Canada-US Trade Relations

[George Wallace]

What is your point? Are you saying that you think aluminum and steel tariffs against the EU are about NAFTA? Are you off on a tangent? You quoted my post about the tariffs not being about NAFTA, but I can’t figure out where you are trying to go with your thoughts.

My thoughts are that Trump's tariffs could be a sign of his frustration that both Canada and Mexico, but primarily Canada, are trying to introduce totally unrelated items into the negotiations, that have no relevance on Trade.  That with his "business style of thinking" he has acted in a manner that would force others to negotiate on matters that he wants dealt with.  That he has now placed tariffs on the EU and other nations, is just collateral damage of this strategy.

His style of governing like a businessman is totally foreign to Canadian, and foreign, politicians and diplomatic corps.  I believe that he will "barter" his way, haggling all the way, to get what he wants in a businesslike manner, foreign to the diplomacy that most would be accustomed to.

 

[tomahawk6]

The discussion on the radio this morning was that it was more of a tariff on the Chinese since this was bsteel that originated in China.If the tariff was on China all they would need to do was essentially launder the steel through a third party avoiding the tariff.Makes sense to this old infantryman.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

The discussion on the radio this morning was that it was more of a tariff on the Chinese since this was bsteel that originated in China.If the tariff was on China all they would need to do was essentially launder the steel through a third party avoiding the tariff.Makes sense to this old infantryman.

Except that PPCLI Guy showed convincingly, a few post upthread that, using the US Govt's own numbers, the amount of steel coming into Canada from China and then transhipped into the US amounts to a rounding error in the overall yearly trade in steel.

This morning, Diane Francis was on CBC radio. It was her opinion that this is all actually aimed at Mexico and the that tariffs on Canada are designed to cut Canada away from supporting keeping Mexico in NAFTA. The reason is that Mexico's low cost labour and nearly non-existent environmental regulations are hollowing out manufacturing in the US (and Canada, too).

:dunno:

 

[Blackadder1916]

In all seriousness, what do pay equality, gender rights, Indigenous rights, cultural exceptions, etc. have to do with Trade negotiations?  Canada has thrown those all on the table.  It would appear to me that it is Canada that is not taking this as serious as they should; and should not be trying to social engineer other nations, let alone our own. 

Since all (most) of these issues would appropriately fall under labour standards and thus would be a component of production why wouldn't they be issues to be raised in trade negotiations.  Note that labour standards, while not an included section in the text of the NAFTA, were the subject of one of the parallel agreements that came into effect in conjunction with NAFTA.
North American Agreement on Labour Cooperation
North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation

And Canada isn't alone in bring up labour standards in the negotiations.  According to the US Trade Representative these will be issues that the USA will bring to the table.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/NAFTAObjectives.pdf

Labor:
- Bring the labor provisions into the core of the Agreement rather than in a side agreement.
- Require NAFTA countries to adopt and maintain in their laws and practices the
internationally recognized core labor standards as recognized in the ILO Declaration,
including:
 Freedom of association and the effective recognition of the right to collective bargaining;
 Elimination of all forms of forced or compulsory labor;
 Effective abolition of child labor and a prohibition on the worst forms of child labor; and
 Elimination of discrimination in respect of employment and occupation.
- Require NAFTA countries to have laws governing acceptable conditions of work with
respect to minimum wages, hours of work, and occupational safety and health.
- Establish rules that will ensure that NAFTA countries do not waive or derogate from their
labor laws implementing internationally recognized core labor standards in a manner
affecting trade or investment between the parties.
- Establish rules that will ensure that NAFTA countries do not fail to effectively enforce their
labor laws implementing internationally recognized core labor standards and acceptable
conditions of work with respect to minimum wages, hours of work, and occupational safety
and health laws through a sustained or recurring course of action or inaction, in a manner
affecting trade or investment between the parties.
- Require that NAFTA countries take initiatives to prohibit trade in goods produced by forced
labor, regardless of whether the source country is a NAFTA country.
- Provide access to fair, equitable, and transparent administrative and judicial proceedings.
- Ensure that these labor obligations are subject to the same dispute settlement mechanism that
applies to other enforceable obligations of the Agreement.
- Establish a means for stakeholder participation, including through public advisory
committees, as well as a process for the public to raise concerns directly with NAFTA
governments if they believe a NAFTA country is not meeting its labor commitments.
- Establish or maintain a senior-level Labor Committee, which will meet regularly to oversee
implementation of labor commitments, and include a mechanism for cooperation and
coordination on labor issues, including opportunities for stakeholder input in identifying
areas of cooperation.

 

[McG]

My thoughts are that Trump's tariffs could be a sign of his frustration that both Canada and Mexico, but primarily Canada, are trying to introduce totally unrelated items into the negotiations, that have no relevance on Trade.  That with his "business style of thinking" he has acted in a manner that would force others to negotiate on matters that he wants dealt with.  That he has now placed tariffs on the EU and other nations, is just collateral damage of this strategy.

Got it.  So, in your mind, Trump hammering the world with tariffs is about Canada and Mexico? China (which was hit first) and EU (which was hit concurrent with Canada) are just collateral damage?

I know you dislike the PM, but I think you have to grasp at a lot of imagined fictions about the current state of NAFTA negotiations (not to mention an inflated sense of national self-worth) to think this is about Canada or NAFTA.

This is not a Canada/USA trade war.  We are looking at USA vs the world trade war. We are less of a player than we want to believe.

 

[CountDC]

Except that PPCLI Guy showed convincingly, a few post upthread that, using the US Govt's own numbers, the amount of steel coming into Canada from China and then transhipped into the US amounts to a rounding error in the overall yearly trade in steel.

This morning, Diane Francis was on CBC radio. It was her opinion that this is all actually aimed at Mexico and the that tariffs on Canada are designed to cut Canada away from supporting keeping Mexico in NAFTA. The reason is that Mexico's low cost labour and nearly non-existent environmental regulations are hollowing out manufacturing in the US (and Canada, too).

:dunno:

I think the point he was making is that if they don't put it on Canada we would see a large increase to that number as a means of bypassing.


Personally I think this whole thing is Trump playing tough businessman to negotiate for what he wants.  Nothing really unexpected.  Biggest surprise to me is how many people are surprised by it.

 

[George Wallace]

I am not looking at Trump as a politician, or even as a President, but as a businessman, and think that all his ministrations are those of a businessman, not a politician, out to haggle the best deal for himself.  I think that he actually is not just focused on one deal, NAFTA, but a larger playing field.  He is taking his eleventh point and having fun, while aiming for his goal of making America Great again.  He is keeping his cards close to his chest and bluffing his way around the table(s).
 

 

[FJAG]

My thoughts are that Trump's tariffs could be a sign of his frustration that both Canada and Mexico, but primarily Canada, are trying to introduce totally unrelated items into the negotiations, that have no relevance on Trade.  That with his "business style of thinking" he has acted in a manner that would force others to negotiate on matters that he wants dealt with.  That he has now placed tariffs on the EU and other nations, is just collateral damage of this strategy.

His style of governing like a businessman is totally foreign to Canadian, and foreign, politicians and diplomatic corps.  I believe that he will "barter" his way, haggling all the way, to get what he wants in a businesslike manner, foreign to the diplomacy that most would be accustomed to.

I am not looking at Trump as a politician, or even as a President, but as a businessman, and think that all his ministrations are those of a businessman, not a politician, out to haggle the best deal for himself.  I think that he actually is not just focused on one deal, NAFTA, but a larger playing field.  He is taking his eleventh point and having fun, while aiming for his goal of making America Great again.  He is keeping his cards close to his chest and bluffing his way around the table(s).

With respect George, he's not negotiating like a businessman, whether Canadian, foreign or international.

Businessmen negotiate with the understanding that a good deal is one that benefits both parties although you always want your side to come out slightly ahead. If you are negotiating with the intent to crush the other side then they will simply walk away from a bad deal or figure out some way to stick it to you.

Trump right now is playing it up for his base to look tough. He doesn't care about what the outcome of these negotiations are as he has nothing personally invested in it. All too often already he has made concessions and favourable deals with countries and companies that make it possible for the Trump brand (and not the USA brand) to get concessions. (such as the UAE who uses his hotel in Washington v Qatar who didn't; Trump tower approval in Argentina right after an Eric T arranged Trump telephone call with Argentina's president; Chinese approvals of Ivanka Trump trademarks; Japanese dealings with Ivanka Trump clothing lines)

However, when Trump deals with foreign trade he simply doesn't care what the outcome is. He's not playing with his own money he's playing with other peoples. Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, Trump will call it a victory for his side and an example of his great skills as a business negotiator. Unfortunately there will be a great herd of no nothing enablers in the alternate press who will back him up in front of his base because they are all playing the same anti establishment, anarchist game.

Every American should be concerned. What Trump is teaching the world more and more is that America can't be trusted or relied on anymore. International agreements are being torn up like so much confetti. All that is being offered as an alternative are ones designed to give the US a massive advantage. What's worse is that Trump told his base exactly what he was going to do and they ate it up. Now he's doing it. The result is that everyone out there understands that its not just a matter of waiting out until Trump is thrown out of office or goes to the big Mar-a-Lago in the sky. There may well be future presidents every bit as erratic as Trump. It will be up to future administrations to overcome the feeling of ill will that has developed and will continue to grow.

[cheers]

 

[tomahawk6]

Other countries learned under Obama that relying on the US wasnt good. Trump has accomplished more than any other at this point in the adminisration.So far he is handling North Korea,both parties want something loosen sanctions or give up nukes.If they actually do that then there will be security guarantee's for Kim.Kim sacked a number of key leaders that dont agree with his regime in the past week or so.

 

[Altair]

Other countries learned under Obama that relying on the US wasnt good. Trump has accomplished more than any other at this point in the adminisration.So far he is handling North Korea,both parties want something loosen sanctions or give up nukes.If they actually do that then there will be security guarantee's for Kim.Kim sacked a number of key leaders that dont agree with his regime in the past week or so.

That odd state where America spits on its allies and shakes hands with a dictator.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

That odd state where America spits on its allies and shakes hands with a dictator.

:rofl:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The US is a powerful player and people loved to hate it, before the US would tolerate the double standard of "I hate you, but give me money and guns so I will hate you a tiny bit less". The US was not getting a lot out of those relationships and China has been maneuvering to to undercut Western industry and have everyone by the trade and resource balls. It's not surprising China is pissed. Canada's problem is is that we look like a sideshow, but actually play a bigger part in the US economy than realized. Punishing us, is going to have repercussions on both sides. That lack of understanding of the shared economic role, goes as far back as 1812. Canada's failure has been always to reliant on the US and that puts us in a weak negotiation position. 

 

[GAP]

Some of the rhetoric from the original NAFTA negotiations was the idealistic goal of bringing Mexico's standard up to the equivalent of the US & Canada.....

That has not happened, likely will never happen for a variety of reasons....

So why are we clinging to the original ideal? Let there be free trade deals with the US, but separately.

:2c:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Because if Canada dumps Mexico for those reasons, then they claim racism and that will taint Trudeau.

 

[GAP]

Well Goodness...........we wouldn't want the hair to be tainted...... :facepalm:

 

[FJAG]

Some of the rhetoric from the original NAFTA negotiations was the idealistic goal of bringing Mexico's standard up to the equivalent of the US & Canada.....

That has not happened, likely will never happen for a variety of reasons....

So why are we clinging to the original ideal? Let there be free trade deals with the US, but separately.

:2c:

Trade arrangements between multiple countries are generally stronger and make it harder for any one country to get an individual advantage over the others. This is why the EU has created a trading block and why the TPP was created to create similar advantages to the pacific regions.

Trump wants out of these deals because it is the single largest economy in the world and has a dominant position in any trade deals made with a single country. Basically its a "divide and conquer" philosophy. It is for this specific reason that country's like Germany will not (and cannot) make independent deals with the US. Deals are done as a group by the EU.

Canada gains strength in NAFTA by being partnered with Mexico despite the fact that Mexico has a cheaper labour force. We knew that going in but still believed (and still do believe) that we are stronger in NAFTA with Mexico than without them.

:cheers:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Till they sucked the auto building trade from us. We can't compete dollar for dollar, only on QC (as long as management and unions do their bit.)

 

[Remius]

Interesting.  There is a primary tonight.  Tariffs are put in place just before.

Last time it was just before a primary in Pennsylvania wasn’t it?

 

[FJAG]

Till they sucked the auto building trade from us. We can't compete dollar for dollar, only on QC (as long as management and unions do their bit.)

But even this has trade-offs. The auto industry is so competitive that cost savings by the companies actually translate into cheaper cars for consumers. Yes there are lost jobs but you offset (sometimes more, sometimes less) with greater consumer purchasing power. You lose some manufacturing jobs but gain on the sales and service side.

As an example better buying power all I have to do is look at my patio. Cheaper Chinese steel products (I'll leave aside electronics) make garden furniture relatively inexpensive. I've got tables and chairs and lounges and gazebos up the yingyang all manufactured in China and bought locally at a reasonable price (even after overseas shipping and the usual high retail markup).

While I'm also sad to see manufacturing jobs leaving here, its not as simple as blaming international trade. Add in high electricity/energy costs in Ontario for manufacturers, expensive unions, the ever increasing use of robotics, tax burdens, an education policy that rewards meritocracy, complex government regulations etc and you can see the problem is much more complex than one dog whistle issue.

:cheers:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There is merit in your argument, until there are no consumers with spare cash to buy the cheap goods. Once you lose the majority of the middle class, Canada's retail sector will crash as it is already overbuilt, which then impacts commercial real estate and construction, impacting remaining resource jobs supplying goods to the construction industry.

You need a influx of cheaper goods to keep companies somewhat honest, at the same time creating enough secure decent paying jobs to supply your domestic markets and niche areas where you can successfully export to keep the trade balance. China has been playing this game for awhile, denying access to it's markets, while demanding and enticing people to open theirs fully to them.