CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[lenaitch]

Mods: I posted this in the election thread as well because it's something I felt could have gone in either thread.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, tripling down. It's almost like she's trying to annihilate any chance the CPC might have.

Danielle Smith and Ben Shapiro discuss Canada electing ‘solid allies’ to Trump at Florida event

On stage at a PragerU fundraiser, the Alberta premier, under fire for allegedly encouraging U.S. leaders to influence Canadian politics, said, 'I come in peace.'

www.nationalobserver.com

Alt: https://archive.ph/URUoJ

It seems China and India might not be our only concerns for foreign election interference.

 

[brihard]

It seems China and India might not be our only concerns for foreign election interference.

Important to differentiate between ‘influence’ and ‘interference’. ‘Influence’ is generally lawful because it’s overt and aboveboard, even if not particularly welcome. Lobbying, meeting with diaspora groups, etc.

Interference is where something is clandestine, deceptive, subversive, or otherwise done in a manner contrary to the security interests of the state.

Canada has recently strengthened criminal provisions around the interference part of it, and once the foreign agents registry is up, that will force influence activity on behalf of a foreign state to generally be overt in order to be lawful.

 

[JLB50]

Mods: I posted this in the election thread as well because it's something I felt could have gone in either thread.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, tripling down. It's almost like she's trying to annihilate any chance the CPC might have.

Danielle Smith and Ben Shapiro discuss Canada electing ‘solid allies’ to Trump at Florida event

On stage at a PragerU fundraiser, the Alberta premier, under fire for allegedly encouraging U.S. leaders to influence Canadian politics, said, 'I come in peace.'

www.nationalobserver.com

Alt: https://archive.ph/URUoJ

The Conservatives have a long history of shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[OldSolduer]

It seems China and India might not be our only concerns for foreign election interference.

I think most nations indulge in a bit of foreign interference every so often.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I think most nations indulge in a bit of foreign interference every so often.

The Canadian Gov is running an Ad campaign in the US right now to counter the current US Admins moves against us.

We all do influence. It's interference that's the problem.

Hell, a good part of my job is to influence officers to make smart choices

 

[brihard]

The Canadian Gov is running an Ad campaign in the US right now to counter the current US Admins moves against us.

We all do influence. It's interference that's the problem.

Hell, a good part of my job is to influence officers to make smart choices

Great example.

 

[HavokFour]

Some cracks might be finally starting to appear.

U.S. senators push back against ‘fake emergency’ Trump relied on to justify Canadian tariffs

The April 1 vote will force senators to make clear to the White House – and to Americans – where they stand

www.theglobeandmail.com

Alt: https://archive.ph/0KV8l

 

[ModlrMike]

Even if everything were to be reversed overnight, it would take many years for the relationship to return to baseline.

 

[brihard]

Some cracks might be finally starting to appear.

U.S. senators push back against ‘fake emergency’ Trump relied on to justify Canadian tariffs

The April 1 vote will force senators to make clear to the White House – and to Americans – where they stand

www.theglobeandmail.com

Alt: https://archive.ph/0KV8l

There will be a vote in the Senate on the resolution tomorrow, and Kaine may have the necessary votes from a handful of Republicans. I don’t know the mechanism after that; whether it needs to go to the House for a vote as well to invalidate the emergency. If it does, well, the Republicans in the House as a lot are whipped cowards. But with Trump’s tariff announcement tomorrow, we would have some time to identify house Republicans whose districts are competitive, and also export a lot to Canada. Pick eight or ten such districts and shove retaliatory tariffs up their ass in hopes that four or five of them blink

 

[Blackadder1916]

There will be a vote in the Senate on the resolution tomorrow, and Kaine may have the necessary votes from a handful of Republicans. I don’t know the mechanism after that; whether it needs to go to the House for a vote as well to invalidate the emergency. If it does, well, the Republicans in the House as a lot are whipped cowards. But with Trump’s tariff announcement tomorrow, we would have some time to identify house Republicans whose districts are competitive, and also export a lot to Canada. Pick eight or ten such districts and shove retaliatory tariffs up their ass in hopes that four or five of them blink

The next steps for Congress

---

President Trump’s Use of the National Emergency Act and Possible Congressional Next Steps | Insights | Mayer Brown

Recently, President Donald Trump issued three Executive Orders (EOs) to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

www.mayerbrown.com

. . . In addition to the president’s authority to declare a national emergency under the NEA, Congress also has a role to play. Specifically, under the NEA, Congress may terminate a national emergency through a joint resolution, which proceeds as follows:

1. If a Member of Congress introduces a joint resolution proposing the termination of a national emergency, the resolution is sent to the appropriate committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the House, termination resolutions have previously been referred to the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, which has jurisdiction over “[f]ederal management of emergencies and natural disasters.”5 The Senate’s referral process varies, as it appears to be influenced by the subject matter of the emergency powers invoked by the president in the national emergency declaration.6
2. The respective committees report their recommendations within 15 calendar days, unless otherwise determined by the chamber.
3. The joint resolution becomes the pending business of the chamber in question and is voted on within three calendar days unless otherwise determined by that chamber.
4. Upon the joint resolution’s passing in either the House of Representatives or the Senate, the joint resolution is referred to the appropriate committee of the other chamber and is reported with recommendations within 15 calendar days. The joint resolution must then be voted on within three calendar days, unless otherwise determined by the house.
5. Finally, if any disagreement exists between the House of Representatives and the Senate with respect to a passed joint resolution, conferees are promptly appointed and the committee of conference must file a report with respect to the joint resolution within six calendar days after the day on which the conferees on the part of the Senate and the House are appointed. The report is acted on by both chambers within six calendar days. In the event the conferees are unable to agree within 48 hours, they report back to their respective houses in disagreement.

Any joint resolution passed by Congress would be privileged, and, accordingly, receive a vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Any passed joint resolution would be subject to a presidential veto. If the resolution is vetoed, Congress would need a supermajority (2/3) vote to override the veto to pass the resolution.
. . .

---

 

[brihard]

The next steps for Congress

---

President Trump’s Use of the National Emergency Act and Possible Congressional Next Steps | Insights | Mayer Brown

Recently, President Donald Trump issued three Executive Orders (EOs) to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

www.mayerbrown.com

. . . In addition to the president’s authority to declare a national emergency under the NEA, Congress also has a role to play. Specifically, under the NEA, Congress may terminate a national emergency through a joint resolution, which proceeds as follows:

1. If a Member of Congress introduces a joint resolution proposing the termination of a national emergency, the resolution is sent to the appropriate committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the House, termination resolutions have previously been referred to the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, which has jurisdiction over “[f]ederal management of emergencies and natural disasters.”5 The Senate’s referral process varies, as it appears to be influenced by the subject matter of the emergency powers invoked by the president in the national emergency declaration.6
2. The respective committees report their recommendations within 15 calendar days, unless otherwise determined by the chamber.
3. The joint resolution becomes the pending business of the chamber in question and is voted on within three calendar days unless otherwise determined by that chamber.
4. Upon the joint resolution’s passing in either the House of Representatives or the Senate, the joint resolution is referred to the appropriate committee of the other chamber and is reported with recommendations within 15 calendar days. The joint resolution must then be voted on within three calendar days, unless otherwise determined by the house.
5. Finally, if any disagreement exists between the House of Representatives and the Senate with respect to a passed joint resolution, conferees are promptly appointed and the committee of conference must file a report with respect to the joint resolution within six calendar days after the day on which the conferees on the part of the Senate and the House are appointed. The report is acted on by both chambers within six calendar days. In the event the conferees are unable to agree within 48 hours, they report back to their respective houses in disagreement.

Any joint resolution passed by Congress would be privileged, and, accordingly, receive a vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Any passed joint resolution would be subject to a presidential veto. If the resolution is vetoed, Congress would need a supermajority (2/3) vote to override the veto to pass the resolution.
. . .

---

Oh, well that’s that then. No way those feckless clowns will vote to override a veto even if it gets the necessary bare majority to move forward.

 

[QV]

Trump gets support from an unlikely place?

Democrat rep vows to work with Trump on key part of tariff plan: 'Hoping that I can help'

At least one House Democrat is showing some optimism for President Donald Trump's plan on tariffs.

www.foxnews.com

 

[dapaterson]

Hell, a good part of my job is to influence officers to make smart choices

So it's all your fault?

 

[Halifax Tar]

So it's all your fault?

lol Dont blame me I haven't graduated from the tactical level yet lol

 

[dapaterson]

lol Dont blame me I haven't graduated from the tactical level yet lol

You must be new here. We can only blame very junior folks, never those in senior positions of responsibility.

 

[The Bread Guy]

You must be new here. We can only blame very junior folks, never those in senior positions of responsibility.

Jean Boyle enters the chat …

 

[Maxman1]

You must be new here. We can only blame very junior folks, never those in senior positions of responsibility.

"My mistake, your fault."

 

[Cloud Cover]

The next steps for Congress

---

President Trump’s Use of the National Emergency Act and Possible Congressional Next Steps | Insights | Mayer Brown

Recently, President Donald Trump issued three Executive Orders (EOs) to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

www.mayerbrown.com

. . . In addition to the president’s authority to declare a national emergency under the NEA, Congress also has a role to play. Specifically, under the NEA, Congress may terminate a national emergency through a joint resolution, which proceeds as follows:

1. If a Member of Congress introduces a joint resolution proposing the termination of a national emergency, the resolution is sent to the appropriate committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the House, termination resolutions have previously been referred to the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, which has jurisdiction over “[f]ederal management of emergencies and natural disasters.”5 The Senate’s referral process varies, as it appears to be influenced by the subject matter of the emergency powers invoked by the president in the national emergency declaration.6
2. The respective committees report their recommendations within 15 calendar days, unless otherwise determined by the chamber.
3. The joint resolution becomes the pending business of the chamber in question and is voted on within three calendar days unless otherwise determined by that chamber.
4. Upon the joint resolution’s passing in either the House of Representatives or the Senate, the joint resolution is referred to the appropriate committee of the other chamber and is reported with recommendations within 15 calendar days. The joint resolution must then be voted on within three calendar days, unless otherwise determined by the house.
5. Finally, if any disagreement exists between the House of Representatives and the Senate with respect to a passed joint resolution, conferees are promptly appointed and the committee of conference must file a report with respect to the joint resolution within six calendar days after the day on which the conferees on the part of the Senate and the House are appointed. The report is acted on by both chambers within six calendar days. In the event the conferees are unable to agree within 48 hours, they report back to their respective houses in disagreement.

Any joint resolution passed by Congress would be privileged, and, accordingly, receive a vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Any passed joint resolution would be subject to a presidential veto. If the resolution is vetoed, Congress would need a supermajority (2/3) vote to override the veto to pass the resolution.
. . .

---

The National Emergency could also constitute a trigger for Force Majeure in a large number of commercial contracts. I’m not sure how that might play out between contracting parties performing bi-national and interdependent work for defence contracts, but you can bet Carney has tasked lawyers with looking at that.

 

[Kirkhill]

Why this is an inflection and not just a disturbance.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/04/03/robert_lighthizer_trump_is_right_to_fix_our_broken_trade_system.html

Robert Lighthizer - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Carlson:

What about our current system needs to be changed? Why is it important to do this, to institute tariffs, to rethink trade?

Lighthizer:

has the system failed? And to me, it's an emphatic yes.

this system doesn't work, we have this giant transfer of wealth from the United States overseas. And that is in the form of trade deficits. And the way the system is supposed to work, no one should have large trade deficits for long periods of time.

that's a transfer of wealth from Americans overseas in return for current consumption. And it has nothing to do with economics. It's entirely the result of industrial policy of other people and our being defenseless.

There's a data point called the International Investment Position of a country. And that is how much, for us, all Americans own throughout the entire world versus how much everyone else owns here. That number is a negative $23.5 trillion. And if you said, what was it 20 years ago, it was probably a negative $3 trillion. So we have transferred about $20 trillion worth of our national wealth, and I would say the future income of that wealth overseas in return for current consumption.

n 2003, Warren Buffett did an article on this point, and he was worried about the trade deficit because it was leading to a negative net International Investment Position of Americans. And it was basically transferring. Well, it's the same thing I am.

When he was worried about it in 2003, the number was a negative $2.3 trillion. So since he sort of raised the red flag on this and said, we've got to get back to balanced trade, the situation has gotten geometrically worse.

this system has really slowed economic growth in the United States.

Which brings to mind Herbert Stein's proposal.

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”​

― Herbert Stein, What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics, and Life

And Margaret Thatcher's corollary

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”​

― Margaret Thatcher

....

It doesn't really matter, the rights and wrongs of the economic situation.

The problem is that there is a substantial body of thought in the US that believes the US is in economic trouble and that change, and significant change at that, is necessary.

That is where we are now.

This is not just Orange Man and flights of fancy. This is a supported position that has weaponized Trump as an agent of change, as a disruptor.

We need to look to ourselves and revert back to Adam Smith's primary proposition - at least in my opinion.

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages. Nobody but a beggar chuses to depend chiefly upon the benevolence of his fellow-citizens. Even a beggar does not depend upon it entirely.

To believe in a particular order of things being maintained, liberal or otherwise, is to depend chiefly on the benevolence of others.

 

[The Bread Guy]

On the plus side, Canadian dollar's been bubbly the past week or so.

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

CAD to USD currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Canadian Dollar to US Dollar allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.

www.xe.com