Why Europe Keeps Failing........ merged with "EU Seizes Cypriot Bank Accounts"

[Kirkhill]

I am not a great fan of profligacy - I believe there is merit in treating a set of books like a set of books and working to balance them.

Having said that:  Cupper you (and Blyth) have a point.

The Bank of England originated, I believe, as counter point to fixed exchange rates, monetarism and Colbertism.

Charles II ate up all the gold in England and Scotland, and a good chunk of France's gold as well.  He couldn't make Marquises and Dukes fast enough to keep his coffers filled.  He tried repossessing all the gold held by the jewellers of London in payment for his debts with the intention of selling it back to them. 

None of this endeared him to the merchants or the nobility of the day and helped bring his brother to a short end. 

It took a Dutchman to agree to put England into a permanent state of debt by selling his debt to the Scots and Huguenots of the Bank of England.  With that England, and Scotland, became incredibly wealthy and for the best part of 250 years rode out wars and tempests and left the feudalists and dirigistes gasping.

300 years and they still haven't figured out what happened to them...

 

[Edward Campbell]

This one should make Thucydides head explode

A very interesting anti-austerity article from Time Ideas by Mark Blyth
http://ideas.time.com/2013/04/18/why-austerity-is-a-dangerous-idea/

An even better article is in the current issue of Foreign Affairs by Blyth in which he analyzes the failure of austerity to solve the European problem, and argues that austerity compounds the problems.  A great and wide ranging history of austerity and worth the read.  I might have to pick up his new book.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139105/mark-blyth/the-austerity-delusion

I agree, broadly, with Blyth. John Maynard Keynes was, generally, correct. Stimulus is a good way to tackle a recession/depression. But everyone forgets that Keynes' prescription was twofold: borrow to stimulate in a recession/depression and cut spending and pay off debt when times are good. To make Keynes work the stimulus must be the sort of spending that can be cut - in other words social spending cannot be used to stimulate the economy, the stimulus must be spent on 'hard' projects like paving roads, dredging harbours and building bridges. (Maintenance, which should be permanent and steady is not part of a a stimulus programme - if you build something and then fail to maintain it you are simply stupid.)

Further, defence spending is not a good stimulus tool. Stimulus spending ought to be productive and defence spending is never, ever productive. Sometimes it is necessary, even vital and at times it may, properly, be the government's highest priority but it is NOT productive. Every dollar spent of defence is, in strict economic terms, wasted.

The problem is much of Europe, especially visible in Spain and Portugal, is that there was an orgy of infrastructure building when times were good and now people want social spending, not construction jobs.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If the decade 1997-2007 had, in most economies, been a time of "average" government revenues, the anti-anti-austerity analysts would have a point.  But 1997-2007 was, in most economies, a time of exceptionally high government revenues (which did not, in most cases, prompt governments to cease borrowing).

What is sometimes mistakenly advertised as "austerity" is, fundamentally, a reversion to spending levels suited to "average" revenues.

People arguing for more spending ("stimulus") are, in essence, arguing that something should be done to re-inflate government spending above what was approximately the revenue all-time high watermark (most governments were borrowing above those revenues).  It is an interesting experiment - examine whether it is possible to spend at, say, 110-120% of revenues, indefinitely - but it is one I am content to leave to some other country to experience.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And things go from bad to worse acording to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Der Spiegel:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-failing-to-combat-youth-unemployment-a-900621.html

Jobless Youth: Europe's Hollow Efforts to Save a Lost Generation
Europe is failing in the fight against youth unemployment. While the German government's efforts remain largely symbolic, Southern European leaders pander to older voters by defending the status quo.

May 20, 2013

Stylia Kampani did everything right, and she still doesn't know what the future holds for her. The 23-year-old studied international relations in her native Greece and spent a year at the University of Bremen in northern Germany. She completed an internship at the foreign ministry in Athens and worked for the Greek Embassy in Berlin. Now she is doing an unpaid internship with the prestigious Athens daily newspaper Kathimerini. And what happens after that? "Good question," says Kampani. "I don't know."

"None of my friends believes that we have a future or will be able to live a normal life," says Kampani. "That wasn't quite the case four years ago."
Four years ago -- that was before the euro crisis began. Since then, the Greek government has approved a series of austerity programs, which have been especially hard on young people. The unemployment rate among Greeks under 25 has been above 50 percent for months. The situation is similarly dramatic in Spain, Portugal and Italy. According to Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, the rate of unemployment among young adults in the EU has climbed to 23.5 percent. A lost generation is taking shape in Europe. And European governments seem clueless when they hear the things people like Athenian university graduate Alexandros are saying: "We don't want to leave Greece, but the constant uncertainty makes us tired and depressed."

Instead of launching effective education and training programs to prepare Southern European youth for a professional life after the crisis, the Continent's political elites preferred to wage old ideological battles. There were growing calls for traditional economic stimulus programs at the European Commission in Brussels. The governments of debt-ridden countries paid more attention to the status quo of their primarily older voters. Meanwhile, the creditor nations in the north were opposed to anything that could cost money.

In this way, Europe wasted valuable time, at least until governments were shaken early this month by news of a very worrisome record: Unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds has climbed above 60 percent in Greece.

Suddenly Europe is scrambling to address the problem. Youth unemployment will top the agenda of a summit of European leaders in June. And Italy's new prime minister, Enrico Letta, is demanding that the fight against youth unemployment become an "obsession" for the EU.

Big Promises, Scant Results

These are strong words coming out of Europe's capitals today, but they have not been followed by any action to date.

For instance, in February the European Council voted to set aside an additional €6 billion ($7.8 billion) to fight youth unemployment by 2020, tying the package to a highly symbolic job guarantee. But because member states are still arguing over how the money should be spent, launching the package has had to be postponed until 2014.

A recent Franco-German effort remains equally nebulous. Berlin and Paris want to encourage employers in Southern Europe to hire and train young people by providing them with loans from the European Investment Bank (EIB). The concept is supposed to be unveiled at the end of May. German Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen is its strongest advocate.

In contrast, German efforts to combat the crisis have been limited to recruiting skilled workers from Greece, Spain and Portugal. But now politicians are realizing that high unemployment in Athens and Madrid is a threat to democracy and could be the kiss of death for the euro zone. Perhaps it takes reaching a certain age to recognize the problem. "We need a program to eliminate youth unemployment in Southern Europe. (European Commission President José Manuel) Barroso has failed to do so," says former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, now 94. "This is a scandal beyond compare."

Economists also argue that it's about time Europe did something about the problem. "The long-term prospects of young people in the crisis-ridden countries are extremely grim. This increases the risk of radicalization of an entire generation," warns Joachim Möller, director of Germany's Institute of Employment Research, a labor market think tank. "It was a mistake for politicians to acknowledge the problem but do nothing for so long," says Michael Hüther, head of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, which is closely aligned with employers. And Wolfgang Franz, former chairman of the German Council of Economic Experts, says that "unconventional approaches" are called for to combat not just youth unemployment but also its long-term negative consequences. "Someone who is unemployed in his or her younger years will spend a lifetime struggling with poorer career opportunities and lower pay," he adds.

In Berlin, the German government is now trying to create the impression that it is doing as much as possible while spending as little as possible. The Franco-German proposal to help Southern European employers is a case in point. Under the plan, the €6 billion from the EU youth assistance program would be distributed to companies through the EIB and thus would multiply, as if by magic. In the end, speculate the plan's proponents, 10 times as much money could be brought into circulation, putting an end to the credit crunch facing many Southern European small businesses.

But even the EIB can't quite imagine how this approach would result in €60 billion. "That number isn't coming from us," say officials in Luxembourg. It seems that €20-30 billion would be a more realistic figure for the coming years.

As it is, there are doubts over the usefulness of broad injections of cash. The first measures coming from Brussels were ineffective and came to nothing. Last year, the European Commission promised the crisis-stricken countries that they could use unspent money from structural funds to implement projects to provide jobs to unemployed youth. Some €16 billion had been applied for by the beginning of this year, funds intended to benefit 780,000 young people. But the experiences are sobering, and concrete successes are few and far between.

An Alternative Solution?

The German cabinet is hastily putting together a different, cost-effective solution. At a roundtable convened by the Ministry of Education two weeks ago, officials from nine departments and representatives of various associations discussed how Germany's dual vocational education and training model could be exported to other countries. Companies tout the advantages of the German system, with its emphasis on practical application, and are critical of the overly academic system in Southern Europe.

According to a draft of a position paper the German cabinet intends to discuss in June, Germany wants to support the crisis-stricken countries in "incorporating elements of dual vocational education and training into their respective systems." The government intends to set up a new "Central Office for International Educational Cooperation" at the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, which could send advisors to the crisis-stricken countries when needed. Ten new positions have already been approved for the new office.

Economist Wolfgang Franz thinks it's the right approach. "We have to improve education and training, especially in the crisis-stricken countries," he says. But there is one thing that irritates him. "We should have started this long ago," says Franz, noting that this criticism also applies to the troubled countries themselves, which failed to implement many reforms when they were needed.

Spain, for example, has lagged behind the rest of Europe for years when it comes to education. It holds the questionable record of having the highest percentage of school dropouts in the EU: 24.9 percent. Paradoxically, Spain's conservative government slashed €10 billion in education funding in 2012. It also eliminated tax breaks for companies that hire newcomers to the job market. The curtailment of support for education is especially noteworthy, given that the majority of the country's 6.2 million unemployed are poorly trained and educated.

Spain's problem is that workers are divided into two classes. Since the Franco dictatorship, it has been virtually impossible to fire people who already have jobs. Young people, on the other hand, have often had to settle for occasional jobs with almost no social security benefits. They were the first to be affected by the crisis. Those who had jobs lost them, and those who didn't were unable to find work -- even people as qualified as 25-year-old Ignacio Martín.

After earning a double degree in political science and law from the renowned Charles III University of Madrid, Martín worked without pay as a legal advisor to immigrants. He and two friends now represent a small actors' union, for which they are paid €950 a month. Martín earns so little that he is unable to afford a room in the capital. Instead, he lives with his unemployed mother in Aravaca, a Madrid suburb.

The key to combating youth unemployment is to reform the divided labor market. But as an internal report by the German government shows, the crisis-stricken countries have hardly made any progress on this front. According to the report, Portugal potentially has "additional efficiency reserves in its school system," while Greece is showing only a few signs of progress, such as a plan to "assist young unemployed women."
The problems associated with a divided labor market are especially striking in Italy, where older workers with employment contracts that are practically non-terminable hold onto jobs, making them inaccessible to younger workers. The words on a demonstrator's T-shirt in Naples summed up the mood among young people: "I don't want to die of uncertainty."

In Athens, young university graduate Stylia Kampani is now thinking of starting over. She is considering moving to Germany. And this time, she adds, she might stay there.

BY SVEN BÖLL, MARKUS DETTMER, FIONA EHLERS, MANFRED ERTEL, CORNELIA SCHMERGAL AND HELENE ZUBER

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

One can only hope the German solution gets off the ground and works. We've seen what happens when Europe fails.

 

[Edward Campbell]

"Home thoughts from Abroad" (pace Robert Browning) from Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to his colleagues in Europe in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mark-carney-warns-europe-of-lost-decade-in-final-speech-as-boc-chief/article12040526/#dashboard/follows/

Mark Carney warns Europe of lost decade in final speech as BoC chief

LEILA LEMGHALEF
MONTREAL — Reuters

Published Tuesday, May. 21 2013

Europe could face a decade of stagnation unless it makes big reforms and should heed the lessons of Japan, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said on Tuesday as he highlighted Japan’s bold moves to bolster growth.

In his final speech as Canadian central bank chief before taking over the Bank of England on July 1, Mr. Carney said Europe’s recessionary economy is being held back by fiscal austerity, low confidence and tight credit conditions.

“Deep challenges persist in its financial system. Without sustained and significant reforms, a decade of stagnation threatens,” Mr. Carney said in prepared text of a speech he was delivering in Montreal.

“Europe can draw lessons from Japan on the dangers of half measures,” he said, adding that the success or failure Japan’s massive monetary stimulus – which he termed a “bold policy experiment” – will affect the outlook in coming years.

Mr. Carney is also the chairman of the Financial Stability Board, the Group of 20 leading economies’ task force on financial regulation.

A euro zone banking union is one of the major reforms Mr. Carney mentioned as a necessary step towards economic health in the region. He made no specific reference to the British economy or Bank of England monetary policy.

Nor did he provide any new guidance on Canadian monetary policy as he prepares to hand over the reins to his successor Stephen Poloz, currently the head of Canada’s export credit agency.

He said only that the Bank of Canada had maintained a rate-hike bias for the past year in part to complement the efforts of the government and the bank regulator to curb record-high household debt.

The Bank of Canada cut its economic growth forecasts for Canada in April, but maintained its message that the next move will be a rate hike, not a cut. Analysts surveyed by Reuters in early April expected a hike in the third quarter of 2014.

While much of Mr. Carney’s speech focused on the Canadian economy’s relatively successful performance in the financial crisis and its aftermath, he warned that the country can no longer rely on consumer borrowing to fuel growth.

Instead, it should turn to business investment and exports, though these are expected to remain relatively weak in the short term.

The central banker said Canada can coast and wait out the decade-long damage-repair process in the rest of the G7 economies, or build on its strengths for the emerging new global economy.

Mr. Carney said the Canadian government is correct in seeking out new trade deals, particularly in emerging economies, because they represent one half of the world’s imports growth and also are essential to securing a position in global supply chains.

The speech to the Montreal Board of Trade, notes of which were released in Ottawa, read somewhat like a valedictory address in which the banker was full of praise for the country’s achievements and endowments, while also urging it on to future successes.

Mr. Carney broke no new ground in the speech as he has long stressed the need to transition Canada’s exports-based industries from reliance on slow-growing economies like the U.S. and Europe to fast-growing markets in China and Asia in general.

But the advice took on added currency given it was likely the last time he will pronounce generally on the Canadian condition for at least the next five years, the term of his posting in London.

He noted while Canada’s economy performed fairly well both during the 2008-09 recession and in the recovery — at least in comparison to the other major economies in the G7 — it could have done better had the country’s export sector been able to hold up.

He calculated that exports are currently $130-billion less than would have been the case in a typical postwar recession. That represents about 8 per cent of gross domestic product.

Even so, Canada coped relatively well to the crisis, he said, noting that by the start of 2011 the country had recovered to the GDP level it held prior to the recession and that as of now, there are 480,000 more Canadians working than in the fall of 2008, when the slump began.

It has been able to make the adjustments because fundamentally the Canadian system works, Mr. Carney said.

Despite criticism, Canada’s labour market is relatively flexible, with labour mobility similar to that in the United States and about four times as flexible as in Europe.

“Canadians are going where the jobs are,” he said. “Last year, there was a net inflow of more than 40,000 people into Alberta from the rest of Canada, a level of mobility that approaches its previous peak.”

Mr. Carney said Canada also has a functioning monetary union despite the lament about provincial trade barriers and the two-speed economy caused by high commodity prices. On the latter, he again dismissed the theory that Canada is beset with Dutch disease, whereby high oil prices inflate the loonie and undermines manufacturing.

“When commodity prices increase, all provinces benefit,” he argued. “All else equal, the Canadian dollar appreciates. [But] it’s adverse impact on our non-commodity exports is partially offset by the fact that a stronger currency reduces the cost of productivity-enhancing machinery and equipment and imported inputs to production.”

Mr. Carney also praised what he calls “fiscal federalism,” the often maligned system of wealth transfers from have to have-not regions. Rather than a weakness, the system helps stabilize localized “asymmetric shocks” and share the risks, he said.

Lastly, the central banker said Canada has been well-served by a sound and regulated banking sector, as well as low government debt that allowed policy-makers room to borrow on global markets to stimulate the economy.

Mr. Carney said Canada cannot rest on its laurels, however.

“In a rapidly shifting world, only sustained education, ingenuity and investment can maintain competitiveness,” he said. “This means we must continuously invest in our workforce. With technology and trade transforming the workplace, the need to improve skills across the spectrum of work has never been greater.”

With files from The Canadian Press

I suppose he warned his new political masters, David Cameron and George Osborne, in advance that he doesn't think much of austerity as a means of promoting growth.

My guess is that, after three years of austerity, we will start to see stimulus in the UK as another election looms.

 

[devil39]

And things go from bad to worse acording to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Der Spiegel:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-failing-to-combat-youth-unemployment-a-900621.html

One can only hope the German solution gets off the ground and works. We've seen what happens when Europe fails.

Over 60% unemployment in 15-24 yr olds is a definite danger....

 

[daftandbarmy]

Over 60% unemployment in 15-24 yr olds is a definite danger....

Especially to their parents who will have to put up with them being at home until they're 40. Oh, wait a minute, that's normal in Southern Europe.  :

 

[Edward Campbell]

Over 60% unemployment in 15-24 yr olds is a definite danger....

We have talked a bit about the political dangers facing Europe - including men on horseback - and here is an example in an article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Guardian:

http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/01/greece-golden-dawn-violence-eu-crisis

Golden Dawn: 'Greece belongs to Greeks. Long live victory!'
EU criticises the establishment's failure to deal with violence in a country suffering from effects of harsh budget cuts

Helena Smith in Athens

Saturday 1 June 2013

It wasn't just that their symbols looked like swastikas. Or that thousands of Greek flags filled the marble square beneath the Acropolis. Or that they were marking the 560th anniversary of the fall of Constantinople.

It was that there were so many of them. Angry men and angry women furiously screaming "Greece belongs to Greeks" in the heart of ancient Athens, as tourists – some befuddled, some shocked – looked on or fled at the sight of neo-Nazis coming to town.

"Now we are in the thousands," thundered Nikos Michaloliakos, the bespectacled mathematician who leads Greece's far-right Golden Dawn party. "Long live victory!"

Members and supporters of Golden Dawn chant the national anthem in front
of the Greek parliament,                            Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Like the soldiers on whom they model themselves, the Greeks who subscribe to the ultra-nationalist, neo-fascist dogma of Golden Dawn are the first to say they are at war. This week, as Antonis Samaras's coalition government struggled to contain an escalating crisis over efforts to curb the extremists, it was they who appeared to be winning that war.

Amid a dramatic surge in attacks on immigrants blamed on the neo-Nazis, the debt-stricken country's ruling alliance has come under unprecedented pressure to crack down on racially motivated crimes. Legislation calling for a ban on parties perceived to incite such violence was proposed by prime minister Samaras's two junior leftist partners last month. Claiming that it would "victimise" Golden Dawn, which has 18 of the 300 MPs in parliament, the conservative groups last week rejected the bill as counterproductive. On Friday they put forward their own, less punitive law.

As parliament prepares to debate how best to apply legislation that will curb the party, – measures that have unexpectedly electrified the political scene – the far right is flourishing in the knowledge that, in a country reeling from the twin ills of austerity and despair, it is they who are in the ascendant. Since elections last year, Golden Dawn's appeal has almost doubled, with successive polls showing support of between 11% and 12% for the neo-fascists. Privately pollsters acknowledge that, as Greece's third-strongest and fastest-growing political force, the group could garner as much as 15% of support in local elections next year.

"It is wrong to believe that they are an ephemeral phenomenon," said Professor Dimitris Kerides, who teaches political science at Athens' Panteion University. "They are not only a product of this country's economic crisis. There is something sick in Greek society that Golden Dawn expresses," he added, referring to the rise in "Greek-only" blood banks and food rallies organised by the extremists. "They are here to stay. And as of 2014 they are going to be everywhere, with access to state resources because, for sure, they will win seats in municipal elections and, in some towns, place mayors."

Emboldened by success, the neo-Nazis have become ever more visible. Across Greece, party branches have been opened at a record pace, with pupils actively recruited in schools. In villages, black-clad supporters proudly sporting the party's insignia have proliferated, and in the southern Peloponnese, traditionally a stronghold of the right, Golden Dawn graffiti are scrawled over the roads and even rocks that dot the landscape of seaside resorts and archaeological sites.

Racially motivated violence has soared to such a degree that European officials blasted Greece for failing to take adequate action. Nils Muižnieks, the European commissioner for human rights, recently felt moved to point out that democracy was at risk in the birthplace of democracy because of "the upsurge in hate crime and a weak state response". It was vital, he said, that domestic and international anti-racism laws were enforced to crack down on violence that had been "linked to members or supporters, including parliamentarians, of the neo-Nazi political party Golden Dawn".

The Greek police and justice systems – both of which have been accused of colluding with the extremists – also had to be reformed, he said.

Indicative of the far right's growing political grip, the conservatives fear that legislation proposed by their leftwing partners will further alienate traditional voters who have migrated to Golden Dawn in disgust at the political establishment blamed for the country's crisis. The party's spectacular rise has been attributed, in part, to defections from the Greek orthodox church and the army.

"The whole thing is a mess," said Dimitris Psarras, an investigative journalist who has followed the group since its incipiency on the collapse of military rule in 1974. "Even if the law is passed, the message that is conveyed is that democracy is divided in knowing what to do with this neo-Nazi threat." For too long, said Psarras, Greeks had watched with complacency as the far-right group went from strength to strength.

Just as in Weimar Germany, when Hitler's National Socialist German Workers' party rose from obscurity, opponents have remained eerily quiet. Until last week, when the 92-year-old poet Nanos Valaoritis deplored Golden Dawn as "having all the characteristics of the party which led Germany to destruction", few in Greece's political or intellectual elite had been willing to take on the extremists.

The lack of public debate has added to the mystique of an organisation whose workings remain opaque. The local media appears to have missed the story of Golden Dawn. To this day, the party's financial backers and advisers remain shrouded in secrecy.

"Few in the establishment have openly addressed the danger of Golden Dawn and almost no one in the media has looked into it," lamented Psarras. "Only now is it being taken seriously, but in my mind that could be too late."

Capitalising on the deep wells of antipathy towards mainstream politicians, the far right has begun targeting the middle class. In recent months Golden Dawn offices have appeared in affluent areas around Athens.

Greece's petit bourgeoisie of shopkeepers and small businessmen has, like civil servants, suffered most from crushing budget cuts demanded by the EU and IMF in return for emergency aid.

In an atmosphere thick with resentment and rage, immigrants from Asia and Africa have made easy scapegoats, with growing numbers of Greeks blaming foreigners for the country's record rate of unemployment – at over 27%, the worst in the eurozone.

"Anger always wants a target," said the prominent clinical psychologist, Dr Iphigenia Macri. "Golden Dawn provides a target, which is immigrants. It is targeting all that anger and sense of abuse that, collectively, Greek people feel at the hands of the government and state."

In a bid to keep passions at bay among a population that reached boiling point long ago, the government has desperately tried to convince Greeks that, three years after the onset of their worst crisis in modern times, there is "light at the end of the tunnel". Optimism has been propelled by economic progress.

However, the neo-Nazis' rise defies any notion that all is well. "The victorious party is Golden Dawn," said political commentator Nikos Xydakis. "Real life is very removed from the success story the government is selling. The neo-Nazis have succeeded not only in demystifying brutality; they are a reflection of the fear and poverty in this country."

Now the decidedly left of centre Guardian is always more likely to see neo-Nazis than Reds under the beds, but that doesn't make Golden Dawn and other crypto-fascist groups are not on the rise in Europe.

 

[Brad Sallows]

As has been stated - repeatedly - the Euro is going to be the cause of war, not the preventer.

 

[Kirkhill]

Not just the Euro, Brad

- but equally the Schengen Accord and the entire European Project.

It was hard enough to contain this sort of thing in a Europe of STRONG borders and independent countries.  Now, the quarantine opportunities are a whole lot fewer.

One large body, one bad decision by one person, and the whole enterprise becomes a stinking mess.

 

[a_majoor]

Actually, EX MR 13 was far more likely to make my head explode..... >

Most of the points refuting the anti-austerity arguments have been made above, so I will only say the true danger is when attempts to stop deleveraging fail and European societies fall into even deeper chaos. As the example with the Greek "Golden Dawn" party show, the lure of the "Man on the White Horse" is ever close at hand, and people will gladly sell their freedom for security when the situation deteriorates enough.

 

[Kirkhill]

He's Baaaaack!!!  :-*  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

Not just the Euro, Brad

- but equally the Schengen Accord and the entire European Project.

It was hard enough to contain this sort of thing in a Europe of STRONG borders and independent countries.  Now, the quarantine opportunities are a whole lot fewer.

One large body, one bad decision by one person, and the whole enterprise becomes a stinking mess.

And the Dutch throw a spanner into the works according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Financial Times/i]:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5a973412-da86-11e2-a237-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WtRz0BXN

Time for ‘ever closer union’ in Europe over, say Dutch

By Matt Steinglass in Amsterdam and George Parker in London

June 21, 2013

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a973412-da86-11e2-a237-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2WtxGxkPh

The Netherlands, a founding member of the EU, said the time for closer union was over as it proposed an extensive list of powers that should not be given to Brussels.
The initiative by the Dutch coalition government lends support to a drive launched this year by Prime Minister David Cameron to curtail the powers of the EU.

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“The Netherlands is convinced that the time of an ‘ever closer union’ in every possible policy area is behind us,” the Dutch government said. Ever closer union is one of the principles of the EU’s treaties.

The Dutch paper called for all expansions of EU powers to be explicitly grounded in treaty provisions. It put forward 54 specific competencies, from taxation to coastal management, that the Dutch believe should remain at the national level, following the so-called “subsidiarity” principle.

The document reiterated Dutch opposition to several EU-wide financial initiatives, such as a transaction tax and a separate EU budget for countercyclical “shock-absorption”.
But the Dutch stopped short of endorsing Mr Cameron’s call that certain powers be repatriated, a move that would automatically require rewriting the bloc’s treaties. The Hague demanded instead that EU-wide rules be more flexible and that the accretion of more power to Brussels be slowed.

“I find it important that Europe not continue to get more and more tasks, as is happening now,” Mark Rutte, prime minister, told reporters at a press conference. “This is the first time that a member of the EU says, we’re making an inventory of points that should not go to the European level,” he added.

Mr Cameron’s governing Conservative party seized on the report as evidence that Britain was not alone in wanting to rein in the EU’s influence over national life.

“We agree with our Dutch partners on ‘ever closer union’,” said David Lidington, Britain’s Europe minister. “We share their goal of creating a European Union that is more modest and more effective – a European Union in which things are done at a European level only when necessary and at the national level whenever possible.”

Mr Cameron plans to hold an in-out referendum on EU membership in 2017 if he wins the next general election, following what he hopes will be a successful renegotiation of Britain’s EU membership.

For that negotiation to succeed, Mr Cameron will need the support of countries such as the Netherlands, the Nordic countries and, most crucially, Germany.

Mats Persson, director of think-tank Open Europe, said: “Countries like Sweden and Germany are also far more likely to be persuaded down the reform path if the Dutch lead. However, the fact that the Dutch have dismissed an EU treaty change is clearly a problem for Cameron.”

The Netherlands vows in a letter to make an issue of its points of objection at future EU talks.

However, a foreign ministry spokesman, Christophe Kamp, said the initiative would not be raised during the EU summit in Brussels next week but will instead be taken up over a longer term. The Dutch parliament has said it will debate the 54-point list before its summer recess begins in July.

The Netherlands has long been sympathetic to Mr Cameron’s stance on keeping powers at the national level.

The review of powers was part of an initial governing accord presented in November by the Dutch government, a coalition between Mr Rutte’s centre-right Liberal party and the centre-left Labour party.

The Netherlands was among the EU’s founding members but public support for the union has been ebbing for years, starting with rightwing populist politicians such as Geert Wilders in the early 2000s. The euro crisis has intensified public dissatisfaction, with a Gallup Europe poll this month showing Dutch voters evenly divided on whether to exit the EU entirely.

One EU power that the Dutch would like to see loosened is to do with family reunification in immigration cases.

The Netherlands has pushed for years for age and integration restrictions, largely in order to limit a tendency of its ethnic Moroccan and Turkish citizens to import younger brides from their countries of origin. Such rules are hampered by EU-level guidelines.

While the Dutch would like to see action, they emphasised that any changes need to be negotiated by all 27 EU member states.

“We want no unique opt-out for the Netherlands,” Mr Rutte said.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.

The Netherlands are leaders in the EU, as the article suggests countries like Denmark, Finland, Germany and Sweden are likely to consider the Dutch point of view favourably.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The degree to which Europe intrudes into domestic policy and political matters is illustrated in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23029195

The Britons leaving the UK to get their relatives in

By Catrin Nye
BBC Asian Network & Newsnight

British citizens are moving elsewhere in Europe to bypass government immigration regulations and get their relatives into the UK.

People who wish to bring family from overseas but are unable to meet some of the visa requirements are taking advantage of a technicality that means that if they work in another European country for around three months, they can return and be considered under EU rather than British law.

Are they cheating the system or just getting past unfair rules?

Sarah Pitard is a screenwriter from Chicago who had been living in the UK for four years on student visas when she married actor Chris Hall from Swindon, in December 2012.

Continue reading the main story
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Start Quote

Chris Hall and Sarah Pitard
"We're doing this because we have no other options. So we're going to go ahead with it, and if it is a cheat then we will cheat so that we can stay together for the rest of our lives”

Chris Hall
British actor, married to US screenwriter Sarah Pitard
When the couple applied for their marriage visa the UK Border Agency returned their form saying they had not enclosed payment details. The couple maintain that these details had been included, but by that time it was too late for them to re-apply as Sarah's existing visa was about to expire.

"Our visa was refused and when I calculated how many days I was allowed to stay in the UK it turned out we had 48 hours to leave the country, otherwise I would have been banned for 10 years."

"I called Chris who had just left for a big theatre tour, and I said 'you gotta come back - meet me at St. Pancras!'" Sarah recalls. "And we just shot out on the Eurostar and landed in Paris. I had never even been to France."

Under UK law, Chris was only able to bring his wife, a non-European Economic Area (EEA) citizen, in to Britain if he met the £18,600 per annum base earnings requirement.

But UKBA would not count some of Chris' income as it comes from freelance acting work. So despite being married to a British citizen Sarah was not allowed back in to the country.

A friend, though, knew of another way of getting a spouse in to the country.

The method that Chris and Sarah went on to pursue is known as the Surinder Singh route, named after an historic court case. It involves leaving the UK and working in the EEA for around three months.

By exercising your rights under European freedom of movement, your status as a European citizen takes priority over your status as a UK citizen, and when you return to the UK you are allowed to bring your Non-EEA spouse without having to meet the £18,600 minimum earnings requirement which applies to Britons.

In simple terms EEA citizens have stronger migration rights than UK citizens, since they can bring in family members from outside Europe in this way.

"My friend said it's not publicised - it's really hard to find on the UKBA website, you pretty much have to know about it in order to find it," Sarah tells me. "They don't make it easy because they don't really want anyone to know about it."

It is therefore easier for someone from France or Germany living in the UK to bring in their Indian or American partner or relative, and each year around 20,000 non-European family members come into the UK this way.

Sonel Metha from Reading is currently living and working in Dublin in order to bring her parents across from Australia. They were blocked from moving to the UK by new rules on dependent relatives introduced in July 2012.

"It's the only route that's open to us and I think it's left open because the government can't close it," Sonel says.

She tells me that although she knows the route is completely legitimate, she is expecting trouble when she arrives in the UK with her parents and tells the Border Agency official that she is using the Surinder Singh route.

"It will be clear that my parents are coming to settle in the UK. I'm absolutely expecting questions. I'm expecting the immigration officers to deny my right to be able to do that, but I'll have all the evidence with me to show that I have exercised my treaty rights in Ireland," Sonel explains, "and paperwork printed out from the UKBA website which says that this route is something that British citizens can avail of."

Guy Taylor, of the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants, says that as other immigration options are closed off an increasing number of people are using the Surinder Singh route.

"One person I spoke to yesterday is working in an arcade in the south of Germany with his Russian wife," Mr Taylor says.

"There are people who are working in Portugal, Spain, France. A lot of people going to Dublin - obviously because of the language.

"It's hard to estimate exactly how many people are doing this because so many don't declare they're going. There are Facebook groups about people trying to share flats and actually co-ordinating on this."

But he added that a whole new group of people are now falling foul of immigration rules.

"For the first time, we're seeing immigration rules hitting white British people and there's a lot of anger about that because this is an infringement on British people's rights, not just about immigrants."

But David Goodhart, director of think-tank Demos and author of The British Dream, a book about post-war immigration, believes the Surinder Singh route should be closed.

"I would regard that as a loophole. When different European countries are trying to place restrictions on the number of people coming from outside Europe, it seems bizarre that those people who are not British citizens find it easier to bring people in from outside the EU than British citizens," Mr Goodhart tells me.

"To have rules about controlling people coming into the country from outside Europe, just made fun of by a European regulation - it should be stopped."

The immigration minister, Mark Harper, declined to be interviewed for BBC Asian Network/Newsnight's report and instead issued a statement saying:

"The EEA family permit is not a 'loophole'. It reflects the current requirements of EU law and would not apply if someone went abroad to a member state for a short time just in order to circumvent the immigration rules. An application will be refused if it cannot be proved the British citizen was genuinely engaged in employment."

European Economic Area
In migration terms EEA citizens have stronger rights than UK citizens

This somewhat contradicts the UKBA website which says that it does not matter if the only reason a British national goes to another member state is to exercise an economic Treaty right so that they can come back to the UK with their family members.

Those using the route argue they have been forced into a corner. In Paris Chris Hall says he is not in the least ashamed:

"We're doing this because we have no other options. So we're going to go ahead with it and if it is a cheat then we will cheat so that we can stay together for the rest of our lives."

I'm not arguing for or against the rules that the UK, a functioning liberal democracy, enacts to manage immigration but is it right that Europe can write laws that negate a sovereign state's will considered policies? Did the Brits really understand that they were signing on to a federal system in which they start to look at lot like Quebec within Canada? Did the Europeans, themselves, really understand what they created in 1957?

 

[Kirkhill]

The degree to which Europe intrudes into domestic policy and political matters is illustrated in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23029195

I'm not arguing for or against the rules that the UK, a functioning liberal democracy, enacts to manage immigration but is it right that Europe can write laws that negate a sovereign state's will considered policies?

NO!

Did the Brits really understand that they were signing on to a federal system in which they start to look at lot like Quebec within Canada?

NO!!

Did the Europeans, themselves, really understand what they created in 1957?

NOT A BLOODY CHANCE!!!  -  TO THE PUBS!!!

Oops.  Sorry.  Got carried away.  Your questions were rhetorical, weren't they?  ;D

But they do rather go to the heart of the matter.  Who is in charge?  The man at home in his castle?  Or one of the Anointed?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Oops.  Sorry.  Got carried away.  Your questions were rhetorical, weren't they?  ;D

But they do rather go to the heart of the matter.  Who is in charge?  The man at home in his castle?  Or one of the Anointed?

Yes, I guess they do ... I was chatting (exchanging E-mails in near real time) with a friend in the UK who likes (and hates) my EU=Canada and UK=Quebec meme (it's a meme because it is, ever so slowly, spreading). I told her that UK=Quebec because it is the spoiled child of the federation that wants out but is unwilling to pay the price of real independence.

 

[a_majoor]

Yes, I guess they do ... I was chatting (exchanging E-mails in near real time) with a friend in the UK who likes (and hates) my EU=Canada and UK=Quebec meme (it's a meme because it is, ever so slowly, spreading). I told her that UK=Quebec because it is the spoiled child of the federation that wants out but is unwilling to pay the price of real independence.

Although given the current political climate/political establishment in the UK there is little reson to expect dramatic change, there are three possible outs for the UK.

1. Re energize the Commonwealth. The entire point of getting involved with the EU was to create linkages to a vast market for British goods and services; the Brits didn't read the fine print. The Commonwealth has the ability to act as a similar sort of grouping, with the bonus that Commonwealth members tend to share common ideas about laws, languages etc. Since the organization already exists, it is more a matter of working on existing institutions.

2. Join NAFTA (renamed the North Atlantic Free Trade Alliance). While not as wide ranging as the Commonwealth, it does grant access to the American Market (still one of the largest in the world, and access to Canada and Mexico as well. This turns the attention of the UK to the Atlantic rather than the Continent.

3. Create "The Anglosphere" as a formal or semi formal association. This is an even bigger project than reenergizing the Commonwealth or joining NAFTA, since it essentially encompasses both ideas. Since the Anglosphere is more based on common ideas than shared history or geography, there is the potential to incorporate "honourary" members who share similar values and institutions based on Classical Liberal ideas.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Just what Europe needs: EU gives Serbia green light to start membership talks. That, adding another weak state, will make things better.

 

[Kirkhill]

Meanwhile, back in Viking country: Iceland Pulls Bid to Join EU.

Who's your money on?  The Vikings or the Serbs?

 

[Edward Campbell]

A quick lesson in Eurozone Economics is making the rounds online, so....

Some years ago a small rural town in Spain twinned with a similar town
in Greece. The Mayor of the Greek town visited the Spanish town. When
he saw the palatial mansion belonging to the Spanish mayor he wondered
how he could afford such a house.

The Spaniard said; "You see that bridge over there? The EU gave us a
grant to build a two-lane bridge, but by building a single lane bridge
with traffic lights at either end this house could be built".

The following year the Spaniard visited the Greek town. He was simply
amazed at the Greek Mayor's house, gold taps, marble floors, it was
marvelous.

When he asked how this could be afforded the Greek said; "You see that
bridge over there?"

The Spaniard replied; "No."

But the chickens might be coming home to roost, according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/greece-has-3-days-to-deliver-or-face-consequences-eu-officials/article12915656/#dashboard/follows/

Greece has 3 days to deliver or face consequences: EU officials

BRUSSELS/ATHENS — Reuters

Published Tuesday, Jul. 02 2013

Greece has three days to reassure Europe and the International Monetary Fund it can deliver on conditions attached to its international bailout in order to receive the next tranche of aid, four euro zone officials said on Tuesday.

The lenders are unhappy with progress Greece has made towards reforming its public sector, a senior euro zone official involved in the negotiations said, while another said they might suspend an inspection visit they resumed on Monday.

Athens, which has about €2.2-billion of bonds to redeem in August, needs the talks to conclude successfully. If they fail, the International Monetary Fund might have to withdraw from the €240-billion bailout to avoid violating its own rules, which require a borrower to be financed a year ahead.

That would heighten the risk that concerted efforts by policy makers over the past nine months to keep a lid on the euro zone crisis could unravel, at a time when tensions are rising in other countries on the region’s periphery.

Portugal’s Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar, the architect of its austerity drive under an EU/IMF bailout, resigned on Monday in a potential blow to his country’s planned exit from an EU-IMF rescue program.

Political tension has also increased in Italy, where Prime Minister Enrico Letta called a government meeting after a coalition partner threatened to withdraw.

Athens and its creditors resumed talks on Monday to unlock €8.1-billion ($10.6-billion U.S.) of rescue loans, after a two-week break during which the government almost collapsed over redundancies at state broadcaster ERT.

“All agreed that Greece has to deliver (pledges) before the Eurogroup on Monday. That’s why they must present again on Friday,” a second source told Reuters.

Euro zone finance ministers are scheduled to meet on July 8 and discuss the situation in Greece, which is in its sixth year of recession and has seen unemployment surge to record highs.

“It is a very difficult negotiation,” a senior Greek official participating in the talks said. “We’re moving fast to wrap up as many issues as possible a soon as possible.”

But Greece’s financial overseers – the IMF, the euro zone and the European Central Bank – were unlikely to be able to conclude their review in July and might need to suspend the visit and resume it in September, a senior euro zone official said on condition of anonymity.

Representatives of the EU-IMF-ECB “troika” have been holding serial meetings with government ministers in Athens, struggling to agree on a host of outstanding issues.

If talks are not concluded by the middle of month, Athens risked missing the instalment, the Greek official added.

Athens has missed a June deadline to place 12,500 state workers into a “mobility scheme”, under which they are transferred or dismissed within a year.

A shortfall of more than €1-billion has emerged at state-run health insurer EOPYY, meaning automatic spending cuts may have to be agreed to bring it back on an even keel.

Athens and the troika are also at odds over an unpopular property tax and a sales tax for restaurants.

The government plans to ask its creditors to lower this year’s privatization target of €2.6-billion after failing to find a buyer for natural gas company DEPA.

The beleaguered government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has ruled out imposing any new austerity measures on a population that is going through the sixth year of recession.

Unemployment has hit a record 27 per cent and Greeks have lost about a third of their disposable income at an average as a result of bailout-imposed austerity policies.

But, I will never underestimate the capacity of the continental Europeans to delude themselves. They were, by the mid 20th century, scared to death of themselves; they understood that the contest between France/Roman Europe and Germany/Mittel Europa could only end in one of two ways: a series of increasingly savage and costly wars until one or the other - most likely the other - won, or some sort of union as advocated by Jean Monnet (France), Robert Schuman (Luxembourg, Germany and, untilately, France), and Paul-Henri Spaak (Belgium). Well they got the latter, not because they ever really wanted to be a union, a de facto federal super-state, but, rather, because the only other option was even less palatable. But nor, give the problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and even France, it may self-destruct. But sensible self-destruction or, at least, a serious restructuring of the Eurozone and, indeed, the EU, itself, will not happen until the continental Europeans have exhausted all the bad choices, one of which is to continue to delude themselves about the fiscal probity and basic honesty of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and France.

But dissolving the union will not end the France/Roman Europe vs Germany/Mittel Europa rivalry which Mittel Europa is almost certain to win.