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Election 2011

With steady leakage from the Greens, the left wing vote could now be in play for the Liberals and NDP. The 6.3% nationally won't create a government, even if it all went to the Liberals, but it might shake up some of the riding's where the Liberals and NDP are close.

I'm still wondering if the CPC will make a push for the "Blue Liberals" to cross the floor after the election. A coalition of the winners would create a stable majority and finally allow Canadians to get on with life.
 
Thucydides said:
With steady leakage from the Greens, the left wing vote could now be in play for the Liberals and NDP. The 6.3% nationally won't create a government, even if it all went to the Liberals, but it might shake up some of the riding's where the Liberals and NDP are close.

I'm still wondering if the CPC will make a push for the "Blue Liberals" to cross the floor after the election. A coalition of the winners would create a stable majority and finally allow Canadians to get on with life.


The Blue Liberals, AKA the Manley Liberals will agree with the Good Grey Globe on economic nationalism by stealth. Hell’s bells, even I agree with most of this editorial, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/the-stealthy-return-of-economic-nationalism/article1972114/
[GLOBE EDITORIAL

The stealthy return of economic nationalism


From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Last updated Wednesday, Apr. 06, 2011

In the thickets of the mostly middle-of-the-road Liberal election platform lurks an element of reborn economic nationalism. The document criticizes the Conservatives for not intervening in the purchases by non-Canadian firms of Inco Ltd., Alcan Inc., Stelco Inc. and the assets of Nortel Networks Corp., and complains that BHP Billiton Ltd.’s proposed purchase of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan was only fended off by “intense pressure” on the government. The clear implication is that all these transactions ought to have been stopped.

Worse, the Liberals want to make the criteria for screening of foreign takeovers more strenuous. Taking their cue from the “strategic assets” concept that was made much of in the Potash controversy, they would institutionalize this slippery phrase by building it into the Investment Canada Act – where it is now mercifully absent.

None of this, however, would go as far as the National Energy Program of the 1980s, or the earlier attempts of Walter Gordon, the Liberal finance minister from 1963 to 1965, to reverse the postwar trend to greater American ownership of large Canadian businesses.

The Liberals are quite right to call for clarification of the “net benefit” test in the Investment Canada Act and more disclosure of Investment Canada’s procedures. Before the election, the Conservatives could well have accomplished this, and should have tried to amend the Investment Canada Act, by drawing upon the recommendations of the Competition Policy Review Panel of 2008, led by Lynton “Red” Wilson.

Immediately after the passage on foreign takeovers, the Liberal platform goes on to advocate the identification of certain sectors as Canadian champions. The designation of national champions, also known as the picking of winners, has long been a manifestation of economic nationalism, too. These champion sectors would be encouraged by new tax incentives – part of a pattern of violations of the principle of tax neutrality, of which both the Conservatives and Liberals are increasingly guilty.

The Ignatieff Liberals are far from the nationalistic socialism of the 1960s, and they profess their esteem for foreign investment – yet they are poised to take some steps in the wrong direction.


One place where I disagree with the Globe (and with the Ignatieff the Liberals) is the need to “clarify” the “net benefit” provision. Sometimes a little ambiguity is a good thing in politics and in policy. Deciding on whether something is or will be a “net benefit to Canada” is, probably, impossible in any concrete sense – it will almost always be a subjective, arguable calculation. Sometimes subjective things are best left ill-defined.

Anyway, there are Manley Liberals and, according to the Globe and Mail there are Ignatieff Liberals, too. Maybe the twain* shall separate.


__________
* Remember Kiplimg's The Ballad of East and West?

OH, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet,
Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God’s great Judgment Seat;
But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor Breed, nor Birth,
When two strong men stand face to face, tho’ they come from the ends of the earth!

etc
 
Headlines (News Releases)
Communications, Public Affairs & Marketing


Liberals cutting into Harper majority, research institute finds
Apr 6/11| For Immediate Release

Contact: Barry Kay, Department of Political Science
Wilfrid Laurier University
519-884-0710 ext. 3362 or 519-886-5668 or bkay@wlu.ca

or  Andrea Perella, Director
Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy
519-884-0710 ext. 2719 or aperrella@wlu.ca



WATERLOO – An analysis of new polls projects another minority for the Conservative Party, according to The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP).

A LISPOP analysis of recent polls projects a seat distribution of 150 seats for the Harper Conservatives, a loss of seven seats over two weeks. Today’s projection is based on an aggregation of polls conducted by Nanos Research, Ekos and Leger Marketing between March 28 and April 2, 2011, with a blended sample of about 8,000 individuals. The regional swing model also projects 74 seats for the Liberals, 33 seats for the NDP and 51 seats for the Bloc Québécois.

Much of the shift has occurred in seat-rich Ontario, where the Liberals have recaptured some lost ground, although this currently translates only to a modest three-seat gain, all at the expense of the Conservatives.

The Conservative numbers hold amid a string of ethical controversies that carried into the campaign.

“The story at the moment is that there hasn't been much change in the last two months despite the political games,” said Barry Kay, an associate of LISPOP. “As with other recent projections since early February, the overall numbers represent only marginal shifting which hardly exceeds sampling error in most regions.”

A tightening of the race is not a surprise.

“Historically, whoever is leading at the beginning of the campaign usually loses support, sometimes dramatically,” said Kay. “The most dramatic were John Turner in 1984 and Kim Campbell in 1993. Both were ahead in pre-campaign polls, but lost 20 points.”

The seat projection is one of several features on LISPOP’s election tracker coverage of the 2011 campaign. Visitors to www.wlu.ca/lispop can view a map of all federal constituencies, colour-coded to reflect the standing of each of the main parties and general level of competitiveness, as per LISPOP’s analysis of the latest surveys.

Currently, 32 seats are designated as “too close to call,” which is an increase from 26 ridings from LISPOP’s March 25 projection. Another 29 show one party “leaning”: eight for the Conservatives, nine for the Liberals, 10 for the NDP, and two for the Bloc Québécois.

Three Toronto-area ridings – Don Valley West, York Centre and Ajax-Pickering – show a slight Liberal lead, a change from LISPOP’s previous projection which had these ridings categorized as “too close to call.” Liberal standing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton has improved from “leaning” to the more comfortable “leading.”

Liberal gains in Ontario are also making some seats more hotly contested. Kitchener-Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga-Erindale, Oak Ridges-Markam, Brampton-West previously showed a slight Conservative lead, but are now too close to call.

Updates will be announced through LISPOP’s Twitter account, @LaurierInst.

About LISPOP: The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy is a research centre at Wilfrid Laurier University which studies issues pertaining to the creation, use and representation of public opinion in the policy process. The institute serves as a catalyst to promote individual and collaborative research on these issues. In addition, the institute monitors the practices and claims of the public opinion and interest group industries, and serves as an educational resource to the university and the larger community on questions and issues pertaining to those claims and practices.


http://www.wlu.ca/news_detail.php?grp_id=28&nws_id=7706

 
The future, if the LPC becomes the government with their published Red Book new "NEP" and tax changes for the oil industry.

From the Blog: http://sortofpolitical.blogspot.com/2011/04/journalism-just-does-not-get-any-better.html

"Journalism just does not get any better than this! Licia Corbella writes...
On Dec. 19, 2009 the Calgary Herald ran this remarkable article by Editor, Licia Corbella. It's relevance to the election in front of us simply cannot be understated!"


Playing fairy godmother to Quebec not so fun


Calgary Herald- Dec 19 2009 - Licia Corbella

Today, let's have some fun and play fairy godmother to Quebec. Let's grant the province the wish it articulated in Copenhagen. Wave the magic wand and poof, wish granted. Shut down Alberta's oilsands, except, since it's Quebec making the wish, we have to call it tarsands, even though it's not tar they use to run their Bombardier planes, trains and Skidoos.

Ah, at last! The blight on Canada's reputation shut down. All those dastardly workers from across Canada living in Fort McMurray, Calgary and Edmonton out of jobs, including those waitresses, truck drivers, nurses, teachers, doctors, pilots, engineers etc. They can all go on employment insurance like Ontario autoworkers and Quebec parts makers!

Closing down Alberta's oil industry would immediately stop the production of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. Supply and demand being what it is, oil prices will go up and therefore the cost at the pump will go up, too, increasing the cost of everything else.

But lost jobs in Alberta and across the country along with higher gas prices are a small price to pay to save the world and not "embarrass" Quebecers on the world stage. Not to worry though, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Nigeria can come to the rescue. You know, the guys who pump money into al-Qaeda and help Osama bin Laden target those Van Doos fighting in Afghanistan. Bloody oil is so much nicer than dirty tarsands oil.

Shutting down the oilsands will reduce Canada's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 38.4 Mt (megatonnes). Hooray! It's so fun to be a fairy godmother! While that sounds like a lot, Canada only produces two per cent of the world's man-made GHGs and the oilsands only produce five per cent of Canada's total emissions or 0.1 per cent of the world's emissions. By comparison, the U.S. produces 20.2 per cent of the world's GHG emissions -- 27 per cent of which comes from coal-fired electricity.

The 530 sq.-km piece of land currently disturbed by the tarsands (which is smaller than the John F. Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, Florida at 570 sq. km) must be reclaimed by law and will return to Alberta's 381,000 sq. km of boreal forest, a huge carbon sink. Quebec, of course, has clean hydro power, but more than 13,000 sq. km were drowned for the James Bay hydroelectric project, permanently removing that forest from acting as a carbon sink.

But fairy godmother is digressing all over the place. While the oilsands only produce five per cent of Canada's GHGs, it contributes much more to Canada's economy, with oil and gas making up one-quarter of the value on the TSX alone. Alberta is also the largest net contributor per capita by far to Confederation and there are only two more -- B.C. and Ontario.

Quebec hasn't made a net contribution to the rest of Canada for a very long time. This is not to be critical (after all, fairy godmothers never criticize) it's just a fact.

In 2009, Albertans paid $40.46 billion in income, corporate and other taxes to the federal government and received back just $19.35 billion in services and goods from the feds. That means the rest of Canada got $21.1 billion from Albertans or $5,742 for each and every Alberta man, woman and child. In 2007 (the last year national figures are available), Alberta sent a net contribution of $19.49 billion to the ROC or $5,553 per Albertan -- more than three times what every Ontarian contributes at $1,757. Quebecers, on the other hand, each received $627 net or a total of $8 billion, money which was designed to help "equalize" social programs across the country. Except, that's not what's happening. Quebec has more generous social programs, like (nearly) free university tuition (paid for mostly by Albertans) and cheap provincial day care (paid for mostly by Albertans).

But in this fairy godmother world, poof! those delightful unequal programs have now disappeared! Quel dommage!

The July 2009 Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) report states that between 2008 and 2032, the oilsands will account for 172,000 person-years of employment in Ontario during the construction phase, plus 640,000 for operations over the 25-year period. For Quebec, the oilsands will account for 84,000 person-years of employment during the construction phase, plus 292,000 for operations over the 25-year period. In total, the tarsands are expected to add $1.7 trillion to Canada's GDP over the next 25 years.

Wave wand. Poof. Jobs, gone! This fairy godmother role isn't all it's cracked up to be. So, now that the oil industry has shut down and left Alberta, Alberta has become a have-not province and so has every other province. Equality at last! Hugo Chavez will be so pleased. Meeting our Copenhagen targets suddenly looks possible, as most of us can't afford to drive our cars or buy anything but necessities, so manufacturers have closed their doors and emissions are way down.

The dream of many Quebecers to form their own nation and separate from Canada has died at last. Fairy godmothers always like to look on the bright side. Quebecers finally realize they can't thrive without the ROC. Alas, in Alberta, separatist sentiment has risen dramatically, citizens vote to separate and the oil and gas industry returns. Albertans start to pocket that almost $6,000 for each person that used to get sent elsewhere and now their kids get free tuition.

Fairy godmother's work is done. Wish granted. Quebecers must now sign up for a foreign worker visas to work in Alberta to send their cheques back home so junior can start saving up to pay for college.

lcorbella@theherald.canwest.com
 
Tar = BADBad Alberta!

Asbestos = wonderful insulative materialGood Quebec, for helping the rest of the developing world warm in an ecologically-considerate way!




;)



 
Good2Golf said:
Tar = BADBad Alberta!

Asbestos = wonderful insulative materialGood Quebec, for helping the rest of the developing world warm in an ecologically-considerate way!




;)

What's a little incurable mesothelioma between friends.
 
Maybe Ignatieff did get a "bounce" from his platform in the place where it matters most, Ontario - which has over ⅓ of the seats in the HoC. Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, is a report:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 6, 2011
Close race in Ontario in two new polls

Today's daily Nanos poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail shows very little change from yesterday, but the close race that Nanos has found to be the case in Ontario has been further confirmed by a new release by the Innovative Research Group, an opinion polling firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto. Apparently, we should expect to hear from them periodically during the campaign with a look at the situation in Ontario.

The latest Nanos poll shows a bit of a reset in Ontario, with the Conservatives picking up 3.2 points and the Liberals losing 3.2 points, resulting in a more familiar gap between the two parties than yesterday's Liberal edge. But if we compare the newest IRG poll to Nanos's poll taken on the same dates (April 1-3), we see a similar gap. Innovative Research has the two parties at 39% and 35%, for a gap of four points, while Nanos had the parties at 43% and 37.5% on the same dates, a gap of 5.5 points. Considering the margin of error (though as Innovative Research uses an online panel the sampling margin of error does not apply) those are consistent results.

A closer race in Ontario is an important new reality in this campaign. At it's start, the Conservatives had a double-digit lead in the all-important battleground province. 

Note that Maclean's records support as being at 37% and 33%, respectively. This is before discarding the undecideds. The various reports for the radio networks mention support being at the 39% and 35% noted above and used in the model.

The Innovative Research poll also included a few other questions, and broke down support in Ontario by how people voted in the Toronto municipal election. The Conservatives have about 65% of the Rob Ford vote but only 3% of those who voted for Smitherman and the other candidates. Certainly, having most of Mayor Ford's vote is good news for the Conservatives, but not for their hopes of breaking into downtown Toronto. It was the outskirts of the city that voted for Ford, not the downtown core. But it could put a few of the Liberal MPs on the fringe of Toronto's boundaries at risk.

The Liberals have 18% of the Ford vote, but 51% of the "other" vote. Using the 2010's mayoral election results, we can then estimate that the Conservatives have the support of roughly 33% of the people who voted in the Toronto election, compared to 35% for the Liberals.

Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff have very close favourability ratings in Ontario: 39% for Ignatieff and 37% for Harper. But when it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, Harper gets the edge: 34% to 26%.

Aside from the reset in the Nanos poll in Ontario and the drop of 6.5 points by the Tories in British Columbia (not statistically significant, or at least not yet), there is an interesting result in Quebec.

I've harped on it a lot already, but I was sure that Jack Layton's appearance on Tout le monde en parle, the incredibly popular TV show on Radio-Canada, would result in a bump. His party was up a point in Quebec yesterday and is up another 0.9 points today, so we really could be seeing the effect of that appearance. The NDP is now at 18.8% in Quebec, ahead of the Liberals. A lot of minds have to be made up in Quebec, though, as it is the region with the highest number of undecideds in this poll (27%).

But does this bump in Quebec mean any more seats for the New Democrats? Plugging these results into the projection model (and only these results) gives the Bloc Québécois 50 seats, the Liberals 12, the Conservatives 11, and the NDP two. Outremont and Gatineau are the two NDP seats, and that is even with taking into account the Segma polls released just prior to the start of the campaign showing the NDP well behind in the Outaouais.

This would also put them within range of a few other seats as well. The NDP would be within four points of the Liberals in Hull-Aylmer, seven of the Bloc in Jeanne-Le Ber, and three of the Liberals in Westmount - Ville-Marie (though the NDP are probably riding on Anne Lagacé Dowson's 2008 coattails in that riding in the projection). 

The questions asked by each of the pollsters are as follows: "For those parties you would consider voting federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?" (Nanos). "If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?" (Innovative).


Harper’s majority is impossible without substantial gains in ON.
 
The Innovative Research poll is flawed as it didn't ask balanced questions:

Do you agree or disagree "The Conservative Party is too extreme for me." - no similar question about the Liberal or other parties

"Stephen Harper scares me." - no similar question for the other leaders.

Without equal questions, the bias is magnified. It is improper in this context to infer that if the answer to A is B, then the answer to B is A. This is politics, it is just as likely that the answer to B is C.
 
Morning Analysis
A Tory minority seems as inevitable as its demise
Patrick Brethour
Vancouver— Globe and Mail Update
Posted on Wednesday, April 6, 2011 6:00AM EDT


See story at  LINK
 
Liberals turf Que. candidate over aboriginal comments

Article

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff turfed a Quebec candidate Wednesday after it was revealed the man made disparaging remarks about aboriginal people.

A news release by the NDP earlier Wednesday accused Liberal candidate André Forbes of making disparaging remarks about First Nations and Innu people. The release says he's a former leader of l’Association des Droits des Blancs, the Association for the Rights of Whites, in Sept-Iles, Que.

In a statement Wednesday afternoon, Ignatieff said Forbes has been informed he is no longer a Liberal candidate in the eastern Quebec riding of Manicouagan and that his comments "have no place within the Liberal Party of Canada."

“The Liberal Party of Canada has always stood for equality among all citizens, including First Nations, Métis, Inuit, and non-aboriginal Canadians," he said. "We categorically condemn any comments that seek to divide Canadians on the basis of their culture or ethnicity."

Forbes reportedly referred to aboriginal people as "featherheads" in an interview with L'actualité published in October, 2004.

“Do you know how much a featherhead costs?” Forbes is quoted as saying by the article's author, Jean-Benoît Nadeau.

"That’s the brutal question I was asked by André Forbes, president of the Association for the Rights of Whites of Sept-Îles, in September of 2002, at the height of the controversy surrounding the agreement in principle with the Innu community," Nadeau wrote.

"For you, it’s 25 grand; for a prisoner, 50 grand; for an Indian; 100 grand," he quoted Forbes as saying.

In a 2002 story in Le Soleil, the paper reports Forbes said that governments recognized aboriginal rights over those of white people.

“This is heinous politics which brings social tensions, which leads to what is happening in Israel,” the paper reported.

Tough, not racist: Forbes

In an interview with Radio-Canada, Forbes says the comments were tough, not racist. Asked specifically about some of the remarks, Forbes stood by them.

Asked whether he got the Liberal Party into hot water, Forbes said it was the NDP who got the party in trouble.

A spokesman for Ignatieff said the party "undertakes a thorough vetting of all candidates."

"In the case of Mr. Forbes, it is clear that an error occurred in this vetting process," Marc Roy said.

NDP calls for Ignatieff apology


Earlier Wednesday, Ignatieff said he was shocked at the remarks, but that candidates deserved a chance to defend themselves.

NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair says it's totally unacceptable for Ignatieff to have a candidate with a track record like Forbes's. And he says Ignatieff shouldn't have been so surprised to find out about the remarks.

"I was in Manicouagan riding earlier this week and everyone up there knows what his history is and what the statements are he's made in the past," Mulcair said.

Forbes is now a member of the Cote-Nord Metis council. He joined the federal Liberal riding association in May, 2009, after four years with the provincial Liberals. Forbes was nominated as the federal Liberal candidate in August, 2009.

But Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe says if the reports are true, the remarks are unacceptable.

Forbes's name was removed from the list of candidates on the Liberal website Wednesday morning.
 
Hmm you'd think the Natural Governing Party of Canada would do a better screening job on their candidates. you know at least check their Facebook page for stuff like this ;D
 
People, being people, will say and do things that surprise you.

Look for equally embarrassing events in the other party camps over the next few weeks (although any missteps by CPC candidates will be headline, front and center, while similar missteps from other parties will be below the fold....sigh)
 
Here, during the second week and based on ThreeHundredEight.com’s aggregation of other polls, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, is the first indication of a (bare) Conservative majority government:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
11-04-07.PNG


THURSDAY, APRIL 7, 2011
Conservative majority

Four new polls this morning. Four! In 2008 this would have been nothing special, but in 2011 this is a deluge. However, new polls don't always mean new changes, and this set of polls has had little effect on the projection. But we do have a few seat swaps, and the end result is a Conservative majority government. But only just.

Changes.PNG


The four polls added this morning are from EKOS Research, Nanos Research, Angus-Reid (at least what could be culled from incomplete media reports), and Environics. That last poll was provided to me personally, and a release should be up on their site soon.

The end result is a seat gain for the Conservatives at the expense of the Liberals, and a Liberal gain at the expense of the Bloc Québécois. This keeps the Liberals at 71 seats and the NDP at 32 seats, while the Bloc has dropped to 50 and the Conservatives have risen to the magical 155-seat mark.

In terms of popular support, both the Conservatives and Liberals are unchanged at 38.6% and 27.6%. You'd expect some changes with these four polls, but they peg the Tories at 38%, 37%, 39.6%, and 38% and the Liberals at 25%, 27.8%, 30.4%, and 27%. Average them out and you can see why the national vote projection has not changed.

The New Democrats, however, are up: 0.2 points to 17%. The Bloc Québécois is down 0.2 points to 9.4% (thanks in large part to an exceptionally low result for the party in the EKOS poll), while the Greens are up 0.1 points to 6.4%.

Projection+Change.PNG


Regionally, the Conservatives made some good gains in Alberta and the Prairies, regions where they are already mostly maxed out. They dropped in British Columbia and Quebec, and were relatively stable in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals jumped in British Columbia and re-took second place in Quebec from the Tories, but dropped by a significant amount in Alberta and Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats were relatively stable, except in Quebec where they gained a full point. That's big in the projection. They've never been this high in the province before. The gain came mostly at the expense of the Bloc, which dropped a point to 37.8%, below their 2008 level of support. But the NDP is not yet projected to win more than one seat in the province.

The two seat changes took place in Ontario and Quebec. The Conservatives have edged ahead in Kingston and the Islands in the projection, and now Alicia Gordon is favoured over Liberal candidate Ted Hsu. In Quebec, the Liberals and their somewhat obscure MP Justin Trudeau are in front again in the riding of Papineau.

Though the Conservatives have been picking up a seat or two each day lately, I'm getting the impression they are currently riding the top of a wave. While it could, of course, go either way, I would not be surprised if this is as high as the Tories get in my projection. We shall see.


This is what parliament looks like with a Tory majority:

PROJECTED CANADIAN PARLIAMENT
Parliament%2B11-04-07.PNG

Source: http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

But note the analyst’s last sentence. The Liberals will now spread fear of the “hidden agenda”© which will surely kill medicare and bring back capital punishment if the Tories get a majority. The question is: are Canadians sufficiently comfortable with Stephen Harper, after five years, to ignore the Liberal fear smear?
 
Catholic teachers target Tories

Article

A $3-million election war chest paid for by Ontario’s Catholic teachers has left the provincial Tories feeling outgunned.

Tory MPP Lisa MacLeod said the political action campaign fund set up by the Ontario English Catholic Teachers Association (OECTA) will put PCs at a severe spending disadvantage during the upcoming fall campaign.

“We’re looking at about $3 million which will go towards ads to defeat Tim Hudak, myself, other PC candidates,” MacLeod said. “And there’s no opportunity for my supporters or any teacher who doesn’t agree with this tactic to opt out. And I think that’s unfair.”

OECTA President James Ryan said that a portion of the money will be used on a province-wide billboard campaign — “Who Speaks For Children” — to ensure that the investments made in education during the last eight years continue past October’s fall election.

Members of OECTA are concerned about the positions of PC Leader Tim Hudak who has raised the issue of teacher merit pay and education spending cuts in an on-line public survey, he said.

”The other thing, frankly, is the association of Mr. Hudak with (former Conservative Premier Mike) Harris. Our members remember that era and what education was like during that time,” he said. “I would love Mr. Hudak to prove my fears wrong. I would love for him to come out and say we are not going to take a nickel out of publicly-funded education. We are going to continue the investments.”

Ryan said the billboard advertising won’t support any particular party but will encourage teachers to do their own research and vote.

Each member of OECTA will be required to pay an extra $60 in union fees to fund the campaign, but dues will return to regular levels the following year, Ryan said.

Hudak said he’s getting calls and e-mails from teachers who are upset that they’re being forced to spend money on what they view as a political exercise to get the Ontario Liberals re-elected.

Hudak has three family members who worked in the Catholic school system — his father was a principal, his mother was a special needs teacher and his sister is a secondary school teacher.

“The importance of supporting teachers in the class and classroom education is something that I grew up with talking around the kitchen table almost each and every day,” he said. “You’ll see that reflected in the PC platform and I encourage individual teachers to see where we want to go with education. I think they’ll be impressed.”

Teachers have told him that they want to see the classroom teacher supported but waste reduced in the education bureaucracy, he said.

In a March letter to OECTA members, Ryan says that “it is safe to predict teacher negotiators will face hostility at the bargaining table when collective agreements expire” if Hudak wins the election.

Delegations at an OECTA annual general meeting left “acutely aware of how the election of a Conservative government under Tim Hudak would threaten the common good, particularly education,” he says.

This is insane, unions should not have power at that level especially when Canadian kid's education is involved. My mother works at a Catholic school as an EA and is a member of OECTA, and I can tell you now that they are the slimiest people on the face of the planet. She is treated like dirt, and is usually doing the teaching (and still payed for only half a day) while the real teacher hangs out in the staff room doing jack-all.

Vote Conservative so we can kick these lizards out of power.
 
Thucydides said:
People, being people, will say and do things that surprise you.

Look for equally embarrassing events in the other party camps over the next few weeks (although any missteps by CPC candidates will be headline, front and center, while similar missteps from other parties will be below the fold....sigh)

True the PQ Lib candidates outing is buried way back in CTV, CBC reporting.
 
Compare the coverage of a Liberal candidate who was convicted of a Criminal Code of Canada offense with the appearance of a Conservative supporter at a rally:

Todays National Post, page 6:  http://digital.nationalpost.com/epaper/viewer.aspx
(Can not find this in other media)

A Liberal candidate for a Vancouver-area riding was convicted of driving drunk in 2005, according to court records reviewed by Postmedia News. Mandeep Bhuller, who is running for the Liberals in Pitt MeadowsMaple Ridge-Mission, was pulled over by police in Maple Ridge, B.C., on Nov. 29, 2003 and charged with impaired driving. Mr. Bhuller fought the charge in court but he was found guilty on March 29, 2005 in Port Coquitlam, B.C., provincial court and handed a $800 fine and a one-year driving prohibition. “I made a serious mistake,” the candidate said in an interview Wednesday. “I’m embarrassed by it.” Liberal party spokesman Brad Zubyk said Mr. Bhuller disclosed his conviction during the party’s vetting process. “There was openness and contrition,” Mr. Zubyk said. Mr. Bhuller has spina bifida and his condition has worsened. He is now in a wheelchair and no longer drives.

Todays on line Globe & Mail (don't know what page, but it got a headline):
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tory-supporter-accused-of-fraud-gets-coveted-seat-at-harper-rally/article1974672/

Headline: Tory supporter accused of fraud gets coveted seat at Harper rally

A Toronto businessman and self-described campaign volunteer who circulates in Conservative circles is facing a criminal charge for allegedly fraudulent credit- and debit-card withdrawals – a background that did not prevent him from sitting right behind the Harper family at a rally last week.

My Comment: This proves, unequivocally, that along with the Bruce Carson"affair", the Harper government surrounds itself with criminals.
 
Rifleman62 said:
Todays National Post, page 6:  http://digital.nationalpost.com/epaper/viewer.aspx
(Can not find this in other media)
CBC did a bit on this:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/06/cv-election-liberals-bhuller-drunk-driving.html
as did Vancouver radio
http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1397952
... but it was mostly the NatPost/Postmedia outlets that ran it significantly.

Good catch on the differences.
 
From a Blog.

Lets see if the main stream media pick this up, and where it is placed. Of interest also because of the F-35 and law & order issues. The guy was a Judge.

http://blog.decisioncanada.ca/conservatives/liberal-candidate-suggest-some-sexual-assault-offenders-should-not-go-to-jail/

Liberal candidate suggests some sexual assault offenders should not go to jail

April 7, 2011. 10:16 am • Section: Conservatives, Liberals

OTTAWA — John Reilly, the Liberal candidate for Wild Rose, is coming under attack for suggesting last month that some sexual offenders should not go to jail.

The Conservative Party is handing out transcripts and audio clips from an interview Reilly, a retired provincial court judge with 35 years experience on the bench, did with The Rutherford Show on March 31, 2011.

The Rutherford Show with guest John Reilly

Reilly went on to say that in a specific case where a young 19, 20, year-old man who penetrated a woman with his fingers should not go to jail for three years.

You can listen to the whole interview on the Rutherford’s website, click March 31, 2011. Select the 10:00 AM hour. Rutherford spoke with Reilly at 9:25 and took calls from listeners at 27:00.

Reilly, who has been described as a maverick, told Rutherford he was inspired to run because he believes “the vast majority of the people who have appeared in front of me over my thirty-plus years on the bench are disadvantaged poor people, uneducated a lot of them have learning difficulties, a lot of them with drug addictions.

I see the majority of people as needing help, and what motivated me to just resign my position and run in this election is that I was disgusted by the Conservative government policies that have all these mandatory minimums. And I see those policies as policies that will incarcerate thousands of people that don’t need to be incarcerated, and the cost is billions of dollars.”

Reilly could not be immediately reached for comment.

This is the full transcript:

….his name is John Reilly and you would think a guy who has that kind of attitude towards the criminal justice system, personal responsibility, liability, he might be you know, sort of a tough guy.  He says ‘I’m not that guy anymore.’ He’s going to run for the federal Liberals in the riding of Wild Rose because he does not like some of the things coming from the criminal justice reform agenda of the Conservative Party.  Can I still call you Judge Reilly, John?
JR:  You can call me anything you want to…
Host:  Just don’t call me late for dinner, I know.
JR:  I’m not a judge anymore.
Host:  Alright.
JR:  So you can just call me John.
Host:  Call you John.  Alright, listen John, what I said in the introduction was correct.  People who have seen you in court, we’ve seen some of your decisions, we’ve seen you on the bench, at least we think we’ve seen you on the bench, for over 30 years in the criminal justice system doing a certain thing.  Have you changed your attitude?
JR:  Well, no, I think I wasn’t sure about that guy you were talking about.  I’ve always thought that I had the reputation as the soft touch.  I have criticized the concepts of punishment and deterrents for their own sake.  My position in relation to criminal law is that I think you have to make a decision between whether you just want to punish crime which I think is an attitude that’s somewhat prevalent, whether you just want to punish it or whether you actually want to reduce it, and while there are some people who are bad and just need to be locked away, I think the vast majority of the people who have appeared in front of me over my thirty-plus years on the bench are disadvantaged poor people, uneducated, a lot of them have learning difficulties, a lot of them with drug addictions. I see the majority of people as needing help. And what motivated me to just resign my position and run in this election is that I was disgusted by the Conservative government policies that have all these mandatory minimums.  And I see those policies as policies that will incarcerate thousands of people that don’t need to be incarcerated, and the cost is billions of dollars.  And of course, the other thing that motivated me is that the party was found to be in contempt of Parliament because they had, the had these policies and also their F-35 policies that were going to cost the taxpayers of Canada billions of dollars and they were trying to pass that legislation without telling us how much it was going to cost.  That was the contempt of Parliament, and that was sort of the icing on the cake for me running in this election. I

Host:  Wait a second, John, you’re talking about the cost of criminal justice reforms, is that mostly what you’re, not the jets?

JR:  I mention the jets because that was part of the contempt of Parliament motion that has caused this election.  But it was also the cost of the criminal justice initiatives — which I understand might be as high as six billion dollars — their prison expansion policies. And you know, they’ve been doing this in the United States and they finally decided that they were wrong.  They had all these mandatory sentences in California, and they were locking up so many people that it was bankrupting the state of California, so one day last year, Arnie Swartzeneger just releases forty thousand prisoners and goes on national television to tell the people ‘Don’t worry about this because these people aren’t dangerous.’  Well, my question is:  if they’re not dangerous, why are we locking them up in the first place?

Host:  But you know that the California situation was not just a one-off, there all kinds of other problems in the California economy, not just the cost of incarceration.  But it was one of the things the governments do, yes.  But, some new stats, I mean our analysis of incarceration statistics, John, are here.  As my last, I talked about this with Dr. Ian Lee, who is a professor at Carleton, myths and urban legends surrounding crime in Canada, pretty extensive report.  He said ‘You know, it’s really tough to get into federal prison in Canada.  It’s not just stealing a piece of pizza.’ It’s hard to get into prison, you got to kill people, rape people, be in gangs, you know.  It’s hard to get into federal prison, John. We don’t just throw pizza thieves in there.

JR:  You know, I have had a number of cases that I’ve written judgments on where the crown prosecutor is saying the starting point for this offence is three years in the federal penitentiary.  And one lad that I think of who was a cocaine addict he’d buy half a dozen hits and sell three of them to pay for the ones he was using, he managed to do this a few times with undercover officers, and he is now in front of me and it was kind of funny, that I looked at this young man and he was sweating and looked pale, looked like he was going to faint, and I asked him is something wrong, and the crown prosecutor said ‘This man just came up and said he’ll plead guilty to charges of trafficking cocaine and wondered what we were looking for by way of sentencing?’ and I told him three years.  And so I said, well you know, what you should do is talk to a lawyer and if you want to proceed with this guilty plea we should get a pre-sentence report, we should find out some stuff about you and decide what we’re going to do.  And I ended up giving this young man a sentence of two years less a day that I allowed him to serve in the community, a conditional sentence order.  And this is about four years ago.  The crown wanted him to go to a federal penitentiary.  I left him on the street.  Part of the conditional sentence order was treatment and also community service work. He did his community service work, he successfully completed his conditional sentence order and this is now some four years later, and I was down at the Victory store dropping some stuff off that we were donating a month or two ago, and this guy says ‘Hi Judge Reilly!’ and it’s the guy.  And he’s still doing, he still goes down and does volunteer work at the Victory store.  And you know, I can’t tell you thousands of those stories, but they wanted him in the federal penitentiary, and I wouldn’t do it, but I’m afraid that there are a lot of people in his position that are going there, and they’re soft.  If that boy, boy, young man, would not have survived a federal penitentiary.
Host:  Judge Reilly, John, no, it’s good to hear those, you analyze a situation, you looked at the kid, you realized this guy is not a dangerous criminal, et cetera, great.  That’s your role, isn’t it?
JR:  The role that I think the Conservatives are trying to take away from judges.
Host:  But you’ve got also, you can’t deny that 70% of inmates in federal prisons are there for violent crimes.  First and second degree murder, sex assault, arson, kidnapping.  Those, 70% of them judge, so it’s not again they’re just a bunch of innocent people sitting in prison.  There’s some bad dudes in there.
JR:  There are.  But I believe that the percentage of ‘bad dudes’ that are in there is a lot lower than the, I mean, this is one of my problems with the criminal justice system the way it is, is that I say we put too much emphasis on the offence and not enough emphasis on the offender.  If you’re looking at what the Conservative government wants to do is say if this is the offence, you go to jail.  And that’s going to put people in jail that don’t need to be there.
Host:  But what kind of offences though?
JR:  Sexual assault.
Host:  You shouldn’t go to jail for a sex assault?
JR:  Well, you know, there are sexual assaults and there are sexual assaults.

Host:  Sure?
JR:  And I had another young man, not a young offender, but a 19, 20 year old.  He’s at a party, there’s a lot of sexual innuendo, one of these women is being very aggressive with her boyfriend and they’re drinking a lot, the boyfriend passes out, she goes, gets into bed naked, he goes up, he’s thinking he’s going to be able to, that she’ll probably agree to have sex with him, he fondles her privates, and she wakes up and tells him to go away, and he goes away.  They report it, he’s charged with sexual offence, he has digitally penetrated her, the crown prosecutor says this is a digital penetration of a woman’s vagina, he should go to jail for three years, that’s the starting point for this sexual offence.  And I’m looking at this 20 year old, socially inept young man, and his offence is a sexual assault and it’s one that they consider a major sexual assault because it involves digital penetration.  I don’t think in those circumstances that that what happened there should put that young man in a penitentiary for three years.
Host:  Unless it’s your daughter, and then maybe you’ve got a whole another perspective!  You haven’t mentioned the word ‘victim’ once yet!
JR:  You know, I am concerned about victims, but what I’m concerned about is our society as a whole.  Often, these minimum sentences that I’m stuck with, if I have an assault occasioning bodily harm, that’ll qualify now as a crime of violence.  Again, a couple of guys have too much to drink in a bar and get into a fight, maybe somebody gets hit with a glass.  I had a woman in front of me who was charged with assault occasioning bodily harm.  She was drunk, guy offended her, she went to throw the beer in her glass in his face and she hit his face with the glass and it broke and there was huge damage done to his face.  Now, they’re saying she’s got to go to jail, this is an aggravated assault because it has caused serious bodily injury.
Host:  You say booze.
JR:  No, I just say is this a person that needs to go to a federal penitentiary, and if I can keep her out of the federal penitentiary, that guy has just suffered a big financial loss, because this is going to cost him a lot.  If we send the offender to jail automatically, this is the offence he’s committed, he’s not able to earn the money that’s going to allow him to make restitution for the damage he’s done.  And so some of these things you know….
Host:  John, hang on, don’t go away, I want to continue.  And I have people that want to ask you questions, I do need to take a break here John.  John Reilly back after this!

 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/04/07/cv-election-liberal-apologizes.html

Here is the CBC article- more of a one page space for his apology.
 
Further, same Blog source:

http://blog.decisioncanada.ca/

Michael Ignatieff says John Reilly can remain a candidate

April 7, 2011

LAVAL, Que. — Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff told reporters in Montreal Thursday a candidate who suggested not all sexual offenders deserve to go to prison, can remain a representative of the party.

Ignatieff said he was “disgusted” by the comments but John Reilly, a retired Alberta judge, had a good reputation for public service and he had apologized unreservedly.

    “The comments are totally unacceptable. I, personally, was disgusted. But he is a judge
, he has a record of public service that goes back some 30 years — it’s a whole life that has to be judged. He had made comments that are totally unacceptable for all Canadian, he apologized unreservedly on that statement. I had to look at his life, I had to gage the fact that this was a judge with a good reputation, good public service. And for that reason, because he has apologized unreservedly, well he can remain a candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada,” Ignatieff said.

My comment: ...it’s a whole life that has to be judged. OK, judge Stephen Harper's whole life!
 
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