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Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

MGen (Ret’d) Lewis MacKenzie joins the debate in this column, reproduced, without further comment, under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Lewis+Mackenzie+What+objective+Libya/4500221/story.html
What is our objective in Libya?

BY LEWIS MACKENZIE, THE OTTAWA CITIZEN

MARCH 25, 2011

In virtually all the military learning institutions around the world, students from corporals to generals are taught and retaught the 10 principles of war. I won’t bore the reader by listing numbers two to 10, inclusive, because No. 1, Selection and Maintenance of the Aim, is more important than all the rest. It means, in layman’s terms, before going to war decide what your overall objective is and stick to it.

Regrettably, the UN Security Council’s Resolution 1973 authorizing international military action against the forces of Colonel Gadhafi in Libya failed to precisely pin down the political and, by default, the military’s objective, thereby leaving this critical decision to individual nations enforcing the resolution. At this stage there are still a number of vastly different interpretations of what the resolution was attempting to achieve. Some, particularly in the Arab camp, suggest the objective is to freeze the military situation on the ground so diplomacy led by the Arab League and the African Union can proceed. Others have limited their opinion to a more literal interpretation of the resolution and say the role of the no-fly zone should be to protect civilians and population centres, presumably, while the war rages on away from the cities and towns. A more aggressive interpretation sees the aim as defeating Gadhafi’s military, something well beyond the intent of the resolution. All of the above have been suggested at various times during the past week because the resolution, in order to be passed, is intentionally broad and vague and, to date, no nation has taken the lead and convinced the other participants, including Canada, to agree to a common aim.

In the absence of coherent political direction, a dangerous escalation has been called for by the rebels. Based on their recent pronouncements it appears they consider the coalition air forces currently enforcing the no-fly zone to be their air force and they have new roles for it. Temporarily advancing south of Benghazi a few weeks ago against little and in many cases no opposition, the rebels now have their sights set on Libya’s capital and Gadhafi’s support base, Tripoli, some 1000 kilometres to the west. This they claim they can do with coalition air support “clearing” Gadhafi’s forces before them during their advance. The concept has been mentioned by at least one coalition member, France.

The idea of a successful rebel advance to Tripoli is beyond comprehension with or without coalition air support. Allied support for such folly should be rejected and the sooner the better before the rebels are led down the garden path by our silence on the matter.

The rebels are undisciplined, unco-ordinated and ill-equipped. They are also naive, thanks to their early success against limited opposition, and have no comprehension of the unique and demanding requirements of offensive operations. Defending built-up-areas (civilian population centres) is relatively straightforward. A few well placed, untrained marksmen can hold up an advancing column of infantry and tanks which the rebels themselves demonstrated during Gadhafi’s assaults on Benghazi. Possessed of a common hatred of Gadhafi and unquestionable bravery, the rebels can mount a determined defence. Unfortunately for them, offensive operations are out of their league even with the help of foreign military advisers infiltrating across the Egyptian border to give them a hand.

To describe a ridiculous but possible scenario to reinforce the slippery slope awaiting any decision to become the rebel’s air force, imagine the rebels advancing toward Tripoli with allied air support and having to fight their way through Ajdabiyah, a town currently held by Gadhafi’s forces 150 km south of Benghazi. As a result of the rebel’s offensive would not the ensuing battle that they initiated threaten the civilian population of Ajdabiyah? That being the case would not paragraph 4 of UN Resolution 1973, which states in part, “take all necessary measures to protect civilians and populated areas under threat of attack,” require the coalition air forces to bomb the rebels? Perhaps not such a ridiculous scenario after all, considering the rebels are now asking for air strikes to help them retake the town of Ajdabiyah.

Absent well-defined political leadership for the implementation of UN Resolution 1973, we now have a number of coalition military actions that arguably go beyond the letter and the intent of the resolution and seem to be more in support of regime change than protecting civilian population centres. If that is the case, the Security Council should meet and sanction the current military actions in Libya in support of Resolution 1973 and clearly state the removal of Colonel Gadhafi as the mission’s objective.

In the meantime, a ground invasion force led and dominated by Arab countries should be organized to deal with the inevitable, near-term stalemate.

Retired general Lewis MacKenzie served on nine UN peacekeeping missions and commanded two of them.

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen
 
First time I have seen crew dressed in what I guess is fire retardant gear:

HMS Westminster has been making a vital contribution to Operation Ellamy - the joint operation against the Gaddafi regime in Libya.

Her sophisticated surveillance technology means the Type 23 frigate can make a significant contribution to monitoring the situation along the Libyan coast, where most of the population centres lie.

The ship is also playing an important role in deterring the Libyan navy from attacking civilian targets. Earlier in the crisis Libyan gunboats had shelled a number of the coastal towns.

HMS Westminster is working alongside HMS Cumberland and the nuclear submarine HMS Triumph.

http://www.bfbs.com/news/worldwide/hms-westminster-keeps-libyan-navy-bay-45796.html




 
Kadafi regime could fall from within, U.S. officials say
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fg-libya-gates-20110327,0,2457042.story

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton say they have received hints that those close to Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi may be ready to abandon him..........


Pro-Gadhafi forces resume attacks on Libyan rebels
TUNIS— Reuters
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/pro-gadhafi-forces-resume-attacks-on-libyan-rebels/article1958725/
Eight people were killed when forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi resumed attacks on rebel-held Misrata on Sunday, ending a brief lull in fighting following Western air strikes, rebels and a resident said.

Pro-Gadhafi forces had eased their attacks on Misrata on Saturday after Western coalition planes appeared in the skies and hit some of their positions, rebels said.

A rebel said fighting between pro-Gadhafi forces and rebels had raged all day Sunday before stopping in the evening...........


Rebels push west as air strikes hit Gaddafi forces
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/Rebels+push+west+strikes+Gaddafi+forces/4511584/story.html

Angus MacSwan, Reuters · Mar. 27, 2011

BIN JAWAD, Libya - Libyan rebels pushed further west on Sunday to retake more territory abandoned by Muammar Gaddafi’s retreating forces, which have been weakened by Western air strikes.

Emboldened by the capture of the strategic town of Ajdabiyah with the help of foreign warplanes on Saturday, the rebels have reversed military losses in their five-week insurgency and are now back in control of all the main oil terminals in the eastern half of the sprawling, North African Arab country.

Rebels said they now had their sights on the Gaddafi stronghold of Sirte in central Libya.

A convoy of 20 military vehicles including truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns was seen leaving Sirte on Sunday and heading west towards Tripoli, along with dozens of civilian cars carrying families and stuffed with personal belongings, a Reuters reporter in the vicinity reported.
 
NATO now running the whole show - this from the SecGen:
NATO Allies have decided to take on the whole military operation in Libya under the United Nations Security Council Resolution. Our goal is to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under threat of attack from the Gaddafi regime. NATO will implement all aspects of the UN Resolution. Nothing more, nothing less.

This is a very significant step, which proves NATO's capability to take decisive action.

In the past week, we have put together a complete package of operations in support of the United Nations Resolution by sea and by air. We are already enforcing the arms embargo and the No Fly Zone, and with today's decision we are going beyond. We will be acting in close coordination with our international and regional partners to protect the people of Libya.

We have directed NATO's top operational Commander to begin executing this operation with immediate effect.
 
As rebels regain the road to Tripoli, residents regroup
GRAEME SMITH
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/as-rebels-regain-the-road-to-tripoli-residents-regroup/article1959120/

Somewhere among the charred pieces of Libyan tanks, amid the crippled rocket launchers and broken vehicles in the wake of the rebels’ rapid sweep toward Tripoli in recent days, a son recognized his father’s car.

Fragments of the old Peugeot lay scattered near the road. So little remained of Adam Mufta al-Tarhuni’s brother and father that he did not bother with a formal burial. Like most other residents of coastal towns now emerging from days of brutal occupation by the forces of Moammar Gadhafi, the 40-year-old blames the dictator for his misery.

“Gadhafi forces shot them with an RPG,” he said. “They were not armed.”

When informed that a rocket-propelled grenade could not have inflicted such damage on his father’s vehicle, Mr. al-Tarhuni threw up his hands: “Maybe it was a tank.”

Rebels seized more than 200 kilometres of the strategic road to Tripoli over the weekend, advancing behind air strikes by foreign jets, leaving several hundred thousand people – from Ajdabiya, Brega, Agheila, Ras Lanuf, and smaller towns – straggling home and trying to make sense of what happened.

Their telephones don’t work, and their friends have scattered after fleeing Col. Gadhafi’s attacks,............


This next one is two days old in most media outlets, but is a good first hand account of what went on
in that Tripoli hotel.

http://www.channel4.com/news/libya-a-womans-cry-for-help-in-tripoli-hotel

Ordinarily, you might hope, that when a distressed young woman bursts into a public place claiming to have been repeatedly gang-raped at gunpoint, that she would be gently comforted, calmed down and her horrifying account of what had happened taken seriously.

But this is Gaddafi's Libya, and today I witnessed the shocking brutality of his regime and how it deals with those who dare dissent.

Eman al-Obeidi, who I’d judge to be in her mid-30s, burst into the dining room of the Tripoli hotel in which foreign journalists have been held under virtual house-arrest for the past two weeks.

She made her dramatic entrance as everyone was having breakfast. She started screaming: "Look what Gaddafi's militiamen have done to me" – and everyone in the room just froze.

We saw a government minder draw a gun from inside his jacket as waiting staff, suddenly showing their true colours, tried to silence her and get her out.......


Turkey offers to broker Libya ceasefire as rebels advance on Sirte
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/27/libya-turkey-mediators-prime-minister

The Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signalled that Turkey is ready to act as a mediator to broker an early ceasefire in Libya, as he warned that a drawn-out conflict risked turning the country into a "second Iraq" or "another Afghanistan" with devastating repercussions both for Libya and the Nato states leading the intervention.

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian, Erdogan said that talks were still under way with Muammar Gaddafi's government and the Transitional National Council. He also revealed that Turkey is about to take over the running of the rebel-held Benghazi harbour and airport to facilitate humanitarian aid, in agreement with Nato........


 
There is an argument for American/Western intervention in Libya and Fareed Zakaria makes it in this column, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from Time:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2058094,00.html
The Libyan Conundrum

By FAREED ZAKARIA

Thursday, Mar. 10, 2011

If there is one lesson for U.S. foreign policy from the past 10 years, it is surely that military intervention can seem simple but is in fact a complex affair with the potential for unintended consequences. So I'm glad that the Obama Administration is studying all options on Libya. It is more important to arrive at a smart policy than to start shooting first and ask questions later.

Those who argue that we have no national-security interests in Libya are correct in the narrow sense. But the Libyan case represents a much larger issue. The Arab world is experiencing a genuine awakening. People in the region have lost faith in the old order. Whether they can actually overthrow the government, as they did in Egypt and Tunisia, or merely demand real reform, as in Jordan and the Gulf states, they are searching for a new political identity.

For the U.S., this presents a powerful opportunity. For decades, Arabs have regarded Washington as the enemy because it has been the principal supporter of the old order — creating a bizarre series of alliances in which the world's leading democracy has been yoked to the most reactionary forces on the planet. It has also produced a real national-security problem: the rise of Islamic terrorism. Al Qaeda's first argument against the U.S. is that it supports the tyrannies of the Arab world as they oppress their people.

Now the U.S. has the opportunity to break the dysfunctional dynamic that produces anti-American hatred and violence. The Obama Administration has properly aligned itself with the hopes and aspirations of the Arab people, and it has called for governments in the region to engage in serious reform. But right now all these efforts have been sidelined. Libya is burning. Its people rose, and the tyrant gunned them down. Unless something changes, Muammar Gaddafi and his sons will be able to reassert control over the country amid a mass slaughter of its civilians.

This would be a terrible outcome. President Obama has made it unambiguously clear that he wants Gaddafi to step down. The U.S. is actively seeking his ouster. To have him survive would be a humiliation for Washington at a moment and in a region where its words still have great impact. It would also send a disastrous signal to the other rulers of the region — in Syria, Algeria, Iran — that Mubarak made a mistake and that the way to stay in office is to engage in mass slaughter, scare the U.S. away and wait out the sanctions and isolation. America would lose its opportunity to align with the rising forces of the Arab world.

So the U.S. must follow through in its efforts to get Gaddafi out of office, pushing all diplomatic levers and seeking maximum multilateral support. It should ask the Libyan opposition for a public set of requests, so that Washington is seen as responding to Libyans, not imposing its will. If the Libyans request military assistance, Washington should move in that direction. I don't believe that a no-fly zone is a magic bullet. It is a high-profile policy that puts the U.S. military directly into the conflict but would actually make little difference. Gaddafi's main advantage is not in the air but on the ground. He has tanks, armored vehicles and massive firepower. The basic military question is hence how to shift the balance of power away from him and toward the rebels.

Over the past five decades, the U.S. has had very mixed results when it has intervened, by air or land, in other people's wars. But it has done pretty well when it has helped one side of the struggle. Arming rebels in Afghanistan, Central America and Africa has proved to be a relatively low-cost policy with high rates of success. Giving arms, food, logistical help, intelligence and other such tools to the Libyan opposition would boost its strength and give it staying power.

Once Gaddafi realizes that he is up against an endless supply of arms and ammunition, he will surely recalibrate his decisions. There have been reports that he floated the idea of leaving office as long as he is guaranteed safe passage. At a weak moment, he made a plea that he be treated like Britain's Queen or the King of Thailand, a figurehead with no powers.

Some worry that if we arm the rebels, things might turn out the way they did in Afghanistan, where the freedom fighters became Islamic jihadists and turned their sights on us. But that's not really what happened. After the Soviet defeat, the U.S. abandoned Afghanistan, leaving it open to Islamic jihadists backed by the Pakistani military. The better analogy is to Chechnya, where as the civil war continued, the rebels became more radical and Islamic fundamentalists jumped into the fight and soon became its leaders. The best way to prevent al-Qaeda from turning Libya into an area of strength would be to have the fighting end — with Gaddafi's defeat. So let's help the Libyan opposition do it.

This is a cogent, reasoned case for US intervention – it is in America’s interests to do this. It is in Canada’s interests to be seen to be helping the US, quickly and without being asked. It is all about self interest.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
There is an argument for American/Western intervention in Libya and Fareed Zakaria makes it in this column, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from Time:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2058094,00.html
This is a cogent, reasoned case for US intervention – it is in America’s interests to do this. It is in Canada’s interests to be seen to be helping the US, quickly and without being asked. It is all about self interest.

More importantly, it is in the US interest to support, not to lead, this effort.  A key distinction lost on some.
 
shared in accordance with provisions of the Copyright Act

The Interim Transitional National Council
website:( http://ntclibya.org/english/ )

The council refers to the state as the Libyan Republic

Aims and objectives of the national council

The "Declaration of the founding of the Transitional National Council" states the main aims of the council are as follows:
- Ensure the safety of the national territory and citizens
- Coordination of national efforts to liberate the rest of the Libya
- Support the efforts of local councils to work for the restoration of normal civilian life
- Supervise of the Military Council to ensure the achievement of the new doctrine of the Libyan People's Army in the
  defense of the people and protect the borders of Libya 
- Facilitate the election of a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for the country; be put to a popular referendum
- Form a transitional government to pave the holding of free elections
- Guide the conduct of foreign policy, and the regulation of relations with other countries and international and regional
  organizations, and the representation of the Libyan people
 
Here's a story for the Tin Foil hat types in the Crowd....


Reason for war? Gaddafi wanted to nationalise oil
25.03.2011

The Libyan leader proposed the nationalisation of U.S. oil companies, as well as those of UK, Germany, Spain, Norway, Canada and Italy in 2009.

On January 25, 2009, Muammar Al Gaddafi announced that his country was studying the nationalisation of foreign companies due to lower oil prices.

"The oil-exporting countries should opt for nationalisation because of the rapid fall in oil prices. We must put the issue on the table and discuss it seriously," said Gaddafi.

"Oil should be owned by the State at this time, so we could better control prices by the increase or decrease in production," said the Libyan leader.

These statements have worried the main foreign companies operating in Libya: Anglo-Dutch Shell, British Petroleum, U.S. ExxonMobil, Hess Corp., Marathon Oil, Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips, the Spanish Repsol, Germany's Wintershall, Austria's OMV , Norway's Statoil, Eni and Canada's Petro Canada.

In 2008, the Libyan state oil company, National Oil, prepared a report on the subject in which officials suggested modifying the production-sharing agreements with foreign companies in order to increase state revenues.

As a result of these contract changes, Libya gained 5.4 billion dollars in oil revenues.

On February 16, 2009, Gaddafi took a step further and called on Libyans to back his proposal to dismantle the government and to distribute the oil wealth directly to the 5 million inhabitants of the country.


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However, his plan to deliver oil revenues directly to the Libyan people met opposition by senior officials who could lose their jobs due to a parallel plan by Gaddafi to rid the state of corruption.

Some officials, including Prime Minister Al-Baghdadi, Ali Al-Mahmoudi and Farhat Omar Bin Guida, of the Central Bank, told Gaddafi that the measure could harm the country's economy in the long term due to "capital flight."

"Do not be afraid to directly redistribute the oil money and create fairer governance structures that respond to people's interests," Gaddafi said in a Popular Committee.

The Popular Committees are the backbone of Libya. Through them citizens are represented at the district level.

"The Administration has failed and the state's economy has failed. Enough is enough. The solution is for the Libyan people to directly receive oil revenues and decide what to do with them," Gaddafi said in a speech broadcast on state television. To this end, the Libyan leader urged a radical reform of government bureaucracy.

Despite this, senior Libyan government officials voted to delay Gaddafi's plans. Only 64 ministers from a total of 468 Popular Committee members voted for the measure. There were 251 who saw the measures as positive, but chose to delay their implementation.

Given the rejection of the Committee, Gaddafi affirmed before a public meeting: "My dream during all these years was to give the power and wealth directly to the people."

So...another big LIE falls by the wayside, the false image of Ghaddafi the dictator who robs from his people.

So far we have had pictures of pro-Ghaddafi demonstrations being portrayed as being against him. The professional, foreign and Photoshop nature of anti-Ghaddafi posters being bandied about were noted, along with signs being held upside down by people not knowing the alphabet placed on the signs.

We have had pictures of one sided battles where heavily armed terrorists are "fighting" with nobody. We have had reports, glaringly false, that Ghaddafi was fleeing the country.

We have had more than enough reports of bombings against his own people that never happened, as well as attacks against "unarmed civilians" that proved to be incorrect. It is patently obvious that there are no "unarmed civilians" involved in these actions against Ghaddafi, but CIA and other intelligence service mercenaries, foreign elements and Al Qaeda.

It has been brought to light that the living standard in Libya is the highest in Africa and that Libya was to be commended for its human rights record.

How many lies do we have to catch them in before somebody in charge buys a clue? It's no sale!

They try to portray Ghaddafi as crazy when he speaks of fighting Al Qaeda and now they have to admit it's true.

Two documents strongly back Gaddafi on this issue, according to the findings of Alexander Cockburn.

"The first is a secret cable to the State Department from the US embassy in Tripoli in 2008, part of the WikiLeaks trove, entitled, "Extremism in Eastern Libya," which revealed that this area is rife with anti-American, pro-jihad sentiment.

The second document, or rather set of documents, are the so-called Sinjar Records, captured al-Qaeda documents that fell into American hands in 2007. They were duly analysed by the Combating Terrorism Center at the US Military Academy at West Point. Al-Qaeda is a bureaucratic outfit and the records contain precise details on personnel, including those who came to Iraq to fight American and coalition forces and, when necessary, commit suicide.

The West Point analysts' statistical study of the al-Qaeda personnel records concludes that one country provided "far more" foreign fighters in per capita terms than any other: namely, Libya."

So who is the crazy one? Obviously that gang of lunatics savagely launching attacks on Libya based on the worst collection of lies in the history of the world. If you want to know where they are headed, just look at their track record, littered with genocide, theft and destruction.

More and more evidence is surfacing that this entire operation has been planned from outside (read U.S. and EU) for quite some time. First surround (Egypt and Tunisia), then invade. Wesley Clarke revealed the laundry list which included Libya.

In the U.S., there is a particulary motley group of interventionist war mongers who don't know what they're doing: Susan Rice, Hillary Clinton and Samantha Power, obviously sexually frustrated and repressed man hating lesbians who want to prove they are he-men.

We are also seeing attacks on residential areas, many civilians being killed. There have been attacks on Ghaddafi's living area, a clear attempt at assassination. Today intelligence also reports they plan a ground invasion. The fascists of the west never change. The term "humanitarian bombing" reminds of George Orwell doublespeak.

One can only heartily agree on Gaddafi's statement: They are "a group of crazy fascists that will end in the garbage dump of history."

History will surely judge them on the same page as Adolph Hitler.

 http://english.pravda.ru//hotspots/crimes/25-03-2011/117336-reason_for_war_oil-0/
 
Wow, Godwin's law.  Anyway, I hate to go all "ad hominem", but....consider the source:

PRAVDA

I can only say this:


Это не правильно!
 
            Allied Message directed to Libyan ships in araibic and english
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Zi6J7GbHA&feature=player_embedded
 
425 Squadron hits ammo depot
The Canadian Press
29 March 2011
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20110329/canadian-jets-hit-ammunition-depot-in-libya-110329/

OTTAWA — Canadian CF-18s have flattened another ammunition depot in Libya.

And Canada's military has co-ordinated other coalition air raids over Libya involving up to 20 warplanes.

The military confirms that the fighter jets hit a reinforced bunker, 92 kilometres south of the battered city of Misrata, with 225-kilogram, laser-guided bombs.

It was the second ammunition dump taken out by the Canadian air contingent in a week.

Four Hornet jetfighters from 425 Squadron out of Bagotville, Quebec took part in the Sunday raid. ......


Libyan rebels push toward Gaddafi’s home town
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/libyan-rebels-push-toward-sirte-gaddafi-sends-reinforcements/2011/03/28/AFedisoB_story.html?hpid=z2
RAS LANUF, Libya — Libyan rebels came under heavy fire as they pushed toward Moammar Gaddafi’s home town on the Mediterranean coast Monday, setting up a potentially crucial battle in the six-week-old uprising.........


U.S. deploys low-flying attack planes in Libya
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-deploys-low-flying-attack-planes-in-libya/2011/03/26/AF9grPqB_story.html?hpid=z2

The U.S. military dramatically stepped up its assault on Libyan government ground forces over the weekend, launching its first missions with AC-130 flying gunships and A-10 attack aircraft designed to strike enemy ground troops and supply convoys.............


Libyan rebels stopped short of Surt
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-fighting-20110329,0,1882268.story
Despite nine days of allied airstrikes, Moammar Kadafi's forces are putting up a stiff fight against opposition fighters east of Surt, Kadafi's birthplace.....


Fierce fighting roils city 'liberated' by Kadafi troops
In the Libyan city of Misurata, scenes of intense warfare greet foreign journalists arriving from Tripoli. Government officials hastily hustle the visitors out amid gunfire attributed to opposition supporters.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-misurata-20110329,0,1802951.story

Reporting from Misurata, Libya—
Government loyalists tried to show Monday that they had wrested control of the last major rebel-held enclave in western Libya, but a visit only underscored that ferocious fighting continued in the city.

It also showed how deeply Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi's forces were embedded within the heart of Misurata and how difficult it would be to dislodge them without risking civilian lives.

Libyan officials hustled international journalists onto a pair of buses Monday afternoon in Tripoli for a trip to what government spokesman Musa Ibrahim described as "liberated" Misurata, about 125 miles to the east.

Reporters were briefly taken to one location just inside the jittery, war-damaged city where plumes of smoke rose in the distance and automatic-weapons fire rattled continuously as dusk approached. A few dozen Kadafi supporters, including children, who had been shuttled in from outside the city in police pickup trucks were presented as Misurata residents.

Otherwise the streets were an abandoned, battle-scorched wasteland of broken glass and the detritus of warfare......

 
Stratfor map showing the European oil operations in Libya. Map was posted by Rush Limbaugh otherwise it would be limited to Stratfor members.

189613_214417811907221_136264019722601_992272_4396938_n.jpg
 
A rather interesting BBC background piece on Gadaffi. There is a nice video of him supporting popular uprising against middle Eastern tyrants. It doesn't show his palaces or bevy of concubines though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/2011/03/goodies_and_baddies.html
 
Brit pilot shortage making it tough to staff next ROTO according to The Telegraph:
Since the conflict began, a squadron of 18 RAF Typhoon pilots has enforced the Libya no-fly zone from an air base in southern Italy. However, a shortage of qualified fighter pilots means the RAF may not have enough to replace all of them when the squadron has to rotate in a few weeks.

The situation is so serious that the RAF has halted the teaching of trainee Typhoon pilots so instructors can be drafted on to the front line, according to air force sources. The handful of pilots used for air shows will also be withdrawn from displays this summer.

The shortage has arisen because cuts to the defence budget over the past decade have limited the number of pilots who have been trained to fly the new Typhoon.

There are also fewer newly qualified pilots coming through after the RAF was forced to cut a quarter of its trainee places due to cuts announced in last year’s Strategic Defence and Security Review ....
 
Qaddafi loyalist forces turn back the rebel advance...again:

link

TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Muammar Gaddafi's better armed and organised troops reversed the westward charge of Libyan rebels as world powers met in London on Tuesday to plot the country's future without the "brother leader."

Ahead of the conference, President Barack Obama told Americans in a televised address that U.S. forces would not get bogged down trying to topple Gaddafi, but he stopped short of spelling out how the military campaign in Libya would end.

The United States is scaling back to a "supporting role" to let NATO take full command from U.S. forces on Wednesday, but air strikes by U.S., French and British planes remain key to smashing Gaddafi's armor and facilitating rebel advances.

It took five days of allied air strikes to pulverize Libyan government tanks around the town of Ajdabiyah before Gaddafi's troops fled and the rebels rushed in and began their 300-km (200-mile), two-day dash across the desert to within 80 km (50 miles) of the Gaddafi loyalist stronghold of Sirte.

But the rebel pick-up truck cavalcade was first ambushed, then outflanked by Gaddafi's troops. The advance stopped and government forces retook the small town of Nawfaliyah, 120 km (75 miles) east of Sirte.


"The Gaddafi guys hit us with Grads (rockets) and they came round our flanks," Ashraf Mohammed, a 28-year-old rebel wearing a bandolier of bullets, told a Reuters reporter at the front.

REBELS ON THE RUN

The sporadic thud of heavy weapons could be heard as dozens of civilian cars sped eastwards away from the fight.

One man stopped his car to berate the rebels.

"Get yourselves up there and stop posing for pictures," he shouted, but met little response.

Later, a hail of machinegun and rocket fire hit rebel positions. As the onslaught began, rebels leapt behind sand dunes to fire back but gave up after a few minutes, jumped into their pick-up trucks and sped off back down the road to the town of Bin Jawad. Shells landed near the road as they retreated.

Without air strikes it appears the rebels are not able to hold ground or make advances. The battle around Sirte, Gaddafi's birthplace, will show if the rebels have reached their limit.


Reports that some Nawfaliyah residents had fought alongside government troops are an ominous sign for world powers hoping for a swift end to Gaddafi's 41-year rule.

Obama said he had no choice but to act to avoid "violence on a horrific scale" against the Libyan people.

Gaddafi accused Western powers of massacres of Libyan civilians in alliance with rebels he said were al Qaeda members.

"Stop your brutal and unjust attack on our country ... Hundreds of Libyans are being killed because of this bombardment. Massacres are being mercilessly committed against the Libyan people," he said in a letter to world leaders carried by Libya's official news agency.

"We are a people united behind the leadership of the revolution, facing the terrorism of al Qaeda on the one hand and on the other hand terrorism by NATO, which now directly supports al Qaeda," he said.

The rebels deny any al Qaeda links and on Tuesday promised free and fair elections if Gaddafi is forced from power.

More than 40 governments and international organisations met in London on Tuesday to set up a steering group, including Arab states, to provide political guidance for the response to the war and coordinate long-term support to Libya.

Both Britain and Italy suggested Gaddafi might be allowed to go into exile to bring a quick end to the six-week civil war, but the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said there was no evidence the Libyan leader was prepared to leave.

NO REGIME CHANGE MISSION

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met the opposition Libyan National Council envoy Mahmoud Jebril before the London talks. A senior U.S. official said the two could discuss releasing $33 billion in frozen Libyan assets to the opposition.

Such meetings also help Washington better understand the rebel leadership, its military forces and the problems they face, the official said, though Obama pledged once again that U.S. ground forces would not be deployed to help them out.

"We will deny the regime arms, cut off its supply of cash, assist the opposition and work with other nations to hasten the day when Gaddafi leaves power," Obama said, but the United States would not use force to topple him, as it had in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.


"To be blunt, we went down that road in Iraq," Obama said.

The United States though has not ruled out arming the rebels, ambassador Rice said.

"Over the long term, as the president said, there are other things that are at our disposal that perhaps will assist in speeding Gaddafi's exit," she told CBS television.

In western Libya, rebels and forces loyal to Gaddafi both claimed control over parts of Misrata and fighting appeared to persist in the fiercely contested city, Libya's third largest.

Gaddafi's forces launched another attempt to seize control of Misrata on Tuesday, said a rebel spokesman in the city which has been under siege for more than a month.

Government troops "tried an hour ago to get into the town through the eastern gate. The youths are trying to push them back. Fighting is still taking place now. Random bombardment is continuing," the spokesman, called Sami, told Reuters by telephone from the city. "Eight civilians were killed and several others wounded last night."


Another rebel spokesman, in Benghazi, said 124 civilians had been killed in the past nine days of fighting in Misrata, based on numbers obtained from hospitals in the city.

(Additional reporting by Angus MacSwan, Alexander Dziadosz, Edmund Blair, Maria Golovnina, Michael Georgy, Ibon Villelabeitia, Lamine Chikhi, Hamid Ould Ahmed, Marie-Louise Gumuchian, Andrew Quinn and David Brunnstrom; Writing by Jon Hemming; Editing by Giles Elgood)
 
Rebels are being routed and the regime is picking up popular support.
 
Greeeeeeeat.........
The mantra, from President Obama on down, is that ground forces are totally ruled out for Libya. After all, the United Nations Security Council Resolution authorizing the war explicitly rules out any “occupation” forces. But leave it to the top military officer of NATO, which takes over the war on Wednesday, to add an asterisk to that ban.

During a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island asked Adm. James Stavridis about NATO putting forces into “post-Gadhafi” Libya to make sure the country doesn’t fall apart. Stavridis said he “wouldn’t say NATO’s considering it yet.” But because of NATO’s history of putting peacekeepers in the Balkans — as pictured above — “the possibility of a stabilization regime exists.”

So welcome to a new possible “endgame” for Libya. Western troops patrolling Libya’s cities during a a shaky transition after Moammar Gadhafi’s regime has fallen, however that’s supposed to happen.
Thousands of NATO troops patrolled Bosnia and Kosovo’s tense streets for years. And Iraq and Afghanistan taught the U.S. and NATO very dearly that fierce insurgent conflict can follow the end of a brutal regime. In fact, it’s the moments after the regime falls that can be the most dangerous of all — especially if well-intentioned foreign troops become an object of local resentment.

In fact, Stavridis told Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma that he saw “flickers of intelligence” indicating “al-Qaeda [and] Hezbollah” have fighters amongst the Libyan rebels. The Supreme Allied Commander of NATO noted that the leadership of the rebels are “responsible men and women struggling against Col. Gadhafi” and couldn’t say if the terrorist element in the opposition is “significant.” But the U.S. knows precious little about who the Libyan rebels are ....
No.  No.  No.  Please, no.
 
Time to bring in a battalion of troops (the US already has a ship with Marines on the way)....get this over with....they already have enough justification and authority from the Arab countries.....knock out Gaddafi's armed forces, turn it over to existing rebel alliance, and get on with life...
 
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