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Collapse of the Assad Regime

Some rumors that Russia and Iran have potentially made a deal with HTS. Despite the usual internet PSYOP, there isn't a whole lot of action from either party. Even the Shia Militia piece turned out to be a big nothing burger.

Perhaps, Russia gets to keep its port and its airbase and HTS has blessed this in exchange for tacit approval to do what they are doing.
Maybe for a short period, but I can't help but think there are a lot of people that want to extract revenge on what Russia did to Syria in regards to carpet bombing?
 
Moving fast now. Curious to see if any holdouts (eg senior military?) try to hold on to power or if they race each other to bail out.
 
So, where does this leave the major players (Turkey, Israel and Iran), once the dust settles?
 
Looks like Assad is confirmed to have fled, and the rebels are declaring victory. I’ve not read of much fighting anywhere.

Several prisons have been liberated and there will be some utter charnel house horror being found there.

A lot of folks are trying to figure out the fate of RB9218, an IL-76 that took off from Damascus, flew a weird route out towards Homs, passed over Homs, made several sharp turns, descended rapidly and went off radar with no airstrip nearby… Possible shoot down. Rumors Assad was on it. It I have no idea of what weight to put to that. Definitely an atypical flight path.
 

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Looks like Assad is confirmed to have fled, and the rebels are declaring victory. I’ve not read of much fighting anywhere.

Several prisons have been liberated and there will be some utter charnel house horror being found there.

A lot of folks are trying to figure out the fate of RB9218, an IL-76 that took off from Damascus, flew a weird route out towards Homs, passed over Homs, made several sharp turns, descended rapidly and went off radar with no airstrip nearby… Possible shoot down. Rumors Assad was on it. It I have no idea of what weight to put to that. Definitely an atypical flight path.

Someone got ‘Gherkined.”
 
A lot of HTS fighters were rolling dirty in F250s....

The showdown of the ages 😄

I love how no matter what is done, Arab Armies always descend in to some sort of Mad Maxesque fighting force 😄
And if you have any plumbing issues:
la-la-fg-plumber-jpg-20151214.jpg
 
And if you have any plumbing issues:
la-la-fg-plumber-jpg-20151214.jpg
Gun plumbing that is....




The SAA simply faded away. It appears there was a large section of the Govt that had cut deals with HTS and large dissatisfaction with the Assad Regime, even in their heartlands on the coast.

Note that the rebels have made no move to attack Latakia or Tartus. Perhaps we will see the Balkanization of the Country with Israel taking a chunk of Southern Syria as well?
 
And if you have any plumbing issues:
la-la-fg-plumber-jpg-20151214.jpg

 
How do you say "perp walk" in Arabic?

So, where does this leave the major players (Turkey, Israel and Iran), once the dust settles?
Calling dibs on bits of Syria, for starters?
 
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I would think that the Golan Heights are now pretty much Israeli…
I guess this makes them Israeli-er :) LATE EDIT TO ADD: ISR media reports say there's a bit of UNDOF action as well ...
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Does that make the posts ISR "finders keepers" prizes?
A lot is happening fast. Seems Iran's whole geopolitical plan has fallen apart. If Israel is smart they would set up a substation in Syria to provide power to the locals in the area and basic goods.

If the Turks are as pro-HTS as they say, the Kurds are facing yet another BOHICA moment - and Turkey better hope HTS is happy to continue playing with them in the medium-to-longer term (after all, they are listed as a bad guy group even in Turkey, in spite of the "thanks for the help with keeping a grip on those Kurds" backing from Turkey).
 
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The Kurds are not one big happy family, some Kurds have cut deals with Turkey and others hate them with every breath. The leader of HTS is saying all the right things. Only time will tell how this works out. I hope for Syria and Lebanon sake they find a way to focus on rebuilding their country. Hezbollah must be starting to wonder if a vacation to Iran might be a really good idea right now. I am sure a lot of knives in Lebanon and Syria are being sharpened and Hezbollah knows that what arms it has is what it will have to fight with for a long time.

Israel will hit some more Iranian/Hezbollah sites base on intelligence and is likley sending messages to the various groups about it's red lines and what it is willing to negotiate on. Finishing off Hamas ASAP will remove a ongoing sore that would unite the Sunni's in Syria against Israel as well. KSA and UAE are likely to support the Syrian transitional government and council them on keeping the anti-Israeli/American rhetoric on low volume.
 
So, knock on effect from Ukraine? Russia pulling all their assets out of Syria to fight in Ukraine. I'm looking forward to seeing if Russia loses their naval base in Tartus. That would be entertaining and improve Med security for NATO.
 
So, knock on effect from Ukraine? Russia pulling all their assets out of Syria to fight in Ukraine. I'm looking forward to seeing if Russia loses their naval base in Tartus. That would be entertaining and improve Med security for NATO.

I do believe they have already abandoned Tartus.
 
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