TacticalTea
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Ahhh uhhhh
Orange is the new black
hm
Orange is the new black
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A Deeply Fractured US
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Not since the American Revolution.
lenaitch
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No doubt exclusive interview offers and maybe book deals are already being discussed.
Some news outlets are saying sentencing hearings "begin" on July 11th. I suspect there will be more that one and I suspect this will all be waylaid by an appeal.
I expect any sentence, if and when it comes, to be relatively inconsequential.
Agreed. This case was never gonna be much of a big deal in the strict criminal justice sense.
Brad Sallows
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Wouldn't have made sense. The 34 counts arose because there were 34 payments (transactions) to settle a single item. There is no dividing the underlying NDA payout into "this part of it is whatever the underlying crime is, and this part is not".
Brad Sallows
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Polls consistently showed a drop in support when people were asked if they would still vote for him if he were a convicted felon.Looking forward to his rise in the polls.
If poll results don't show a drop in his support in the next two to four weeks to match those earlier polls, prognostication is going to be really hard for the people paid to make the guesses.
Brad Sallows
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RFK Jr winning? If Trump takes a big enough hit to start a preference cascade, RFK Jr is the only viable non-Biden.
Unless they try to dust off Haley and throw her back in the mix. “Viable” is straining pretty hard to apply itself to RFK. Haley is still objectively a decent Republican candidate. While she suspended campaigning, I think she’s still legally eligible.
Not a fun conundrum for the Republicans, but they also brought this entirely upon themselves.
Honestly, I think Trump not winning the election will be scarier in terms of the consequences of a polarized population within the US (thoughts and feelings about Trump aside)
It'll be an interesting year for sure!
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Always bet on Red.
TacticalTea
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With a garden hose and enough booze, any bed can be a waterbed.
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The cover up of the Stormy Daniels payoffs during the election campaign.
It wasn’t really the payoffs themselves, it was the acknowledgment by Trump and his staff that they needed to cover it up so it didn’t become public during the election when one was trying to run on Christian Values.
New York State law 17-152, Conspiracy to Promote or Prevent Election. NYS Open Legislation | NYSenate.gov
Good breakdown of how this worked in the context of this trial here: What is the New York election law at the center of Trump's hush money trial?
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Honestly if the Jan 6th charges and the Classified Documents cases moved forward at a reasonable rate, those are the important ones that the public should change some opinions on DJT.
Honestly this was low hanging fruit but in the grand scheme won’t matter much.
TacticalTea
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That seems like a creative application of the law.
I think a reasonable person would conclude that a hush money payment is not a campaign expense, and that filing it as such would probably result in fraud charges.
Kind of a catch-22 no?
Do we know if there's any precedent on this or was it a novel interpretation?
Not trying to re-litigate the whole thing here, just trying to wrap my head around this.
TacticalTea
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Agreed.
Ultimately I don't think he can be held responsible for Jan 6th, but the classified docs saga is much more damning than any other case in my mind.
The federal election obstruction trial has, generally, two prongs.
One contends that Trump bears criminal responsibility for conspiring to, and actually obstructing the official proceeding of counting the electoral votes. This will include the events of the failed insurrection at the Capitol but also the bigger behind the scenes conniving and conspiring leading up to same.
The other prong is what I’ll call the ‘administrative’ conspiracy to defraud the United States; this includes in particular the phony elector schemes in multiple states and the repeated false claims of election fraud in furtherance of same.
The four charges are not all dependent on each other, and capture multiple distinct events and alleged offences. The eventual jury could easily find guilt on some but not on others.
I agree with you that the classified documents one is the most damning. It’s also farthest from the ability of the general public to wrap their heads around due to the heavy involvement of material most people will never see or even realize exists. That trial will be something and I’ll be following it as closely as I’m able.
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