- Reaction score
- 35
- Points
- 560
A different way of looking at the numbers. I am not clear what the blogger means by "In reality, given that the debt is incurred and owned by the same borrower and could easily be papered over by an Act of Congress", since taken literally it would mean revoking Social Security, which won't go over well with the Boomer voters.
The longer term hope lies in demographics. If the United States maintains its birthrate, they will have the workers to man the factory floors and soldiers to man the barricades while China, Russia and the EU tank due to their population implosions. Canadians are going along with the EU WRT population, but in our case, I suppose we will be "recolonized" by Americans seeking land and opportunity (and they will be socially conservative "Red State" Americans, since the "Blue Staters" are also following the EU, Russia and China down the demographic slope).
This is very much a long term issue, since the effects of the demographic implosions will start making themselves felt @ 2020 and continue until the 2040's at a minimum. We will live in interesting times.
http://westernstandard.blogs.com/shotgun/2008/10/the-fiscal-bala.html
The longer term hope lies in demographics. If the United States maintains its birthrate, they will have the workers to man the factory floors and soldiers to man the barricades while China, Russia and the EU tank due to their population implosions. Canadians are going along with the EU WRT population, but in our case, I suppose we will be "recolonized" by Americans seeking land and opportunity (and they will be socially conservative "Red State" Americans, since the "Blue Staters" are also following the EU, Russia and China down the demographic slope).
This is very much a long term issue, since the effects of the demographic implosions will start making themselves felt @ 2020 and continue until the 2040's at a minimum. We will live in interesting times.
http://westernstandard.blogs.com/shotgun/2008/10/the-fiscal-bala.html
The Fiscal Balance of the American Federal Government
I, for one am a little bit tired of hearing about how “the United States is bankrupt” from people with a minute level of knowledge of international finance. In truth – despite recent setbacks – the U.S. Federal Government is probably in the best shape of any major world government when one measures total debt, assets, and ability to borrow.
Let’s begin with one fallacy – the size of the Federal Debt. Down below, Mike cites a debt-to-GDP ratio of 70% for the United States. This is an officially accurate number – but it’s an extremely misleading one. That’s because a large portion of the U.S. Public Debt ($4.3 Trillion of $10.1) is held by (wait for it)… the Federal Government. It may sound strange, but it’s true – the Federal Government owes about 42% of the American national debt to the Federal Government.
Bizarre? Sure. But it’s the truth. What happens each year, as a result of a Social Security reform law, is that the Federal Government notionally “borrows” the Social Security surplus from itself. In reality, given that the debt is incurred and owned by the same borrower and could easily be papered over by an Act of Congress, it shouldn’t be counted when comparing the American public debt to that of other major industrial nations.
In other words, if you ignore the money that the Federal Government owes to itself, the real debt to GDP ratio of the US Government is something like 41% - better than most developed nations (indeed, Canada’s is still just under 70%).
Even this, I should add, understates things even further – because the Federal Government owns, as of 2007, a little over 42 Million acres of land, much of it filled with unexploited resources. If that property interest were to be liquidated in an orderly fashion over a period of time (say twenty years), it could generate the revenues to retire an appreciable portion of the nation’s debt.
The present balance of the U.S. Government is strong. If you want to argue over the future – and in particular how that $4.3 Trillion that the Government notionally owes to itself is just a downpayment on future pension bills – well, then we have another story altogether.
But, on that count, let me point something out to you – that’s a problem that everyone has. Indeed, because it continues to experience robust population growth and has a higher-than-replacement birthrate, the United States is the Western country with the best chance of successfully navigating the pending pension crisis.
Does this mean that everything is great? No, far from it – but it does mean that the sky isn’t falling over America. Indeed, the United States has – and God willing will be able to keep – one great advantage over every other major country: it doesn’t have a national health care system. Medicare and Medicaid, one could argue, are bad enough – but I don’t think that’s the case. Because they aren’t universal entitlements, it will be much easier to target them for destruction when the fiscal crisis comes. In Canada and other places, on the other hand, I think that we will continue to embrace the futile delusion that socialized medicine is economically feasible until the day that our governments literally hit the wall.
Indeed, that’s the one silver lining of the present credit crisis – it makes any sort of socialized health care system in the United States impossible to afford. And it won’t be getting any more affordable as the years go by.
Dealing with the coming pension and health crisis is going to be dangerous game. As we saw when President Bush tried it in 2005, there’s probably too much vested in those programs right now to fight them and win. The key is timing. Time is on our side. It’s true that the Baby Boomers are aging and going to start retiring – but that also means that they’re going to start dying as well. And it’s worth remembering that, under the status quo, Baby Boomers are likely to vote for these programs for two reasons – that they expect to benefit from them and that they want their parents to continue to do the same (they being of the Greatest Generation and all). As time marches on and Generation X’ers and Echo-Boomers come to make up the largest voting cohort, it’s worth pondering if they will have the same regard for the most selfish generation that threw away so much of what their parents fought for and who ran up most of the debts that we now have to contend with. I, for one, am of the attitude that my own Baby Boomer parents have sufficient wealth to see them through the rest of their lives and that the rest of the wretched generation to which they lamentably belong can go beg in the streets (but, ideally, not my streets) before they can get a cent of my money. That’s a minority attitude for now – but give it time.
Posted by Adam T. Yoshida on October 6, 2008 in International Affairs | Permalink