Tories destined for a majority: Pollster
By ANTONELLA ARTUSO QMI Agency
Article Link
Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained a massive 21-point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, according to a new COMPAS Research poll obtained exclusively by QMI Agency.
In Ontario, the Liberals trail their Conservative opponents in every area of the province except Toronto — although Harper leads in the city's suburbs.
The poll, the largest telephone survey of the campaign, also found that Ignatieff is trailing both the Conservatives and the NDP in Quebec, as NDP Leader Jack Layton shows some surprising strength in the province.
Pollster Conrad Winn said Harper is particularly strong in Ontario and all points west.
"The way things are going, he's destined for a majority," Winn said. "The only chance they have is to prevent him from forming a majority, and for that they would need far higher public confidence in the leaders of the opposition than exists."
The COMPAS poll results differ from other recent surveys that found the Conservatives were about nine points ahead of the Liberals, although most appear to place Harper in at least minority government territory.
The Liberals are a distant second place in Alberta and Ontario, but only three points behind in the Atlantic provinces.
Layton's New Democrats are stronger than the Liberals in B.C., Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
And in what Winn calls one of the most interesting revelations, the New Democrats are doing relatively well in Quebec.
The Conservatives are fighting it out for first place in Quebec City and Eastern Quebec; the NDP is a contender in Montreal and the rest of Quebec, the poll says.
"New Democrats have been praying for openings in Quebec for half a century," Winn said. "It's like a man lost in the desert praying for rain. Occasionally, the prayer works."
Bloc support in Quebec tops that of the second place Conservatives by 12 percentage points.
In Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 17 points, although they trail in Toronto. The NDP has strength in the northern part of the province.
The Conservatives dominate in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with a 35-40 point lead, the poll found.
The Atlantic provinces give Harper only a small edge because people are concerned about his plans to cut spending, Winn said.
Alberta, always fertile vote-hunting ground for the Conservatives, shows Harper with a 50-point lead.
B.C. voters polled favour the Conservatives by 20 points.
"Falling short of a Kim Campbell-style shellacking, the Liberals nonetheless face the prospect of a historic shutout in French Quebec and being limited to islands of support in Atlantic Canada, English-speaking Montreal, the City of Toronto, parts of southern and eastern Ontario, and parts of Vancouver," a poll analysis says.
The COMPAS poll surveyed 2,300 voters by telephone April 6-11, and is considered accurate within 2.1 percentage points.
end
Nuff said.
