SEP 2024 - Kiel Institute Report - "Fit for war in decades: Europe's and Germany's slow rearmament vis-a-vis Russia"

[dimsum]

we should have started gearing up in 2014 at the very latest. With his actions in Georgia and Chechnya Putin had demonstrated that he wished to rebuild the Soviet Union which would have included the Baltic States and Poland; even possibly parts of Germany but that is a question mark. With what we had available, assuming Ukraine was occupied, what would we have been able to bring to the table to stop those countries from being absorbed? Putin was promising war and we were still scrapping hardware from the cold war with no thought being given to its replacement.

In 2014 no one was looking at gearing up. Back then, Daesh was the big story.

Again, hindsight is 20/20.

 

[FJAG]

In 2014 no one was looking at gearing up. Back then, Daesh was the big story.

Quite the contrary in fact. The budget had tanked down from a high of $21.4 Bn to $17.8 Bn where it would roughly stand for the next two years as well.

Again, hindsight is 20/20.

Don't we pay people to read the tea leaves and predict where the future will take us. 2014 was a hallmark year. By 2016 NATO had formed the eFP and called for 2% of GDP for defence spending. But . . .

 

[GR66]

With hindsight, yes.

But remember back then, most Western observers were betting that Kyiv would be lost in a matter of days, and the country in the matter of weeks. The RUS military was Thunder-Running towards Kyiv until it…didn’t. I’m not sure that NATO militaries were ready to go into UKR at that point.

But a year later? Yeah, definitely should have started talks with suppliers.

I'm not sure I follow your logic...at the point when the Russian Army appeared to be at its greatest strength by being on the verge of overrunning the largest country in Europe (besides Russia itself) in a matter of days or weeks is when we WOULDN'T feel the greatest need to begin building up our defences against them?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

There was an article a few weeks/months ago on this very topic. It seems that the Trudeau Liberals have created a problem within our "Ammunition Industry" by not keeping our stocks up and allowing the industry to go into bankruptcy, or very close to it. When Trudeau sends our ammo supplies off to the Ukraine and makes no effort to replace it (seems to be a common trend in other military 'donations', as well), then our production is gravely affected.

Last I recall is that currently, Canada has only 3 days worth of ammo.

 

[CBH99]

we should have started gearing up in 2014 at the very latest. With his actions in Georgia and Chechnya Putin had demonstrated that he wished to rebuild the Soviet Union which would have included the Baltic States and Poland; even possibly parts of Germany but that is a question mark. With what we had available, assuming Ukraine was occupied, what would we have been able to bring to the table to stop those countries from being absorbed? Putin was promising war and we were still scrapping hardware from the cold war with no thought being given to its replacement.

To be fair, it wasn't that we were scraping together a bunch of hardware from the Cold War. NATO militaries were preoccupied with figuring out what to do with all that kit purchased for a counter-insurgency mission, and how to reconcile it with the warfighting equipment they didn't have

With vehicle fleets being newer or being upgraded during that time, we probably had more to contribute conventionally then than we did in 2022. Our forces were bigger, and still flush with all the leftovers from our adventures in Afghanistan. (MRAPS, Leo 2, M777, etc - I feel it would have been slightly more useful to Ukraine then than it would now)

...

We should have people who read the tea leaves.

These were some massive, obvious tea leaves to not read

 

[brihard]

Germany’s cabinet has approved a draft law regarding registration for national service

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-cabinet-approves-draft-law-voluntary-military-service-2024-11-06/

 

[Kirkhill]

Does anyone else find this bizarre?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1861286512802791807

NEW: Europe can’t make Ukraine enough weapons—So it’s paying Kyiv to do it

Europe is addressing its inability to produce enough weapons for Ukraine by funding Ukrainian arms makers directly. This approach lets Kyiv guide contracts to local firms for equipment like long-range missiles and drones, while European allies independently vet producers before approving deals.

Ukraine's arms industry, operating at 30% capacity due to funding shortages, is now producing weapons faster and cheaper than Europe through the "Danish Model." This system, developed by Denmark, funds Ukrainian firms directly to meet frontline needs and strengthen local defense. Countries like Norway, Sweden, Lithuania, Germany, and the Netherlands are supporting or adopting similar approaches.

Denmark developed the "Danish Model" after depleting its own weapon supplies, with support from the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and the Baltics. The initiative, aimed at boosting Ukraine’s defense, emerged amid European disunity and concerns over reduced U.S. engagement. President Zelensky praised the model for enabling Ukraine to produce key weapons like artillery and drones.