The following piece from the Daily Telegraph, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act, makes a good case for Western governments to stand aside and let the locals run their own affairs. The results may not be what we would have desired, but to impose a solution will just make matters worse.
Libya: The Arab Spring may yet turn to chilly winter
We may not like the consequences of elections in North Africa - but we must not repeat the mistakes of the past.
By Peter Oborne
9:00PM BST 22 Oct 2011
The extra-judicial execution of Colonel Gaddafi has been greeted with international elation, and understandably so. There was very little to be said in favour of that gnarled torturer and war criminal. Nicolas Sarkozy and David Cameron, who masterminded the campaign against him, have some excuse to take the view that with the killing of Gaddafi, and today’s elections in Tunisia, the Arab Spring appears to be entering a hopeful stage.
But in truth, they have more reason to be fearful. Last week, I accompanied the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, on a tour of North Africa. The mood in Libya was understandably buoyant – yet it was another destination on our itinerary that provided a hideous warning about what might happen next.
This coming December marks the 20th anniversary of the Algerian Spring, when free elections seemed to bring an end to a long period of ugly dictatorship. Yet those elections did not lead to the liberal democratic nirvana envisaged by Cameron and Sarkozy today. On the contrary, they were followed by a decade of hideously barbaric civil war, in which more than 160,000 Algerians died and the most unspeakable atrocities were perpetrated by all sides in the conflict.
Even today, Algeria has not recovered. As a society, it is suffering from a kind of post-traumatic stress syndrome. The streets are empty at night – a legacy of the curfew imposed during the civil war years – the country is a police state and al-Qaeda has established its North African headquarters in the ungovernable south.
As the Arab Spring embarks on its next stage, it is essential to ask: what went wrong in Algeria? This question is all the more urgent because the similarities between what happened then and what is happening in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya today are alarmingly close.
Back in 1991, Algeria was suffering from mass unemployment, social discontent and riots in the streets. Eventually, the president, Chadli Bendjedid, felt obliged to call an election. What followed was a fantastically hopeful period for the country. Opposition parties mobilised and, after a lively and what is widely accepted to have been a free and fair election, the Islamic Salvation Front emerged victorious.
It was at this stage that the army intervened, strongly backed by France, the former colonial power, and the CIA. The generals declared a state of emergency, cancelled future elections, and curtailed free speech and the right to public assembly. The effects were utterly catastrophic.
We now face a wave of elections all across North Africa – today in Tunisia, next month in Egypt, and in eight months’ time in Libya. It is, of course, possible that these will be won by the secular liberal parties beloved of the West. But that is unlikely. In today’s vote in Tunisia, for example, the Islamic group Ennahda is set to emerge as the largest party. That outcome will be especially unwelcome for France, which continues to regard Tunisia as part of its sphere of influence more than 50 years after the country gained its theoretical independence.
In Egypt, meanwhile, a quiet military coup, tacitly supported by the United States, has put the brakes on the move to democracy. Elections that were originally meant to be held last month have been delayed: they are now planned for next month. At some point, however, they must happen – and when they do, there is no question that the Muslim Brotherhood will emerge as a dominant force. My guess is that, at some stage, a version of Islamic law is likely to be imposed across Egypt.
Let us now consider the case of Libya. It is impossible to predict the course of events now that Gaddafi has fallen, and there will be many powerful voices in the new transitional government that indeed reflect the secular, liberal views of Western democracy. But it is perfectly possible that Abdel Hakim Belhaj, the rebel commander who claims to have been tortured by the CIA in secret jails (allegedly with British complicity), will emerge as a powerful force. His and his supporters’ presence within the rebel movement is almost certainly the reason that al-Qaeda has failed to establish a presence in Tripoli over recent weeks – but his Islamist backers, or other, similar factions, may well form alliances that take Libya in a direction that is profoundly distasteful to Britain, France and the United States of America.
What should we do? The answer, I believe, is that we must leave well alone. At this delicate stage, it is essential to bear in mind that several competing narratives are available to explain the trajectory of the Arab Spring. The narrative most favoured in the West explains events in terms of the victory of freedom and democracy over a series of ugly autocratic regimes. This narrative is true as far as it goes – but it is sadly incomplete. Those autocratic regimes were, without exception, created or sponsored by the West. President Ben Ali in Tunisia, President Mubarak in Egypt, and even Colonel Gaddafi in Libya all had their connections to Western democracies. Their security forces were often trained by us; their torturers collaborated with us; and our corporations did very profitable business with them.
This is why there is a terrifying paradox at work this weekend. The Arab Spring has certainly been a victory of freedom and decency against barbarity and repression. But it has also been, in a very fundamental way, something completely different: a revolt against Western post-colonial domination. We have consistently preferred to ignore or forget this central point, but the revolutionary leaders in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya are extremely conscious of this uncomfortable truth.
That is why it is so very important that this weekend, we reflect very carefully on the Algerian calamity. If we move once again to suppress national movements across North Africa, we will not simply risk plunging the region into chaos and brutal civil war, we may even achieve something even more dangerous and self-destructive: we may enfranchise and justify al-Qaeda.
Thus far, the Arab Spring has represented a total defeat for the ugly ideology of violent nihilism preached by bin Laden and his successors. That is because this year’s events have shown that change for the better can be achieved peacefully, through democratic means. If we step in now to block that democratic change – however unpalatable its consequences may be for us – the Arab Spring may turn almost overnight into a long and dark Arab winter.
Libya: The Arab Spring may yet turn to chilly winter
We may not like the consequences of elections in North Africa - but we must not repeat the mistakes of the past.
By Peter Oborne
9:00PM BST 22 Oct 2011
The extra-judicial execution of Colonel Gaddafi has been greeted with international elation, and understandably so. There was very little to be said in favour of that gnarled torturer and war criminal. Nicolas Sarkozy and David Cameron, who masterminded the campaign against him, have some excuse to take the view that with the killing of Gaddafi, and today’s elections in Tunisia, the Arab Spring appears to be entering a hopeful stage.
But in truth, they have more reason to be fearful. Last week, I accompanied the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, on a tour of North Africa. The mood in Libya was understandably buoyant – yet it was another destination on our itinerary that provided a hideous warning about what might happen next.
This coming December marks the 20th anniversary of the Algerian Spring, when free elections seemed to bring an end to a long period of ugly dictatorship. Yet those elections did not lead to the liberal democratic nirvana envisaged by Cameron and Sarkozy today. On the contrary, they were followed by a decade of hideously barbaric civil war, in which more than 160,000 Algerians died and the most unspeakable atrocities were perpetrated by all sides in the conflict.
Even today, Algeria has not recovered. As a society, it is suffering from a kind of post-traumatic stress syndrome. The streets are empty at night – a legacy of the curfew imposed during the civil war years – the country is a police state and al-Qaeda has established its North African headquarters in the ungovernable south.
As the Arab Spring embarks on its next stage, it is essential to ask: what went wrong in Algeria? This question is all the more urgent because the similarities between what happened then and what is happening in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya today are alarmingly close.
Back in 1991, Algeria was suffering from mass unemployment, social discontent and riots in the streets. Eventually, the president, Chadli Bendjedid, felt obliged to call an election. What followed was a fantastically hopeful period for the country. Opposition parties mobilised and, after a lively and what is widely accepted to have been a free and fair election, the Islamic Salvation Front emerged victorious.
It was at this stage that the army intervened, strongly backed by France, the former colonial power, and the CIA. The generals declared a state of emergency, cancelled future elections, and curtailed free speech and the right to public assembly. The effects were utterly catastrophic.
We now face a wave of elections all across North Africa – today in Tunisia, next month in Egypt, and in eight months’ time in Libya. It is, of course, possible that these will be won by the secular liberal parties beloved of the West. But that is unlikely. In today’s vote in Tunisia, for example, the Islamic group Ennahda is set to emerge as the largest party. That outcome will be especially unwelcome for France, which continues to regard Tunisia as part of its sphere of influence more than 50 years after the country gained its theoretical independence.
In Egypt, meanwhile, a quiet military coup, tacitly supported by the United States, has put the brakes on the move to democracy. Elections that were originally meant to be held last month have been delayed: they are now planned for next month. At some point, however, they must happen – and when they do, there is no question that the Muslim Brotherhood will emerge as a dominant force. My guess is that, at some stage, a version of Islamic law is likely to be imposed across Egypt.
Let us now consider the case of Libya. It is impossible to predict the course of events now that Gaddafi has fallen, and there will be many powerful voices in the new transitional government that indeed reflect the secular, liberal views of Western democracy. But it is perfectly possible that Abdel Hakim Belhaj, the rebel commander who claims to have been tortured by the CIA in secret jails (allegedly with British complicity), will emerge as a powerful force. His and his supporters’ presence within the rebel movement is almost certainly the reason that al-Qaeda has failed to establish a presence in Tripoli over recent weeks – but his Islamist backers, or other, similar factions, may well form alliances that take Libya in a direction that is profoundly distasteful to Britain, France and the United States of America.
What should we do? The answer, I believe, is that we must leave well alone. At this delicate stage, it is essential to bear in mind that several competing narratives are available to explain the trajectory of the Arab Spring. The narrative most favoured in the West explains events in terms of the victory of freedom and democracy over a series of ugly autocratic regimes. This narrative is true as far as it goes – but it is sadly incomplete. Those autocratic regimes were, without exception, created or sponsored by the West. President Ben Ali in Tunisia, President Mubarak in Egypt, and even Colonel Gaddafi in Libya all had their connections to Western democracies. Their security forces were often trained by us; their torturers collaborated with us; and our corporations did very profitable business with them.
This is why there is a terrifying paradox at work this weekend. The Arab Spring has certainly been a victory of freedom and decency against barbarity and repression. But it has also been, in a very fundamental way, something completely different: a revolt against Western post-colonial domination. We have consistently preferred to ignore or forget this central point, but the revolutionary leaders in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya are extremely conscious of this uncomfortable truth.
That is why it is so very important that this weekend, we reflect very carefully on the Algerian calamity. If we move once again to suppress national movements across North Africa, we will not simply risk plunging the region into chaos and brutal civil war, we may even achieve something even more dangerous and self-destructive: we may enfranchise and justify al-Qaeda.
Thus far, the Arab Spring has represented a total defeat for the ugly ideology of violent nihilism preached by bin Laden and his successors. That is because this year’s events have shown that change for the better can be achieved peacefully, through democratic means. If we step in now to block that democratic change – however unpalatable its consequences may be for us – the Arab Spring may turn almost overnight into a long and dark Arab winter.
umpkin:
