comes after McChrystal said during an interview Sunday that Trump was dishonest and immoral.

"I don't think he tells the truth," McChrystal told ABC's Martha Raddatz on "This Week." When asked if he thought Trump was immoral, McChrystal responded, "I think he is."

. . .

See rest of article here: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/01/politics/trump-tweet-mcchrystal/index.html

:stirpot:

 

[Remius]

Mitt Romney’s op ed in the Washington Post is making the rounds today.  Could there be a challenge from within the GOP?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitt-romney-the-president-shapes-the-public-character-of-the-nation-trumps-character-falls-short/2019/01/01/37a3c8c2-0d1a-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?utm_term=.1e3a486d5b3f

 

[Rifleman62]

An earlier post stated the $0.73 Cdn dollar. That's not how currency exchange works.

Right now the Cdn dollar is $0.73256. To purchase one USD is $1.36527. Currency exchange through the TD Bank is $1.4005 (which charges a commission to do the exchange). If you or a business are exchange large amounts the commission rate goes down.

The point is it is costing at least $0.37 Cdn extra to buy one USD, not the $0.27 it appears to be.

 

[Infanteer]

I find it kind of hilarious how people believe the multi millions of people who voted for Trump are all a bunch of red neck neanderthals.

There were five posts by Edward Campbell, four by myself, and one by FJAG.  Nowhere did anyone say "red neck neanderthals," or insinuate the same, so I'm not sure why you are bringing this up.  Rather, the discussion was on the value perception of voters supporting leaders with platforms like the current President.

Where is all the research and angst for our own situation.

Why don't you start a thread about the Liberal Party of Canada and its base in the politics thread then?  I'm sure you'll get some informed responses to satiate your curiosity.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

At last, some in-depth geo-political analysis, rooted in a deep understanding of history:

Trump’s bizarre history lesson on the Soviet Union, Russia and Afghanistan

By Aaron Blake
January 2 at 5:08 PM

President Trump said a lot of strange, untrue things after Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting. But the most bizarre snippet might have been his “history” lesson on the Soviet Union.

Trump, who has assured us he is the foremost expert on many topics for which he has no formal education or training, gave his own version of why the USSR collapsed. And to be clear, it is his own version.

Here’s what he said:

“Russia used to be the Soviet Union. Afghanistan made it Russia, because they went bankrupt fighting in Afghanistan. Russia. … The reason Russia was in Afghanistan was because terrorists were going into Russia. They were right to be there. The problem is, it was a tough fight. And literally they went bankrupt; they went into being called Russia again, as opposed to the Soviet Union. You know, a lot of these places you’re reading about now are no longer part of Russia, because of Afghanistan.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/02/trumps-bizarre-history-lesson-soviet-union-russia-afghanistan/?utm_term=.e22b734fa5a4

 

[Fishbone Jones]

There were five posts by Edward Campbell, four by myself, and one by FJAG.  Nowhere did anyone say "red neck neanderthals," or insinuate the same, so I'm not sure why you are bringing this up.  Rather, the discussion was on the value perception of voters supporting leaders with platforms like the current President.

Why don't you start a thread about the Liberal Party of Canada and its base in the politics thread then?  I'm sure you'll get some informed responses to satiate your curiosity.

You don't get to rewrite your binned post to me, to remove your contravention of the rules, and expect an answer. That a bit over the top, even for you. As I stated in my earlier response to you.There was no mention made of members, threads or forums. It was a general statement of some Canadians attitudes.

As far as who is discussing what, no rule says we have to maintain a continuity of flow about an element of discussion. Tangents, opinions on other subjects can be started at any time. As are many of the one liners that have a tendency to appear from individuals.

I'm way ahead of you on a separate thread. Just tring to decide how I want to describe our PM and his trusty bunch of supporters.

 

[BeyondTheNow]

I'm way ahead of you on a separate thread. Just tring to decide how I want to describe our PM and his trusty bunch of supporters.

I’m trusting all is solved then.

Everyone carry on with discussion without the needless bickering and accusation-throwing, or leave the discussion. It’s that simple.

Staff

 

[Remius]

Regardless of anyone’s political leanings, The POTUS is about to have a rougher ride starting tomorrow.

 

[brihard]

Regardless of anyone’s political leanings, The POTUS is about to have a rougher ride starting tomorrow.

He sure is. Are we taking bets on whether he can get legislation passed to implement the USMCA trade deal?