Election 2011

[Kat Stevens]

Seriously?  The liberals were the most regionally devisive government ever, screw the West, marginalize the East, pander to the centre was their mantra.  They maintained control by ensuring the west never got a voice.

 

[Rifleman62]

The media are in full protection mode. No ethics, no professionalism.

Too many examples. In line with the previous hockey posts:

A CBC reporter (a nobody) asks a ridiculous question at a Harper rally, is booed by some of the Conservatives attending, it’s national news.

Michael Ignatieff  (a leader running for PM) is booed by 4,000 fans  at a Mississauga hockey game, it’s not worth a mention.

 

[Gimpy]

The media are in full protection mode. No ethics, no professionalism.

Too many examples. In line with the previous hockey posts:

A CBC reporter (a nobody) asks a ridiculous question at a Harper rally, is booed by some of the Conservatives attending, it’s national news.

Michael Ignatieff  (a leader running for PM) is booed by 4,000 fans  at a Mississauga hockey game, it’s not worth a mention.

Pardon? The Michael Ignatieff story was mentioned on this very page. was posted on the CBC's website and I've seen it on the local and national news.

 

[ModlrMike]

Pardon? The Michael Ignatieff story was mentioned on this very page. was posted on the CBC's website and I've seen it on the local and national news.

CBC was virtually the last news agency to post it. It first appeared on Sun News, then CTV, here etc, etc, etc.

 

[Gimpy]

CBC was virtually the last news agency to post it. It first appeared on Sun News, then CTV, here etc, etc, etc.

Well I suppose it's worth something that they posted it at all.

 

[wannabe SF member]

I'm starting to think that Sun news might actually force CBC to work for it's money and pay more than lip service to their so-called impartiality obligations.

 

[Edward Campbell]

A Conservative majority is within reach if, a Big IF, the Conservatives can hold on to all their current 150 leads and pick up six of the following 11 seats:

1. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (BC) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 3.8% (according to ThreeHundredEight.com )

2. North Vancouver (BC) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 1.9%                                  (same source)

3. Elmwood-Transcona (MB) from the NDP, who currently lead by 3.7%                                        “    “

4. BramptonWest (ON) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 0.7%                                          “      “

5. Eglington-Lawrence (ON) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 3.0%                                  “    “

6. Guelph (ON) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 3.5%                                                      “    “

7. Kingston and the Islands (ON) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 1.4%                          “    “

8. London North Centre (ON) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 4.7%                                “    “

9. Mississauga South (ON) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 2.8%                                    “      “

10. Sault Ste. Marie (ON) from the NDP, who currently lead by 1.7%                                            “      “

11. Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe (NB) from the Liberals, who currently lead by 4.1%                      “    “


As you can see seven of those 11 close (less than 5% spread) ridings are in ON which may explain these headlines from today's Globe and Mail:

Ignatieff to make last stand in Ontario
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/adam-radwanski/ignatieff-to-make-last-stand-in-ontario/article1997225/  and

Strength in Ontario puts ‘squeaker of a majority’ within Harper’s reach
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/strength-in-ontario-puts-squeaker-of-a-majority-within-harpers-reach/article1997430/

 

[Edward Campbell]

Further to this: Strength in Ontario puts ‘squeaker of a majority’ within Harper’s reach
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/strength-in-ontario-puts-squeaker-of-a-majority-within-harpers-reach/article1997430/

The Globe and Mail story, which based on a Nanos poll, goes on to say:

For the NDP the story is much different in Ontario. “Improved NDP fortunes across Canada have not materialized in gains within battleground Ontario over the holiday weekend,” Mr. Nanos said. “Support for the NDP is comparable to the 2008 election, factoring in the margin of error”

The NDP is at 16.9 per cent support in Ontario compared to 47.8 per cent support for the Conservatives and 29.3 per cent for the Liberals. That’s Mr. Ignatieff’s lowest level of support in the province since the election began and Mr. Nanos said Mr. Harper has been the main beneficiary of the Grit slide. (The margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

Mr. Nanos said Ontarians are “likely to be concerned about the economy” and Mr. Harper’s “scaremongering about the New Democrats spending money in a province that has been battered by the recession” is weighing on the NDP in the province.

“The thing is when we look across the country Ontario is the province that is the best candidate for the Conservatives to pick up their seats,” Mr. Nanos said. There are 106 seats on the table; the Tories had 51 at dissolution compared to 37 for the Liberals, 17 for the NDP and one Independent.

Mr. Nanos noted there are only 32 seats in the four Atlantic provinces, there is “unlikely to be any significant pick-up for the Conservatives in Quebec,” the Tories are strong in the Prairies and British Columbia may end up being “a wash.”

“And that brings it all down to the Ontario,” he said. “If there is a majority government for the Conservatives it will be delivered in the province of Ontario.”

The three-day rolling poll of 1,023 Canadians was conducted on April 21, April 23 and April 24. Nanos Research did not poll on Good Friday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage point, 19 times out of 20.

It should be an interesting, indeed entertaining, week for political junkies.

 

[observor 69]

I'm starting to think that Sun news might actually force CBC to work for it's money and pay more than lip service to their so-called impartiality obligations.

The Sun came up, and it was dead boring

John Doyle
From Monday's Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Apr. 25, 2011 12:00AM EDT
Last updated Monday, Apr. 25, 2011 8:03AM EDT


After all of that – all the fuss, the hype and hysteria – what has Sun News Network amounted to? Cheap, cheesy, terrible television. I encourage you to watch it. You can learn a great deal about the utter banality of well-meant but bonehead TV.

Now, me, I was anxious to see it and savour it. The more news outlets, the better; the more channels we have to choose from, the better off we are. Stands to reason. And Sun News promised a great deal.

So the other day, just back from Ireland and admittedly a tad jet-lagged, I started watching. First thing I saw was the ego that is Ezra Levant waving around a giant cigar and making a speech about Cuba. Odd, I thought. Here we are at the crucial point in a federal election campaign and Levant is anxious to let us know his views on events in Cuba.

Boy oh boy, did he go on. Cuba this and Castro that, interminably. Then it dawned on me that Levant had written a long, densely written analysis of matters Cuban and was talking it at us. It transcended terrible television to achieve the level of abomination. I was reminded that there was a guy with a sock puppet named Ed, who went from community cable TV to the CITY-TV channel a few years ago. The guy with the sock had a better grasp of the basics of TV than Ezra Levant and his producers.

Being away, I had taped the opening hours of Sun News, so I looked at it. There, again, was Levant making  a speech. “We’re talking about truth and freedom,” he declared. “If you love freedom like I do, it’s a pretty happy day.” Well, sunshine, not if it’s like watching paint dry, it isn’t.

Levant is obviously meant to be the channel’s version of the outgoing Fox News personality Glenn Beck, but without Beck’s charisma. Mind you, just as Beck devoted a lot of time to promoting his radio show and books, Levant, on consecutive days, plugged his book about the oil industry. Beck wrote a hilariously entertaining paranoid thriller about do-gooders taking over the world. Levant wrote a windy book about the oil industry. Sorry – not the same thing.

Over the week the impressions mounted. Impressions of a shockingly amateurish channel with a giant media corporation, Quebecor, behind it. I noted that Sun News made a self-regarding fuss about some journalists mocking the dress style of the lady hosts and anchors. The word “skank” was bandied but then retracted, apparently. Well, now. There’s nothing lewd or lascivious about the frocks, skirts and tops being worn. It’s just that several of the women on air look like they dressed in the dark. Sun News has achieved a remarkable feat. It has made the comely and talented Krista Erickson, a noted spiffy dresser, look like a shoo-in for an appearance on What Not to Wear.

This Theo Caldwell character is another Sun News personality who goes on and on and on. Like he’d never heard of the word “brevity” or been advised that making speeches on air amounts to really bad television. Further, he cannot conduct an interview. He makes a speech he knows the interviewee will agree with and then listens, delightedly, when they concur.

Article continued at LINK

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Sun came up, and it was dead boring

John Doyle
From Monday's Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Apr. 25, 2011 12:00AM EDT
Last updated Monday, Apr. 25, 2011 8:03AM EDT


After all of that – all the fuss, the hype and hysteria – what has Sun News Network amounted to? Cheap, cheesy, terrible television. I encourage you to watch it. You can learn a great deal about the utter banality of well-meant but bonehead TV.

Now, me, I was anxious to see it and savour it. The more news outlets, the better; the more channels we have to choose from, the better off we are. Stands to reason. And Sun News promised a great deal.

So the other day ...

Well, cue the plagues of frogs and locusts, the world is ending, 'cause I agree with Doyle. I find Sun News boring, too.

I share his views about the apparent aimlessness of the coverage during a tight election. I find some of the newsreaders second rate - stumbling over words and phrases and so on, and some of the commentators predictably banal.

I'm sure they'll get better - I recall being bored and mildly embarrassed by CBC Newsworld (now CBC News Network, I think) and CTV Newsnet (now CTV News Channel) when they started; I still am, come to that.

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

Not being from Toronto, I do know who Ezra Levant is, don't know John Boyle.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com are new projections based on aggregations of polling data:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

CANADIAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL PROJECTIONS

April 25, 2011 Projection - Conservative Minority Government

MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
Conservatives return to 151

With the long Easter weekend intervening in the election campaign, few polls have been released in the past few days. Nanos reported yesterdayon a three-day roll up that excluded Friday, and they did the same today. But they won't be reporting tomorrow, as their pollsters have the day off today. Accordingly, the projection hasn't moved around much. But every polling firm should report at least once this week, so it will be a roller coaster ride.

The Conservatives are still at 38.6%, where they have been for most of the campaign. They are up one seat to 151. The Liberals are up 0.1 point to 27.5% but are down one seat to 75. The New Democrats are up 0.1 point to 19.1%, but are unchanged at 36 seats.

The Bloc Québécois is down to 8.1% and unchanged at 45 seats while the Greens are down to 5.5%.

The Conservatives gained in two key regions: half-a-point in Ontario and almost a full point in Atlantic Canada. They are now actually in the lead (by the slimmest of margins) on the East Coast.

For the Liberals, they lost in Ontario and Atlantic Canada but did make decent gains in British Columbia and Quebec. Speaking of which, Michael Ignatieff was on Tout le monde en parle last night and did well enough. He was most helped out by Dominique Michel, a well-known celebrity in Quebec (so well-known, in fact, that she and not Ignatieff was the first guest), who endorsed the Liberal leader as he was sitting right next to her. Had she said instead that she was supporting the Bloc or the NDP, it would have been devastating.

The New Democrats were stable but made another big gain in Quebec. They're now at 20.7% there and a few seats are on the tipping point, Jeanne-Le Ber in particular.

The pain continues for the Bloc, down 0.3 points to only 34.1%. They're being dragged down with every passing day and every new poll.

The one seat that changed hands was in Newfoundland & Labrador. Conservative candidate John Ottenheimer is now the projected winner in Random - Burin - St. George's over Liberal incumbent Judy Foote. Ottenheimer is a former provincial cabinet minister who retired from provincial politics in 2007.

A few other Atlantic Canadian seats are on the bubble. The gap is less than five points in the projection in Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe (Liberals lead, Conservatives trail), Saint John (CPC lead, LPC trail), West Nova (CPC lead, LPC trail), and Egmont (CPC lead, LPC trail). But if the Conservatives continue to gain while the Liberals lose, seats like Madawaska - Restigouche, Malpeque, and St. John's South - Mount Pearl could turn blue - enough to push the Tories to 154 seats in all. For the New Democrats, they might have a shot in St. John's South - Mount Pearl, South Shore - St. Margaret's, and Dartmouth - Cole Harbour. One of those seats is held by the Tories, and the first is a three-way race. So in some individual ridings out east the NDP can play a role in defeating Conservatives, along with Liberals.

Check back later today for a look at the Nanos poll and two riding polls released over the weekend in Quebec.

If, another Big IF, this is the start of a trend then it couldn't happen at a better time for Harper's Conservatives.

 

[ModlrMike]

Best summation of the election, taken from the CTV news pages:

Monday Night Game:Late in the third period of a 'nothing - nothing' game, and behind on shots on goal, Harper intercepts a left wing pass deep in his own end and streaks up the ice. Inexplicably, the opposing defencemen are both on the left side of the rink and seem more interested in jockeying for position and playing to the fans than watching the puck. As Harper crosses centre the media goes wild and howls in amazement as he bears down on the net.. With a feint to the left and a quick deke to the right Harper shifts to his backhand and HE SHOOTS! HE ...............

 

[a_majoor]

A prediction about the NDP "Surge"

http://freedomnation.blogspot.com/2011/04/new-dawn-for-ndp.html

A new dawn for the NDP?

This election has turned fascinating really quickly. The upsurge of the NDP especially in Quebec could be a new dawn for this old but untested federal party. We could be witnessing a reordering of Canada’s political parties as Bloc voters consider abandoning the socialistic nationalism of the BQ for the nationalistic socialism of the NDP.

It strikes me that this situation is somewhat familiar. In the recent British general election the Liberal-Democrats experienced a similar surge forward. At times it looked like they would even overtake the Labour Party as the official opposition. Although no one seriously discussed the possibility of the Liberal-Democrats leading a coalition there was plenty of pre-election talk about how crucial they would be in forming the next government.

Then Election Day came and the results were very disappointing for the Liberal-Democrats. It was the best showing for the party in decades and a triumph when you consider how close they had come to obliteration in the 80s. Still it was nowhere near the heights that the polls were giving them just days before the election.

As always it is pretty difficult/impossible to know what really happened, but the best that anyone can figure is that either people were not being completely honest to pollsters or Liberal Democrats just decided not to vote. Personally I find the former much more realistic than the latter. There was so much excitement around the Liberal Democrats I would suspect that supporters would be more motivated to actually vote.

So I think that the people surveyed were being dishonest. Not really dishonest to the person taking the survey but dishonest to themselves. Tired of the “same old political parties” some voters flirted with something new, but when it came time to vote old habits kicked in and they voted for something that was safe and familiar. A fed up Labour voter may have said that he/she will vote Liberal Democrat in disgust of Gordon Brown, but most of them actually voted Labour.

This is a lesson that the NDP should pay attention to because the attitudes of segments of the Canadian electorate mirror what was happening in the UK. I predict that although the NDP will get a breakthrough in Quebec the final results will be extremely disappointing for them.

We are witnessing a change in the federal party system but it is not a fundamental shift. There will be no new dawn for the NDP.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I'm just speculating here and will admit, since voting Friday I really haven't paid much attention.

I have no views on this myself, but does anyone think the gains made by the NDP in Quebec, may be at a cost to their supporters elsewhere.

Meaning, will their non Quebec supporters shift because they see the NDP pandering to Quebec and not addressing their long standing support. Is it possible they will abandon the NDP because they are as tired of the constant whining from Quebec as the rest of the country and now see their boss courting them?

I don't know if this is even a serious rub. Just something that crossed my mind.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I'm just speculating here and will admit, since voting Friday I really haven't paid much attention.

I have no views on this myself, but does anyone think the gains made by the NDP in Quebec, may be at a cost to their supporters elsewhere.

Meaning, will their non Quebec supporters shift because they see the NDP pandering to Quebec and not addressing their long standing support. Is it possible they will abandon the NDP because they are as tired of the constant whining from Quebec as the rest of the country and now see their boss courting them?

I don't know if this is even a serious rub. Just something that crossed my mind.

It's a good point - Layton is appealing, directly, to the QC nationalist sector and that may help explain why his popularity is growing in QC but is stagnant in ON.

 

[dapaterson]

It's a good point - Layton is appealing, directly, to the QC nationalist sector and that may help explain why his popularity is growing in QC but is stagnant in ON.

Mind you, Ontario still remembers Rae days and other fun frolics from having an NDP government provincially; it will be another decade before that fades and the NDP can regain its footing, federally and provincially, in Ontario.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Well whatever he is doing in Quebec, bravo!  I am pleased as punch to see the BQ getting the shit kicked out of them.  I hope Jack breaks their backs so they can wither on the vine.

 

[Rifleman62]

DAP:

Mind you, Ontario still remembers Rae days and other fun frolics from having an NDP government provincially

David, does Ontario know what a Liberal provincial government is giving them right now?

 

[Old Sweat]

DAP:
David, does Ontario know what a Liberal provincial government is giving them right now?

The current Ontario provincial government, as flakey and FUBARish as it is, is a vast improvement of Bob Rae's administration which combined third world fiscal probity and administrative competence with second world political and economic philosophy and first world smugness.