2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Remius]

Suggest more than simple recognition. Probably offer Puerto Rico status.

So become a state with no voting member in congress or electoral votes for the president. Doubtful.

 

[brihard]

Suggest more than simple recognition. Probably offer Puerto Rico status.

Neglected territory with no effective legislative representation? That’ll certainly fix things.

 

[QV]

So become a state with no voting member in congress or electoral votes for the president. Doubtful.

Who knows. But Alberta with the best demographics in the country and all the energy and food production is indeed a healthy prize. It also makes the land bridge to Alaska that much less. I wouldn't ignore the possibility.

 

[Remius]

Who knows. But Alberta with the best demographics in the country and all the energy and food production is indeed a healthy prize. It also makes the land bridge to Alaska that much less. I wouldn't ignore the possibility.

A land bridge to Alaska would almost double the trip and still require a border crossing. Not realistic to think that would be a feature.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Interesting presumption. Generally international recognition is key to a successful separation. It is doubtful that the US would recognize an independent Alberta without a negotiated exit.

It's more than Alberta.

Also 5 years ago I would have agreed with you.

Now, with the political weaponization of OPEC and it's manipulation of the market now it would be a fool of country to give up two provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan and the resources they bring.

 

[Remius]

It's more than Alberta.

Also 5 years ago I would have agreed with you.

Now, with the political weaponization of OPEC and it's manipulation of the market now it would be a fool of country to give up two provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan and the resources they bring.

Not supported by international law and or precedence.

Also the support for joining the US is lower than the support for separation. Until those numbers reach close to 50% it isn’t much of a reality. Is it loud? Yes. Will it get louder if Trudeau wins? Yes. But the numbers and data isn’t there,

The top option for most albertans and westerners is replacing the PM.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Not supported by international law and or precedence.

Also the support for joining the US is lower than the support for separation. Until those numbers reach close to 50% it isn’t much of a reality. Is it loud? Yes. Will it get louder if Trudeau wins? Yes. But the numbers and data isn’t there,

The top option for most albertans and westerners is replacing the PM.

I'm not talking about a JT win.

The scenario I predicted is the CPC wins a weak minority, but the LPC/NDP/Greens form a coalition and the GG allows them to form a government.

This all comes down to a lack of proper representation. If we would fix this, it would fix so much.

 

[suffolkowner]

I'm not talking about a JT win.

The scenario I predicted is the CPC wins a weak minority, but the LPC/NDP/Greens form a coalition and the GG allows them to form a government.

This all comes down to a lack of proper representation. If we would fix this, it would fix so much.

might depend on the BQ?

If JT can gain/keep the confidence of the HofC then he has it. Im sure there would be lots of noise over it though if the CPC has the most votes and the most seats and doesnt form the government

 

[Brad Sallows]

Interesting parallels. American revolution began with big dissatisfaction over taxes. Alberta is largely dissatisfied over equalization payments which is just a tax on Alberta and other payers.

Equalization is not a tax on any province.

 

[Kat Stevens]

Equalization is not a tax on any province.

Yeah, it's more of a tithe .

 

[QV]

Equalization is not a tax on any province.

Let me rephrase my comment then:

Interesting parallels. American revolution began with big dissatisfaction over taxes money being used elsewhere excessively. Alberta is largely dissatisfied over equalization payments which is just a tax on Alberta and other payers money being used elsewhere excessively.

Let me add a note on that; I doubt most Albertans are opposed to equalization as a concept, they are just annoyed that so many other provinces actively thwart Alberta's economic efforts which allows it to be in the position to contribute as much as it does.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Let me rephrase my comment then:

Interesting parallels. American revolution began with big dissatisfaction over taxes money being used elsewhere excessively. Alberta is largely dissatisfied over equalization payments which is just a tax on Alberta and other payers money being used elsewhere excessively.

Let me add a note on that; I doubt most Albertans are opposed to equalization as a concept, they are just annoyed that so many other provinces actively thwart Alberta's economic efforts which allows it to be in the position to contribute as much as it does.

I can see their point. Other provinces seem more than happy to take the equalization payments, and are also happy to block thins like the energy east pipeline.

Good link for info.

Unpacking Canada’s Equalization Payments for 2018-19 | The School of Public Policy

www.policyschool.ca

 

[Remius]

I can see their point. Other provinces seem more than happy to take the equalization payments, and are also happy to block thins like the energy east pipeline.

Good link for info.

Unpacking Canada’s Equalization Payments for 2018-19 | The School of Public Policy

www.policyschool.ca

Interesting link.

Embedded is an article about misconceptions .

Don’t blame equalization for Alberta’s fiscal mess

What matters is not a province’s actual budget balance, but its economy. And Alberta’s is the strongest, by far, and therefore so too is its ability to raise revenue

www.theglobeandmail.com

A bit dated though.

Also I found this interesting.

But why does Alberta have a deficit if its fiscal capacity is so high? Simple: its tax rates are low. To illustrate this, I plot Alberta’s actual revenue as a percentage of what could be raised if each province had tax rates equal to the current national average. Alberta is, by far, the lowest tax jurisdiction (nearly 30% below the national average) while Quebec is the highest (nearly 30% above). Alberta’s deficit is a choice, and largely unrelated to the federal equalization program.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Yes, for centuries people understood the unwisdom/unfairness of binding the mouths of the kine that tread the grain. Not so much now.

 

[QV]

Yes, for centuries people understood the unwisdom/unfairness of binding the mouths of the kine that tread the grain. Not so much now.

Why is that wisdom lost today? You'd like to believe it's not on purpose, but...

 

[Brad Sallows]

Just basic human nature. People don't grasp interconnections much beyond their own life. They can be charitable towards people in their immediate circle, and see cause/effect interdependencies there. Outside that, not so much. Also, political policy is a convenient mask for plain ordinary dislike and hatred of different cultures.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Interesting link.

Embedded is an article about misconceptions .

Don’t blame equalization for Alberta’s fiscal mess

What matters is not a province’s actual budget balance, but its economy. And Alberta’s is the strongest, by far, and therefore so too is its ability to raise revenue

www.theglobeandmail.com

A bit dated though.

Also I found this interesting.

But why does Alberta have a deficit if its fiscal capacity is so high? Simple: its tax rates are low. To illustrate this, I plot Alberta’s actual revenue as a percentage of what could be raised if each province had tax rates equal to the current national average. Alberta is, by far, the lowest tax jurisdiction (nearly 30% below the national average) while Quebec is the highest (nearly 30% above). Alberta’s deficit is a choice, and largely unrelated to the federal equalization program.

As of Nov 2022 Alberta was forecasting a $12.3 billion surplus. Also making the largest ever single payment against their provincial debt.

Alberta Government maintains forecasted $12.3 billion surplus

EDMONTON, AB - The provincial government says Alberta remains in a strong financial position.Premier Danielle ...

lethbridgenewsnow.com

Alberta’s real GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.

The Conference Board of Canada said in an August 2022 report that Alberta and Saskatchewan were expected to lead the country’s economic growth with the oil and gas sector playing a large part in that.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Yeah, in between periods of silence when AB is doing well, they get the Nelson Muntz "HA-ha" from some Canadians and a bunch of not-in-anger-but-in-sorrow-well-meaning advice when they experience a hiccup.

 

[QV]

As of Nov 2022 Alberta was forecasting a $12.3 billion surplus. Also making the largest ever single payment against their provincial debt.

Alberta Government maintains forecasted $12.3 billion surplus

EDMONTON, AB - The provincial government says Alberta remains in a strong financial position.Premier Danielle ...

lethbridgenewsnow.com

Alberta’s real GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.

The Conference Board of Canada said in an August 2022 report that Alberta and Saskatchewan were expected to lead the country’s economic growth with the oil and gas sector playing a large part in that.

A ton of new money going to improve healthcare as well.

 

[TacticalTea]

I don't think it would ever come to it, just saying if it did, I wouldn't bet on the city kids and office workers, and a lot of posturing about Angry Westerners ignores our collective history.

A democratic resolution is the way to go, but it's ridiculous to think that only applies provincially and you can ignore the sovereign nation agreements with the FN bands that predate Canada and are part of our foundational constitution. A huge amount of that land overlaps with a huge amount of natural resources, so separating gets really unattractive if that's carved out, which is why understanding how a federation works is pretty important. And frankly if the FNs took their land back they'd probably get more direct benefits out of it then what they do now.

This reality largely makes QC sovereignty ridiculous in practice, and is similar for pretty much all provinces and territories. Similarly Federal debt is also divisible, so they wouldn't be starting fresh.

In geopolitics, one ought to be wary of statements implying automaticity.

I'll piggyback on what @Remius said and add that nothing in established international law provides that the seceding polity has the least bit of responsibility for federal debt. You don't give your kids a portion of your debt when they leave the house. Moreover, the Constitution does not provide for separation. As such, the process is extra-constitutional and what matters most, as he rightly put it, is international recognition, not legalese.

In the last century, scores of nations have obtained their independence, many of which in more complicated circumstances than Alberta or Quebec find themselves in currently. Nobody would now pretend their cause was ridiculous.

Both provinces have the ability to negotiate with their respective aboriginal communities. There is no reason to believe they would not do so, as it provides an opportunity for both to improve their condition. UDIs aren't generally a great idea in the modern era.

"Understanding how a federation works" as you say, also means understanding what keeps the federated polities in, and that what works for one may not work for the other. A skill that seems awfully lacking in our current government, driving up resentment towards the center and, incidentally, separatism.

In short, there is no significant internal obstacle to the feasibility of provincial secession from Canada other than simultaneous popular demand and political will (See 1998 SCC Reference relating to secession, in which the Court recognizes the possibility in spite of apparent legal hurdles, but prescribes a democratic and negotiated process). It is best to argue on the merits rather than technicality.