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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

You are not getting her priorities.
It’s obvious what her priorities are.
She has a responsibility to Alberta first,
So not country first.
where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.
Which is the wrong approach when faced with national threats.

Like I said. Looks like damage control on her part.
 
More on the provincial front: Doug Ford continues to prepare Ontario’s own response to tariffs, including sweeping the shelves of the LCBO of American products. Make Labatt 50 great again!

The WSJ article seems to indicate that some of his more competent economic advisers’ advice to him vs the tariff hawks advice may have worked and he will not impose tariffs. We’ll see.
 
Pulling this one from Border Integrity over to the Tariff thread:

Fitty, Schooner and OV all great beers. Bring back beer flavored beer.

LCBO doesn’t sell much American origin beer, but they sell about $860 million a year in U.S. origin wine and spirits. Likely heavily concentrated in a modest number of producing companies, and a modest number of geographical areas.

 
You are not getting her priorities. She has a responsibility to Alberta first, where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.
is that the actual responsibility of a Premier?
the auto industry is at a minimum the same as the oil industry. Are you comparing provincial % to national%
I get my ALL my news from these sources (I focus on national shit to be honest), CTV (Top choice), Northern Perspective, CBC (yup believe it or not I watch David Cochrane), Rebel News, Global.

I have several friends in ALberta and I lived there very briefly many years ago. My friends are about 3/4 pro Smith/O & G and 1/4 anti-Smith/O & G

I am allowed an opinion if thats ok?

The woke discussion is another forum, keep it there.
cant one be anti smith and pro O&G?
 
Lived experience of myself and friends. Or is that too woke for you to consider? Also critical listening to news outlet reporting of government actions.

Where do you get your local Alberta news?

It seems your lived experience is far different from mine and my friends and associates.

There is a reason AB's population growth has been booming.
 
I find this to be a much more sensible solution to dealing with Trump than attempting a dollar for dollar trade war in which we suffer terribly. Way to go, Premier Smith

still seems strange to suggest that the solution to the trade imbalance is to push for more trade imbalance

what is the oil discount?

what is the benefit of switching Energy East from NG to oil?
 
If Ford is proposing to block sales of US liquor, he's receiving idiotic advice. There is a huge world market for alcoholic beverages, and increasing prosperity is one of the reasons products you might like occasionally disappear from your local stores - someone, somewhere else, is willing to buy, and all that is needed is a sea-can routed somewhere else. Futile small gestures are a "tell" of people bereft of useful ideas, or unwilling to accept real political damage. The attraction is obvious: the appearance of doing something without the downside risk of tackling something of importance, like commodity exports or the Auto Pact.

Every proposal to punish US exporters - especially relatively small ones, of products not low in the value-add of any supply chain - is going to work the same way as threats to our exporters: they will be encouraged to seek markets elsewhere, and some of those relationships will become permanent and you will permanently lose access to products. This is especially true when they don't need multi-year infrastructure projects to establish new delivery routes.

Those who are serious about fighting their "economic war" ought to be aiming at commodities that are at the bottom of the chain, to maximize disruption. The whole point is disruption. Pin-prick economic commando raids are not the aim to be chasing when you need to win the Battle of the Atlantic.

The pause in the threat is amusing. It yanks the rugs out from all those using it to politick for leadership and generally distract attention away from their own long-term economic failures and gives everyone time to re-think all the ways in which we self-sabotage economic prosperity. The foreign "other" is less imminent.

Calm down, stop bleating "war, war, war", and think about removing internal impediments, which we should do anyways. Then when the threat finally dissipates, things will be even better.
 
If Ford is proposing to block sales of US liquor, he's receiving idiotic advice. There is a huge world market for alcoholic beverages, and increasing prosperity is one of the reasons products you might like occasionally disappear from your local stores - someone, somewhere else, is willing to buy, and all that is needed is a sea-can routed somewhere else. Futile small gestures are a "tell" of people bereft of useful ideas, or unwilling to accept real political damage. The attraction is obvious: the appearance of doing something without the downside risk of tackling something of importance, like commodity exports or the Auto Pact.

Every proposal to punish US exporters - especially relatively small ones, of products not low in the value-add of any supply chain - is going to work the same way as threats to our exporters: they will be encouraged to seek markets elsewhere, and some of those relationships will become permanent and you will permanently lose access to products. This is especially true when they don't need multi-year infrastructure projects to establish new delivery routes.

Those who are serious about fighting their "economic war" ought to be aiming at commodities that are at the bottom of the chain, to maximize disruption. The whole point is disruption. Pin-prick economic commando raids are not the aim to be chasing when you need to win the Battle of the Atlantic.

The pause in the threat is amusing. It yanks the rugs out from all those using it to politick for leadership and generally distract attention away from their own long-term economic failures and gives everyone time to re-think all the ways in which we self-sabotage economic prosperity. The foreign "other" is less imminent.

Calm down, stop bleating "war, war, war", and think about removing internal impediments, which we should do anyways. Then when the threat finally dissipates, things will be even better.
the last time they targeted specific items from specific representatives i believe. Whether it helped or not who knows
 
If Ford is proposing to block sales of US liquor, he's receiving idiotic advice. There is a huge world market for alcoholic beverages, and increasing prosperity is one of the reasons products you might like occasionally disappear from your local stores - someone, somewhere else, is willing to buy, and all that is needed is a sea-can routed somewhere else. Futile small gestures are a "tell" of people bereft of useful ideas, or unwilling to accept real political damage. The attraction is obvious: the appearance of doing something without the downside risk of tackling something of importance, like commodity exports or the Auto Pact.

Every proposal to punish US exporters - especially relatively small ones, of products not low in the value-add of any supply chain - is going to work the same way as threats to our exporters: they will be encouraged to seek markets elsewhere, and some of those relationships will become permanent and you will permanently lose access to products. This is especially true when they don't need multi-year infrastructure projects to establish new delivery routes.

Those who are serious about fighting their "economic war" ought to be aiming at commodities that are at the bottom of the chain, to maximize disruption. The whole point is disruption. Pin-prick economic commando raids are not the aim to be chasing when you need to win the Battle of the Atlantic.

The pause in the threat is amusing. It yanks the rugs out from all those using it to politick for leadership and generally distract attention away from their own long-term economic failures and gives everyone time to re-think all the ways in which we self-sabotage economic prosperity. The foreign "other" is less imminent.

Calm down, stop bleating "war, war, war", and think about removing internal impediments, which we should do anyways. Then when the threat finally dissipates, things will be even better.
Nah. US beer is crap.

The LCBO is if I recall correctly one of the worlds single biggest purchaser of alcohol. That will have an impact and put pressure on that specific industry if push comes to shove. All part of a whole of country approach. .
 

President Donald Trump won't impose immediate tariffs on Canada: reports​

Memo to U.S. federal agencies instructs them to study trade policies and relationships with North American neighbours and China

Well now! Wasn't that invigorating? Nothing like the prospect of a good hanging, eh? :LOL:

...

He got our attention. A little bit of coverage about what consequences might be. Friends and enemies.

Now then. National Defence? Electric Cars (the US market just shrank markedly)? Battery plants? Or do we get to build pipelines to Canadian ports? Or do we continue to feed the American Beast?
 
While we have been locking up hydrocarbons, especially LNG terminals ....

North America​

[edit]
Under construction:
  • Plaquemines opened 2024
  • Corpus Christie Stage III - IOC March 2025
  • Golden Pass - IOC December 2025
  • Rio Grande - IOC 2026
  • Port Arthur - IOC 2026/28
  • LNG Canada (Kitimat) - IOC 2025
  • Woodfibre LNG (Squamish) - IOC 2027
  • Cedar LNG (Kitimat) - IOC 2029
  • Fast LNG Altamira FLNG2 - export started 2024
  • Energia Costa Azul - IOC 2025
And the Aussies have built 10 since 1989 with 7 or 8 currently in production.

It's almost like wrecking Canadian resource export output was done on purpose to weaken us and make a bid for an economic takeover much easier.
 
Doesn’t sound like she’s had any success in getting a sneak preview of what’s to come, nor negotiating any tariff carve-outs for her province or for Canada generally.

I don’t know offhand if America has surplus domestic oil reserves sitting idled at higher marginal production costs that could become profitable to bring online if WCS oil eats tariffs. I.e., if it becomes 10 or 15 or 25% more expensive for American refineries to import Alberta oil, could that allow for, say, shale oil or gas deposits to become profitable to develop where they currently aren’t? That would run a risk of long term supply substitution away from Canada. We’ve seen how Alberta bitumen oil can be profitable to extract or not, depending on spot price. Assuming tariffs would equally hit other potential sources of oil imports (which is not necessarily a safe assumption, but I’ll go with it to reduce variables), tariffed Canadian oil will need to compete with America’s potential to increase domestic production.

If America tariffs our oil, but does not impose equal tariffs on other overseas producers (say someone in another oil producing country succesfully curries Trump’s favour), we could end up in a really bad place indeed.

I haven't heard anything about the strategic reserves ever since Biden drew it down and sold it to China.
 
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More on the provincial front: Doug Ford continues to prepare Ontario’s own response to tariffs, including sweeping the shelves of the LCBO of American products. Make Labatt 50 great again!


Almost all of our beer is made by the same conglomerates that make American beer. There aren't any true, family brewers like Molson and Labbatt left. They're just brand names coming off the same line. American beer @ 5% is the same as Canadian beer @ 5%. It just a matter of taste.
 
I haven't heard anything about the reserves ever since Biden drew it down and sold it to China.

I’m not talking about the strategic oil reserve. That’s oil that’s already out of the ground and in tanks. Biden’s administration did sell some when prices were higher and replenished stocks when prices were lower. That was only a $2 billion profit in favour of America, so not, overall, a huge deal. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...eserve-scores-big-profit-hA4kCDRqAEusP85qxHOa

By ‘reserves’ I’m talking about oil that’s in the ground but could be extracted with the right investment and infrastructure. This can depend heavily on things like federal or state regulations, as well as the ability to raise capital to develop and exploit deposits. The latter depends heavily on the protected spot price of oil. If you can get it out of the ground and shipped for $50 a barrel, it makes a difference if you can sell it for $35 or for $65. Tariffs on competing oil imports can absolutely be a make or break.
 
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