Artillery Logistics Lessons.

[Kirkhill]

Ukrainian Consumption

10,000 drones per month.
20,000 shells per day

Ukrainian forces in their fight against Russia burned through 10,000 drones per month in 2023, casualties of communications jamming, gunfire and crashes, according to an estimate by think tank Royal United Services Institute. Most of those uncrewed air vehicles and their components came from China.

Commentary: The U.S. Needs World War II Production Strategy For Drones | Aviation Week Network

Commercial electronics producers, including those in East Asia, could be vital to the U.S. war effort.

aviationweek.com

Ukrainian officials stated publicly in March 2023 that it needs 20,000 artillery shells per day for its roughly 300 Western-made artillery systems to support its ground operations effectively. At best they have received enough shells to fire 9,000 per day, but more recently only 2,000. Ukraine is trying to obtain sufficient munitions to fight fire with fire. Reportedly, Ukraine did not produce any artillery munitions before Russia’s invasion. In July 2023, Ukraine produced more mortar and artillery shells than it did in all of 2022. However, starting industrial production from virtually scratch during wartime, while bombarded by missiles and drones, will not suffice, at least in the short and medium terms. The latest reporting suggests that Ukraine will be able to produce 155 mm shells domestically during the second half of 2024.

Ukraine’s Artillery Shell Shortfall

The price of peace and how Ukraine’s allies have failed to deliver munitions.

www.lawfaremedia.org

Canadian production

3,000 shells per year.

 

[Kirkhill]

Further to ...

At present, the U.S. defense sector’s scale is still small and thus costs are high. Take, for example, Anduril Industries’ latest Bolt reconnaissance quadcopter, which costs in the “low tens of thousands of dollars.” In September, China’s DJI released its new Neo quadcopter to consumer markets for $199. While the hobbyist drone lacks Anduril’s level of encrypted communications and autonomy, it boasts a high-resolution camera and the ability to follow users autonomously. It does not take much imagination to see how China could weaponize its vast consumer drone industry.

Competing against the scale of China’s electronics manufacturing is daunting, but one place Washington might look for advice is SpaceX. Last month, the company boasted that its Bastrop, Texas, factory produced more than 1 million Starlink standard flat-panel antenna kits since it opened about 10 months ago.

“Bastrop will be the largest printed circuit board manufacturing facility in the entire U.S.,” SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell said during testimony before the Texas House of Representatives on Sept. 24. “I’m pretty sure we’ll be able to beat Southeast Asia in efficiency of producing those printed circuit boards.”

Commentary: The U.S. Needs World War II Production Strategy For Drones | Aviation Week Network

Commercial electronics producers, including those in East Asia, could be vital to the U.S. war effort.

aviationweek.com

And Anduril is supposed to be one of the low cost suppliers challenging the Big 5 defence companies.

 

[Brad Sallows]

20,000 shells per day for 300 systems (less than 6 divisions' worth).

People producing fluff about aid to Ukraine without following those numbers to obvious conclusions about production and preparedness are unserious.

 

[GR66]

20,000 shells per day for 300 systems (less than 6 divisions' worth).

People producing fluff about aid to Ukraine without following those numbers to obvious conclusions about production and preparedness are unserious.

That's 67 shells per day for each artillery tube.

For Canada, let's say that our aspirational strength for our tube artillery is 3 x 18-gun Reg Force Regiments and an equivalent sized Reserve Artillery force as a minimum for wartime expansion.

That's 108 x guns consuming 7,236 shells per day at a rate of usage equivalent to what Ukraine says they need to effectively support their ground operations (i.e. 2.4 times our current ANNUAL production per DAY).

Having enough war stocks to cover a one year conflict would mean having 2,641,140 shells in stock (i.e. 880 years of production at our current rate).

Ummm...I'm thinking we might need to up our production a tad.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Ummm...I'm thinking we might need to up our production a tad.

Having more stock is OK. Having more facilities is better. Having plans to quickly build more facilities to rapidly increase output to wartime levels is best.

That gets back to my theme that Canada needs a permanent multi-disciplinary group to prepare and update plans for military AND industrial mobilization - raw and finished materials, facilities, work processes, work force training, etc.

 

[FJAG]

That's 67 shells per day for each artillery tube.

For Canada, let's say that our aspirational strength for our tube artillery is 3 x 18-gun Reg Force Regiments and an equivalent sized Reserve Artillery force as a minimum for wartime expansion.

That's 108 x guns consuming 7,236 shells per day at a rate of usage equivalent to what Ukraine says they need to effectively support their ground operations (i.e. 2.4 times our current ANNUAL production per DAY).

Having enough war stocks to cover a one year conflict would mean having 2,641,140 shells in stock (i.e. 880 years of production at our current rate).

Ummm...I'm thinking we might need to up our production a tad.

Some time back, @SeaKingTacco found his staff tables from the 4 CMBG days when a CS regiment had four gun batteries - 24 M109 tubes/bde in all. These tables provided the basic and maintenance load numbers. Now those numbers are not set in stone. These loads can vary widely depending on the theatre of operations, the phase of war or the role at any given time. It's a G staff function to calculate those numbers and a log function to make them magically appear.

For CFE at the time, daily consumption rates for a 24 gun regiment varied from a low of roughly 150 to a high of roughly 250 rds per day which equates to 3,600 to 6,000 rounds per day PER BRIGADE. That doesn't change much for an 18-gun regiment because expenditures are calculated on the basis of required effects on the targets and the per gun per day ratio is merely a mathematical calculation working backwards.

The validity of these figures is, of course, now questionable since the nature of ammunition has changed drastically. Back in 4 CMBG the ammo was almost exclusively dumb rounds with a few specials like CLGP and early cluster mines and sub munitions. Todays precision rounds will reduce volumes required but at increased per round cost (although judging by the number of craters visible in UAV videos, there are plenty of dumb rounds being tossed around as well)

 

[Infanteer]

20,000 shells per day

As the article stipulates, that's for western provided 155mm and 105mm guns. Ukraine also has a a significant requirement for 122mm/152mm shells as well as mortar rounds and rockets (both 122mm as well as NATO 227mm). That number is easily doubled.

 

[Kirkhill]

Having more stock is OK. Having more facilities is better. Having plans to quickly build more facilities to rapidly increase output to wartime levels is best.

That gets back to my theme that Canada needs a permanent multi-disciplinary group to prepare and update plans for military AND industrial mobilization - raw and finished materials, facilities, work processes, work force training, etc.

I agree in principle but it takes a while to build and commission new plants and get them up to speed.

I think it is more realistic to keep existing plants ticking over at a low rate, making rounds for stock.

2 or 3 months inventory might buy enough time to get the lines fully manned and up to speed.

 

[KevinB]

I agree in principle but it takes a while to build and commission new plants and get them up to speed.

I think it is more realistic to keep existing plants ticking over at a low rate, making rounds for stock.

2 or 3 months inventory might buy enough time to get the lines fully manned and up to speed.

Certain lines can run at different rates — however not all lines of things can do that, and if one attempts to, it can lead to unsafe conditions (and for some types of munitions dangerous results with the end product) .

Raw materials for certain munitions are also not short lead time items.

 

[Kirkhill]

Certain lines can run at different rates — however not all lines of things can do that, and if one attempts to, it can lead to unsafe conditions (and for some types of munitions dangerous results with the end product) .

Raw materials for certain munitions are also not short lead time items.

The alternative to figuring out how to spool up quickly is to accept that instead of a 2 to 3 month cushion of stock you need a 1 to 2 year cushion. Suitably managed for age and quality of course.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Certain lines can run at different rates — however not all lines of things can do that, and if one attempts to, it can lead to unsafe conditions (and for some types of munitions dangerous results with the end product) .

Raw materials for certain munitions are also not short lead time items.

So what are the longest lead time items?

Fuzes?
Shell casings?
explosive filler?
Propellent?
Casings?

 

[Kirkhill]

So what are the longest lead time items?

Fuzes?
Shell casings?
explosive filler?
Propellent?
Casings?

Barrels, breeches, trunnions?

Or can rockets be generated faster?
Guidance chips?

 

[KevinB]

So what are the longest lead time items?

Fuzes?
Shell casings?
explosive filler?
Propellent?
Casings?

Generally filler and propellant, as there aren’t as many countries making the raw material for those as one may expect.

Fuzes, well depends on what type, a standard PD fuze if relatively simple compared to electronic VT or Prox ones. Admittedly this is an area I’ve never explored.

Barrels, breeches, trunnions?

That depends if you have steel and the machinery — for some types of guns, the likes are dead - so unless someone is willing to open a new facility for them, it’s game over.

Or can rockets be generated faster?
Guidance chips?

Rockets use a fair bit more propellant than guns for the same size and range, as the gun is a lot more efficient due to the closed breach. The downside to guns is the barrels etc you mentioned above.

Guidance systems, well while more expensive, if you have a tech sector it shouldn’t be that hard.