Venezuela - Possibility of Invasion of Guyana

[Kirkhill]

It's a scenario that's been played out many times over the decades, and is not likely to end any time soon. Desertions notwithstanding :



A series of meetings, begun in 1969, ended abruptly in 1972 when the United Kingdom, in response to intelligence suggesting an imminent Guatemalan invasion, announced it was sending the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and her air wing (Phantom FG.1s and Blackburn Buccaneers) alongside 8,000 troops to Belize to conduct amphibious exercises.[20] Guatemala responded by deploying its own troops along the border. Talks resumed in 1973, but broke off in 1975 when tensions flared once again. Guatemala again began massing troops on the border, and the United Kingdom responded by deploying troops, along with a battery of 105mm field guns, surface-to-air missiles, six fighter jets, and a frigate. Following this deployment, tensions were defused, largely as a result of many Guatemalan soldiers deserting.[16]

Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Many of those Guatemalans now in the US....

Migration, country by country, at the U.S.-Mexico border - WOLA

The COVID pandemic, and related U.S. efforts to curtail access to asylum, have caused patterns of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border to fluctuate in often sharp and unpredictable ways. The two graphics below indicate the top countries of citizenship of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico...

www.wola.org

 

[YZT580]

The US has 3 carrier groups in/around the Med on standby if things kick off there, so no more carrier strike groups to go around

The UK carrier group just got home a few days ago from exercising with the various other players in her capability umbrella...what better time than to go do it for real off a real world potential hotspot?

I'm sure the various crews would be pumped for it tbh



What's the French carrier up to right now?

not over Christmas they wouldn't

 

[Kilted]

Time to buy stock in Guyana flags, they should be making their way into the hands of protestors in western countries soon.

Right?

Don't you mean Venezuelan flags? The way our Union's love Nicolás Maduro they are probably already planning a Venezuelan Victory Parade to take place in Toronto.

​

 

[KevinB]

USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker: Nov. 27, 2023

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of Nov. 27, 2023, based on Navy and public data. In cases where a CSG or ARG is conducting disaggregated operations, the chart reflects the location of the...

news.usni.org

Realistically XVIII Airborne Corps is going to be the main US response.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Realistically XVIII Airborne Corps is going to be the main US response.

At the moment the response is a bit more lowkey.

https://www.facebook.com/1SFAB/posts/pfbid02fLftdbWkq5nq2ifEZk7aq4D1Ex9iLFh7SDemMpyGAvoRpfnqrREA2GBtJ8cpW47Yl

 

[daftandbarmy]

At the moment the response is a bit more lowkey.

https://www.facebook.com/1SFAB/posts/pfbid02fLftdbWkq5nq2ifEZk7aq4D1Ex9iLFh7SDemMpyGAvoRpfnqrREA2GBtJ8cpW47Yl

Who is looking after who?

 

[Blackadder1916]

Who is looking after who whom?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Well, at least I now I know who's looking after me (grammatically)

 

[Retired AF Guy]

What's the French carrier up to right now?

Speaking of the French don't they have some FFL right next door?

 

[medicineman]

Speaking of the French don't they have some FFL right next door?

2 countries east in French Guyana...protection for their space program and running their Jungle School.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

2 countries east in French Guyana...protection for their space program and running their Jungle School.

My bad Geography!!

 

[Kirkhill]

My bad Geography!!

Venezuela, British Guiana, Dutch Guiana, French Guiana - as I learnt it while coming out of the ice.

Now Guyana, Suriname, Guyane.

The Dutch maintain a proprietary interest in Suriname much as the Brits do in Guyana and the French do in Guyane.

The Dutch Marines

Marines with 1/2 participate in Suriname Jungle Training

U.S. Marines with 1st Battalion, 2nd Marine Regiment (1/2), 2nd Marine Division (MARDIV) accepted an invitation from The Commandant of the Netherlands Marine Corps to participate in a unique training

www.2ndmardiv.marines.mil

Locations[edit]​

The majority of the operational units are based at the Van Braam Houckgeestkazerne in Doorn, in the province of Utrecht. These barracks are the headquarters of the Marine Combat Groups, Sea-based Support Group, and the staff and M-Squadron of NLMARSOF. Due to obsolescence of the location a new base is being constructed at Kamp Nieuw Milligen near the city of Apeldoorn. The Van Ghentkazerne is based in the city of Rotterdam and provides the basic training and many other training courses within the Corps. The Joost Dourleinkazerne is based on the island of Texel and functions as a forward operating base for the Surface Assault and Training Group from which all sorts of amphibious training can be employed. Moreover, the Corps has multiple bases and auxiliary branches in the Dutch Caribbean. Below follows an overview of the Corps' bases:

• Van Braam Houckgeestkazerne—Doorn, Utrecht
• Van Ghentkazerne—Rotterdam, South Holland
• Joost Dourleinkazerne—Texel, North Holland

Caribbean bases in the Suriname area.

• Marinebasis Parera—Willemstad, Curaçao
• Marinierskazerne Savaneta—Savaneta, Aruba
• Marinekazerne Suffisant—Curaçao
• Marinesteunpunt Pointe Blanche—Sint Maarten

 

[KevinB]

Chinese proxy?

China won’t be bankrolling this.

They prefer a less dramatic approach to their takeovers.

This has got VVP encouragement written all over it.

 

[TacticalTea]

China won’t be bankrolling this.

They prefer a less dramatic approach to their takeovers.

This has got VVP encouragement written all over it.

I don't think China would be so overt either.

But the proliferation of international wars is in the greatest interest of China, given its effects on America's ability to contain China.

 

[Kirkhill]

China won’t be bankrolling this.

They prefer a less dramatic approach to their takeovers.

This has got VVP encouragement written all over it.

I would see VVP as Xi's cut-out.

 

[KevinB]

I would see VVP as Xi's cut-out.

Fair point. Xi tends to play Vlad like a fiddle.

 

[suffolkowner]

Should Venezuela invade its oil-rich neighbor? Maduro will put it to a vote Sunday

Venezuelans going to the polls Sunday will be asked to answer an unusually provocative question:

news.yahoo.com

so if Venezuelans vote to invade/annex the Essequibo will the Venezuelan government ignore it ?

 

[Blackadder1916]

I foget what the Brits called the little op in 1972 when Guatemala was rattling a sabre at what is now Belize . They took the carrier Ark Royal from somewhere in the mid Atlantic drove her to within 1000 mile from Belize .
Where they promptly launched two Buccaneers who flew a demonstration flight over the capitol Georgetown.
The other guys got the message and promptly backed down.
Perhaps it's time to replay that scenario.

The difference is that in 1972, when Guatemala was rattling its sabre, Belize was a British "colony"; they were nine years away from full independence. Probably the only nation of note that supported agreed with Guatemala in its stance that British Honduras should be incorporated into them was the USA, though that support did not extend to backing military action. Nor did it extend to the USA interfering with Belize being admitted to the UN - they abstained in the vote. With Belizean independence in 1981 came the UK's defence guarantee.

British Guiana, now Guyana, took a slightly different approach when they gained independence in 1966. For most of the first decade and a half following independence, the country was largely a "one party" political system and a socialist leaning party under the same leader to boot. While they maintained some ties with the UK, it did not extend to the same defence guarantees the UK provided to Belize.

There is some interesting background provided in this "Organizational Analysis Book" (written in 2009) found on the GDF web site.

http://3.136.151.134/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GDF-Organisational-Analysis-Book.pdf

In discussing the GDF's "international" (vice regional) security initiatives they specifically identify five countries; United States, United Kingdom, China, Canada and India. Yes, "Canada" gets a mention.

. . . There is no formal security or defence agreement with the Canadian Military, however, the Canadian Military has recently returned to offering military staff training to the Guyana Defence Force. This is a welcome return. The Canadian Staff Schools are very competitive and the learning in Canada is easily de-rated to suit the Guyana Defence Force. The Force must continue to forge even stronger relationships with the Canadian military to include the provision of specialised military, air and Coast Guard training.

I found this interesting as there was a Guyanese officer (major) in the same syndicate as me when I attended Staff School in the 1980s. As well, a couple of years previously, there was a Belizean OCdt in my BOTC platoon at CFOCS Chilliwack.

 

[Maxman1]

They just voted yes to invading Guyana.

 

[daftandbarmy]

They just voted yes to invading Guyana.