A Deeply Fractured US

[TacticalTea]

Ahhh uhhhh

Orange is the new black

hm

 

[Kilted]

Another thought that occurred to me- he’s now eligible to immigrate to Australia, right?

Not since the American Revolution.

 

[Kilted]

I actually don't know what is a scarier though: Trump winning the election, or Trump not winning the election.

 

[lenaitch]

I was thinking guilty on some counts, not guilty on others. Also surprised they reached a decision so quickly, I would have thought another day or so. One of the things about the US system is the jurors can speak out about what happened in the jury room; it will be interesting to hear what they have to say..

No doubt exclusive interview offers and maybe book deals are already being discussed.

Some news outlets are saying sentencing hearings "begin" on July 11th. I suspect there will be more that one and I suspect this will all be waylaid by an appeal.

I expect any sentence, if and when it comes, to be relatively inconsequential.

 

[brihard]

No doubt exclusive interview offers and maybe book deals are already being discussed.

Some news outlets are saying sentencing hearings "begin" on July 11th. I suspect there will be more that one and I suspect this will all be waylaid by an appeal.

I expect any sentence, if and when it comes, to be relatively inconsequential.

Agreed. This case was never gonna be much of a big deal in the strict criminal justice sense.

 

[Remius]

People waiting at his home chanting Lock Him Up lol.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I was thinking guilty on some counts, not guilty on others.

Wouldn't have made sense. The 34 counts arose because there were 34 payments (transactions) to settle a single item. There is no dividing the underlying NDA payout into "this part of it is whatever the underlying crime is, and this part is not".

 

[Brad Sallows]

Looking forward to his rise in the polls.

Polls consistently showed a drop in support when people were asked if they would still vote for him if he were a convicted felon.

If poll results don't show a drop in his support in the next two to four weeks to match those earlier polls, prognostication is going to be really hard for the people paid to make the guesses.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I actually don't know what is a scarier though: Trump winning the election, or Trump not winning the election.

RFK Jr winning? If Trump takes a big enough hit to start a preference cascade, RFK Jr is the only viable non-Biden.

 

[brihard]

RFK Jr winning? If Trump takes a big enough hit to start a preference cascade, RFK Jr is the only viable non-Biden.

Unless they try to dust off Haley and throw her back in the mix. “Viable” is straining pretty hard to apply itself to RFK. Haley is still objectively a decent Republican candidate. While she suspended campaigning, I think she’s still legally eligible.

Not a fun conundrum for the Republicans, but they also brought this entirely upon themselves.

 

[CBH99]

I actually don't know what is a scarier though: Trump winning the election, or Trump not winning the election.

Honestly, I think Trump not winning the election will be scarier in terms of the consequences of a polarized population within the US (thoughts and feelings about Trump aside)

It'll be an interesting year for sure!

 

[mariomike]

Orange is the new black

Always bet on Red.

 

[TacticalTea]

Wouldn't have made sense. The 34 counts arose because there were 34 payments (transactions) to settle a single item. There is no dividing the underlying NDA payout into "this part of it is whatever the underlying crime is, and this part is not".

So what was the actual crime?

Can't find a source that's really specific.

 

[dapaterson]

And a loaded 2012 Ford Taurus with a 20 disc CD changer.

And a waterbed that he bought cash.

With a garden hose and enough booze, any bed can be a waterbed.

 

[KevinB]

So what was the actual crime?

Can't find a source that's really specific.

The cover up of the Stormy Daniels payoffs during the election campaign.

It wasn’t really the payoffs themselves, it was the acknowledgment by Trump and his staff that they needed to cover it up so it didn’t become public during the election when one was trying to run on Christian Values.

 

[brihard]

So what was the actual crime?

Can't find a source that's really specific.

New York State law 17-152, Conspiracy to Promote or Prevent Election. NYS Open Legislation | NYSenate.gov

Good breakdown of how this worked in the context of this trial here: What is the New York election law at the center of Trump's hush money trial?

 

[KevinB]

Honestly, I think Trump not winning the election will be scarier in terms of the consequences of a polarized population within the US (thoughts and feelings about Trump aside)

It'll be an interesting year for sure!

Honestly if the Jan 6th charges and the Classified Documents cases moved forward at a reasonable rate, those are the important ones that the public should change some opinions on DJT.

Honestly this was low hanging fruit but in the grand scheme won’t matter much.

 

[TacticalTea]

New York State law 17-152, Conspiracy to Promote or Prevent Election. NYS Open Legislation | NYSenate.gov

Good breakdown of how this worked in the context of this trial here: What is the New York election law at the center of Trump's hush money trial?

That seems like a creative application of the law.

I think a reasonable person would conclude that a hush money payment is not a campaign expense, and that filing it as such would probably result in fraud charges.

Kind of a catch-22 no?

Do we know if there's any precedent on this or was it a novel interpretation?

Not trying to re-litigate the whole thing here, just trying to wrap my head around this.

 

[TacticalTea]

Honestly if the Jan 6th charges and the Classified Documents cases moved forward at a reasonable rate, those are the important ones that the public should change some opinions on DJT.

Honestly this was low hanging fruit but in the grand scheme won’t matter much.

Agreed.

Ultimately I don't think he can be held responsible for Jan 6th, but the classified docs saga is much more damning than any other case in my mind.

 

[brihard]

Agreed.

Ultimately I don't think he can be held responsible for Jan 6th, but the classified docs saga is much more damning than any other case in my mind.

The federal election obstruction trial has, generally, two prongs.

One contends that Trump bears criminal responsibility for conspiring to, and actually obstructing the official proceeding of counting the electoral votes. This will include the events of the failed insurrection at the Capitol but also the bigger behind the scenes conniving and conspiring leading up to same.

The other prong is what I’ll call the ‘administrative’ conspiracy to defraud the United States; this includes in particular the phony elector schemes in multiple states and the repeated false claims of election fraud in furtherance of same.

The four charges are not all dependent on each other, and capture multiple distinct events and alleged offences. The eventual jury could easily find guilt on some but not on others.

I agree with you that the classified documents one is the most damning. It’s also farthest from the ability of the general public to wrap their heads around due to the heavy involvement of material most people will never see or even realize exists. That trial will be something and I’ll be following it as closely as I’m able.