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Election 2011

Well...what was looking to be a boring, achieve nothing election has turned pretty darned interesting all of a sudden!  I have held some pretty serious doubts about the NDP translating their growing popularity into actual seats but the continuing trends are starting to make me wonder.  After all I never would have predicted the extent of the total collapse of the PC's under Kim Campbell either. 

I've always considered myself to be on the (far) right wing of the Liberal party and have therefore never personally thought of the NDP as a potential alternative vote, but the distaste which many traditional Liberal supporters have for Steven Harper personally may actually lead many Liberals to jump to the left if they see the LPC collapsing.  They may however just decide to stay home and see how things unfold.

In some of the PM's most recent comments he's suggested that Jack Layton and the NDP aren't READY to lead the country.  I'm not sure that is a very effective argument for the CPC to make.  After all, didn't the Liberals say exactly the same thing about Steven Harper and the Conservatives before they were elected?

I also see Steven Harper's tightly controlled leadership style working against him in these dying days of the campaign.  While he may be seen as being the most competent party leader he is trailing Jack Layton in terms of trust and vision.  I'd argue that the latter two characteristics have much greater potential to swing undecided votes than the first which will work to Layton's advantage. 

So unfortunately Harper is in somewhat of a losing game vs. Layton on a personal level so that would suggest his best tactic would be then to fall back on the strength of the Conservative "team" and to fight the NDP on a policy level.  Oops...the tightly centralized control of Harper's PMO hasn't really allowed for the development of a strongly recognized and trusted Conservative team.  This is afterall the "Harper Government".  On a policy level it's also hard for a government to stand very firmly on it's record when they've had the misfortune of governing through a difficult recession (no fault of their own...just bad luck) and haven't helped themselves in the credibility department by having the largest deficit in history (doing basically the same things they say the NDP would do), had questionable spending practices in regard to the G8/G20, and not done a great job on defending some of their largest spending plans (F-35's anyone?). 

It will be VERY interesting to see what actually happens on election night!
 
I don't see why the Liberals are so scared of the NDP......

Heck, all they have to do is trot out Bob Rae and have him tell everybody why it sucked to have an NDP government......I'm sure Bob won't mind helping out, gee, even Jean Cretean (purposely mispelled) helped out Iggy.... ::)
 
I wonder if the upswing in undecided voters represents Liberals who are now trying to decide which way to turn. It is those "former" Liberals that both Harper and Layton need to attract.
 
GR66 said:
In some of the PM's most recent comments he's suggested that Jack Layton and the NDP aren't READY to lead the country.  I'm not sure that is a very effective argument for the CPC to make.  After all, didn't the Liberals say exactly the same thing about Steven Harper and the Conservatives before they were elected?

Nope, I'm sure they said he'd abolish abortion, make everyone practice Christianity and he'd also put troops on the streets with guns.  ::)
 
Combative Ignatieff says Tories can 'go to hell'
Article Link
Published On Wed Apr 27 2011

Les Whittington and Richard J. Brennan Staff Reporters

A combative Michael Ignatieff has stepped up criticisms of his political rivals, saying Jack Layton is “getting a free ride” and telling Conservatives “they can go to hell.”

Ignatieff, whose party has fallen into third place in the polls, told the Toronto Star editorial board Wednesday that a lot of the Liberals’ woes can be traced to the relentless Conservative attack ads.

“I am not going to complain about it because it seems to give the other guys too much damn credit. I don’t give these guys damn credit for anything,” the Liberal leader said, slamming his fist on the table. “I am not going to let other people frame me up … they can go to hell is what I have thought basically for two and a half years.

“I have spent my whole life dealing with bullies. Some of them had guns,” he said in a reference to his days as a journalist working in foreign countries. “You think this stuff shuts me down? You got to be kidding.”

He spoke to the Star hours before a rally intended to shore up the Liberals’ Toronto base. Ignatieff joined dozens of GTA Liberal candidates and former prime minister Jean Chrétien for a noisy, enthusiastic rally in North York.

Despite the polls, which show the Liberals trailing the NDP and the front-running Conservatives, Ignatieff says the game isn’t over and he’s still got a chance to win.

It’s “wake-up time” with respect to the NDP surge, he said, adding that Canadians should take a close look at Layton’s election promises.

“They just don’t get fiscal discipline,” he said.
More on link
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is some media spin on some Conservative spin:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/dont-believe-the-polling-hype-harpers-campaign-chief-tells-her-troops/article2001915/
Don’t believe the polling hype, Harper’s campaign chief tells her troops

JANE TABER
Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Thursday, April 28, 2011

Stephen Harper’s campaign manager is warning Tory troops not to believe the polls or what they read in the media since the election is far from over.

“Make no mistake – nothing is decided yet,” Jenni Byrne writes in the statement dated Wednesday. “There are many close races where even a handful of votes will make the difference.”

She notes, too, that Canada’s “future is at stake in this election.”

Or is it the Conservative Party’s future that’s at stake? in this election? Is Ms. Byrne channeling Tory nervousness about the way in which this campaign is unfolding? Or is she merely trying to motivate campaign workers to get out the vote on May 2?

The latest polling numbers show the possibility of a Tory majority government slipping away. Not surprising then, her warning about reading too much into the media polls.

“We are concerned that due to media coverage or ‘so-called polls,’ some might feel that the election is already over. That is not the case,” she writes.

Thursday’s Nanos Research poll has Jack Layton firmly in second place and beginning to close the gap on Mr. Harper. The NDP is now only six points behind the Tories, though Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals are almost 15 points behind the front-running Conservatives.

In her note, Ms. Byrne raises the spectre – as Mr. Harper and his Tories have throughout the campaign – of a scary big-spending, coalition government. This time, however, there is much more emphasis on the NDP.

“Our country’s future is at risk from an unstable, reckless coalition made up of Ignatieff Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Québecois,” Ms. Bryne says. “We have seen what the NDP can do. In Ontario, we remember what happened when the NDP got hold of the reins of power: tens of thousands of jobs lost, an economy totally mismanaged, and skyrocketing taxes.”

She asks her supporters to “spread the message” about a coalition government and to take family members or friends to the polls. She notes the record turnout at the advance polls over the Easter weekend and attributes it to her opponents working hard to get out their vote.

“Now is not the time to rest,” she asserts. “As Conservatives we must buckle down and take this threat from our opponents seriously.”


Ms. Byrne's spin is correct:  the election is not over. But, I hope her message is getting through to more than just the Conservative Party faithful – the leader, Harper, and the candidates need to listen to her and they need to make a final push for votes.

Jane Taber's spin is also correct: many Tories are, I suspect, whistling past a graveyard. There is reason to fear that the decline, which I noted above, is too deeply entrenched to be reversed. It has been my view that if, now a Big IF, the Conservatives are returned with a larger (than 143 seats) minority then it will be difficult for the opposition parties to unite, in the face of the voters' clearly expressed preference for the Conservatives over any of them, even over any two of them, to defeat the government and install a coalition. But, if the Conservatives come back with a smaller minority and if, still a Big IF, either the Liberal or the NDP make really big gains then Canadians might accept a “second place” government, supported, formally, by the other losers. Thus, Conservative have reasons to worry.
 
GR66 said:
... the distaste which many traditional Liberal supporters have for Steven Harper personally may actually lead many Liberals to jump to the left if they see the LPC collapsing.  They may however just decide to stay home and see how things unfold.
...

ModlrMike said:
I wonder if the upswing in undecided voters represents Liberals who are now trying to decide which way to turn. It is those "former" Liberals that both Harper and Layton need to attract.


I think, or at least I hope think you are both on to something. My guess is that:

1. A very few Liberals will jump right to help Harper fend off the socialist hordes;
2. Some Liberals, more than the ones above, will jump left on to the Layton bandwagon; but
3. Even more Liberals are now deciding to sit this one out, again – having been let down by their leader twice in a row.
 
That's it, he's finally lost it. Iggy's spiral is now complete and can only get tighter and faster from this point on. His sprint to catch the front has left him out of breathe, battered and beat five days before the finish line. He's spent. He can't recover.

I prefer to listen to and watch the candidates. Their desperation (in some cases) or their calm and head down, one foot in front of the other demeanor is more telling than any poll. I find polls very suspect and don't put much stock in them. On the final day, polls have never been that accurate or mattered. Many times parties have shown meteoric rise, a la Layton, only to have that support completely evaporate at the voting booth. Voters are fickle and can't be depended on to do what the parties or the MSM want.

 
CAUTION

This web site will be a "news portal" on election night - rather like the TV networks. They, the TV networks and, for example, the newspaper web sites, are forbidden by law from broadcasting results until the polls close in BC. Those "news portals" that break the rules are subject to criminal charges and large fines.

I ask all members to help Mike Bobbitt by obeying the law on 2 May 11 and keeping election results secret until the polls are closed in BC.

Thanks, in advance.
 
GAP said:
Combative Ignatieff says Tories can 'go to hell'
Published On Wed Apr 27 2011
I would say more scared than combative. Despite the Star's efforts to make their candidate look like some tough guy, the description comes across as one of sheer desperation.

As for "dealing with bullies his whole life".....I never realized the Harvard campus was that threatening  ::)
 
Journeyman said:
I would say more scared than combative. Despite the Star's efforts to make their candidate look like some tough guy, the description comes across as one of sheer desperation.

As for "dealing with bullies his whole life".....I never realized the Harvard campus was that threatening  ::)

Well, you know academics.  Waving those red pens in the air; making idle, incoherent chatter that masquerades as first-year courses; threatening to leave your publication off their reading lists... the atmosphere is pure poison.
 
A look at the Liberal implosion by a blogger (who is sadly supporting the Dippers):

http://skippy-posts.blogspot.com/2011/04/serenity-and-denial-michael-ignatieff.html

Serenity and denial: Michael Ignatieff and the fall of Berlin

So I got a robocall yesterday evening from Micheal Ignatieff his own self, a first in this campaign. I live in one of the safest Liberal constituencies in all of the Dominion. If my MP loses, the Liberal Party of Canada will be well and truly annihilated. There will be, simply put, nothing left. All will be lost and there will be nothing to rebuild.

Professor Ignatieff was kind enough to invite me to a rally at the Montecassino Hotel in the adjoining riding of York Centre tonight. And he's bringing a friend, the Right Honourable Jean Chretien, 20th Prime minister of Canada and the last guy to secure himself a majority government. That riding is represented by former leadership candidate and legendary goalie Ken Dryden, who is in deep, deep trouble.

Some history might be necessary here for my foreign readers. Chretien owed his reign to a divided Conservative movement that allowed him to dominate Ontario and win roughly half of Quebec's seats. It would have been extraordinarily difficult for him not to win a majority under those circumstances, although he nearly pulled it off in 1997. Even after the Progressive Conservative and Canadian Reform Alliance parties merged under the Conservative Party banner in 2003, the Grits still managed to hold all but two of Toronto's (area code 416) 24 ridings and the majority of the 905 belt surrounding the Center of the Universe.

If nothing else, that kept the Liberals competitive in Ontario. Even the hapless Stephane Dion managed to hold the Greater Toronto Area, which allowed the party to focus its resources elsewhere, although to little effect. Nearly a third of their seats are in 416 and the rest are in 905 and Montreal.

Long story short, if Ignatieff feels it absolutely necessary to bring Chretien into 416, they are fucked beyond repair and they know it. The apocalypse is upon them and there is no escape. Their bones are being crushed into dust nationally and there is little to no chance that they'll even remain as the Official Opposition in the next Parliament. Even when Paul Martin and Dion were busy losing, they kept the le petit gars de Shawinigan as far away from Toronto as possible. Chretien himself rarely campaigned here as prime minister, since his presence was wholly unnecessary and therefore a giant waste of time and resources.

They're fighting for their lives in 416 itself now. Reasonable people fully expect the Grits to lose both Dryden's York Centre seat and the neighboring riding of Eglinton-Lawrence. This is the political equivalent of the final defense of Berlin from marauding Soviet troops in April of 1945 and I now expect it to end about the same way. Once those ridings fall, all that's left is the Hitler's bunker of downtown Toronto, and the NDP Power Twins, Jack Layton and Olivia Chow, already hold two of those seats. Not only do the Grits have to worry about a Tory incursion into the north west of 416, the NDP could very well retake Parkdale-High Park. If that happens, Iggy's own riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore could be at risk. I'm actually shocked that the Ford brothers haven't been working their backyard hard for Harper. That could start a pincer movement that could drive the federal Liberals directly into Lake Ontario in the very near future.

Besides bringing Chretien into Fortress Toronto, Iggy appears to have written off British Columbia, leaving it for the Conservatives and New Democrats to fight over. The map is finally too daunting for anyone to ignore. Worse, Canada's most reliable pollster, Nik Nanos, has (albeit belatedly) confirmed the NDP surge (PDF.) Layton's New Democrat's are ahead of the Liberals nationally and well within the margin of error in Ontario, jumping four points here over the weekend.

So how is the national Liberal campaign responding? By pretending that it isn't happening is how.

    Despite a surge of NDP support in Quebec and an apparent decline in Liberal support in Ontario, the head of the national Liberal campaign has informed top strategists the party will execute its original campaign plan even though there are reports of nervous party troops and indications Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff remains unpopular at the doorsteps in some regions of the country.

    In the aftermath of two public opinion polls that had by Tuesday found the NDP passing the Liberals nationally and surging past all three main parties to take the lead in voter preference in Quebec, a senior member of the party’s campaign in Ontario told The Hill Times that—other than strategic changes to its arsenal of attack ads and normal adjustments to campaigns in close riding races and swing ridings—national campaign director Gordon Ashworth told top levels of the Liberal team the battle plan remains the same.

    “Obviously the campaign team is engaged every day and so there are phone calls, but I can tell you Gordon Ashworth, who is in charge of the campaign, he put very aptly, ‘Some time ago we developed a plan, we put that plan in place and we’ve executed it well and we continue to execute the plan because it really is about bringing forward a platform that addresses the needs of middle-class Canadians, the average Canadian, and we’re not deviating from that,’” Jeff Kehoe, one of the party’s three co-chairs of the Ontario portion of the campaign, quoted Mr. Ashworth as telling the campaign overseers following the stunning events over the past week.

If the Liberal campaign is feeling what The Hill article quotes as a "feeling of serenity on the ground," they're in full-blown denial. Hitler knew that the jig was up by the time he was driven into the bunker, but Gordon Ashworth apparently doesn't.

Mr. Ashworth's strategy was always half-crazed and premised on his perception that voters are even dumber than I  think they are, which happens to be plenty. The strategy, as far as I can determine, was to run against the Harper record, unify the left-leaning vote and peel off enough soft Tory support to deny the Conservatives a majority. If the Conservatives had a reduced minority government and if the Grits picked up a dozen or so seats, they could then defeat the government in a confidence vote this spring and form an accord with the Layton New Democrats.

That was flawed to the point of absurdity because, as I've mentioned before, Harper's record is the Liberal record. Dion and Ignatieff kept the Conservative minority afloat several hundred times in the last five years. It appears that the voters concluded that if they absolutely must unify around an opposition party, it may as well be one that actually opposed something from time to time, which is how the NDP surge was born.

If the NDP displaces the Liberals as the Official Opposition, or even comes close to it, the Liberals are effectively finished. If Ignatieff winds up losing seats, especially in Toronto, he'll be beheaded by his own party on election night next Monday, which leaves the Grits leaderless and in the throes of a leadership campaign.

Assuming that there even is a Conservative minority (which is getting harder to do every day,) defeating them on a confidence motion would require the Governor General to decide whether to invite a coalition or an accord to assume government or to hold yet another election. That would require some kind of assurance that said coalition could hold for at least two years. I don't know how a leaderless Liberal Party can make such an assurance to David Johnston.

There are also large swaths of the Liberal Party that want nothing to do with the NDP, and that segment of the party can be expected to run for the leadership. Or there might be sufficient opposition in caucus to defeat the idea outright.

Barring a coalition or an accord, another election would utterly break a bankrupt Liberal Party and English Canada would be divided up between the NDP and the Tories, almost certainly resulting in a massive Conservative majority.

After spending weeks asking the question, no one has been able to tell me why Jack Layton would even want to get into bed with the Grits. As I've explained before, it isn't in his strategic interest. Harper's fear-mongering about a coalition is adorable, but it assumes that Layton is stupid enough to still be afraid of the Liberals at this point. He pretty clearly isn't, and seems to know that if he just waits a few months, the Grits will collapse all on their own, leaving him as the only credible alternative to the Tories.

Regardless of Monday's outcome, the Liberals won't be able to raise money (which is already a giant problem for them) or recruit halfway serious candidates (which they haven't focused all that much energy on anyway.) By Tuesday morning, anyone with any brains will see the future of the left in this country, and it isn't going to include the Liberals.

The Liberals who were behind or endorsed the merger or strategic cooperation talks last year never really thought through the consequences of what they were suggesting. Strategic cooperation, meaning that the two parties wouldn't run candidates against one another, would ruin both financially because they would be denied millions in the per-vote subsidy from Elections Canada.

Moreover, the merger idea was framed under the almost unbelievably arrogant Grit premise that the NDP would renounce all of their principles just to join a Liberal Party that was incapable of winning an election on their own and only got 28% of the vote in the previous campaign. And for their trouble, Jack Layton might have been named junior minister for dildo training, but only if he promised not to talk about dildos that much. It was such an insulting offer that it only could have come from a Liberal.

No, it had to come to pass this way. Even during their ascendancy, Reform-Canadian Alliance weren't so fucking haughty that they believed that they could merge with Progressive Conservative rump on their own terms. In fact, it was the Alliance that was crumbling, with a dozen of their members sitting as Independents because of Stockwell Day's reign of error. The Grits, on the other hand, honestly believe it is their natural birthright to govern this country, and they only grudgingly tolerate elections. There could never be a working agreement with the NDP so long as the Liberals thought that they had any kind of future at all.

Well, as of Monday, the window closes on that future. The Liberal Party of Canada will be halfway in the grave, and even they won't be so dumb as to not notice it. If these polls hold up for the next five days -  and there's now no reason to believe that they won't - the Grits will enter their final death spiral and likely won't survive the next election.

And you know what? I'm going to help bury them. I live in a riding where it doesn't matter who I vote for, and I've been denied my usual luxury of voting for an independent or minor party. So I'm going to do something that I never seriously thought I would.

I'm going to vote for the NDP.
 
For me, Joe Q Public, I would hope that my fellow Canadians would look to the TSX's nervousness about the NDP.  That has a direct threat/effect on my lower level of my Maslowian needs.  I mean, if corporation "A"'s shares bottom out, then my prices for my basic survival (food, heat, etc), go up.
 
Technoviking said:
For me, Joe Q Public, I would hope that my fellow Canadians would look to the TSX's nervousness about the NDP.  That has a direct threat/effect on my lower level of my Maslowian needs.  I mean, if corporation "A"'s shares bottom out, then my prices for my basic survival (food, heat, etc), go up.

Well that's just typical; what's in it for me?  Can't you see the bigger picture?  All the shiftless 3rd gen dole pineapples need to be taken care of too, ya know.  What about their right to sit on their arses watching their 62" plasma waiting for the cheque to roll in?  SOMEBODY has to pay for it, might as well be you.
 
The Cdn media had a big role in this possible mess. Relentlessly demonizing Harper at every opportunity, ignoring the NDP policies other than the occasional feel good pieces about Jack, pushing Iggy.

The lack of ethics, professionalism, and untruths. Well, now it is going to possibly come back and bit Canada on the ***. A bunch of nobodys.

[size=14pt]Stupid[/size] people in my Condo don't like Harper's eyes!!!!!
 
Latest CPC ad based on Prime Minister Harper's "five year anniversary speech" is very stirring, an appeal to patriotism and what is the best in Canada. Imagine if that stirring imagery had been in play since the start of the election (or even before when they were preparing the battlespace)

The voiceover in the ad (the Prime Minister speaking) goes like this:

http://www.youtube.com/user/cpcpcc?blend=23&ob=5

Canada is, and always has been, our country. And we want Canada to be a true north that is as strong and as free as it can be, in every way that matters, the best country in the world! That’s why we’re here. That’s why we strive. That’s why we serve.

Canada must reflect the true character of its people. Honourable in our dealings. Faithful to our commitments. Loyal to our friends. By turns a courageous warrior and a compassionate neighbour. That is the spirit of the Canada I know.

It is our purpose, that Canada must be great. It must be great for all Canadians. It must be a country of hope, and an example to the world. Only when it is these things, when Canada is all that it can be, only then can we say that our work is done!

Full speech is available here
 
Technoviking said:
For me, Joe Q Public, I would hope that my fellow Canadians would look to the TSX's nervousness about the NDP.  That has a direct threat/effect on my lower level of my Maslowian needs.  I mean, if corporation "A"'s shares bottom out, then my prices for my basic survival (food, heat, etc), go up.

I hate to burst this bubble, Technoviking, but the TSX's nervousness has nothing to do with the Dippers rise. The Market knows the Liberal set back only means more chances of a stable majority Conservative government in the near future.

The nervousness is totally related to Bernake's press conference in the US yesterday.

Bernake basically confirmed that the Feds wont raise the rates in the US for a while. As a result, Canada can't either. But right now, the price and demand for commodities such as oil, gold and silver are sky high - and they are all important Canadian exports - so our dollar goes sky high also. Problem is, it then raises the relative prices of our manufactured products (still the main engine of modern economies, notwithstanding what some may say), which explains why our manufactured goods exports have dropped a lot in the last few months. With the US not moving on rates, the Bank of Canada is deprived of the leeway it would need to bring our dollar down regardless of commodities price pressure. That is what is causing the nervousness on the TSX, not the election.
 
 
It isn't necessary for the CPC to take a step to the left; the LPC and BQ already provide that service to the NDP.  It would be unwise for the CPC to take that step; it is a battleground of Layton's choosing and both Dion and Ignatieff were suckered into a prepared KZ.  All that remains is the pursuit.

Dion, especially, forgot two things: to never take what your enemy offers, and that the NDP is not the LPC's friend.  Ignatieff's latest remarks show a disinclination to surrender and a realization that the NDP is not a safe haven.  It would have been interesting to see Bob Rae in Ignatieff's position now.

The most useful likely outcome of this election will be to render the BQ impotent, or at least significantly weaker as a bargaining partner in Parliament.  If the LPC prolongs its foolishness, it will surrender to the NDP - that bridge has been prepared, and now some pundits are giving voice to the "opinion pieces" intended to provide the push.  If the LPC comes to its senses, it will temporarily become a vassal of the CPC in Parliament while rebuilding its centrist core and pruning the left-leaning branches.  The latter should include Bob Rae.
 
Brad Sallows said:
It isn't necessary for the CPC to take a step to the left; the LPC and BQ already provide that service to the NDP.  It would be unwise for the CPC to take that step; it is a battleground of Layton's choosing and both Dion and Ignatieff were suckered into a prepared KZ.  All that remains is the pursuit.

Dion, especially, forgot two things: to never take what your enemy offers, and that the NDP is not the LPC's friend.  Ignatieff's latest remarks show a disinclination to surrender and a realization that the NDP is not a safe haven.  It would have been interesting to see Bob Rae in Ignatieff's position now.

The most useful likely outcome of this election will be to render the BQ impotent, or at least significantly weaker as a bargaining partner in Parliament.  If the LPC prolongs its foolishness, it will surrender to the NDP - that bridge has been prepared, and now some pundits are giving voice to the "opinion pieces" intended to provide the push.  If the LPC comes to its senses, it will temporarily become a vassal of the CPC in Parliament while rebuilding its centrist core and pruning the left-leaning branches.  The latter should include Bob Rae.


:+1:

Exactly! The Conservatives now have a firm grip on the Centre-Right and Right of Centre and a fair share of the Centre, proper. They do not want or need to play in the Centre-Left - leave that to everyone else.

Let some Liberals come to the CPC, not vice versa.
 
Nik on the Numbers

Please note that this three day tracking report is based on polling completed on April 24, 26 and 27. No calling was conducted by Nanos on Easter Monday and this track includes one day of calling from the holiday weekend, plus calling on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Momentum in the federal election campaign continues to favour the NDP. Support for the Layton New Democrats continues to go up in Quebec and is now also on the increase in the province of Ontario. As a result, the Conservative advantage nationally has narrowed to six percentage points. Support for the New Democrats continues to move into uncharted territory.

Conservative support nationally stands at 36.6% followed by the NDP at 30.4%, the Liberals at 21.9%, the BQ at 6.0% and the Greens at 4.1%.

Atlantic Canada remains a statistical tie factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-samples.

NDP support in Quebec has hit 42.5% followed by the BQ at 25.1%, the Liberals at 15.0%, the Conservatives at 13.5% and the Greens at 2.4%.

West of the Ottawa River the Tories continue to enjoy an advantage over the opposition parties.

In Ontario, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals and New Democrats, but support for the Tories is trending down while the NDP is trending up. The Tories have 41.1% support, followed by the Liberals at 27.9%, the NDP at 26.1% and the Greens at 4.5%.

The Tories continue to lead in the Prairies at 53.8%, followed by the NDP at 26.0%, the Liberals at 14.6% and the Greens at 4.9%.

In British Columbia, the Tories are ahead with 45.3% support with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied (26.9% and 23.1% respectively).

One of two Canadians continues to identify party platform as their top vote driver at 49.0%, followed by party leader at 26.0% which is trending up.

Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

  Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.


  National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 26th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1020). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).

Canada (n=1012 committed voters)
Conservative 36.6% (-1.2)
NDP 30.4% (+2.6)
Liberal 21.9% (-1.0)
Bloc Quebecois 6.0% (+0.2)
Green 4.1% (-0.6)

*Undecided 15.8% (+0.9)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 26th (n=1,200).

Party Policies 49.0% (-0.2)
Party Leader 26.0% (+2.0)
Local Candidate 13.0% (-1.1)
Traditionally Vote for Party 7.7% (-0.2)
Unsure 4.4% (-0.3)


 
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