BC Election 2013

[RangerRay]

The implosion continues.  It's a slow motion train wreck with no sign of stopping anytime soon!

 

[Infanteer]

Good.  Maybe it is enough to bolster the Conservatives as a realistic alternative to the NDP.

 

[RangerRay]

Unfortunately for the BC Tories, Mr. Cummins is having leadership problems of his own.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/why-the-conservative-party-could-be-christy-clarks-new-best-friend/article4513921/

Why the (BC) Conservative Party could be Christy Clark’s new best friend

GARY MASON

VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Aug. 31 2012, 10:02 PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Aug. 31 2012, 10:07 PM EDT


This should be the best of times for the B.C. Conservatives.

Polls continually show them in a statistical tie with the foundering governing Liberals. In recent days, Premier Christy Clark has had to answer hard questions about her leadership in the wake of a bevy of resignation announcements. One of those included former finance minister Kevin Falcon, widely seen as the conservative lynchpin crucial to keeping the Liberal coalition together.

More than anything, Ms. Clark has been unable to change the political conversation in B.C., which for months now has centred around the seeming inevitability of a major smackdown of her party in next May’s election.

With all that going for them, you’d think the Conservatives would be flying high. Instead, they are battling negative headlines of their own. Despite taking the party from the depths of oblivion to the possibility of a forming the Official Opposition after the next election, Leader John Cummins appears to be facing some sort of mutiny.

Mr. Cummins doesn’t seem particularly worried by a call from the provincial director of his party, John Crocock, for a leadership review. He’s convinced he’ll emerge as leader following the party’s convention in September. This remains to be seen.

Among those believed to be in favour of change is John van Dongen, the former Liberal who defected to the Conservative ranks earlier this year. He won’t say publicly whether he supports Mr. Cummins or not, which tells you everything you need to know about where he stands. Apparently, Mr. van Dongen is unhappy about some of the decisions that have been made by the 70-year-old Mr. Cummins, in particular the weathered cast of advisers with which he’s surrounded himself.

They include former Newfoundland premier Brian Peckford, who is also 70, and Randy White, the former Reform and Alliance MP who is 64. While there is always something to be said for surrounding yourself with experience, some Conservatives believe Mr. Cummins’s braintrust makes him and the party look musty and irrelevant.

And then there is Reed Elley, a pastor and former Reform MP who has made news in the past for all the wrong reasons – in particular, comments about homosexuality that were perceived to be narrow-minded and bigoted. It was precisely those types of socially conservative views expressed by candidates of Wildrose in Alberta that sunk the party’s chances of forming government in the last election. Mr. Cummins, meantime, allowed Mr. Elley to become president of his party.

It may be the most boneheaded move he’s made yet.

The fact is, those who say Mr. Cummins has made some questionable decisions since assuming the leadership of his party are right. His top strategists, while no doubt decent individuals, do not instill confidence that the leader is attempting to mould his party into a modern political institution that reflects a 21st-century view of conservatism. In fact, it suggests just the opposite.

Unquestionably, some of the impetus to push Mr. Cummins out has to do with the unexpected position in which the party finds itself; that is, on the verge, potentially, of making a historic breakthrough. There are some behind this coup attempt who no doubt smell an opportunity here and don’t believe Mr. Cummins is the right person to take advantage of it. Worse, they think he might blow it thanks to an aged and insular-looking inner circle.

If there was an obvious successor to Mr. Cummins waiting in the wings, these mischievous backroom developments might have more currency. But there isn’t any. Mr. Cummins’s detractors insist that it’s impossible to say who might step forward if the leader’s position suddenly becomes vacant. Maybe Mr. van Dongen believes he’s the right person for the job.

For now, political watchers will have to wait to see how this all plays out. A botched coup attempt could be deadly for the Conservatives and wipe out many of the gains they’ve made. That is a huge gamble to take. If Mr. Cummins is removed by a vote of the party and replaced by some anonymous, uninspiring alternative it could be just the development for which the B.C. Liberals have been waiting.

Those on the right flank of the Liberal coalition who have been parking their affections with the Conservatives might change their tune. They might decide that a flawed Liberal Party is better than a right-wing alternative that seems to be in complete disarray.

It may be that the Conservatives’ troubles could just be the boost for which Christy Clark has been hoping.

I can see a lot of people staying home on election day!

 

[Infanteer]

Looks like the NDP will destroy the opposition, getting 5 years to fill up union coffers again while the Liberals and Conservatives lick their wounds, merge and form a new party to be around when the BC electorate goes through its usual cycle of 'why did we vote those guys in last time?"

 

[Rifleman62]

Infanteer:

Looks like the NDP will destroy the opposition, getting 5 years to fill up union coffers again......

The worst is the provincial debt that will get bigger and bigger. Up to five years of NDP government could mean at least ten years plus of belt tightening.

Strangle business opportunity. The NDP business model is that all businesses in BC are Mom and Pop organizations, with Mom and Pop members of a union.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, is that organizations latest (21 Jan 13) prediction for the 14 May 13 BC election:

Source: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/british-columbia.html?spref=tw

 

[Infanteer]

I don't know who the BC Christy Party is, but it is clear that they won't be forming government....

 

[RangerRay]

Unless they ditch her and the lion share of the dead weight in caucus (the semi-competent ones have flocked off), and can attract competent volunteers back to the party, the BC Christy Party is dead.  The ONLY card they have is that they aren't the NDP, but most free-enterprise voters are getting tired of that routine.  The BC Liberals are more of a crony-capitalist party rather than a free-enterprise party anyways.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Being listening to the Liberal attack ads on the NDP. You know when your neck deep in crap of your making, perhaps you should not to to quick to start flinging it. The NDP won't win, it's a case of the Liberals being punted and no other alternative exists.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail is a last look at the forthcoming BC election:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/rural-urban-divide-produces-an-election-tale-of-two-provinces/article11876152/#dashboard/follows/

Rural-urban divide produces an election tale of two provinces

IAN BAILEY AND JUSTINE HUNTER
Kamloops, B.C., and Prince George, B.C. — The Globe and Mail

Published Saturday, May. 11 2013

Adrian Dix and Christy Clark on the campaign trail in rural parts of British Columbia.
(John Lehmann/The Globe and Mail)

Since 1986, B.C.’s top political office has been held by leaders based in urban British Columbia. But victory does not come without motivating rural voters, who often view politics through a different lens. Finding a consistent campaign message that can bridge both urban and rural voters requires a delicate balancing act, as Ian Bailey and Justine Hunter report.

NDP: MAKING A MACRO MESSAGE RESONATE

B.C. New Democrats did not skimp on platform policy proposals to catch the attention of rural voters. For example, they made commitments to “healthy” forests, sustainable mining and exploration, and support for rural economic development.

But the co-chair of the party’s platform committee says there’s no real divide in messaging to rural and urban British Columbians because the party is finding that big ideas such as a need for a change in government, skills development and health care resonate across city and country ahead of the May 14 election.

“There’s no question there are common messages,” says Carole James, former party leader and co-chair of a platform that has been in the works since Mr. Dix was elected party leader in early 2011.

“Concerns we’re hearing are concerns that go across rural and urban. There isn’t a rural and urban divide. There are specifics that people will see reflected [in the platform], but those issues are just as important in rural areas or urban areas.”

Ms. James said she had just returned from Prince George, where she was mainstreeting and helping out campaigns, and talking to voters in both rural and urban settings: “The messages are pretty consistent.”

To further highlight the point, she referred to her experiences in Victoria, where she’s seeking re-election in Victoria-Beacon Hill. “Victoria is an urban setting, but at almost every all-candidates meeting, we’ve had somebody ask about resources and how we can get more out of [them].”

In campaigning this week, NDP Leader Adrian Dix dropped a reference to raw logs into a speech at an evening rally in Kamloops – something new in a trip that took him across the Okanagan.

The opposition leader mentioned his party’s aversion to raw log exports unless they are surplus to domestic demand – a line sure to resonate in a community where primary resources are a notable part of the employment pie.

But much of his commentary that day, whether in rally speeches or responses to reporters, was big-picture references to issues that would have been as relevant to downtown Vancouver as in Armstrong. (Mr. Dix did pointedly talk about hospital issues in Vernon and Kamloops – a necessity for an opposition politician seeking a shot at government.)

Mr. Dix has campaigned heavily in the Lower Mainland, but travelled to the Okanagan at least three times, as well as Prince George, Cranbrook and Vancouver Island.

Matt Toner, a New Democrat running in Vancouver-False Creek, says the Dix-led campaign is pitching broad “universal themes” that connect across the province.

But the digital media executive said any candidate’s challenge is connecting relevant themes to voters. In the condo towers and café-dotted streets of much of the riding, he said basic affordability is an issue and touches on policy areas from skills training to education.

“That’s the job of a politician in some ways – to look at their community and translate that macro message in a way that makes sense locally,” he said. – Ian Bailey

LIBERALS: GETTING OUT THE VOTE BY GETTING OUT OF THE WAY

Christy Clark is standing on the back of a flatbed tractor-trailer, 60-tonne cranes and beefy excavators towering in the background. Amid the equipment, about 300 supporters have gathered under the hot sun to cheer the B.C. Liberal Leader, who came with no promises for new hospitals or roads, just a government that would “get off your back.”

Rosalind Thorn didn’t come for anything more. As president of the Prince George Construction Association, she said her members are happy with the status quo. “We have $70-billion of work on the books, just on major projects,” she crowed in an interview. These are private-sector projects in resource extraction. In the north, Ms. Clark does not need to explain why industry just wants government to get out of the way. But that is only 7 per cent of the population. In the rest of the province, the Liberal message has to be spelled out.

Much of the campaign for the B.C. Liberals has been an attempt to sell urban voters on a plan to build B.C. by attracting investment in liquefied natural gas. Rural communities, more often than not, are simply the backdrop. The big machinery around Ms. Clark on Thursday night was intended to persuade voters she wants to build big.

Ms. Clark has spent two-thirds of the campaign in rural B.C. Some of it is about trying to shore up Liberal strongholds – her party’s momentum has come more from the interior than Metro Vancouver. But Ms. Clark still has work to do in sewing up the right-of-centre coalition she needs to win: Rural voters are more likely to say they are unhappy with the options, notes pollster Mario Canseco of Angus Reid Public Opinion.

As the Liberal leader criss-crossed the province’s north this week, it was all about “connecting the dots.” The central theme is that her leadership is needed to establish a new LNG industry that will pay off the province’s debt in 15 years – and much more.

A visit to Fort Nelson in the farthest corner of the province took the better part of a day, but the Liberals want voters in the south to see a massive infrastructure here is being built up in anticipation of bigger markets.

There are subtle differences between Ms. Clark’s urban message and her rural pitch. In Kitimat, Ms. Clark does not spend time bashing dirty Alberta oil, as she has in Vancouver. “When I look around at the people here and I see how well you are doing, I feel so proud of what you’ve built,” she said. A New Democrat government would take that away, is how she connects the dots: “The NDP’s no-growth agenda for our economy will kill jobs and hurt families.”

The vote-rich suburbs of Metro Vancouver have their place – but the lines connect in different ways. In Kitimat, it’s about the jobs that would flow from LNG. In Burnaby, it’s how the benefits of LNG would bring lower taxes.

At a rally in Maple Ridge, Ms. Clark talked of lifting the tolls on the new Port Mann bridge with the riches LNG will bring. But that speech in a campaign office was for the converted. The images of those gas plants and asphalt spreaders is what she wants voters to see. – Justine Hunter

The election appears, to me, to still be the NDP's to lose but the race also appears to be much, much closer than was predicted.

 

[Rifleman62]

I voted on Friday. I held my nose and voted LieLiberal for the first time in my life. Anything to keep the NDP party OUT.

The three candidates in my riding are the Minister of Agriculture, whose family business is Quail's Gate winery two miles down the road; a rotund school teacher (NDP) who has been told by the curriculum, school board, the principal, and the Teachers Union how to live her whole life; and a small business owner for the Conservatives. At all party meetings/radio talk show, only the Lieliberal could speak coherently. The other two were speaking points and platitudes. Sound just dumb, but the LieLiberal was probably speaking with forked tongue anyway.

The BC Cons have lost support as people who can add 2 + 2 figure out the Cons have zero chance to form a government or hold a minority government to ransom.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And Rifleman62 led the charge; despite the NDP's consistent and substantial lead in the polls and the consensus of the commentariat, the BC Liberals are re-elected.

Reuslts are:

Lib:  50 seats on 44.4% of the popular vote
NDP: 33 seats on 39.5% of the popular vote
Grn:    1 seat  on  8.0% of the popular vote
Ind:    1 seat  on  3.3% of the popular vote
Con:  0 seats on  4.8% of the popular vote

 

[vonGarvin]

To echo the above post by Mr. Campbell, they were way off.

 

[Remius]

When the dust settles I'm curious as to how this will be spun by all sides.

 

[observor 69]

When the dust settles I'm curious as to how this will be spun by all sides.

"FEAR" of those evil NDP commies seemed to work well for the Lieberals. Hard for the NDP to fight the message Clark kept repeating.

 

[Rifleman62]

Hard for the NDP to fight the message Clark kept repeating.

Hard to fight the truth.

 

[jpjohnsn]

When the dust settles I'm curious as to how this will be spun by all sides.

Probably something about how the provincial Liberal win in BC proves Justin is in over his head.  :

 

[Remius]

Probably something about how the provincial Liberal win in BC proves Justin is in over his head.  :

Lol.  I though that was the Labrador by-election spin.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The BC Liberals did not have to stoke fear of the NDP; the NDP did that to themselves by campaigning on "time for change" and then leaving voters largely on their own to imagine exactly what that change might be - given the team likely to execute it.  BC voters have memories, and the political pendulum in this province swings far.  I don't know what the internal factions of the NDP truly are, but seen from the outside Dix and Sihota are more closely associated with the Glen Clark-flavoured NDP than the Mike Harcourt-flavoured NDP.  Clark's NDP won government in 1996 without the largest vote share and did not govern modestly or contritely.

Furthermore, among the NDP's firm and loudly advertised positions, policies which place development in region B at a standstill to suit constituents in region A will not be popular in region B.  And as long as NDP adherents insist on seeing those outside their tent as stupid benighted rednecks and cowboys, the NDP will not have to worry about making much more room inside the tent.

Nevertheless, I am surprised by the result.  However, all the progressives across Canada who think the federal Conservative government is unjust and illegitimate because it only represents ~40% of voters should rejoice that the NDP, with only ~40% of voters, is not the government in BC.

 

[CougarKing]

So how does this work for Clark? Her BC Liberal party won but she lost the seat in her own riding of Vancouver-Point Grey to an NDP member!

???

What if another BC Liberal MLA doesn't step aside to allow a byelection for her?

VANCOUVER — David Eby claimed victory in Vancouver-Point Grey early this morning, unseating Liberal Premier Christy Clark. His campaign manager Kate Van Meer-Mass sent a two-word text message that Eby read aloud to supporters crammed into his West Broadway campaign office around 1 a.m.: "We won."

For most of the night Clark trailed David Eby, a former B.C. Civil Liberties lawyer who she had also bested in a byelection two years ago after Premier Gordon Campbell resigned.

By the time all 147 ballot boxes were counted around 1 a.m., Eby had beaten Clark by 785 votes — 10,162 to 9,377, according to Elections B.C.

Clark made no reference to her own battle in Point Grey during her victory speech, but Liberal advisers said on background that if Clark loses her seat to Eby they expect one of the Liberal MLA-elects will step aside to create a byelection for her.

(...)

Read more: Vancouver Sun link