Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

[Privateer]

“Any foreign military act against Libya will expose all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea to danger and civilian and military facilities will become targets of Libya’s counter-attack,” it said in a statement carried on Libyan television and the official news agency, JANA, Reuters reported. “The Mediterranean basin will face danger not just in the short-term, but also in the long-term.”

Stay safe, CHARLOTTETOWN.

 

[MarkOttawa]

France, UK and US for--main western victors of WW II; Russia, China, Germany, India and Brazil abstained.  Rather a last gasp of the old world order and lord knows where it will all end.  I expect bombs within a very short time and probably special forces on the ground.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=37800&Cr=libya&Cr1=
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/libya-united-nations-air-strikes-live

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Edward Campbell]

France, UK and US for--main western victors of WW II; Russia, China, Germany, India and Brazil abstained.  Rather a last gasp of the old world order and lord knows where it will all end.  I expect bombs within a very short time and probably special forces on the ground.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=37800&Cr=libya&Cr1=
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/libya-united-nations-air-strikes-live

Mark
Ottawa

Russia, China, Germany and India were all MAJOR combatants in World War II - for China the war began in 1937, maybe 1931, if you count Manchuria as Chinese.

 

[MarkOttawa]

"western victors"

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Edward Campbell]

"western victors"

Mark
Ottawa

Yes, fair enough, but the others hardly "abstained." India, like Canada, was a whole helluva lot more important than France.

 

[Haletown]

word is leaking that Canada will contribute 6 x CF-18's to the no fly effort.

Would be nice to have F-35's right now  . . . .

 

[PPCLI Guy]

word is leaking that Canada will contribute 6 x CF-18's to the no fly effort.

Would be nice to have F-35's right now  . . . .

Why exactly?  What possible use is 5th generation stealth technology in imposing a no fly zone, given the state of Libya's AD and its Air Force?

 

[MikeL]

New article posted up recently confirming the deployment of 6x CF18s.
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110317/cf-libya-canada/

 

[Haletown]

Why exactly?  What possible use is 5th generation stealth technology in imposing a no fly zone, given the state of Libya's AD and its Air Force?

Please tell us what the state of the Libyan Air Force and Air Defense is . . . 

 

[Old Sweat]

Having kicked around the military plans and operations side in NDHQ, albeit a bunch of years ago, I would bet that "we" have a very good idea of the capability of the Libyan air defences.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Please tell us what the state of the Libyan Air Force and Air Defense is . . .

I assumed that you knew something I didn't, and that is why you recommended the F-35 as the aircraft of choice.

 

[The Bread Guy]

More on CF-18's:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/canadian-jets-to-help-enforce-no-fly-zone-over-libya/article1945738/singlepage/#articlecontent

Stay safe, all.

 

[Infanteer]

Considering how merde things were going for the Rebel forces on the ground, it seems like this is an effort to bolster them with a Kosovo effect "Don't worry, we'll come!"

 

[George Wallace]

Please tell us what the state of the Libyan Air Force and Air Defense is . . .

Time sensitive info as there have been defections to Malta in the last few days:


Five less aircraft:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/libya-wikileaks/8294662/LIBYAN-AIR-FORCE-JET-CRASHES-AT-AIRSHOW.html

LIBYAN AIR FORCE JET CRASHES AT AIRSHOW


Friday 18 March 2011

Passed to the Telegraph by WikiLeaks 9:32PM GMT 31 Jan 2011
Ref ID: 09TRIPOLI812

Date: 10/8/2009 16:29

Origin: Embassy Tripoli

Classification: CONFIDENTIAL

Destination: 09TRIPOLI805

Header: VZCZCXRO5653PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROVDE RUEHTRO #0812 2811629ZNY CCCCC ZZHP 081629Z OCT 09FM AMEMBASSY TRIPOLITO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5354INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVERUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0846RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1175RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0090RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 0626RUEHVT/AMEMBASSY VALLETTA PRIORITY 0457RUEHPG/AMEMBASSY PRAGUE PRIORITY 0001RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DCRUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DCRUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 5901

Tags: PGOV,LY,ECON,EINV,EPET,PREL,MCAP


C O N F I D E N T I A L TRIPOLI 000812 SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS TO NEA/MAG; ENERGY FOR GINA ERICKSON; COMMERCE FOR NATE MASON E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/8/2019 TAGS: PGOV, LY, ECON, EINV, EPET, PREL, MCAP SUBJECT: LIBYAN AIR FORCE JET CRASHES AT AIRSHOW REF: TRIPOLI 805 CLASSIFIED BY: Yael Lempert, A/DCM, U.S. Embassy Tripoli, U.S. Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)

1.(C) On October 7, a Libyan MiG-23 fighter jet crashed during a demonstration flight at the third annual Libyan Aviation Expo (LAVEX). According to a British businessman attending the expo at Mitiga Airbase (a Libyan military facility, and former U.S. airbase), the aircraft was performing its maneuvers and then suddenly plunged to the ground. It was flying so low to the ground that the two pilots had no time to eject. The cause of the crash is unknown but, according to our contacts, the jet was "very old." Some believe it may simply have run out of fuel. After the crash, which occurred in the late morning, all other demonstration flights were cancelled.

2.(C) The aircraft crashed into a residential area about two kilometers from observation platforms at LAVEX. The official Libyan press agency reported that three people on the ground were wounded. Highlighting the lack of credibility that governmental news sources have with normal Libyans, rumors are circulating throughout Tripoli that the government is not reporting the true casualities, and that actually, between one to twelve Libyans were killed. A military protocol official told us that the jet hit a house that was under construction, wounding three workers. A cellphone video of the crash scene posted on YouTube, shows a mass of people gathered around a mass of rubble with no apparent emergency personnel on site.

3.(C) Comment: At the expo, Libya's aging air force - which is only slowly recovering from years of unreliable maintenance and lack of spare-parts when Libya was under international sanctions - was on full display. The crash of the jet tragically highlighted the weaknesses of Libya's military airfleet. Despite Libya's obvious need to procure new planes internationally, our contacts report that many high-level foreign delegations to LAVEX, including the Chief of Staff of the French Air Force, were unable to secure meetings with senior Libyan officials, presumably since during the expo, most of the government was summoned to the southern oasis town of Sebha for festivities marking the 50th anniversary of the Free Officer Movement (reftel). This is yet another demonstration of how business in Libya is subject to the whims of its unpredictable leader. POLASCHIKJA

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=133940091

Libya Air Force Jets In Malta, Pilots Seek Asylum

by The Associated Press

VALLETTA, Malta February 21, 2011, 12:49 pm ET Two Libyan air force jets landed in Malta on Monday and their pilots asked for political asylum amid a bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters in Libya, a military source said.

The two Mirage jets landed at Malta International Airport shortly after two civilian helicopters landed carrying seven people who said they were French. A military source familiar with the situation said the passengers had left in such a hurry that only one had a passport.

The source, who insisted he not be identified further, said the jet pilots — both Libyan air force colonels — had communicated from the air that they wanted political asylum. They had left from a base near Tripoli and had flown low over Libyan airspace to avoid detection, the source said.

The aircraft remained at Malta's airport, away from the commercial area, while the pilots and helicopter passengers were being questioned by airport immigration officials, the source said.

After a week of protests, anti-government unrest spread Monday to the capital Tripoli with clashes in Tripoli's main square for the first time. European governments and oil and gas companies were evacuating their citizens.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/af-modernization.htm

Libyan Air Force ModernizationOver half of Libya's combat aircraft were thought to be in storage following the chronic shortage of spare parts for Soviet-era equipment, which in any event was rapidly becoming obsolete. In July 2007 Libya concluded a deal with Alenia Aermacchi to overhaul SF-260OWL primary trainers in service with the Libyan air force. In late 2006, a deal was concluded with the French concern Astrac for the upgrading of Mirage F1 fighter aircraft.

Much of the Soviet-era equipment needed to be replaced including MiG-21 and MiG-23 fighters. In 2004, Rosoboronexport made deliveries of military equipment to 59 countries and procured armaments for UN purposes. Russia successfully expanded its cooperation with such countries as Venezuela, Morocco, Libya and Algeria in the recent years. A Russian delegation participated in the first international conference/exhibition in Libya entitled "Airport - New Technology" which took place in Tripoli on May 14-19, 2005.

On 10 December 2007 Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi started a five-day official visit to France. French media said his visit will focus on arms supplies, in particular the purchase of Rafale fighters, manufactured by France's largest aircraft maker Dassault Aviation. Paris also intended to help Libya in building a nuclear reactor. Gaddafi's visit to Paris, his first in the past 30 years, ran December 10-15. He met twice with French President Nicolas Sarkozy - on December 10 and 12 at the Elysee Palace.

In arms sales to Tripoli, Russia has encountered tough competition with Western nations since the UN lifted sanctions against Libya in 2003, after Qaddafi announced he would halt the national nuclear weapons program and later accepted responsibility for the 1998 terrorist bombing over Lockerbie in Scotland, agreeing to pay compensation to the victims' families. France is anxious to sell Tripoli 18 Rafale fighter aircraft worth 2.5 billion euros (about $4 billion).

Libya's fighter aviation - Soviet-era MiG-21 and MiG-23 jets - have outlived their usefulness. However, no contracts for the delivery of Russian-made state-of-the-art air defense systems and combat aircraft to Libya should be expected in the foreseeable future. Business daily Vedomosti said 16 April 2008 that Russia wanted to sell 12 Su-35 Flanker multirole fighters and Tor-M2E short-range missile systems to Libya, and offer spare parts and maintenance services for Soviet-era military hardware. An aircraft industry source quoted by the daily confirmed the deal was almost ready, but said the majority of contracts could only be initialed in Libya as the two countries had failed to reach an agreement on the African state's Soviet-era debt, which Russia earlier put at about $3.5 billion.

Russia wrote off Libya's US$4.5 billion Soviet-era debt in exchange for "multibillion dollar" contracts in a move that could potentially ease the way towards the signing of a series of defence export accords. The announcement - reported by Russian state information service RIA Novosti on 17 April 2008 - coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Libya and followed the 14 April 2008 announcement that the two countries were discussing military contracts valued at a total of USD2.5 billion. Jane's reported that the list of materiel included "several squadrons" of Russian anti-aircraft missile system, the S-300 PMU2 Favorit; about 20 Tor-M1 and Buk-M1-2 anti-aircraft missile systems; two aircraft squadrons - one Mikoyan MiG-29 SMT and one Sukhoi Su-30MK - and several dozen Mil Mi-17, Mi-35 and Kamov Ka-52 helicopters.

By 2010 the Libyan Air Force had at least 25 MiG-21 and 125 MiG-23 fighter jets, a number of Su-22 and Su-24 attack aircraft, combat helicopters and military transport planes. Libya had expressed an interest in MiG-35 [multirole fighter], Su-35 [multirole fighter], advanced attack helicopters, and air defense systems. Russia was expecting to resume traditional contacts with Libya in sales of military aircraft] in the near future. Russia had signed and had started the implementation of a contract with Libya on the overhaul of Su-24 attack aircraft in service with the Libyan air force.

Russia’s military industrial complex could lose up to $4 billion once the international community introduces sanctions against Libya and weapons supply to the country becomes unlawful. Libya is one of the most considerable buyers of Russia’s weapons in North Africa and the Middle East. The already-signed arms deals between Moscow and Tripoli amount to $2 billion, while deals for another $1.8 billion are in the final stage of readiness. In January 2010 the two sides agreed on supply of Russia’s small arms, six operational trainers Yak-130 and some armored vehicles for total of $US 1.3 billion. Russia's Irkut Corporation aimed to deliver the first three of six Yak-130 advanced jet trainers on order to Libya by the end of 2010. The remaining aircraft would be delivered at the beginning of 2011. Tripoli has an option for additional aircraft. The contract was signed at the beginning of 2009.

Libya has been supposed to become the first country to get Su-35 fighter jets, the contract to buy 15 jets for $800 million is fully accorded and ready to be signed. Tripoli also expressed interest in buying 10 Ka-52 Alligator assault helicopters, two advanced long range S—300PMU2 Favorit air defense missile system and about 40 short range Panzir C1 air defense complexes for a total over $1 billion.

 

[The Bread Guy]

What Italy could bring to the table (original in Italian here, clunky Google English translation (below) here):

Italy and 'ready to provide air bases and to help implement the' no fly zone 'authorized by the UN: and' what is learned from qualified sources, which state that are already 'been planned several options that will now be assessed with other international partners.  The Defence Minister, Ignazio La Russa, has always said that Italy intends to have''a leading role''and reiterated tonight that''there will deduct our duties'': This means, first, the provision of air bases no longer 'merely for purpose' of humanitarian need, as already 'is the beginning of the crisis to Sigonella, but also for genuine military purposes.  As many experts agree, the implementation of a no-fly zone on Libya should start with an attack,''in the sense - says the former Air Force Chief of Staff Leonardo Tricarico - the need to neutralize enemy air defense means, in other words' destroying radar and missile sites.  Us this ability ', so-called SEAD, that' 'suppression of enemy air defenses,' we have it and it 'consists of the Tornado fighter: we did in Kosovo together with the Germans and after three days no more flying' an airplane Serbian .''

Of course, and 'soon to say whether Italy will put' actually available to these air assets, possibly together with the F-16 and Eurofighter, suitable for patrolling and surveillance, as well as airplanes AV8, of which he 'equipped the aircraft carrier Cavour .  One thing that is taken for granted and, indeed, the provision of air bases, especially those of south-central, and for the redeployment of aircraft to other countries for logistical assistance.  AWACS radar planes, for instance, could be located in Trapani, which 'specifically equipped for this type of aircraft, but foundations are eligible to host hunting everything from Grazzanise at Gioia del Colle.  Could be used in case of need ', or even in Lampedusa or Pantelleria.  There 'then another capacity' fundamental, still remembers the General Tricarico,''which has to do with intelligence and which 'has Italy: this is the Cosmo-SkyMed satellite constellation and that' fully operational and has a performance superior to any other existing system. Thanks to these satellites you can 'have a photographic representation applicant with very high definition, the best there is in circulation today.''  For the same purpose can also be used unmanned aircraft (drones) 'Predator', which have a large degree of autonomy and could be driven from their base at Amendola, in Puglia.

 

[Haletown]

I assumed that you knew something I didn't, and that is why you recommended the F-35 as the aircraft of choice.

nope . .  I thought you knew

I just think having modern kit is better for our young men & women who are the pointy end of our stick.  It is much more than stealth . . .  the integrated sensor suite and comm/nav systems alone make it a better choice.  A modern aircraft has a better chance of getting the job done and getting the person in it back safely.

Getting the soldier/airman/sailor home alive is a good thing.


Doesn't really matter what our enemies are equipped with. 

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

nope . .  I thought you knew

I just think having modern kit is better for our young men & women who are the pointy end of our stick.  It is much more than stealth . . .  the integrated sensor suite and comm/nav systems alone make it a better choice.  A modern aircraft has a better chance of getting the job done and getting the person in it back safely.

Getting the soldier/airman/sailor home alive is a good thing.


Doesn't really matter what our enemies are equipped with.

CF-18s are more than a match for a third world, poorly maintained, air force. 

I'd imagine quick work will be made of Gadhafi's air force and his air defense network, once thats complete, let the bombing begin.  I really don't think the West is going to let Gadhafi recover, their is just too much at stake.  Rest assured we will be bombing his ground forces into oblivion before long.

 

[The Bread Guy]

CF-18s are more than a match for a third world, poorly maintained, air force. 

Doesn't really matter what our enemies are equipped with. 

At the risk of sounding like an old fart, let's remember this (like any mission) is not a zero-risk mission.  I'll be happy to see anyone who might deploy return safe and sound, but it's not over until its over - and it hasn't even begun yet.  Wouldn't want to jinx it, would one? 

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

touche salesman  ;D

 

[PPCLI Guy]

nope . .  I thought you knew

I just think having modern kit is better for our young men & women who are the pointy end of our stick.  It is much more than stealth . . .  the integrated sensor suite and comm/nav systems alone make it a better choice.  A modern aircraft has a better chance of getting the job done and getting the person in it back safely.

Getting the soldier/airman/sailor home alive is a good thing.


Doesn't really matter what our enemies are equipped with.

That sounds good in here, but will actually be detrimental to getting ANY new equipment.  As much as we might like to agree that "only the best" is the only morally defensible position, it is not shared by the majority of our employers (ie the taxpayer) who, rather sensibly, tries to balance out the competing demands for the coin of the realm.