CDN/US Covid-related political discussion

[daftandbarmy]

We can see third world status from here....

Lawrie McFarlane: If Ottawa continues on current path, public sector will bear scars for years
​

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer has published a pre-budget offering that reminds you of that scene at the beginning of the 1998 move Armageddon in which a massive asteroid slams into Earth, shattering continents and causing an extinction-level event.
All right, an exaggeration perhaps. Not even the federal Liberals could blow up the planet. But they certainly know how to blow up our country’s fiscal security.

The PBO report puts the 2020-2021 deficit at a staggering $363.4 billion, more than the entire budget planned for that year. And note, that figure does not include additional stimulus funding of $70 billion to $100 billion earmarked in the government’s Fall Economic Statement.
The reason for that omission? Because no one knows where the stimulus money went, who has it, or even if it was spent. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is playing hide and seek with $100 billion.

But to stay with the raw numbers, a deficit north of $350 billion is more than double any federal shortfall since the Second World War, and that’s allowing for inflation.

And that can only mean one of two things: either sharply higher taxes, or across-the-board economizing that will take the heads off essential and inessential services alike. And the services we care most about, health care and social programs, will be the hardest hit, because that’s where all the money is.

In effect, if the federal government continues on its ruinous path, our public sector will bear the scars for years to come, long after the coronavirus pandemic is over.

Lawrie McFarlane: If Ottawa continues on current path, public sector will bear scars for years

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer has published a pre-budget offering that reminds you of that scene at the beginning of the 1998 move Armageddon in which a massive asteroid slams into Earth, shattering continents and causing an extinction-level

www.timescolonist.com

 

[Altair]

We can see third world status from here....

Lawrie McFarlane: If Ottawa continues on current path, public sector will bear scars for years​

​

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer has published a pre-budget offering that reminds you of that scene at the beginning of the 1998 move Armageddon in which a massive asteroid slams into Earth, shattering continents and causing an extinction-level event.
All right, an exaggeration perhaps. Not even the federal Liberals could blow up the planet. But they certainly know how to blow up our country’s fiscal security.

The PBO report puts the 2020-2021 deficit at a staggering $363.4 billion, more than the entire budget planned for that year. And note, that figure does not include additional stimulus funding of $70 billion to $100 billion earmarked in the government’s Fall Economic Statement.
The reason for that omission? Because no one knows where the stimulus money went, who has it, or even if it was spent. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is playing hide and seek with $100 billion.

But to stay with the raw numbers, a deficit north of $350 billion is more than double any federal shortfall since the Second World War, and that’s allowing for inflation.

And that can only mean one of two things: either sharply higher taxes, or across-the-board economizing that will take the heads off essential and inessential services alike. And the services we care most about, health care and social programs, will be the hardest hit, because that’s where all the money is.

In effect, if the federal government continues on its ruinous path, our public sector will bear the scars for years to come, long after the coronavirus pandemic is over.

Lawrie McFarlane: If Ottawa continues on current path, public sector will bear scars for years

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer has published a pre-budget offering that reminds you of that scene at the beginning of the 1998 move Armageddon in which a massive asteroid slams into Earth, shattering continents and causing an extinction-level

www.timescolonist.com

Okay, but which western country isn't in this boat?

The UK is running a deficit somewhere around 300 billion pounds, (511billion CAD)

France is around 315 billion Euros(11.4 percent of GDP, and around 483 billion CAD)

And you have the Americans running 3.1 trillion (3.9 trillion CAD)

Everyone is in the same boat, with a lot of countries going above 100 percent of GDP in debt loads.

Every country is going to need to tackle this post pandemic spending.

The likely reason we haven't seen the Canadian dollar drop for example, with the government printing this much money, is because everyone else is printing money in equal amounts.

 

[Weinie]

Okay, but which western country isn't in this boat?

The UK is running a deficit somewhere around 300 billion pounds, (511billion CAD)

France is around 315 billion Euros(11.4 percent of GDP, and around 483 billion CAD)

And you have the Americans running 3.1 trillion (3.9 trillion CAD)

Everyone is in the same boat, with a lot of countries going above 100 percent of GDP in debt loads.

Every country is going to need to tackle this post pandemic spending.

The likely reason we haven't seen the Canadian dollar drop for example, with the government printing this much money, is because everyone else is printing money in equal amounts.

OK. So 2 of the top three countries in terms of where Canadian exports go are about to face a financial reckoning. I'm not an economist, but contractions in their economies will impact their imports. Shouldn't we be preparing for this?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

During the Chretien years I remember our SAR Cutter tied to the wall for lack of fuel and fish hatcheries getting shut down thanks to having to pay for JT Fathers fun and games. Post-Trudeau 2.0 will it take 2 or 4 PM's to pay off the costs of this one?

 

[Altair]

OK. So 2 of the top three countries in terms of where Canadian exports go are about to face a financial reckoning. I'm not an economist, but contractions in their economies will impact their imports. Shouldn't we be preparing for this?

Hahahaha...

Sure.

But it would go about the same way as preparing for a conventional war versus the USA. You can do some things, but nothing is going to change the outcome.

What we can hope for is low interest rates while the economy rebounds. 300-400 billion costs an extra 3-4 billion a year to service at low interest rates, and while that is high, Canada was running deficits of 20-30 billion before the pandemic, so an extra 3-4 billion a year isn't crippling.

The same holds true for our allies, just keep interest rates on that debt low and the shock can be absorbed. Where we get into issues is if those rates start to rise, especially before the post pandemic bump of economic activity hits. But the BOC has said that low rates are here for the next few years and so far our credit rating hasn't been greatly effected, because, again, everyone is racking up the debt right now so we don't look bad in comparison.

 

[Weinie]

Hahahaha...

Sure.

But it would go about the same way as preparing for a conventional war versus the USA. You can do some things, but nothing is going to change the outcome.

What we can hope for is low interest rates while the economy rebounds. 300-400 billion costs an extra 3-4 billion a year to service at low interest rates, and while that is high, Canada was running deficits of 20-30 billion before the pandemic, so an extra 3-4 billion a year isn't crippling.

The same holds true for our allies, just keep interest rates on that debt low and the shock can be absorbed. Where we get into issues is if those rates start to rise, especially before the post pandemic bump of economic activity hits. But the BOC has said that low rates are here for the next few years and so far our credit rating hasn't been greatly effected, because, again, everyone is racking up the debt right now so we don't look bad in comparison.

OK. So rather than try to be better, we all will be worse off.

Keep polishing that turd.

 

[Altair]

OK. So rather than try to be better, we all will be worse off.

Keep polishing that turd.

By all means, lets try to be better. There are definitely some things that can be done to best prepare the country for when the federal stimulus turns off and it comes time to pay for all this spending.

But if Canada is in dire straights at debt to GDP levels at 100, then watch out for the USA (108), the UK (111.5),France (118), Italy (160), Japan, (240).

And if debt to GDP is so bad, expect those countries to face severe economy disruption and drag, and at that point, whatever export driven Canada can do domestically is simply a speed bump in the way of a out of control 18 wheeler.

I prefer to believe that those countries can manage their higher debt loans, and if they can, Canada can.

 

[Altair]

Additional support for Ontario to fight the COVID-19 outbreak

The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, today announced that the federal government is working to provide additional, emergency support to fight the COVID-19 outbreak in Ontario.

pm.gc.ca

Since the start of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Canada has been working to do whatever it takes – for as long as it takes – to protect and support Canadians. As the number of new cases in Ontario continues to escalate to unprecedented levels due to variants of concern, we are working with the Province to protect the health and safety of Ontarians and support the capacity of our health care system.

The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, today announced that the federal government is working to provide additional, emergency support to fight the COVID-19 outbreak in Ontario.

This includes:

• Sending federal health care staff and equipment to the front lines in Ontario to care for people across the province, particularly in areas that are most impacted.
• Boosting rapid testing to help stop the spread of the virus, and working with municipalities and businesses to deploy them to hot spots across Ontario, support contact tracing and isolation, and make workplaces safer.
• Investing $84.2 million to support voluntary safe isolation sites, including across Ontario. These sites have already helped 3,900 Ontarians isolate safely to prevent the spread of the virus.
• Signing a bilateral agreement between the Government of Canada and the Government of Ontario to enhance virtual health services in the province. This agreement comes with $46 million in funding to expand Ontario’s efforts on virtual health care during the pandemic.
• Providing an additional supply of tocilizumab and other needed drugs for Ontario through reallocation from other provinces and territories. Tocilizumab is used to treat severe pneumonia in COVID-19 patients.

These measures build on yesterday’s announcement that the federal government is providing a two-month extension on two Mobile Health Units (MHU), until June 30. These MHU were approved in January and are currently deployed in Toronto and Hamilton. The federal government also stands ready to deploy the Canadian Red Cross to help the province with its mobile vaccination teams, and the Canadian Armed Forces is working with partners to determine what additional support they can provide to Ontario.

The Government of Canada is also working closely with provinces and territories to facilitate extra support for Ontario, including sending medical supplies and health care workers, and has offered to cover the costs.

Eight of every ten dollars spent in Canada to respond to the pandemic have come from the federal government. This has included support through the purchase of vaccines, personal protective equipment, rapid testing, contact tracing, and funding to help make schools safer for students and teachers. We will continue to provide the provinces and territories support and take a Team Canada approach to beating this virus, so we can keep all Canadians safe and healthy.

Looks like help is on the way for Ontario, but interestingly, at least in terms or rapid testing and contact tracing, seeming to bypass the government of Ontario.

Either way, some good news for Ontario at least, with help from the other provinces also being discussed.

 

[brihard]

I’m curious if any of those additional staff will be critical care trained doctors or nurses. That will be where lives are saved or lost- the ability to staff these physical beds the province has promised. Without qualified staff, the additional beds are an illusion.

 

[daftandbarmy]

OK. So 2 of the top three countries in terms of where Canadian exports go are about to face a financial reckoning. I'm not an economist, but contractions in their economies will impact their imports. Shouldn't we be preparing for this?

Looks like we'll have to be prepared for the opposite, which we aren't either of course

One Year After the Pandemic Struck, Global Economy About to Boom​

The reversal in fortunes will benefit all regions of the world, forecasters say.

After suffering the worst downturn since World War II, the global economy is poised for a synchronized recovery the likes of which has not been seen since 2017.

Led by the United States, which is expected to see a rate of growth not experienced since the heydays of the mid-1980s, all regions of the world are projected to see significant improvements from the pandemic-driven dive they took in 2020.

​

"World economies rarely move in lockstep," Morgan Stanley noted in its global economic forecast published in December. "In fact, a synchronous global recovery, where growth in both developed and emerging markets accelerate in the same year, has happened only a dozen times over the past 40 years – the last in 2017."

The bank is forecasting a 6.4% increase in global gross domestic product this year. In the United States, the estimate is for 5.9% growth, while the eurozone will come in at 5%, the United Kingdom at 5.3%, Japan at 2.4%, China at 9% and India at 9.8%.

The reversal of fortune is staggering given the depths to which the global economy plunged a year ago, the result of many countries essentially closing their doors in the second quarter as the coronavirus raged across continents. "Second-quarter GDP growth turned negative for every one of the 37 countries in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)," Goldman Sachs said in January. "More broadly, 86% of the nearly 200 countries for which the IMF (International Monetary Fund) has released updates are expected to see their GDP decline in 2020."

And the virus will leave lasting scars. As of February, about 10 million people remain unemployed in the U.S., and women's participation in the labor force dropped 2 percentage points from February 2020 to February 2021. Meanwhile, the Pew Research Center reported in March that the global middle class likely lost 54 million people while the ranks of the poor grew by 131 million on account of the pandemic.
Still, the speed of the recovery will likely be equal to the speed of the decline, Goldman Sachs noted, with every one of the OECD countries posting positive GDP in the third quarter.

The Recession Was Not a Normal One

Two reasons account for this turnaround. One is that the recession brought on by COVID-19 was not a financial crisis or the result of economic imbalances, as many prior recessions were. The other is the sheer scope of the governmental response was unprecedented. Globally, monetary and fiscal stimulus – ranging from central banks cutting interest rates to near zero levels and pumping cash into their economies through the purchases of government securities to trillions of dollars in direct payments made to residents – totaled $21 trillion last year, according to Goldman Sachs. That is roughly equal to the entire GDP of the U.S., the world's largest economy.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2021-04-13/global-economy-set-for-a-post-pandemic-boom

 

[Weinie]

Looks like we'll have to be prepared for the opposite, which we aren't either of course

One Year After the Pandemic Struck, Global Economy About to Boom​

The reversal in fortunes will benefit all regions of the world, forecasters say.

After suffering the worst downturn since World War II, the global economy is poised for a synchronized recovery the likes of which has not been seen since 2017.

Led by the United States, which is expected to see a rate of growth not experienced since the heydays of the mid-1980s, all regions of the world are projected to see significant improvements from the pandemic-driven dive they took in 2020.

​

"World economies rarely move in lockstep," Morgan Stanley noted in its global economic forecast published in December. "In fact, a synchronous global recovery, where growth in both developed and emerging markets accelerate in the same year, has happened only a dozen times over the past 40 years – the last in 2017."

The bank is forecasting a 6.4% increase in global gross domestic product this year. In the United States, the estimate is for 5.9% growth, while the eurozone will come in at 5%, the United Kingdom at 5.3%, Japan at 2.4%, China at 9% and India at 9.8%.

The reversal of fortune is staggering given the depths to which the global economy plunged a year ago, the result of many countries essentially closing their doors in the second quarter as the coronavirus raged across continents. "Second-quarter GDP growth turned negative for every one of the 37 countries in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)," Goldman Sachs said in January. "More broadly, 86% of the nearly 200 countries for which the IMF (International Monetary Fund) has released updates are expected to see their GDP decline in 2020."

And the virus will leave lasting scars. As of February, about 10 million people remain unemployed in the U.S., and women's participation in the labor force dropped 2 percentage points from February 2020 to February 2021. Meanwhile, the Pew Research Center reported in March that the global middle class likely lost 54 million people while the ranks of the poor grew by 131 million on account of the pandemic.
Still, the speed of the recovery will likely be equal to the speed of the decline, Goldman Sachs noted, with every one of the OECD countries posting positive GDP in the third quarter.

The Recession Was Not a Normal One

Two reasons account for this turnaround. One is that the recession brought on by COVID-19 was not a financial crisis or the result of economic imbalances, as many prior recessions were. The other is the sheer scope of the governmental response was unprecedented. Globally, monetary and fiscal stimulus – ranging from central banks cutting interest rates to near zero levels and pumping cash into their economies through the purchases of government securities to trillions of dollars in direct payments made to residents – totaled $21 trillion last year, according to Goldman Sachs. That is roughly equal to the entire GDP of the U.S., the world's largest economy.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2021-04-13/global-economy-set-for-a-post-pandemic-boom

But we, Canada, will have a more than $350B deficit this year, forecast for $150B next year, and by 2026, our deficit will be around $20B dollars. In that period, we rack up $600B in deficit on top of our already accrued deficit. That's more than 1 trillion dollars in debt, or about 31,000 per every taxpayer in the country.

Not a reversal of fortune, it is a pile-on. International interest rates will not remain this low. Debt servicing will soar, and the services that Canadians have come to consider as "rights" will become increasingly more expensive. Cue everything that supports this.

I had hoped to leave my kids in a better place.

 

[daftandbarmy]

But we, Canada, will have a more than $350B deficit this year, forecast for $150B next year, and by 2026, our deficit will be around $20B dollars. In that period, we rack up $600B in deficit on top of our already accrued deficit. That's more than 1 trillion dollars in debt, or about 31,000 per every taxpayer in the country.

Not a reversal of fortune, it is a pile-on. International interest rates will not remain this low. Debt servicing will soar, and the services that Canadians have come to consider as "rights" will become increasingly more expensive. Cue everything that supports this.

I had hoped to leave my kids in a better place.

The world needs our stuff. They'll need a crap ton more of it when the 'good times roll', starting next year

Nothing I saw in the Trudeau budget seemed oriented towards improving the capacity and throughput of our (really crappy) supply chain infrastructure though, unlike the recent Biden announcements for the US infrastructure rebuild.

Below is a snapshot of oil and gas contributions to our GDP. This is how we pay for schools, hip replacements, welfare and other social programs we are good at taking for granted. Sorry windfarm/solar fruitcakes, the big leagues still need our hydrocarbons, as do we, and you don't do squat for Aunt Mabel's diabetes treatments.

Global demand for our stuff will grow exponentially. Are we ready? Nope.

Oil Sands and Canada’s Economy​

Canadian oil and natural gas provided $105 billion to Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020, supported more than 500,000 jobs across the country in 2019 and provided $10 billion in average annual revenue to governments for the period 2017 to 2019. This revenue helps pay for roads, school and hospitals.

Over the next six years, the oil sands industry is expected to pay an estimated $8 billion in provincial and federal taxes (Economic Recovery Pathways For Canada’s Energy Industry 2020-2025, CERI).

Almost every region in Canada has benefitted from oil sands development through job creation and economic activity.

Economics & Affordability - CAPP | A Unified Voice for Canada's Upstream Oil and Gas Industry

www.capp.ca

 

[Altair]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384647379476000768

so looks like 12 million Pfizer between may 31st and July 4th.

Not including Moderna, not including AZ

48 million by Canada day, easy.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Canada - Canada.ca

COVID-19 vaccination coverage across Canada by demographics and key populations. Updated every Friday at 12:00 PM Eastern Time.

health-infobase.canada.ca

Only 2.3 % properly vaccinated according to federal govt

 

[Altair]

COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Canada - Canada.ca

COVID-19 vaccination coverage across Canada by demographics and key populations. Updated every Friday at 12:00 PM Eastern Time.

health-infobase.canada.ca

Only 2.3 % properly vaccinated according to federal govt

You are most amusing.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

You don't trust the feds own numbers??

 

[Good2Golf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384647379476000768

so looks like 12 million Pfizer between may 31st and July 4th.

Not including Moderna, not including AZ

48 million by Canada day, easy.

Interestingly, when you run those numbers supplied vs administered, for example, the gap that some scream about doesn’t numerically tally up later in each week...it’s like having a delivery land on your door step then someone scream why isn’t it all distributed.

So let’s do a bit of math with Altair’s numbers, and mindful of the fact that Pfizer is the largest share of deliveries to date...so, last week, the Feds delivered 395,460 doses to Ontario. That over 7 days requires at least 56,500 administrations per day...some people lose their mind that the doses aren’t jabbed within 24hr of initial delivery, but if the province is administering 80,000-100,000/day and Moderna and AZ are smaller than Pfizer deliveries, then it seems that the numbers don’t make Ontario to be the disaster that some believe.

Maybe something more visual will help understand the ongoing gap issue relative to the whole effort:

Ontario’s gap over the last three weeks:


Canada’s gap over the same period:

...looks like the gaps are proportionately quite similar. As a 1-shot A-Z guy, I think Ontario isn’t the horrendous crap show some go to great lengths to portray...every province is doing its best and Ontario is remarkably average to the rest of Camada in how it’s doing.

A little more accuracy/honesty from all our politicians, especially not trying to damn by faint praise/demonize AstraZeneca, would go a long way to getting more Canadians protected. Good on Ontario and Alberta for lowering A-Z to 40-years.

 

[Altair]

You don't trust the feds own numbers??

The PROVINCES are following NACI recommendation to vaccinate everyone while delaying the second dose, so naturally the fully vaccinated number is going to be low.

Nobody is trying for it at the moment.

Which is why you are most amusing.

 

[Altair]

Interestingly, when you run those numbers supplied vs administered, for example, the gap that some scream about doesn’t numerically tally up later in each week...it’s like having a delivery land on your door step then someone scream why isn’t it all distributed.

So let’s do a bit of math with Altair’s numbers, and mindful of the fact that Pfizer is the largest share of deliveries to date...so, last week, the Feds delivered 395,460 doses to Ontario. That over 7 days requires at least 56,500 administrations per day...some people lose their mind that the doses aren’t jabbed within 24hr of initial delivery, but if the province is administering 80,000-100,000/day and Moderna and AZ are smaller than Pfizer deliveries, then it seems that the numbers don’t make Ontario to be the disaster that some believe.

Maybe something more visual will help understand the ongoing gap issue relative to the whole effort:

Ontario’s gap over the last three weeks:
View attachment 64965

Canada’s gap over the same period:
View attachment 64966
...looks like the gaps are proportionately quite similar. As a 1-shot A-Z guy, I think Ontario isn’t the horrendous crap show some go to great lengths to portray...every province is doing its best and Ontario is remarkably average to the rest of Camada in how it’s doing.

A little more accuracy/honesty from all our politicians, especially not trying to damn by faint praise/demonize AstraZeneca, would go a long way to getting more Canadians protected. Good on Ontario and Alberta for lowering A-Z to 40-years.

PM, opposition leaders booking AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine appointments

With Ontario now allowing adults aged 40 and older to sign up for AstraZeneca COVID-19 appointments, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland are in the process of booking their first doses, as opposition leaders schedule their shots too.

www.ctvnews.ca

OTTAWA -- With Ontario now allowing adults aged 40 and older to sign up for AstraZeneca COVID-19 appointments, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland are in the process of booking their first doses, as opposition leaders schedule their shots too.

That might help.

 

[Altair]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384668328954941441

Dr Isaac Bogoch is on the Ontario Vaccine panel, so not just some random twitter nutter.

Looks like my idea to open AZ to the public was a good one.

Almost at the finish line.