Artillery Logistics Lessons.

[Kirkhill]

Ukrainian Consumption

10,000 drones per month.
20,000 shells per day

Ukrainian forces in their fight against Russia burned through 10,000 drones per month in 2023, casualties of communications jamming, gunfire and crashes, according to an estimate by think tank Royal United Services Institute. Most of those uncrewed air vehicles and their components came from China.

Commentary: The U.S. Needs World War II Production Strategy For Drones | Aviation Week Network

Commercial electronics producers, including those in East Asia, could be vital to the U.S. war effort.

aviationweek.com

Ukrainian officials stated publicly in March 2023 that it needs 20,000 artillery shells per day for its roughly 300 Western-made artillery systems to support its ground operations effectively. At best they have received enough shells to fire 9,000 per day, but more recently only 2,000. Ukraine is trying to obtain sufficient munitions to fight fire with fire. Reportedly, Ukraine did not produce any artillery munitions before Russia’s invasion. In July 2023, Ukraine produced more mortar and artillery shells than it did in all of 2022. However, starting industrial production from virtually scratch during wartime, while bombarded by missiles and drones, will not suffice, at least in the short and medium terms. The latest reporting suggests that Ukraine will be able to produce 155 mm shells domestically during the second half of 2024.

Ukraine’s Artillery Shell Shortfall

The price of peace and how Ukraine’s allies have failed to deliver munitions.

www.lawfaremedia.org

Canadian production

3,000 shells per year.

 

[Kirkhill]

Further to ...

At present, the U.S. defense sector’s scale is still small and thus costs are high. Take, for example, Anduril Industries’ latest Bolt reconnaissance quadcopter, which costs in the “low tens of thousands of dollars.” In September, China’s DJI released its new Neo quadcopter to consumer markets for $199. While the hobbyist drone lacks Anduril’s level of encrypted communications and autonomy, it boasts a high-resolution camera and the ability to follow users autonomously. It does not take much imagination to see how China could weaponize its vast consumer drone industry.

Competing against the scale of China’s electronics manufacturing is daunting, but one place Washington might look for advice is SpaceX. Last month, the company boasted that its Bastrop, Texas, factory produced more than 1 million Starlink standard flat-panel antenna kits since it opened about 10 months ago.

“Bastrop will be the largest printed circuit board manufacturing facility in the entire U.S.,” SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell said during testimony before the Texas House of Representatives on Sept. 24. “I’m pretty sure we’ll be able to beat Southeast Asia in efficiency of producing those printed circuit boards.”

Commentary: The U.S. Needs World War II Production Strategy For Drones | Aviation Week Network

Commercial electronics producers, including those in East Asia, could be vital to the U.S. war effort.

aviationweek.com

And Anduril is supposed to be one of the low cost suppliers challenging the Big 5 defence companies.

 

[Brad Sallows]

20,000 shells per day for 300 systems (less than 6 divisions' worth).

People producing fluff about aid to Ukraine without following those numbers to obvious conclusions about production and preparedness are unserious.

 

[GR66]

20,000 shells per day for 300 systems (less than 6 divisions' worth).

People producing fluff about aid to Ukraine without following those numbers to obvious conclusions about production and preparedness are unserious.

That's 67 shells per day for each artillery tube.

For Canada, let's say that our aspirational strength for our tube artillery is 3 x 18-gun Reg Force Regiments and an equivalent sized Reserve Artillery force as a minimum for wartime expansion.

That's 108 x guns consuming 7,236 shells per day at a rate of usage equivalent to what Ukraine says they need to effectively support their ground operations (i.e. 2.4 times our current ANNUAL production per DAY).

Having enough war stocks to cover a one year conflict would mean having 2,641,140 shells in stock (i.e. 880 years of production at our current rate).

Ummm...I'm thinking we might need to up our production a tad.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Ummm...I'm thinking we might need to up our production a tad.

Having more stock is OK. Having more facilities is better. Having plans to quickly build more facilities to rapidly increase output to wartime levels is best.

That gets back to my theme that Canada needs a permanent multi-disciplinary group to prepare and update plans for military AND industrial mobilization - raw and finished materials, facilities, work processes, work force training, etc.